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A study on forecasting provinces-specific fertility for Korea (시도별 출산력 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Soon-Young;Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.229-263
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    • 2019
  • The Korean fertility rate has been declining rapidly since 2000 with the fertility rate among provinces following a uniform tendency. In particular, the province-specific fertility rate is an essential tool for local governments to prepare local policies for low fertility aging policy, education and welfare policies. However, there is limitation on how to reflect different trends on the province-specific fertility rate because the KOSTAT's (2017) province-specific fertility rate projection estimates information use the national average birth rate date of vital statistics for the last 10 years (5 years). In this study, we propose an improvement plan that simultaneously considers important stable pattern maintenance and provincial fertility rate differentiation for an annual birth rate estimation. The method proposed in this study (proposal 1 and 2) can reflect birth rate changes from past to present and national and provincial differences by age that use time series data of the annual fertility rate. Proposal 3 also reflects the unique fertility rate trend from the past to the present by age according to province regardless of the relationship with the national trend. Therefore, it is preferable to use a relationship to the national rate when predicting the birth rate, as in proposals 1 and 2 because the national and the provincial fertility rate pattern are similar. These proposals show improved stability in terms of age-specific fertility rates.

Forecast and identifying factors on a double dip fertility rate for Korea (더블딥 출산율 요인 규명과 향후 추이)

  • Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.463-483
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    • 2019
  • Since 2000, Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) has been different from that of Japan, Germany, and France where irreversible constants do not change easily in the fertility rate increasing or decreasing phase. It also showed a gradual increase from the minimum fertility level 1.08 in 2005 to 1.23 in 2015, which dropped to 1.17 in 2016, to 1.05 in 2017 and to 0.98 in 2018. This is similar to a double dip in the economic status of a recession. This paper investigates such a TFR increase and decrease factor that predicts the number of births affecting TFR, examines trends in the proportion of married and marital fertility rate broken down by TFR decomposition method. We also examined how these changes affect the change in TFR. According to the results, the number of births is estimated to be between 320 and 330 thousand in 2018, 300 thousand in 2020, 230 and 240 thousand in 2025. The proportion of married is steadily decreasing from 1981 to 2025, and the marital fertility rate is predicted to decline until 2002, then increase from 2003 to 2016 and decrease from 2017 to 2025. Finally, the trend of TFR in terms of number of births, TFR decomposition and statistical model is expected to show 0.98 in 2018, 0.93 to 1.11 in 2020 and 0.76 to 1.08 in 2025.

Stochastic projection on international migration using Coherent functional data model (일관성 함수적 자료모형을 활용한 국제인구이동의 확률적 예측)

  • Kim, Soon-Young;Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.517-541
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    • 2019
  • According to the OECD (2015) and UN (2017), Korea was classified as an immigration country. The designation as an immigration country means that net migration will remain positive and international migration is likely to affect population growth. KOSTAT (2011) used a model with more than 15 parameters to divide sexes, immigration and emigration based on the Wilson (2010) model, which takes into account population migration factors. Five years later, we assume the average of domestic net migration rate for the last five years and foreign government policy likely quota. However, both of these results were conservative estimates of international migration and provide different results than those used by the OECD and UN to classify an immigration country. In this paper, we proposed a stochastic projection on international migration using nonparametric model (FDM by Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and Coherent FDM by Hyndman et al. (2013)) that uses a functional data model for the international migration data of Korea from 2000-2017, noting the international migration such as immigration, emigration and net migration is non-linear and not linear. According to the result, immigration rate will be 1.098(male), 1.026(female) in 2018 and 1.228(male), 1.152(female) in 2025 per 1000 population, and the emigration rate will be 0.907(male), 0.879(female) in 2018 and 0.987(male), 0.959(female) in 2025 per 1000 population. Thus the net migration is expected to increase to 0.191(male), 0.148(female) in 2018 and 0.241(male), 0.192(female) in 2025 per 1000 population.

Antioxidant and Anti-inflammatory Effects of Ethanol Extract of Aster yomena in RAW 264.7 Macrophages (RAW 264.7 대식세포에서 쑥부쟁이 추출물의 항산화 및 항염증 효능에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung Ok;Jeong, Ji-Suk;Choi, Yung Hyun
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.29 no.9
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    • pp.977-985
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    • 2019
  • Aster yomena (Kitam.) Honda is an edible vegetable and perennial herb belonging to the Asteraceae family, and has been used for a long time for the prevention and treatment of various diseases. Although leaf extracts of A. yomena are known to have antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects, accurate efficacy assessments are still inadequate. In this study, we investigated whether the antioxidant efficacy of ethanol extract of A. yomena leaf (EEAY) is correlated with the anti-inflammatory effect in RAW 264.7 macrophages. The results showed that EEAY significantly inhibited the hydrogen peroxide ($H_2O_2$)-induced growth inhibition in RAW 264.7 cells, which was associated with increased expression of nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor-2 (Nrf2) and heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). EEAY pretreatment also effectively prevented $H_2O_2$-induced reactive oxygen species generation and apoptosis through inhibition of caspase-3 activation and poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase degradation. Additionally, EEAY significantly increased the expression and production of interleukin-10, a representative anti-inflammatory cytokine, which was associated with increased expression of toll-like receptor 4 and myeloid differentiation factor 88 at transcriptional and translational levels. Furthermore, the increased production of nitric oxide (NO) by lipopolysaccharide was markedly abolished under the condition of EEAY pretreatment, and the inhibitory effect of NO production by EEAY was further increased by hemin, an HO-1 inducer. Overall, our results suggest that EEAY is able to activate the Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathway to protect RAW 264.7 macrophages from oxidative and inflammatory stress.

Varying Effects of Artificial Light on Plant Functional Metabolites (인공광 이용에 따른 작물의 기능성 물질의 차별적 증가)

  • Kim, Yang Min;Sung, Jwa Kyung;Lee, Ye Jin;Lee, Deog Bae;Yoo, Chul Hyun;Lee, Seul Bi
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2019
  • BACKGROUND: Many studies on artificial lighting have been recently performed to investigate its effect on agricultural products with good quality. This review was aimed at comparing the effects of artificial light on functional metabolites of the plants that were grown in greenhouses and growth chamber. METHODS AND RESULTS: It has been summarized that artificial lighting both in growth chambers and greenhouses caused different functional metabolites patterns depending on light quality. Even though the same light quality was applied, different patterns in metabolites were observed in different plant species. For the same species, supplementation of the same light quality in both growth chambers and greenhouses did cause different functional metabolites patterns. CONCLUSION: Artificial lighting caused different patterns in functional metabolites of plants grown in greenhouses and growth chambers, depending on the light quality and/or plant species. The manipulation of plant growth and functional metabolites would be possible by engineering the light qualities, but knowledge on proper lighting condition depending on plant species and growth places would be necessary.

Development of Standard Method for Quality Innovation to Strengthen Global Competitiveness and Create Management Performance of Small and Medium-sized Manufacturing Firms (중소 제조기업의 글로벌 품질경쟁력 강화 및 경영성과 창출을 위한 품질혁신 표준방법론 개발)

  • Park, Jong Kab;Kim, Youn Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.843-862
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop quality innovation techniques specialized for the small and medium-sized businesses. which account for the majority of Korean companies, were having a hard time utilizing the widely recognized quality innovation techniques due to resource constraints. Methods: First, we do review the existing Single PPM and 6 Sigma. And investigate the utilization of these methods including Toyota Production System. Second, we devised a four-step problem-solving methodology based on recent trends in quality innovation such as Simple, Speedy, and Smart. Third, we do survey on frequently used tools for quality innovation. Many opinion leaders including quality consultants and professors answered and gave us valuable comments about our selected quality tools. Finally, we do specify and map tools to each step of PASS. Results: In 2017, 167 companies participated in the quality innovation support business for small businesses according to the Korea Chamber of Commerce & Industry. We conducted performance checks on 167 companies that had completed the "PASS" projects. For the purpose of evaluating improvement performance, the survey was carried out using a structured questionnaire during the field visit of these companies mentioned above. For the reference, 165 out of 167 companies (98.8 % response rate) responded to the questionnaire and conducted performance analysis based on it. According to the survey, 97.6 percent of the respondents were very satisfied with their overall satisfaction with the quality innovation support projects for small and medium sized enterprises in 2017. Also, 93.3 % of the respondents were satisfied with the results of level of the target achievement. As a result, 160 companies (97.0 % of the participating companies) hope to partic ipate in the quality improvement project using "PASS" once again. Conclusion: In this paper, we introduce the new quality innovation methodology, which is named as 'PASS', It could support the long-range business plan of the small and medium-sized businesses to achieve total customer satisfaction resulting in increased market share and improved profit margin. The most small companies can use this "PASS" technique more easily, quickly and most efficiently than their existing known quality innovation techniques such as Six Sigma and Single PPM, etc.

Brief Review on the preparation of N-doped TiO2 and Its Application to Photocatalysis (질소 도핑 티타니아의 제조와 광촉매 활용의 연구동향)

  • Oh, Kyeongseok;Hwang, Duck Kun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.331-337
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    • 2019
  • Titania has become the most applicable material for photocatalytic application. Nevertheless, titania has the weak point in its wide band gap energy that is mainly activated by UV irradiation. There have been vast research challenges in order to make the wide band gap energy of titania narrow that could be activated in the presence of visible light. Various modifications of titania surface were popular because titania needs to change its surface to respond in visible light. Among the methodological approaches, N-doping to titania can be the alternative candidate because it is facile process and eco-friendly. The activated electron from valence band in N-doped $TiO_2$ migrates to conduction band in the presence of visible light irradiation, which shows photocatalytic activity as well. In this study, focused on the evaluation of nitrogen state after N-doping through brief review. Arguments are still existed in nitrogen states and their different effects on photocatalytic activity. In particular, two nitrogen states are generally reported; substitutional and interstitial states. The research articles regarding N-doped $TiO_2$ are continuously appearing because the potential application of water split in visible light is still fascinate. The future of N-doped $TiO_2$ is also presented by referrals based on various literature.

Analysis of Efficiency of Recombinant pOPINEneo-3C-GFP Vector with p53 Tumor Suppression Gene Inserted (p53 암억제 유전자가 삽입된 재조합 pOPINEneo-3C-GFP 벡터의 효율 분석)

  • Sa, Young-Hee;Choi, Chang-Shik;Lee, Ki Hwan;Hong, Seong-Karp
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.533-536
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    • 2019
  • Recombinant baculoviruses are widely used to express heterologous genes in cultured insect cells. Recombinant baculoviruses can serve as gene-transfer vectors for expression of recombinant proteins in a wide range of mammalian cell types. Baculovirus system has significant benefits in view of safety, large-scale, and high level of gene expression. In this study, baculoviral vectors which were reconstructed from pOPINEneo-3C-GFP vector, were recombined with cytomegalovirus (CMV) promoter, green fluorescent protein (GFP), and p53 with NcoI and XhoI. These recombinant vectors were infected with various cells and cell lines. The baculovirus vector thus developed was analyzed by comparing the metastasis and expression of the recombinant genes with conventional vectors. These results suggest that the baculovirus vector has higher efficiency in metastasis and expression than the control vector. This work was supported by a grant from Mid-Career Researcher Program(NRF-2016R1A2B4016552) through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(MSIP).

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A Study on Planning of Korean Convergence Housing Complex's Residential Culture. -Focused on Segwon Jeong's Improved Hanok Planning- (한국형 융합 집합주거문화 계획 연구 -정세권의 개량한옥 계획을 대상으로-)

  • Choi, Ho-Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2019
  • The Study aims at carrying out basic research on the future housing culture plan by the aging and low fertility phenomenon which is the most serious problem that Korean society faces today. In the future, the housing culture will be transformed into a 'convergence housing complex's residential culture' that can be coexisted with households with various members, rather than a housing type represented by apartments today, due to the phenomenon of nuclear family and the increase of one resident. In this regard, this study is a basic study on the housing complex culture of Korea. It is not that the hosing complex culture has been imported from the western society today, but the Korean traditional housing complex's culture proposed by Korean first developer Segwon Jeong has already existed in Korea urban and architectural perspective. In the early 20th century, Segwon's improved Hanok planned to complement the disadvantages of the existing hanok and the modernization of hanok such as the standardization of hanok, moreover the most important point is the beginning of the Korean style housing complex by modernization of the inner space of hanok. It is expected that this study for Segwon's housing complex of improved hanok will provide important basic data for the Korean-style convergence residential culture plan needed for our society in the future.

Frequent Origin-Destination Sequence Pattern Analysis from Taxi Trajectories (택시 기종점 빈번 순차 패턴 분석)

  • Lee, Tae Young;Jeon, Seung Bae;Jeong, Myeong Hun;Choi, Yun Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.461-467
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    • 2019
  • Advances in location-aware and IoT (Internet of Things) technology increase the rapid generation of massive movement data. Knowledge discovery from massive movement data helps us to understand the urban flow and traffic management. This paper proposes a method to analyze frequent origin-destination sequence patterns from irregular spatiotemporal taxi pick-up locations. The proposed method starts by conducting cluster analysis and then run a frequent sequence pattern analysis based on identified clusters as a base unit. The experimental data is Seoul taxi trajectory data between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. during one week. The experimental results present that significant frequent sequence patterns occur within Gangnam. The significant frequent sequence patterns of different regions are identified between Gangnam and Seoul City Hall area. Further, this study uses administrative boundaries as a base unit. The results based on administrative boundaries fails to detect the frequent sequence patterns between different regions. The proposed method can be applied to decrease not only taxis' empty-loaded rate, but also improve urban flow management.