• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.113 no.1
• /
• pp.40-50
• /
• 2024

Pine forests are continuously declining due to competition with broadleaf trees, such as oaks, as a consequence of changes in the natural dynamics of forest ecosystem. This natural decline creates a risk of losing the various benefits pine trees have provided to people in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare future forest management directions by considering the state of pine tree decline in each region. The goal of this study is to understand the characteristics of pine forest changes according to forest dynamics and to predict future regional changes. For this purpose, we evaluated the trend of change in pine forests and extracted various variables(topography, forest stand type, disturbance, and climate) that affect the change, using time-series National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Also, using selected key variables, a model was developed to predict future changes in pine forests. As a results, it showed that the importance of pine trees in forests across the country has decreased overall over the past 10 years. Also, 75% of the sample points representing pine trees remained unchanged, while the remaining 25% had changed to mixed forests. It was found that these changes mainly occurred in areas with good moisture conditions or disturbance factors inside and outside the forest. In the next 10 years, approximately 14.2% of current pine forests was predicted to convert to mixed forests due to changes in natural forest dynamics. Regionally, the rate of pine forest change was highest in Jeju(42.8%) and Gyeonggi(26.9%) and lowest in Gyeongbuk(8.8%) and Gangwon(13.8%). It was predicted that pine forests would be at a high risk of decline in western areas of the Korean Peninsula, including Gyeonggi, Chungcheong, and Jeonnam. This results can be used to make a management plan for pine forests throughout the country.