• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.53-60
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• 2019

Purpose - The objective of this paper is to discover if there exists a relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Because of the distribution industry boom in the recent years, a lot of interest in the relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean and the economy has been generated. This article examine on the mutual influence between economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Research design, data, and methodology - For this purpose, we use the vector-auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the economic index and distribution industry index, Granger causality test using weekly data on the economic index and distribution industry price index in korea. The sample period is covering from January 2, 2010 to August 31, 2019. The VAR model can also be linked to cointegration analysis. Cointegration Analysis makes possible to find a mechanism causing x and y to move around a long-run equilibrium (Engle and Granger, 1987). This equilibrium means that external shocks may separate the series temporarily at any particular time, but there will be an overall tendency towards some type of long-run equilibrium. If variables are found to have this tendency they are said to be cointegrated and a long-run relationship between these series is established. These econometric tools have been applied widely into economics and business areas to analyze intertemporal linkages between different time series. Results - This research showed following main results. First, from the basic statistic analysis of the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean, the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea have unit roots. Second, there is at least one cointegration between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Finally, the correlation between of the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea is (+) 0.528876. Conclusions - We find that the distribution industry price index Granger cause the economic index in korea. As a consequence, the distribution industry index affect the economic index in Korean. The distribution industry index to the economic index is stronger than that from the economic index to the distribution industry index.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.75-82
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• 2022

The purpose of the Consumer sentiment index survey is to determine the consumer's economic situation and consumption spending plan, and it is used as basic data for diagnosing economic phenomena and forecasting the future economic direction. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and predict the future Consumer sentiment index using the ARMA model based on the past consumer index. Consumer sentiment index is determined according to consumer trends, so it can reflect consumer realities. The consumer sentiment index is greatly influenced by economic indicators such as the base interest rate and consumer price index, as well as various external economic factors. If the consumer sentiment index, which fluctuates greatly due to consumer economic conditions, can be predicted, it will be useful information for households, businesses, and policy authorities. This study predicted the Consumer sentiment index for the next 3 years (36 months in total) by using time series analysis using the ARMA model. As a result of the analysis, it shows a characteristic of repeating an increase or a decrease every month according to the consumer trend. This study provides empirical results of prediction of Consumer sentiment index through statistical techniques, and has a contribution to raising the need for policy authorities to prepare flexible operating policies in line with economic trends.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.41-51
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• 2017

Purpose - This study proposes the impact of the US and Korean economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomy, and its effect on Korea. The economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea is used to represent the economic policy uncertainty on Korean economy. Research design, data, and methodology - In this paper, we collect the eight variables to find out the interrelationship among the US and Korean economic policy uncertainty index of the US and macroeconomic indicators during 1990 to 2016, and use Vector Error Correction Model. Result - The distribution industry stock index in Korea is influenced by the economic policy uncertainty index of the US rather than of Korea. All variables are related negatively to the economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea from Vector Error Correction Model. This study shows that the economic policy uncertainty index of the US and Korea has the dynamic relationships on the Korean economy. Conclusions - A higher economic policy uncertainty shows a greater economy recession of a country. Finally, the economic policy uncertainty of the Korea has an intensive impact on Korea economy. Particularly, the economic policy uncertainty of the US has a strong impact on distribution industry stock market in Korea.

• International Journal of Knowledge Content Development & Technology
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.87-111
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to develop an evaluation index for evaluating the economic value of libraries. To this end, a preliminary evaluation index was derived from analyzing a total of approximately 60 domestic and foreign papers that examined the value of libraries. Based on the derived preliminary evaluation index, 11 experts were selected and the final evaluation index was developed by conducting the Delphi survey for 3 times. The final evaluation index consists of four evaluation areas, such as the economic value of the public library, economic revitalization, manpower development and job creation, and the improved investment value, seven evaluation items, and 22 evaluation indices. In the future, it will be necessary to conduct research to measure the economic value of public libraries.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.5-13
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• 2019

Purpose - This research is aimed to investigate the impact of the Information and Communication Technology (hereinafter ICT) development index and ICT investment on Indonesian economic growth. Research design, data and methodology - The data used consist of ICT development index, government expenditure on ICT sector, and economic growth from 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2012 to 2015. Based on the Networked Readiness Index published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), Indonesia was ranked 80^th among 142 countries in 2012 and had climbed 64^th in 2014. This indicates that the businesses in Indonesia have adopted ICTs to increase productivity and expand their activities. Panel data regression analysis is performed to reveal the change of the impact over time in each of the provinces. Result - The ICT development index and government expenditure for ICT have a positive effect on the economic growth of all provinces, although the impact is different in each of the provinces. There is a digital gap between the provinces, especially the large digital gap occurring with DKI Jakarta. The provinces of Eastern Indonesia such as NTT and Papua are still relatively slow in development of ICT. Conclusions - ICT development index and allocation of local government expenditure for ICT have significant effect on economic growth. ICT development index has a bigger role in increasing economic growth.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.39-51
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• 2009

The misery index is the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The higher the index, the lower the performance of the national economy. Lee and Cheong (2007) propose that the open misery index, defined to be the sum of the misery index and the ratio of current account to GDP, properly measure the economic performance of a national economy when its degree of openness is large. This paper shows that the periods of rising open misery index of the USA coincide with those of economic hardship in the USA. Most recently, the open misery index of the USA has shown a rising trend for a decade prior to the current economic crisis. That is, external and internal imbalances of the USA have accumulated for a decade prior to the current economic crisis. We interpret the recent rising trend of the open misery index of the USA as a precursor of the current economic crisis.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.363-379
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• 2023

Purpose: The main objective of this research is to construct an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model to achieve accurate predictions of the Composite Index of Business Indicators. By incorporating various economic indicators as independent variables, the ACSI model enables the prediction and analysis of both the leading index (CLI) and coincident index (CCI). Methods: This study proposes an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model that leverages diverse economic indicators as independent variables to forecast leading and coincident economic indicators. To evaluate the model's performance, advanced machine learning techniques including MLP, RNN, LSTM, and GRU were employed. Furthermore, the study explores the potential of employing deep learning models to train the weights associated with the independent variables that constitute the composite supplementary index. Results: The experimental results demonstrate the superior accuracy of the proposed composite supple- mentary index model in predicting leading and coincident economic indicators. Consequently, this model proves to be highly effective in forecasting economic cycles. Conclusion: In conclusion, the developed AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model successfully predicts the Composite Index of Business Indicators. Apart from its utility in management, economics, and investment domains, this model serves as a valuable indicator supporting policy-making and decision-making processes related to the economy.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.63-71
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• 2016

Purpose - A variety of indicators are used for the diagnosis of economic situation. However, most indicators explain the past economic situation because of the time difference between the measurement and announcement. This study aims to argue for the resurrection of an idea: electricity demand can be used as an indicator of economic activity. In addition, this study made an endeavor to develop a new Real Business Index(RBI) which could quickly represent the real economic condition based on the sales statistics of industrial and public electricity. Research design, data, and methodology - In this study monthly sales of industrial and public electricity from 2000 to 2015 was investigated to analyze the relationship between the economic condition and the amount of electricity consumption and to develop a new Real Business Index. To formulate the Index, this study followed next three steps. First, we decided the explanatory variables, period, and collected data. Second, after calculating the monthly changes for each variable, standardization and estimating the weighted value were conducted. Third, the computation of RBI finalized the development of empirical model. The principal component analysis was used to evaluate the weighted contribution ratio among 3 sectors and 17 data. Hodrick-Prescott filter analysis was used to verify the robustness of out model. Results - The empirical results are as follows. First, compatibility of the predictability between the new RBI and the existing monthly cycle of coincident composite index was extremely high. Second, two indexes had a high correlation of 0.7156. In addition, Hodrick-Prescott filter analysis demonstrated that two indexed also had accompany relationship. Third, when the changes of two indexes were compared, they were found that the times when the highest and the lowest point happened were similar, which suggested that it is possible to use the new RBI index as a complementing indicator in a sense that the RBI can explain the economic condition almost in real time. Conclusion - A new economic index which can explain the economic condition needs to be developed well and rapidly in a sense that it is useful to determine accurately the current economic condition to establish economic policy and corporate strategy. The salse of electricity has a close relationship with economic conditions because electricity is utilized as a main resource of industrial production. Furthermore, the result of the sales of electricity can be gathered almost in real time. This study applied the econometrics model to the statistics of the sales of industrial and public electricity. In conclusion, the new RBI index was highly related with the existing monthly economic indexes. In addition, the comparison between the RBI index and other indexes demonstrated that the direction of the economic change and the times when the highest and lowest points had happened were almost the same. Therefore, this RBI index can become the supplementary indicator of the official indicators published by Korean Bank or the statistics Korea.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.5-11
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• 2018

Purpose - We investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of the US and China and housing distribution economy in Korea using EPU indexes of two countries and the economic indicators in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We use the data such as the Korean housing price stability index (HPSI), housing purchase price index (HPPI), housing lease price index (HLPI), banking stock index (BSI), and consumer price index (CPI) with EPU indexes from January 1999 to December 2017. As an empirical methodology, we select the vector error correction model (VECM) due to the existence of cointegration. Result - As results of the impulse response function, the impact of the US EPU index has initially a negative response on the Korean HPSI, HPPI, and HLPI referring the housing distribution market including the economic variables, BSI, and CPI. Likewise, the impact of index in China has initially a negative response on economic indicators except the BSI in Korea. Conclusions - This study shows that the EPU index of the US has significantly negative relationships on all economic indicators in Korea. In this study, we reveal EPU of the US and China has dynamic impact on housing distribution economy returns in Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.575-587
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• 2015

This study explores economic and psychological factors as well as dietary, clothing, and dwelling lifestyle factors that influence the happiness of college students. For this, a survey of 570 students (222 males and 348 females) was conducted using 72 categories, including general characteristics, the happiness index, the health index, and economic, psychological, dietary, clothing, and dwelling factors. Gender differences in student characteristics were analyzed through an independent samples t-test, and relationships between variables were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficients. Variables showing significant correlations with the happiness index were classified as independent variables for the dependent variable of the happiness index and used for a regression analysis. The happiness index showed no significant gender difference, but it was higher for males than for females. Males scoring higher in the economic lifestyle and self-esteem, among others, were more likely to think practically, and their economic lifestyles were relatively rational. In both genders significant positive correlations were found between the happiness index and allowance satisfaction, the allowance level, the economic lifestyle, self-esteem, major satisfaction, and peer satisfaction. Variables more likely to influence the happiness index for males were self-esteem, peer satisfaction, the economic level, major satisfaction, and regular exercise, whereas those for females were self-esteem, peer satisfaction, and stress eating. These results indicate that emotional factors such as self-esteem and peer satisfaction were more likely to influence the happiness index of college students for both genders than economic and physical factors.