• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical Probability

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The effect of design factors on product design preference in concept testing (컨셉테스팅에서 제품디자인선호에 대한 디자인요소들의 영향)

  • 양종열
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2001
  • In the new product development process, concept testing which screens ideas with the highest probability of market success is very effective in predicting the success of a new product. However, designers do not have accurate guidelines in new product development because the structure of cause and effect of consumers' preference - the most important part of concept testing - has not been provided as quantitative data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present guidelines for new product concept development through applying means-end chain theory and product form theory which explains what kinds of benefits cause consumers to purchase a product and what kinds of design attributes meet the benefits. In this study, after reviewing means-end chain theory and product form theory, and developing a research model, guidelines for a concept product development (TV are provided through an empirical study.

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A Ship-Valuation Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션방법을 이용한 선박가치 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Suk;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Nam, Jong-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2015
  • This study utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the time charter rate of vessels, the three-month Libor interest rate, and the ship demolition price, to mitigate future uncertainties involving these factors. The simulation was performed 10,000 times to obtain an exact result. For the empirical analysis - based on considerations in ordering ships in 2010-a comparison between the Monte Carlo simulation-based stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) method and traditional DCF methods was made. The analysis revealed that the net present value obtained through Monte Carlo simulation was lower than that obtained via regular DCF methods, alerting the owners to risks and preventing them from placing injudicious orders for ships. This research has implications in reducing the uncertainties that future shipping markets face, through the use of a stochastic DCF approach with relevant variables and probability methods.

Reliability-Based Managing Criteria for Cable Tension Force in Cable-stayed Bridges (신뢰성에 기초한 사장교 케이블 장력 관리기준치 설정)

  • Cho, Hyo-Nam;Kang, Kyung-Koo;Cha, Cheol-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a methodology for the determination of optimal managing criteria for cable tension force in cable-stayed bridges using acceleration data acquired by monitoring system. There are many long span bridges installed with monitoring system in Korea. The monitoring systems are installed to diagnose abnormal behavior or damages in bridges and to warn these to bridge management agency. In cable-stayed bridges, the cable tension force could be an important indicator of abnormal behavior because of the geometric configuration of the cable-stayed bridge. If the management value of cable tension force is set too high or too low, then the monitoring system could not warn properly for the abnormal behavior of a bridge. Generally, the management value is set by empirical or engineering judgment, but in this paper, a new methodology for the determination of managing criteria for cable tension force is proposed based on the probability distribution model for tension force and reliability analysis. The proposed methodology is applied to a real concrete cable-stayed bridge in order to investigate its applicability.

Determinants of Shopping Experience for Mall Shoppers: Empirical Investigation in an Emerging City of Raipur (India)

  • Singh, Harvinder;Prashar, Sanjeev;Agarwal, Rashmi;Sharma, Tarun Kumar
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2014
  • Shopping malls have become key players in the Indian retail space. Even in upcoming Indian towns, malls have been mushrooming. Raipur, the capital city of the Indian state of Chhattisgarh has witnessed the growth over the last few years. However, this unplanned growth of malls in cities is expected to lead to oversupply of mall space in the near future, making things difficult for mall developers. The study is an attempt to identify appropriate strategies for mall developers to iron out such kinks. This paper presents 'shopping experience' as a tool to compete, succeed and explore its composition in terms of its constituent factors. The paper uses Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) on a non-probability sample of 350 respondents. It condenses a set of twenty-two mall variables into five factors that directly influence the shopping experience. These factors included ambience, infrastructure, marketing focus, convenience and safety and security. In terms of significance, shoppers assigned different weightage to each of these factors. The study shed light on interesting insights regarding the expectations of mall shoppers in the city of Raipur. The results though interesting, may be extended to different social, economic and geographic contexts to check the universality. While strategizing, mall developers must assign proportionate effort on the factors based on the respective contribution to shopping experience. In light of intensifying competition in Raipur, the study is significant for future prospects of malls. In the absence of a scientific and objective basis, the developers run risk of making wrong investment and management decisions. This paper is a useful addition to the body of knowledge on management of shopping malls in India and is unique in terms of its focus on mall shoppers in the smaller Indian cities like Raipur.

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Dependence of solar proton events on X-ray flare peak flux, longitude, and impulsive time

  • Park, Jin-Hye;Moon, Yong-Jae;Lee, Dong-Hun
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.37.2-37.2
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    • 2009
  • In this study, we present a new empirical forecasting method of solar proton events based on flare parameters. For this we used NOAA solar energetic particle (SEP) events from 1976 to 2006 and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (> 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). The relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude. Using these results for prediction of proton flux, we divided the data into 6 subgroups depending on two parameters: (1) 3 longitude ranges (east, center, and west) and (2) flare impulsive times (long and short). For each subgroup, we make a linear regression between the X-ray flare peak flux and the corresponding proton peak flux. The result shows that the proton flux in the eastern region is much better correlated with the X-ray flux than that in the western region.

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The Determinants of Fisheries Firms' Capital Structure : Comparative Analysis of Financing Behavior in Pre and Post the Asian Financial Crisis (수산기업의 자본구조 결정 요인에 대한 실증분석: 외환위기 전후의 자본조달 행태 비교)

  • Nam, Soo-Hyun;Lee, Kwang-Min;Hong, Jae-Bum
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2011
  • We try to find the determinants of fisheries firms' capital structure during the years from 1992 to 2007 in this paper. We also have a comparative analysis of capital raising behavior in pre and post-IMF financial crisis. Regression analysis is used for this empirical study. Dependent variable is leverage ratio and independent variables are firm size, operating risk, proportion of tangible asset, non-debt tax shield effect, sales growth ratio, profitability and dummy variable. We compared the characteristics of fisheries industry with that of manufacturing industy. The determinants of fisheries firms' capital structure and correlation between pre and post-IMF financial crisis are roughly same as the hypothses except a little difference. As a peculiar difference, corrlation between fisheries firms' operating risk and leverage ratio is (+) in the pre-IMF financial crisis, but (-) in the post-IMF financial crisis. Proportion of tangible asset has a (+) correlation with leverage ratio in pre and post-IMF financial crisis, but in case of manufacturing industy, (-) correlation shows in the pre-IMF financial crisis. Because, in the pre-IMF financial crisis, high proportion of tangible asset doesn't play a role of a collateral, but only increase the bankruptcy probability. Non-debt tax shield effect and leverage ratio have (-) correlation in all industry and all period, but only (+) correlation in case of fisheries industry in the pre-IMF financial crisis. Sales growth ratio has no significant relationship with leverage ratio in fisheries industry, and this is not coincide with our hypothsis. We have a limitation of the sample size of fisheries firms and sample period in this study. Further study is required to classify the fisheries industry with in-shore fisheries, deep sea fisheries and cold storage industry.

A Study on the Influence of Naval Power upon the Resolution of Maritime Territorial Disputes (해군력이 해양 영토분쟁의 해결에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Jong Hwan
    • Strategy21
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    • s.44
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    • pp.103-141
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    • 2018
  • As the South China Sea maritime dispute illustrates, when considering the place where maritime claims occur, states do not have many choices to respond to maritime claims in which disputed areas are located far away from the land and are surrounded by the sea. As Mearsheimer (2014) points out, the sea stops power projection. Therefore, in order to adopt coercive as well as peaceful settlement policies to deal with maritime claims, states need to overcome obstacles (the sea) to project power. It means that if states want to conduct a specific foreign policy action, such as negotiating maritime borderlines or arguing sovereignty on islands, they need a tool (naval power) to coerce or to persuade the opponent. However, there are lack of research that studies maritime claims from the perspective of naval power. This research project fills this gap based on naval power. How do relative levels of naval power and (dis) parities of naval power influence the occurrence of MIDs over maritime claims? Naval power is a constitutive element during maritime claims. If disputants over maritime claims have required naval power to project their capability, it means that they have the capability to apply various ways, such as aggressive options including MIDs, to accomplish their goals. So, I argue that when two claimants have enough naval power to project their capabilities, the likelihood of MIDs over maritime claims increases. Given that one or both states have a certain level of naval power, how does relative naval power between two claimants influence the management of maritime claims? Based on the power transition theory, I argue that when the disparities of relative naval power between claimants becomes distinctive, militarized conflicts surrounding maritime territory are less probable. Based on the ICOW project which codes maritime claims from 1900 to 2001, the empirical results of the Poisson models show if both claimants have projectable naval power, the occurrence of MIDs over maritime claims increases. In addition, the result shows that when disputants maintain similar relative naval powers, they are more likely to initiate MIDs over maritime claims. To put it differently, if naval capabilities' gap between two claimants becomes larger, the probability of the occurrence of MIDs decreases.

Feasibility Evaluation of High-Tech New Product Development Projects Using Support Vector Machines

  • Shin, Teak-Soo;Noh, Jeon-Pyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2005
  • New product development (NPD) is defined as the transformation of a market opportunity and a set of assumptions about product technology into a product available for sale. Managers charged with project selection decisions in the NPD process, such as go/no-go choices and specific resource allocation decisions, are faced with a complicated problem. Therefore, the ability to develop new successful products has identifies as a major determinant in sustaining a firm's competitive advantage. The purpose of this study is to develop a new evaluation model for NPD project selection in the high -tech industry using support vector machines (SYM). The evaluation model is developed through two phases. In the first phase, binary (go/no-go) classification prediction model, i.e. SVM for high-tech NPD project selection is developed. In the second phase. using the predicted output value of SVM, feasibility grade is calculated for the final NPD project decision making. In this study, the feasibility grades are also divided as three level grades. We assume that the frequency of NPD project cases is symmetrically determined according to the feasibility grades and misclassification errors are partially minimized by the multiple grades. However, the horizon of grade level can be changed by firms' NPD strategy. Our proposed feasibility grade method is more reasonable in NPD decision problems by considering particularly risk factor of NPD in viewpoints of future NPD success probability. In our empirical study using Korean NPD cases, the SVM significantly outperformed ANN and logistic regression as benchmark models in hit ratio. And the feasibility grades generated from the predicted output value of SVM showed that they can offer a useful guideline for NPD project selection.

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Promotion and Wage in the Internal Labour Market : Sexual Differences (기업내부노동시장의 승진과 임금: 성별 차이를 중심으로)

  • 금재호
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.181-211
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    • 2002
  • Using the fourth data of the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS), this paper analyzed sexual differences in the promotion possibility and the promotion experience. Effects on wage of the promotion possibility and the promotion experience have been also discussed in detail. The promotion probability of a male worker in his current job is as high as twice than that of a female worker after controlling other independent variables. However, if we restrict the analysis to workers who either can be or was promoted, the sexual difference in the promotion possibility is greatly narrowed. This result suggests that the continuous career development without disruption is critical for the promotion of female workers. Analysing the sexual difference in wage using Oaxaca and Ransom's methodology, explanatory variables, such as human capital, residential area, etc., explained 69.5% of wage difference between male and female workers. Especially, 13.9% of wage difference was contributed to sexual differences in the promotion possibility and the promotion experience. This kind of empirical result emphasized once again the importance of promotion on wage.

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Barriers and Policy Measures in Technological Innovation (기술혁신 장애요인이 지원제도 활용에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구)

  • Shin, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.81-107
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    • 2009
  • The Korean government provides a variety of supporting programs with firms to promote technological innovation which is a main driver of economic growth. The existing literature on technological innovation has mainly focused on analysis about determinants of successful innovation and effectiveness of a specific policy measure. However, there is no study deals with characteristics of policy demanders. For this, this study investigates the relationship between barriers and policy measures in technological innovation using the logistic regression analysis method with raw data of Korean Innovation Survey (KIS). The findings from this analysis show that barriers of technological innovation are meaningful variables to determining whether firms adopt a policy measure, although there are some differences according to policy types. Cost barriers increased the probability that firms adopt support programs regardless of policy types. Also, the more firms encounter cooperation barriers, the more likely firms utilize supporting programs in regard to technological advice and information.

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