• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.35-77
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• 2023

This study aims to solve the entangled loop between demographic transition (DT) and economic growth by analyzing cross-country data. We undertake a national-level group analysis to verify the compressed transition of demographic variables over time. Assuming that the LA (latecomer advantage) on DT over time exists, we verify that the DT of the latecomer is compressed by providing a formal proof of LA on DT over income. As a DT has the double-kinked functions of income, we check them in multiple aspects: early maturation, leftward threshold, and steeper descent under a contour map and econometric methods. We find that the developing countries (the latecomer) have speedy DT (CDT, compressed DT) as well as speedy income such that DT of the latecomers starts at lower levels of income, lasts for a shorter period, and finishes at the earlier stage of economic development compared to that of developed countries (the early mover). To check the balance of DT, we classify countries into four groups of DT---balanced, slow, unilateral, and rapid transition countries. We identify that the main causes of rapid transition are due to the strong family planning programs of the government. Finally, we check the effect of latecomer's CDT on economic growth inversely: we undertake the simulation of the CDT effect on economic growth and the aging process for the latecomer. A worrying result is that the CDT of the latecomer shows a sharp upturn of the working-age population, followed by a sharp downturn in a short period. Compared to early-mover countries, the latecomer countries cannot buy more time to accommodate the workable population for the period of demographic bonus and prepare their aging societies for demographic onus. Thus, we conclude that CDT is not necessarily advantageous to developing countries. These outcomes of the latecomer's CDT can be re-interpreted as follows. Developing countries need power sources to pump up economic development, such as the following production factors: labor, physical and financial capital, and economic systems. As for labor, the properties of early maturation and leftward thresholds on DTs of the latecomer mean that demographic movement occurs at an unusually early stage of economic development; this is similar to a plane that leaks fuel before or just before take-off, with the result that it no longer flies higher or farther. What is worse, the property of steeper descent represents the falling speed of a plane so that it cannot be sustained at higher levels, and then plummets to all-time lows.

• The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.241-246
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• 2010

Field experiments were carried out to establish economic threshold for com borer (Ostrinia furnacalis (Guen$\'{e}$e)) on waxy com plants by examining the number of adult insects caught in pheromone traps and the injury levels of waxy com which were artificially controlled. Adult com borers were lured into the pheromone traps during the whole growth period in five areas in Gangwon province including Chuncheon. The number of com borers trapped was the greatest in Chuncheon followed by Cheolwon and Hongcheon, and the same trend was observed for injury level of waxy com. Based on marketable yield data of waxy com plants related to the artificially-controlled injury levels at tassel stage, spray threshold was determined as the injury level of 11~15%, where the injury of com plants exceeded the economically admitting level.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.395-400
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• 2008

Economic injury levels (EILs) and economic threshold (ET) were estimated for the two spider mite, Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari, Tetranychidae) on greenhouse eggplants. T. urticae density increased until the mid-July and thereafter decreased in all plots where initial density of the mite were different each 0, 2, 5, 10 and 20 adults per plant was innoculated on June 7. Growth variables of were not different among experimental plots but fruit weights were lower in plots with higher initial mite density than in plots with lower initial mite density. Total number of fruits and the number of marketable fruits decreased in plots with higher initial mite density. The rates of yield loss increased with increasing initial mite density, resulting in 0, 3.9, 11.3, 14.5, 22.8% reduction in each of the above plots, respectively. The relationship between initial T. urticae densities and yield losses was well described by a linear regression, Y = 1.085X + 2.474, $R^2$ = 0.9659. Based on the relationship, the number of adults per plant which can cause 5% loss of yield was estimated to be approximately 1.8.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.5-24
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• 2002

The purpose of this study is to analyze the distribution structure and the logistics system of light petroleum products from the spatial perspectives. The consumption structure of petroleum products has been changed since the mid 1980s. The growth rate of consumption for light products has been much faster than those of heavy products. The distribution structure of the petroleum products is hierarchically established by refining companies, agencies, and gas stations. The petroleum products agencies are distributed unevenly over the country, and the number of gas stations per one petroleum agency are very differentiated by the region. The light products are directly transported from refining factories to oil storages and then are carried to gas stations. According to the locational characteristics, oil storages which play a key role in the logistics system are categorized into three type. The first type is demand-oriented oil storages which are located near or in the large cities to supply the light petroleum products. The second type is harbors-oriented oil storages which are located within harbors. The third type is railway-oriented oil storages which are located along railway stations. In this study, the thresholds of one oil storage and one gas station are calculated based on the size of supply territory for each oil storage. The average number of population demand that allow a oil storage to stay in business is 1.9 million and average number of cars are 477,200.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.251-266
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• 2022

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of critical infrastructure comprises a major pillar of maintenance management, shielding public safety and economic sustainability. Although SHM is usually associated with data-driven metrics and thresholds, expert judgement is essential, especially in cases where erroneous predictions can bear casualties or substantial economic loss. Considering that visual inspections are time consuming and potentially subjective, artificial-intelligence tools may be leveraged in order to minimize the inspection effort and provide objective outcomes. In this context, timely detection of sensor malfunctioning is crucial in preventing inaccurate assessment and false alarms. The present work introduces a sensor-fault detection and interpretation framework, based on the well-established support-vector machine scheme for anomaly detection, combined with a coalitional game-theory approach. The proposed framework is implemented in two datasets, provided along the 1st International Project Competition for Structural Health Monitoring (IPC-SHM 2020), comprising acceleration and cable-load measurements from two real cable-stayed bridges. The results demonstrate good predictive performance and highlight the potential for seamless adaption of the algorithm to intrinsically different data domains. For the first time, the term "decision trajectories", originating from the field of cognitive sciences, is introduced and applied in the context of SHM. This provides an intuitive and comprehensive illustration of the impact of individual features, along with an elaboration on feature dependencies that drive individual model predictions. Overall, the proposed framework provides an easy-to-train, application-agnostic and interpretable anomaly detector, which can be integrated into the preprocessing part of various SHM and condition-monitoring applications, offering a first screening of the sensor health prior to further analysis.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.37-66
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• 2021

This paper examines the potential impacts of COVID-19 on poverty in ASEAN countries. The first estimate, adopted from Summer et al. (2020) and Nonvide (2020), configures three scenarios of contractions in per capita household income or consumption; the impact of each scenario on poverty is calculated using poverty lines at different thresholds. In the second estimate, poverty impacts in 2020 and 2021 were projected using regression models controlling for unobserved country effects, unbalanced data, and endogeneity. COVID-19 has been shown to have negative impacts on poverty reduction in the ASEAN Member States. To reduce poverty, concerted efforts are needed to implement policies for reducing income inequality and promoting economic growth. Such efforts will not only speed up the countries' return to pre-pandemic poverty levels but also contribute to further accelerating poverty reduction.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.97-108
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• 2015

This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.166-166
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• 2023

Compound hazards (CHs) are two or more extreme climate events combined which occur simultaneously in the same region at the same time. Compared to individual hazards, the combination of hazards that cause CHs can result in greater economic losses and deaths. While several extreme climate events have been recorded across Asia for the past decades, many studies have only focused on a single hazard. In this study, we assess the spatiotemporal pattern of dry compound hazards which includes drought, heatwave, fire and wind across Asia for the last 42 years (1980-2021) using the historical data from ERA5 Reanalysis dataset. We utilize a daily spatial data of each climate event to assess the occurrence of such compound hazards on a daily basis. Heatwave, fire and wind hazard occurrences are analyzed using daily percentile-based thresholds while a pre-defined threshold for SPI is applied for drought occurrence. Then, the occurrence of each type of compound hazard is taken from overlapping the map of daily occurrences of a single hazard. Lastly, a multivariate assessment are conducted to quantify the occurrence frequency, hotspots and trends of each type of compound hazard across Asia. By conducting a multivariate analysis of the occurrence of these compound hazards, we identify the relationships and interactions in dry compound hazards including droughts, heatwaves, fires, and winds, ultimately leading to better-informed decisions and strategies in the natural risk management.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.53 no.2
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• pp.93-96
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• 2014

This study was conducted to determine the economic injury levels and control thresholds for the striped cabbage flea beetle, Phyllotreta striolata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), on Chinese cabbage at two different planting times. The number of inoculated adults per 10 cabbages was 0, 2, 4, 8, and 16 at the early developmental stage of the cabbage5 days after planting) and 0, 10, 20, 30, and 40 at the middle developmental stage (30 days after planting). Damages to the leaves at the first inoculation were 2.5-21.1% and at the second inoculation were 1.8-26.3% after harvesting. The linear relationships between population density and yield reduction were as follows: Y = 1.3475X + 2.135 ($R^2$ = 0.8699) at the early developmental stage and Y = 0.703X - 1.78 ($R^2$ = 0.966) at the middle developmental stage. On the basis of these results, the economic injury levels caused 5% loss of yield; there were 2.1 adults per 10 Chinese cabbage at the early developmental stage and 9.6 adults per 10 Chinese cabbage at the middle developmental stage.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.83 no.4
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• pp.498-504
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• 1994

The damage by the black-tipped sawfly, Acantholyda posticalis posticalis Matsumura, has been incheasing at several locations in central part of the Korean peninsula. This study was undertaken at selected plots in locality of Kapyung-gun. Kyunggi Province from 1984 through 1987. The purpose of this study was to provide basic information for integrated control of this pest and to determine the economic threshold by investigating the pest-host interactions with special reference to damage analysis. The results obtained were as follows ; 1. One year old cone formation began to be reduced when 30-40% of the needles were destroyed. With 70% of defoliation, few cones were produced. 2. Number of two year old cone formation and amount of cones began to be reduced when 61-70% of the needles were destroyed ; economic threshold of the defoliation rate retarding the seed production was 51%. 3. Growth of the trees was significantly reduced when more than 50% of the needles were destroyed, and cone production began to be retarded at 30-40% of defoliation. Therefore, it was determined that the economic thresholds requiring the control practices to keep normal tree growth and cone production from being reduced were 50% and 30%, respectively.