• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.503-514
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• 2020

Climate change leads to changes in phenological response and movement of plant habitats. Korea's evergreen broad-leaved forest has widened its distribution area compared for the past 20 years, and the range of its native habitats is moving northward. We analyzed climate indices such as the warmth index, the cold index, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, and the annual average temperature, which are closely related to vegetation distribution, to predict the change in the native habitat of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees. We also analyzed the change and spatial distribution to identify the habitat climate characteristics of 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees distributed in the warm temperate zone in Korea. Moreover, we predicted the natural habitat change in the 21st century according to the climate change scenario (RCP 4.5/8.5), applying the MaxEnt species distribution model. The monthly average climate index of the 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was 116.9±10.8℃ for the temperate index, the cold index 3.9±3.8℃, 1495.7±455.4mm for the annual precipitation, 11.7±3.5 for the humidity index, 14.4±1.1℃ for the annual average temperature, and 1.0±2.1℃ for the lowest temperature of winter. Based on the climate change scenario RCP 4.5, the distribution of the Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was analyzed to expand to islands of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, adjacent areas of the west and south coasts, and Goseong, Gangwon-do on the east coast. In the case of the distribution based on the climate change scenario RCP 8.5, it was analyzed that the distribution would expand to all of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, and most regions except for some parts of Jeollabuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and the capital region. For the conservation of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees to prepare for climate change, it is necessary to establish standards for conservation plans such as in-situ and ex-situ conservation and analyze various physical and chemical characteristics of native habitats. Moreover, it is necessary to preemptively detect changes such as distribution, migration, and decline of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees following climate change based on phenological response data based on climate indicators and establish conservation management plans.