• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Shock

Search Result 153, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Ready-Made Garments (RMG) Export Earnings and Economic Development of Bangladesh: Empirical Analysis Using Vector Error Correction Model

  • JIBAN, Abul Jannat;BISWAS, Gautam Kumar;YANG, Shaohua
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.10
    • /
    • pp.29-38
    • /
    • 2022
  • Ready-made Garments (RMG) export earnings, which are almost 80% of the total exports of Bangladesh, have been recognized as one of the main catalysts for the recent development of the country. Therefore, the need to determine whether the RMG export had served as a mechanism for increasing the GDP growth as well as the economic development of the country is topical and pressing. We have applied the Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to reveal the linkage of RMG export earnings and other variables with the GDP growth rate in Bangladesh. Using data from 1990 to 2020 for Bangladesh, we have found long-run as well as short-run associations among RMG Export earnings, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and GDP growth. A co-integration among the variables is validated through the Johansen Co-integration test. Moreover, a causal correlation running from RMG export earnings to GDP was revealed by the Granger causality test in the long run. Finally, we estimated impulse response functions to observe the variations of model variables in response to a shock. Our result supports the proposition that RMG export earnings are one of the main growth engines in Bangladesh and this sector leads growth in other sectors also in the long term.

Factors Affecting Start-up Behavior and Start-up Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

  • PRAMONO, Cristoper Allen;MANURUNG, Adler Haymans;HERIYATI, Pantri;KOSASIH, Wibowo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.4
    • /
    • pp.809-817
    • /
    • 2021
  • The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the global economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has spread with alarming speed and. The economic damage is already evident and represents the largest economic shock the world has experienced in decades. This study analyzes the factors that influence behavior and its impact on start-up performance, through technology capabilities, technology development, organizational structure characteristics, and leadership technology. The mixed-method was used in this research to be applied to start-up companies in Jabodetabek with a population of 522 start-ups. Then the sample was selected through purposive sampling technique to obtain a sample of 187 start-ups. Primary data was collected through a questionnaire, then statistical analysis was carried out using Partial Least Square. There are ten variables used in the model as measured by the questionnaire. The results showed that the four factors (agility, entrepreneurship capability, business transformation, and opportunity) significantly influence start-up behavior. The results showed that the start-up behavior significantly influenced technology capabilities, technology development, organizational structure characteristics, and leadership technology. This study also found that start-up behavior had the greatest influence on organizational structure characteristics, partially affect start-up performance, but leadership technology does not have a significant effect on start-up performance.

Who Will Fill China's Shoes? The Global Evolution of Labor-Intensive Manufacturing

  • Hanson, Gordon
    • East Asian Economic Review
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.313-336
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this paper, I review evidence on changing global specialization in labor-intensive exporting. Production of apparel, footwear, furniture, and related products are how many low-income countries first enter export manufacturing. Just as China's rise as a powerhouse in these goods supplanted a role previously occupied by the East Asian Tigers, the world may again be on the cusp of significant change in where labor-intensive goods are produced. China's prowess in these sectors peaked in the early 2010s; its share in their global exports, while still substantial, is now in decline. Mechanisms through which the global economy may adjust to China's graduation into more technologically sophisticated activities include expanded labor-intensive export production in other emerging economies and labor-saving technological change in products currently heavily reliant on less-educated labor. Available evidence suggests that the first mechanism is operating slowly and the second hardly at all. As a third mechanism, China may in part replace itself by moving labor-heavy factories out of densely populated and expensive coastal cities and into the country's interior. Such a transition, though still in its infancy, would mirror the decentralization of manufacturing production in the U.S. and Europe, which occurred after World War II.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Returns in Emerging Economies: Empirical Evidence from Panel Data

  • GNAHE, Franck Edouard;ASHRAF, Junaid;HUANG, Fei-Ming
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.191-196
    • /
    • 2022
  • From several socioeconomic perspectives, the present health crisis can be connected to the 2008 financial and economic catastrophe. Governments worldwide are working hard to keep the markets in check, as evidence suggests that the health crisis may soon become an economic crisis. This paper aims to analyze the effect of COVID-19 on the selected stock market. Using a panel of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and the stock market from 22 developing countries, we exploit an oil price as a shock to the stock market and examine the effect of COVID-19 on the slowdown of the stock market. We find a negative and significant impact of COVID-19 on the stock market in the first stage till April. However, there is no net influence on the stock market downturn when we extend the period. However, further study suggests that the outbreak's negative influence on the selected stock market has diminished and has begun to decline as of mid-April. As a result of the COVID-19 effect on the chosen stock, our findings imply that the government in the chosen market should consider a regulatory mechanism to reduce the stock market slowdown induced by the pandemic COVID-19.

The Promises and Pitfalls of Digital Platforms: Evidence from the Online Food Ordering and Delivery Industry (디지털 플랫폼의 경제적 역할과 과제: 음식 주문 배달 플랫폼 실증 분석)

  • Yongkil Ahn;Myungjin Song
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.271-285
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose - We empirically investigate the promises and pitfalls of digital platforms in the online food ordering and delivery section. We first focus on the role of digital platforms before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic, and then proceed to explore whether there exists a digital divide phenomenon in Korea's digital economy. Design/methodology/approach - We partner with a nation-wide online food ordering and delivery platforms in Korea and quantify the long tail effect before and after the COVID-19 pandemic year by year. We also utilize non-parametric estimation techniques to investigate whether digital divide indeed exists in the cross-section of Korea's digital economy. Findings - We find that the use of digital platforms makes it easier for small businesses and restaurants to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic on average. But, it appears that relatively sophisticated (large or franchised rather small or independent) entities take more advantage of digital platforms. Research implications or Originality - This study is one of the first few empirical works on the role of digital platforms in Korea. The results may imply that digital platforms complement the traditional brick-and-mortal industry especially upon unexpected economic shocks. We also note that this complementary effect is transient and more clustered in those entities having a good understanding of digital platforms.

Dynamics of Business Cycles in Korea: The Role of External Shocks (외부충격이 한국의 경기변동에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sunghyun H.;Ahn, Hyungdo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.157-183
    • /
    • 2005
  • Using a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we investigate the dynamic effects of a variety of shocks to a small open economy. In particular, we calibrate the model to match the main characteristics of business cycles in Korea and analyze the effects of external shocks: the terms of trade and world real interest rate shocks. Business cycles in Korea more closely follow those of the G7 countries rather than Asian countries. The simulation results suggest that an improvement in the terms of trade has positive impact on investment, output and consumption, while a decrease in the world interest rate has a significant and positive effect on investment. This paper concludes that external shocks significantly influence business cycle fluctuations in Korea.

  • PDF

An Empirical Analysis on Macro-economic Effects of the Proposed Reduction of Legal Working Hours in Korea (법정근로시간 단축의 거시경제 효과 분석)

  • Nam, Sung-il
    • Journal of Labour Economics
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.33-78
    • /
    • 2002
  • This study analyzes effects of the proposed reduction of legal working hours in Korea in which base wage is unchanged with working hours reduction. The theoretical analysis shows that a reduction of legal working hours would result in less than equal size reduction of actual working hours, and increase in wages. On the other hand, the effects on employment is ambiguous depending on the substitution effect and scale effect. An empirical analysis based on macro-economic model simulation supports the theoretical conjecture. It has been found that with the reduction of legal working hours, real wages and consumption increase while actual working hours decreases about half of the legal hours reduction. In addition, the immediate and outright imposition of legal hours reduction on all sectors of the economy is found to create a cost push inflation and reduce GDP, investment, and employment. This negative effects are lessened as the reduction of legal hours is gradually made and/or some measures to absorb the cost shock such as abolition of paid monthly leave are employed together.

  • PDF

Budget Allocation for Emergency Support Funding System During Global Pandemic (글로벌 팬데믹 상황에서의 긴급지원금 예산 배분 정책에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Ki-Kun;Kim, Do-Hee;Kim, Seul-Gi;Choi, Ji-Won;Bae, Hye-Rim
    • The Journal of Bigdata
    • /
    • v.5 no.2
    • /
    • pp.97-110
    • /
    • 2020
  • The global pandemics occurred in 2020 had a great economic impact on the world, and the impact was especially greater on self-employed people who were heavily affected by the floating population and tourism industry. To solve this problem, each country implemented emergency disaster support policies, and it was difficult to select the criteria and scope. The following research carried out two results. First, after analyzing the impact of global pandemics on the local economy, an economical index was defined that could explain the impact intuitively. Second, we propose linear programming methods to provide optimal budget policy using defined indicators, which present economic shock indicators and optimal years that can be considered quickly and easily by the government. Finally, the limitations and implications of the proposed study model are introduced.

Oil Price Forecasting : A Markov Switching Approach with Unobserved Component Model

  • Nam, Si-Kyung;Sohn, Young-Woo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.105-118
    • /
    • 2008
  • There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

Criminal Psychological Analysis of Serial Killer Focused Study on On Bo Hyun's Women Kidnapping and Murder Case (연쇄 살인범에 대한 범죄심리학적 분석 -온보현 부녀자 납치${\cdot}$살인 사건을 중심으로-)

  • Oh, Yoon-Sung
    • Korean Security Journal
    • /
    • no.6
    • /
    • pp.215-233
    • /
    • 2003
  • The Serial murder is a serious social phenomenon that gives a shock to community and society, because of it's habituate and scheme. We could identify a happening of serial killing crime at Western society, especially in U. S, but hardly to find many cases in Korea except some of cases. We can easily prospect the happening of serial killing crime at Korea in the future, at least it exists that home and social disorganization cause by divorcing and hasty economic development. There will be a reserve criminal who have distorted personality effected by undesirable surrounding, therefore he may become a serial murder. This study examines criminal psychological analysis of On Bo Hwan's serial murder case in 1994 at Korea, according to criminal records and press report and his statement and confession. This paper also show his domestic background and growing atmosphere and human relation between his parents.

  • PDF