• Title/Summary/Keyword: Econometric Model

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Envisaging Macroeconomics Antecedent Effect on Stock Market Return in India

  • Sivarethinamohan, R;ASAAD, Zeravan Abdulmuhsen;MARANE, Bayar Mohamed Rasheed;Sujatha, S
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.311-324
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    • 2021
  • Investors have increasingly become interested in macroeconomic antecedents in order to better understand the investment environment and estimate the scope of profitable investment in equity markets. This study endeavors to examine the interdependency between the macroeconomic antecedents (international oil price (COP), Domestic gold price (GP), Rupee-dollar exchange rates (ER), Real interest rates (RIR), consumer price indices (CPI)), and the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 index return. The data is converted into a natural logarithm for keeping it normal as well as for reducing the problem of heteroscedasticity. Monthly time series data from January 1992 to July 2019 is extracted from the Reserve Bank of India database with the application of financial Econometrics. Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test for removal of autocorrelation, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for removal of heteroscedasticity, Cointegration test and VECM test for testing cointegration between macroeconomic factors and market returns,] are employed to fit regression model. The Indian market returns are stable and positive but show intense volatility. When the series is stationary after the first difference, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation are not present. Different forecast accuracy measures point out macroeconomics can forecast future market returns of the Indian stock market. The step-by-step econometric tests show the long-run affiliation among macroeconomic antecedents.

Effect of the Human Development Index on Mobile Telephony Diffusion: Evidence from SAARC Member Countries

  • Dhakal, Thakur;Lim, Dae-Eun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - The propose of this study is to examine the effect of human development index on mobile telephony diffusion. Design/methodology/approach - This study fits the modidensity of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries with an econometric Gompertz growth model. The diffusion factors, including the human development index (HDI), gross domestic product (nominal) per capita, fixed-line telephony subscription, and population data of each member country from 2005 to 2018 are considered for the empirical experiment. Furthermore, the mobidensity of randomly sampled countries with very high human development scores (the Republic of Korea, Switzerland and Norway) and high development scores (Brazil and Costa Rica) have been examined with the same process as SAARC members. Findings - We have found a positive but insignificant relationship between the HDI value and mobile telephony diffusion in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Pakistan; a positive and statistically significant relationship at a 99% confidence level in SriLanka; and a negative and insignificant relationship in the Maldives and Nepal. HDI has both positive and negative effects on mobile telephony diffusion, with the nature of effect depending on the profiles of each country. HDI is a diffusion determinant of mobile telephony only for the high human development country groups. Research implications or Originality - This study provides a reference for policymakers, telecommunication stakeholders, and future researchers to design the telecommunication policies and strategies.

The Nexus between International Trade, FDI and Income Inequality

  • Wang, Meiling;Park, Noori;Choi, Chang Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.18-33
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper investigated the effect of international trade affects income inequality. It also compares the different effects between developing and developed countries over the period from 2005 to 2014 for 58 countries. Design/methodology - The econometric estimation was used to identify the relationship between export, import, FDI, GDP, unemployment and income inequality. In this empirical analysis, we utilized a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model using panel data. Findings - The findings show that there is a close correlated between trade and income inequality. The higher export ratio of GDP tends to have a 1.79 times more income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. The higher import ratio of GDP tends to have a 2.44 times higher income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. Further, Increasing FDI tend to have an approximately 1.43 times higher income inequality in developing countries than in developed countries. Korea is in the middle of developed and developing countries' result. Originality/value - To correct the global income inequality regarding trade, developed countries' proactive trade policies, such as granting preferential tariff benefits to developing countries, are likely to be needed and Income Safety Net in international trade must be taken into account.

The Role of FDI in Economic Development in Vietnam + 5 Nations: Empirical Evidence between 1986-2020

  • Long Ma, LE
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.203-212
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    • 2023
  • This research work aims to investigate the role of FDI in Economic Development by assessing its relationship with GDP per capita in Vietnam +5 from 1986-2020. Through descriptive statistical, correlation matrix analysis, and econometric models, including Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimation methods using Stata 15.1. The VECM estimation method results show that FDI positively impacts Economic Development in the short run while not finding a long-run relationship. In addition, it is found that a clear relationship between Exports and Economic Development in both the short run and the long run. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions and Employment Opportunities have no clear relationship with Economic Development in the short run. However, the relationship is reversed in the long run, as the empirical study in Vietnam. The results of the FGLS estimation method show that FDI, CO2 emissions, and Exports have a significant and positive impact on Economic Development in five selected Southeast Asian countries without Employment Opportunities in the long run. From these findings, the author proposes some policy implications of attaching FDI to sustainable Economic Development in Vietnam next time.

Spillovers of Education and Job Training in Bringing Sustainable Economic Development in Pakistan: The Role of Research and Development Revisited

  • AMIN, Sara;LIAQAT, Malka;SAFDAR, Noreen;IQBAL, Sidra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2022
  • Current research intended to measure the spillovers of education and on-the-job training to enhance sustainable economic development. Consideration of research and development expenditures for on-the-job training expands the impact of education and, thus, may provide spillovers for Pakistan's economic growth. The primary focus of this research is to look at the combined impact of education and research and development spending as value-added variables for sustainable growth. The econometric study uses data from a variety of sources, including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Pakistan Economic Survey, and world development indices. The secondary annual time series data from 1976 to 2019 are analyzed. To adequately estimate the empirical model, ARDL has been used while the presence of the unit root has been tested using the ADF test. The findings show that education, research, and development all contribute to all-inclusive, sustainable economic growth. Labor and capital, among other traditional components, continue to be the backbone of the development process. Still, the spillover effect is much enhanced with the expansion in education and the on-job training in the form of research and development expenditures. Consequently, the introduction of research and development in education will lead to a sustainable and inclusive economy.

A Study on Price Elasticities of mobile telephone Demand in Korea (국내 이동전화 통화수요의 요금탄력성 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Woo-Soo;Cho, Byung-Sun
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.6B
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    • pp.390-401
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    • 2007
  • This paper is to estimate and analyze the price elasticities of demand for mobile calls. We used the data for the period from January 2000 to December 2005 on a monthly basis. Data used are call minutes to mobile-originating(ML+MM), tariff for dispatch of fixed and mobile calls($P_L,P_M$), income(Y), and subscriber for mobile(N). In order to provide robust estimates of price elasticities, we have used two different econometric models. One is a Dynamic model which includes a lagged dependent variable and so can differentiate between long-un and short-run price elasticities using the Generalized Method of Moments(GMM). The other is a Box-Cox transformation model which is one of the most useful methods. Box-Cox transformation model shows that elasticity changes with the lapse of time. The results are as follow : Not including the price indices for land-originating, the estimate is overestimated otherwise. In Box-Cox transformation case, price elasticity had been steadily declining. And this result shows that mobile services had been changed necessities increasingly in Korea.

Value Evaluation Model for Korean Professional Baseball Players (한국프로야구선수의 가치평가모형)

  • Oh, Taeyeon;Lee, Young Hoon
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.113-139
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to establish evaluation model that can explain marginal effects of baseball players of Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) on their team winnings in terms of productivity. We proposed econometric model with using variables that are provided from official homepage of KBO to overcome the complexity of mainly used productivity index: wins above replacement (WAR). Also, compare to the previous studies such as Scully(1974) or Krautmann(1999) that using limited indices of baseball stats, this study included 61 indices that are provided from official homepage of KBO. We estimated regression based WAR(RBWAR) by conducting panel regression with each team's statistics data of 2002 to 2014. As a results, RBWAR shows 0.869 correlation coefficient for batters and 0.882 for pitchers with WAR in 2014 that can be concluded that two indices shows similar results. From the results of estimation, we analyze the relationship between productivity and actual contract of free agent players in 2015 and it showed that teams have contracted reasonably.

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AR-QC DEA모형을 이용한 신제품 시장 모의테스트 메커니즘에 관한 연구

  • 백철우;이정동;김태유
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2001.11a
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    • pp.169-186
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    • 2001
  • The researches about the general flow of new product development process was achieved in various field. But there was little discussion about the methodologies and tools used in that process. So we suggest new DEA model as the methodology that determines sustainable price and quality attributes and this can substitute econometric hedonic methodology. To make smooth surface composed of quality attributes and price, we use QC-DEA model. Additionally we make AR-QC DEA model by introducing AR to reflect consumer perceptions on quality attributes. AR-QC DEA overcomes the limits of parametric methodology and represents product-specific shadow prices, so it is possible to supply the information about quality attributes and price combination in new product development process and to simulate easily whether new product can exist in the market. Finally by empirical research on notebook computer we can show that AR-QC DEA has the ability to explain market change.

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Evaluating Proton Accelerator in Korea (양성자가속기시설의 편익분석)

  • Jeong, Kiho;Cho, Jinsam;Kim, Jeeyoung;Kim, Junyeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.741-760
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    • 2006
  • As a part of the 21st Century Frontier Projects, Korea is building a proton linear accelerator complex. Using the discrete choice conjoint analysis method, this study evaluates the complex. Multinomial logit model is employed as an econometric model and Hicks' compensating variation is adopted as a welfare measure. The results show that an average willingness-to-pay (WTP) of a would-be user measured by the compensating variation is estimated by 1.93 million Korean won per hour for the specification of the complex being built.

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An Analysis on Supply-Demand Outlook of Korean Omija(Medicinal Plant) (약용작물 오미자의 중장기 수급전망 분석)

  • Choi, Byung-Ok;Kim, Bae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.2689-2694
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    • 2014
  • This study analyze the impact of omija(maximowiczia chinensis) market by Korea-China FTA and review the change of mid and long term supply-demand from 2014 to 2018. A scenario is also imported to simulate and measure the impacts of the Korea-China FTA. The scenario is that tariff rates for Chinese product(omija) will be zero after 5 years from 2014. A partial equilibrium model of Omija is specified to forecast mid and long term supply-demand and prices. Equations in the model were estimated by using econometric techniques. The results based on scenario are compared with the results by the baseline case(maintenance of current situation). Our study show that when the tariff rates for Chinese product(Omija) will be zero after 5 years from 2014, the cultivated area of Omija is forecasted to decline until 3,370ha in 2018, and the consumption is forecasted to increase up to 12,040.8MT in 2018, and also total revenue of about 9.8 billion korean won will be decreased during 5 years(2014-2018).