• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.323-344
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• 2023

This study investigates the resilient structural characteristics of a region by assessing the impact of the financial crisis. Utilizing panel data at the prefecture level for metropolitan cities across pre-shock (2006-2008), shock (2009), and post-shock (2010-2019) periods, we calculated an employment resilience index by combining the resistance and recovery indices. The panel logit regression measures the influences of the region's industrial structure and external economic factors in response to the global financial crisis. The results revealed that the diversity index of industries contributed to the post-shock recovery bounce-back. Additionally, the presence of large firms and industrial clusters within the region positively contributed to economic resilience. The specialization and the proportion of manufacturing industries showed negative effects, suggesting that regions overly reliant on manufacturing-centered specialization might be vulnerable to external shocks. Furthermore, excessive capital outflows for market expansion were found to have a detrimental impact on regional economic recovery.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.277-314
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• 2024

This study analyzes the response of economic fundamentals to a misalignment shock of the real effective exchange rate in Korea. The estimation results of the equilibrium exchange rate determination model and time series model show that there is no significant difference in the direction of the deviation from equilibrium and that the won is significantly undervalued during the period before 1988, or during the currency and global financial crises. The cumulative impulse response analysis of the VAR model over the full period shows that an upward shock to the deviation from the equilibrium exchange rate reduces the GDP gap and inflation rate, while the effect on the call rate is not statistically significant. Furthermore, an upward misalignment shock initially worsens the goods and services balance, but the deficit in the goods and services balance shrinks significantly over time. In rolling regressions analysis, the entire sample is divided into two periods to estimate the impulse response function from the first period, and then the same procedure is repeated by moving the sample forward one by one. The cumulative impulse response results show that, as is the case for the full period, a positive exchange rate misalignment shock initially reduces the GDP gap, inflation, and worsens the goods and services balance, but the impact of this upward shock on these variables becomes increasingly weaker in the more recent sample. It also shows that the negative impact of upward shocks on the current account is smoothed out more recently during periods of undervaluation than during periods of overvaluation.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.93-98
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• 2018

The article studies macroeconomic effects of the oil shock for Korea, which is a representative emerging economy of Asia and a small open economy. This article analyzed the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks in terms of demand and supply. In the case of Korea, oil price shocks different responds depending on factors of shock. Oil supply shock have led to a decline in industrial activity and interest rate, and oil specific demand shock have shown the greatest increase in interest rate relative to other oil price shocks. In addition, oil demand shock driven by economic activity showed that the comsumer price and the exchange rate are the largest compared to the oil shock caused by other factors. Therefore, policy makers will need to identify the source of the oil shock.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.8-16
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• 2013

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to identify and assess the contribution of budgetary, monetary and institutional shocks affecting the Tunisian economy over the period 1976-2003. The methodology used is vector autoregressive models and structural recent techniques for the analysis of time series related. The empirical results show a significant relationship between the supply shock and institutions on the one hand, and between institutional shocks and economic activity on the other hand. Research Design, Data and Methodology: As part of this section we will try to identify and assess the contribution of various shocks to macroeconomic variables' fluctuations for the Tunisian economy. The study period is: 1976-2003 and observations are annual. Results: The real business cycle theory argues that fluctuations in aggregate economic activity are the result of the interaction of the only real factors namely agents' preferences, technological opportunities, factor endowments and possibly certain institutional constraints. Conclusions: The lowest contribution to the variability of these rights is the monetary shock. As for "civil liberties", the largest share of their variability is the shock relating to the "political rights" during the first four periods .

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.409-427
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• 2019

This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.245-273
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• 2024

This paper sets up a small open new Keynesian economy model with constrained households and incomplete markets to address the driving forces of business cycles in Korea. It shows that there exists a substantial fraction of constrained households who cannot have access to financial market. Furthermore, the estimated model reveals that a TANK model is better than a RANK model in explaining business cycles in Korea. The effect of domestic productivity shock on Korean economy has dominated in the variations of output, while the contribution of the foreign productivity shock to the variations of output and inflation has increased after the Asian financial crisis. The monetary policy shock has dominated the variation of inflation at short and medium horizons.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.79-108
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• 2022

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence that sentiment shock has a statistically significant relationship with Korea's aggregate housing price changes. Specifically, the key findings show that an increase in sentiment shock predicts a rise in the aggregate housing price and a drop in its volatility at the national level. For the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR), this study also suggests that sentiment shock is positively associated with one-month-ahead aggregate housing price changes, whereas an increase in sentiment volatility tends to increase housing price volatility as well. In addition, the out-of-sample forecasting exercises conducted here reveal that the prediction model endowed with sentiment shock and sentiment volatility outperforms other competing prediction models.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.177-187
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• 2022

Theoretical literature agrees on the interaction between financial instability and economic activity but explains it's dynamic in two points of view: one is that the transmission mechanism occurs in one unique regime and the other reckons a shift of regime leads to the alteration of the transmission mechanism. This study aims to find evidence of the multi-regime transmission for ASEAN developing countries. The author employs the technique of Threshold vector auto regression using the financial stress index standing for financial instability. Monthly data is collected, covering a period long enough with many episodes of high stress in recent decades. There are two conclusions: (1) A financial shock has a negative and stronger impact on economic activity during a high-stress period than it does during a low-stress period; (2) the response of economic activity to a negative financial shock during high-stress periods is stronger than it is during normal times. The findings point to the importance of the financial stress index as an additional early warning indicator for the real economy sector, as well as the positive effect that a reduction in financial stress may have on economic activity, implying the importance of "unconventional" monetary policy in times of high financial stress.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.23-51
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• 2021

The persistence of the employment shock by COVID-19 has various policy implications during the pandemic and beyond it. After evaluating the impact of the health crisis at the individual level, this study decomposes employment losses into persistent and transitory components using the observed timing of the three major outbreaks and subsequent lulls. The estimation results show that while face-to-face services were undoubtedly hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis, the sectoral shock was less persistent for temporary jobs and self-employment. Permanent jobs in the hard-hit sector showed increasingly large persistent losses through the recurring crises, indicating gradual changes in employer responses. The persistent job losses were concentrated on young and older workers in career transitions, whose losses are likely to have long-term effects. These results suggest that targeted measures to mitigate the persistent effects of the employment shock should take priority during the recovery process.