• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic estimate

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Productivity and Density Control of Stands of Japanese Larch (일본잎갈나무 임분(林分)의 생산력(生產力)과 밀도관리(密度管理)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 1977
  • Japanese larch (Larix leptolepis) is one of main timber species in Korea that could find much plantation and growing stands on all over the country. It is thought to be in meaningful that a guiding diagram for density control of Japanese larch stands is made to estimate easily the density conditions in the quantitaive, ecological and economic viewpoint. Sample plots for this study are selected from the stands that have not been thinned in recent years, and mean height, mean diameter, dominant height, tree numbers per hectare and stem volume of mean tree are calculated from the each sample plots among total 165 plots In this study, especially, the theory of slenderness of mean tree are applied, that have been identified through the results of the spacing trial. Relative growth characteristics of this species are calculated from the general logistic curve and its formula is $Y=ax^b$. Relatwion between the measured items are found out as follows: 1. Relation between the mean height and tree numbers per hectare by slender class is showing the high correlation as table 1 and fig. 2, and between mean diameter and tree numbers per hectare is also high correlation as table 1 and fig 3. 2. The stem volume can be correctly estimated from height in case that slender class may be known, as showing in table 3 and fig. 4. 3. The stem volume can be more correctly estimated from the relation with $D^2H$ as formula, $Log_e\;V=0.9569\;Log_eD^2H-9.8431$, and relation between stem volume of single tree or volume per hectare and tree numbers per hectare are as following formulas: $Log_e$ stem volume=9.5026-1.6800 $Log_e$ tree numbers per hectare $Log_e$ stem volume per hectare=9.4911-0.6784 $Log_e$ tree numbers per hectare. Stem volume of mean tree, tree numbers per hectare and stem volume per hectare correspond to the mean tree height are calculated to slender class as table 5, 6, 7. Through the above steps, the diagram for density control of Japanese larch are produced as fig. 9. It is thought that this diagram could be applied to control the density of Japanese larch stands.

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Evaluation of Function of Upland Farming for Preventing Flood and Fostering Water Resources (밭농사의 수자원 함양과 홍수조절 기능에 대한 계량화 평가)

  • Hyun, Byung-Keun;Kim, Moo-Sung;Eom, Ki-Cheol;Kang, Ki-Kyung;Yun, Hong-Bae;Seo, Myung-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.163-179
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    • 2003
  • Multifunctionality of agriculture which is not traded on the market now has been an important international issue in that it environmental and public benefits. We carried out to modify and to update the function of upland farming on flood prevention and fostering water resources. Economic values of environmental benefits were evaluated by replacement cost methods. Models to evaluate the function of preventing flood were selected as: (1)precipitation(flood-inducing) - runoff(A), (2) soil depth ${\times}$ soil air phase, (3) precipitation (flood-inducing) - runoff(B), (4) soil depth ${\times}$ effective porosity of soil. Models to estimate the function of fostering water resources were (1) saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) ${\times}$ duration of saturation(days) ${\times}$ (1-ratio of water flow directly into river), (2) precipitation ${\times}$ ratio of water fostered by rain resources ${\times}$ (area of upland/total land area), and (3) soil water retention quantity(under standing crop or tree) - SWRQ(in bare soil). Function of preventing flood was $883Mg\;ha^{-1}$ of water per year and 645 million Mg for the whole upland area. Function of fostering water resources was $94.1Mg\;ha^{-1}$ of water per year and 69 million Mg for the whole upland area. The value of flood-preventing function evaluated by replacement cost methods was estimated 1,428 billion won per year as compared to the cost for dam construction. The value of water resource fostering were estimated 8.6 billion won in the price of living water.

A Study on Decision of Cut Rock Slope Angle Applied Shear Strength of Continuum Rock Mass Induced from Hoek-Brown Failure Criterion (Hoek-Brown 파괴기준에서 유도된 연속체암반의 전단강도를 적용한 깎기 암반사면 경사 결정 연구)

  • Kim, Hyungmin;Lee, Byokkyu;Woo, Jaegyung;Hur, Ik;Lee, Junki;Lee, Sugon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2019
  • There are many cuts or natural rock slopes that remain stable for a long time in the natural environment with steep slopes ($65^{\circ}$ to $85^{\circ}$). In terms of design practice, the rock mass consisting of similar rock condition and geological structures is defined as a good continuum rock slope, and during the process of decision making angle of this rock slope, it will be important to establish the geotechnical properties estimating method of the continuum rock on the process of stability analysis in the early stages of design and construction. In this study, the stability analysis of a good continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope proposed a practical method of estimating the shear strength by induced from the Hoek-Brown failure criterion, and in addition, the design applicability was evaluated through the stability analysis of steep rock slope. The existing method of estimating the shear strength was inadequate for practical use in the design, as the equivalent M-C shear strength corresponding to the H-B envelope changes sensitively, even with small variations in confining stress. To compensate for this problem, it was proposed to estimate equivalent M-C shear strength by iso-angle division method. To verify the design applicability of the iso-angle division method, the results of the safety factor and the displacement according to the change in angle of the cut slope constructed at the existing working design site were reviewed. The safety factor is FS=16~59 on the 1:0.5 slope, FS=12~52 on the 1:0.3 slope, most of which show a 10~12 percent reduction. Displacement is 0.126 to 0.975 mm on the 1:0.5 slope, 0.152 to 1.158 mm on the 1:0.3 slope, and represents an increase of 10 to 15%. This is a slightly change in normal proportion and is in good condition in terms of stability. In terms practical the working design, it was confirmed that applying the shear strength estimated by Iso-angle division method derived from the H-B failure criterion as a universal shear strength for a good continuum rock mass slope was also able to produce stable and economic results. The procedure for stability analysis using LEM (Limit Equilibrium Analysis Method) and FEM (Finite Element Analysis Method) will also be practical in the rock slope where is not distributed fault. The study was conducted by selecting the slope of study area as a good rock condition, establishing a verification for which it can be applied universal to a various rock conditions will be a research subject later on.

A Study on World University Evaluation Systems: Focusing on U-Multirank of the European Union (유럽연합의 세계 대학 평가시스템 '유-멀티랭크' 연구)

  • Lee, Tae-Young
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.187-209
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to highlight the necessity of a conceptual reestablishment of world university evaluations. The hitherto most well-known and validated world university evaluation systems such as Times Higher Education (THE), Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) or Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) primarily assess big universities with quantitative evaluation indicators and performance results in the rankings. Those Systems have instigated a kind of elitism in higher education and neglect numerous small or local institutions of higher education, instead of providing stakeholders with comprehensive information about the real possibilities of tertiary education so that they can choose an institution that is individually tailored to their needs. Also, the management boards of universities and policymakers in higher education have partly been manipulated by and partly taken advantage of the elitist ranking systems with an economic emphasis, as indicated by research-centered evaluations and industry-university cooperation. To supplement such educational defects and to redress the lack of world university evaluation systems, a new system called 'U-Multirank' has been implemented with the financial support of the European Commission since 2012. U-Multirank was designed and is enforced by an international team of project experts led by CHE(Centre for Higher Education/Germany), CHEPS(Center for Higher Education Policy Studies/Netherlands) and CWTS(Centre for Science and Technology Studies at Leiden University/Netherlands). The significant features of U-Multirank, compared with e.g., THE and ARWU, are its qualitative, multidimensional, user-oriented and individualized assessment methods. Above all, its website and its assessment results, based on a mobile operating system and designed simply for international users, present a self-organized and evolutionary model of world university evaluation systems in the digital and global era. To estimate the universal validity of the redefinition of the world university evaluation system using U-Multirank, an epistemological approach will be used that relies on Edgar Morin's Complexity Theory and Karl Popper's Philosophy of Science.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

Time-Series Analysis and Estimation of Prospect Emissions and Prospected Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Chungbuk (온실가스 배출량 시계열 분석과 전망 배출량 및 감축 감재량 추정 - 충북을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Okjin;Moon, Yun Seob;Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2022
  • In accordance with the enactment of 'the Paris Agreement' in 2015 and 'the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Response to the Climate Crisis' in 2021, each local government has set appropriate reduction target of greenhouse gas to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC, the reduction target of 40% compared to 2018) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. In this study, the current distribution of GHG emissions was analyzed in a time series centered on the Chungbuk region for the period from 1990 to 2018, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions in Chungbuk by 2030 based on the 2030 NDC and scenario. In addition, the prospected reduction by 2030 was estimated considering the projected emissions according to Busines As Usual in order to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions. Our results showed that GHG emissions in Chungbuk and Korea have been increasing since 1990 owing to population and economic growth. GHG emissions in 2018 in Chungbuk were very low (3.9 %) relative to the national value. Moreover, emissions from fuel combustion, such as cement and lime production, manufacturing and construction industries, and transportation industries, were the main sources. Furthermore, the 2030 target of GHG emission reduction in Chungbuk was set at 40.2% relative to the 2018 value, in accordance with the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon-zero national scenario. Therefore, when projected emissions were considered, the prospected reduction to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions was estimated to be 46.8% relative to 2018. The above results highlight the importance of meeting the prospected reduction of GHG emissions through reduction means in each sector to achieve the national and local GHG reduction target. In addition, to achieve the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon zero, the country and each local government, including Chungbuk, need to estimate projected emissions by year, determine reduction targets and prospect reductions every year, and prepare specific means to reduce GHG emissions.

Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

Test of Independence Between Variables to Estimate the Frequency of Damage in Heat Pipe (열수송관 파손빈도 추정을 위한 변수간 독립성 검정)

  • Myeongsik Kong;Jaemo Kang;Sungyeol Lee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2023
  • Heat pipes located underground in urban areas and operated under high temperature and pressure conditions can cause large-scale human and economic damage if damaged. In order to predict damage in advance, damage and construction information of heat pipe are analyzed to derive independent variables that have a correlation with frequency of damage, and a simple regression analysis modified model using each variable is applied to the field. However, as the correlation between independent variables applied to the model increases, the independence between variables is harmed and the reliability of the model decreases. In this study, the independence of the pipe diameter, burial depth, insulation level of monitoring system, and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line, which are judged to be interrelated, was tested to derive a method for combining variables and setting categories necessary to apply to the frequency of damage estimation model. For the test of independence, the continuous variables pipe diameter and burial depth were each converted into three categories, insulation level of monitoring system was converted into two categories, and the categorical variable disconnection or short circuit of the detection line status was kept as two categories. As a result of the test of independence, p-value between pipe diameter and burial depth, level of monitoring system and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line was lower than the significance level (α = 0.05), indicating a large correlation between them. Therefore, the pipe diameter and burial depth were combined into one variable, and the categories of the combined variable were set to 9 considering the previously set categories. The insulation level of monitoring system and the disconnection or short circuit of the detection line were also combined into one variable. Since the insulation level is unreliable when the detection line status is disconnection or short circuit, the categories of the combined variable were set to 3.

Spatial Distribution of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Assemblages in Wetlands of Jeju Island, Korea (제주도 일대 습지에 서식하는 저서성 대형무척추동물의 군집 분포 특성)

  • Yung Chul Jun;Seung Phil Cheon;Mi Suk Kang;Jae Heung Park;Chang Su Lee;Soon Jik Kwon
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2024
  • Most wetlands worldwide have suffered from extensive human exploitation. Unfortunately they have been less explored compared to river and lake ecosystems despite their ecological importance and economic values. This is the same case in Korea. This study was aimed to estimate the assemblage attributes and distribution characteristics of benthic macroinvertebrates for fifty wetlands distributed throughout subtropical Jeju Island in 2021. A total of 133 taxa were identified during survey periods belonging to 53 families, 19 orders, 5 classes and 3 phyla. Taxa richness ranged from 4 to 31 taxa per wetland with an average of 17.5 taxa. Taxa richness and abundance of predatory insect groups such as Odonata, Hemiptera and Coleoptera respectively accounted for 67.7% and 68.2% of the total. Among them Coleoptera were the most diverse and abundant. Taxa richness and abundance did not significantly differ from each wetland type classified in accordance with the National Wetland Classification System. There were three endangered species (Clithon retropictum, Lethocerus deyrolli and Cybister (Cybister) chinensis) and several restrictively distributed species only in Jeju Island. Cluster analysis based on the similarity in the benthic macroinvertebrate composition largely classified 50 wetlands into two major clusters: small wetlands located in lowland areas and medium-sized wetlands in middle mountainous regions. All cluster groups displayed significant differences in wetland area, long axis, percentage of fine particles and macrophyte composition ratio. Indicator Species Analysis selected 19 important indicators with the highest indicator value of Ceriagrion melanurum at 63%, followed by Noterus japonicus (59%) and Polypylis hemisphaerula (58%). Our results are expected to provide fundamental information on the biodiversity and habitat environments for benthic macroinvertebrates in wetland ecosystems, consequently helping to establish conservation and restoration plans for small wetlands relatively vulnerable to human disturbance.

Estimation of Breed and Environmental Effects on Economic Traits of Performance-Tested Pigs (검정소 검정돈의 품종 및 환경요인의 효과 추정)

  • Park, J.W.;Kim, B.W.;Kim, H.C.;Lee, K.W.;Choi, C.S.;Kang, W.G.;Hong, S.K.;Ha, J.K.;Jeon, J.T.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.923-932
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    • 2003
  • This study was carried out to estimate the effects of breed and environment such as sex, test station, test year, test season, parity, initial and final weight on average daily gain, age at 90kg, backfat thickness, feed efficiency, lean percent and selection index on the basis of the performance data collected from 25,790 pigs of Duroc, Yorkshire and Landrace breeds which were performance-tested at the Korea Swine Testing Station from 1991 to 2002. The results obtained in the study are summarized as follows; 1. The means of the major economic traits were estimated as 959.95${\pm}$0.699g for average daily gain, 138.36${\pm}$0.072days for age at 90kg, 1.41${\pm}$0.001cm for backfat thickness, 2.33${\pm}$0.001 for feed efficiency, 56.71${\pm}$0.018% for lean percent and 221.65${\pm}$0.113 for selection index. 2. The effect of breed was statistically significant for all studied traits. Briefly, Duroc showed the best performance for the average daily gain and age at 90kg. Landrace had the best performances for the backfat thickness and lean meat percent. In feed efficiency and selection index, Yorkshire had a better score than other breeds. 3. The least-squares means of female and male for the traits studied were 923.05${\pm}$1.289g and 974.53${\pm}$0.856g for average daily gain, 139.74${\pm}$0.145days and 137.21${\pm}$0.097days for age at 90kg, 1.49${\pm}$0.002cm and 1.39${\pm}$0.002cm for backfat thickness, 2.43${\pm}$0.002 and 2.28${\pm}$0.002 for feed efficiency, 56.43${\pm}$0.034% and 56.81${\pm}$0.023% for lean percent and 211.37${\pm}$0.194 and 224.61${\pm}$0.129 for selection index. Therefore, males were superior to females for all traits examined. 4. The effect of test station was statistically significant for all traits except for selection index. Performances for age at 90kg, backfat thickness, feed efficiency and lean meat percent collected from Test station 2 were higher than those from Test station 1. However, Test station 1 showed better average daily gain. 5. The initial weight and final weight included as a covariate in this study had a significant influence on average daily gain, age at 90kg, backfat thickness, feed efficiency and selection index. From the absolute values of the estimated regression coefficients, it was inferred that the final weight had greater effect for the investigated traits than the initial weight.