• 지식경영연구
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.195-213
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• 2019

This paper investigates the effects of firms' foreign market focus on the optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts. Based on a sample of 852 U.S. manufacturing firms between 1994 and 2015, our empirical results suggest that higher growth of foreign market focus is associated with greater levels of analysts' forecast optimism. Drawing on the CEO career horizon and the upper echelon theory literature, we find evidence that CEOs' career horizon and functional background as a CFO moderates the relationship between the growth rate of foreign market focus and analysts' forecast optimism. This shows that while financial analysts perceive internationalization strategies as signaling growth potential, such perception can vary depending on CEOs' individual characteristics.

• 한국융합학회논문지
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• 제8권11호
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• pp.363-372
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• 2017

본 연구는 경영자가 제공하는 이익예측정보가 미래 이익의 질에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 분석하였다. 연구의 분석기간은 관심변수(종속변수)를 기준으로 하여 2003년부터 2009년까지(2004년부터 2011년까지)이며, 유가증권상장기업 중 경영자가 영업이익의 예측치를 공시한 기업을 대상으로 총 475개 기업/년 자료가 분석에 이용되었다. 분석결과를 살펴보면 첫째, 당기 경영자의 이익예측성향이 낙관적일수록 미래 이익의 질이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 당기 경영자의 이익예측정확성이 낮을수록 미래 이익의 질이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 미래이익의 질을 결정하는데 있어 경영자의 이익예측정보가 활용될 수 있음을 시사한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.1557-1567
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• 2014

In this paper, I propose a general hypothesis that after the enactment of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOA) financial statements convey more accurate and reliable corporate information to investors who in turn reflect such improvements in stock prices and test four practical hypotheses that simultaneously feature the degree of information asymmetry, forecast bias, and investor reaction to biased earnings information. The empirical results unanimously suggest that the post-SOA investors take advantage of the improvement in informational efficiency and accuracy and actively adjust for analyst forecast bias in earnings forecasts. The SOA indeed appears to achieve its primary goal of investor protection.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제17권10호
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• pp.41-48
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• 2019

Purpose - This study investigates whether financial analysts consider the intangible investment implicit in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenditures to forecast firms' future earnings. Research design, data, and methodology - Using 52,609 U.S. firm-year observations spanning 1984-2016, this study examines the association between the Intangible investment implicit in SG&A expenditures and properties of analysts' earnings forecasts. To estimate the Intangible investment of SG&A, I decompose SG&A excluding R&D and advertising expenditures into maintenance and investment components following Enache and Srivastava (2017). Results - The main results show that analysts' earnings forecast errors and dispersion in analysts' forecasts increase with the intangible investment derived from SG&A because the investment component of SG&A affects future earnings and the uncertainty of those earnings. However, these results are weakened in the wholesale and retail industries where firms have a higher level of investment component of SG&A. I attribute the weaker results to low R&D expenditures in those industries. Conclusion - This study indicates that financial analysts incorporate the intangible investment of SG&A into their earnings forecasts differently across firms and industries. Furthermore, this study supports the argument for the separate reporting of the investment nature of SG&A from other operating expenses such as maintenance nature of SG&A.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.17-25
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• 2019

Purpose - The international market provides a growth momentum for firms by allowing them to tap into a new market. Given information asymmetry between firms and financial analysts, firms' international growth can be perceived as a higher business prospect by analysts. This paper explores the possibility of analysts' over-emphasis on foreign income growth in predicting earnings. Research design, data, and methodology - We utilize a sample of U.S. firms to test the relationship between foreign income growth and analysts' forecast optimism. Our sample of publicly listed and traded U.S. firms between 1976 and 2016 consists of 6,120 firm-year observations. Results - Empirical analyses show that firms that show higher international growth in earnings are likely to face forecast inaccuracy by financial analysts. From the perspective of firms, their earnings are less than what analysts forecasted. Contrary to our prediction on the moderating effect of innovative capabilities, optimistic bias is not intensified - rather, it is reduced - when firms have higher innovative capabilities. Conclusions - Our results imply that while analysts favor firms with higher international growth, innovative capability on the international market places additional risks to firms' operation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.45-54
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• 2019

This study examines whether auditors restrain the analysts' opportunistic behavior as reviewing the companies' interim reports. Analysts' forecasts show a walkdown pattern in which their optimism has decreased as the earnings announcement date has approached. At the beginning of the year, there is a lack of high-quality benchmark information that enables information users to judge the accuracy of analyst's earnings forecasts. Thus, early in the year, analysts are highly inspired to disseminate optimistic forecasts in order to gain manager's favor. In this study, we examine adequate benchmarks prevent analysts from disclosing optimistically biased forecasts. We conjecture that auditors' efforts might mitigate analysts' walkdown pattern. To test this hypothesis, we use data from Korea, where it is mandatory to disclose auditor's review hours. We find that the analyst forecast's walkdown decreases with the ratio as well as the number of audit hours. It implies that an auditor's effort in reviewing interim financial information has a monitoring function that reduces analysts' opportunistic optimism at the beginning of the year. We conjecture that the tendency will be more pronounced when BIG4 auditors review the interim reports. Consistent with the prediction, BIG4 auditors' interim review effort is more effective in suppressing the analysts' walkdown.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제12권
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• pp.137-160
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• 2003

The association between accounting earnings and the stock price of an entity is the subject that has been most heavily researched during the past 25 years in accounting literature. Researcher's common finding is that there are positive relationships between accounting earnings and stock prices. However, the explanatory power of accounting earnings which was measured by $R^2$ of regression functions used was rather low. To be connected with these low results, The prior studies propose that there will be additional information, errors in variables. This study investigates empirically determinants of earnings response coefficients(ERCs), which measure the correlation between earnings and stock prices, using earnings level / change, as the dependent variable in the return/earnings regression. Specifically, the thesis tests whether the factors such as earnings persistence, growth, systematic risk, image, information asymmetry and firm size. specially, the determinable variables of ERC are explained in detail. The image / information asymmetry variables are selected to be connected with additional information stand point, The debt / growth variables are selected to be connected with errors in variables. In this study, The sample of firms, listed in Korean Stock Exchange was drawn from the KIS-DATA and was required to meet the following criteria: (1) Annual accounting earnings were available over the 1986-1999 period on the KIS-FAS to allow computation of variables parameter; (2) sufficient return data for estimation of market model parameters were available on the KIS-SMAT month returns: (3) each firm had a fiscal year ending in December throughout the study period. Implementation of these criteria yielded a sample of 1,141 firm-year observation over the 10-year(1990-1999) period. A conventional regression specification would use stock returns(abnormal returns) as a dependent variable and accounting earnings(unexpected earnings) changes interacted with other factors as independent variables. In this study, I examined the relation between other factors and the RRC by using reverse regression. For an empirical test, eight hypotheses(including six lower-hypotheses) were tested. The results of the performed empirical analysis can be summarized as follows; The first, The relationship between persistence of earnings and ERC have significance of each by itself, this result accord with one of the prior studies. The second, The relationship between growth and ERC have not significance. The third, The relationship between image and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact shows that image cost does not effect on market management share, is used to prevent market occupancy decrease. The fourth, The relationship between information asymmetry variable and ERC have significance of each by. The fifth, The relationship between systematic risk$(\beta)$ and ERC have not significance. The sixth, The relationship between debt ratio and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact is judged that it is due to the effect of financial leverage effect and a tendency of interest.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.151-165
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• 2017

본 연구는 수주산업 기업의 진행기준 수익인식 방법이 재무분석가 이익 예측 정보에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 구체적으로 미청구공사 계정 잔액 보고여부 및 잔액 수준에 따라 달라지는 재무분석가 이익예측 정보의 특성을 살펴보았다. 미청구공사 계정 정보는 K-IFRS 도입 이후부터 제공되고 있으므로, 본 연구는 2010년부터 2014년까지 한국거래소에 상장된 기업 중 수주산업에 속한 453개 기업-연도 표본을 대상으로 분석하였다. 분석결과, 미청구공사 계정 잔액이 존재하는 기업은 미청구공사 계정 잔액이 없는 기업에 비해 재무분석가 이익예측 정보의 정확성이 낮았고, 더불어 미청구공사 보고금액의 수준이 높아질 경우 재무분석가 이익예측 정보의 정확성이 감소됨을 확인하였다. 미청구공사 계정은 수주업체 수익(진행률) 인식이 발주자의 수익 인정 시점(실제진척도) 보다 먼저 인식될 경우 생성된다. 이는 진행률 측정 시 경영자의 재량적인 판단과 추정이 가능하기 때문이며, 결국 실제진척도와 진행률의 차이는 재무제표의 예측가치를 하락시킨다. 따라서 진행기준에 의한 수익인식 방법을 적용 시 미청구공사 잔액을 보고한 기업의 경우, 재무분석가의 이익예측은 보다 어려울 수 있음을 본 연구의 결과가 보여준다. 추가적으로 미청구공사 계정잔액을 보고한 기업은 재무분석가의 이익예측 성향이 낙관적인 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 경영자에게는 실제진척도를 반영할 수 있는 진행률 측정 방식의 도입과 더불어 진행률 측정시에 자의적인 조정과 추정을 줄이는 노력을 제안하며, 투자자들에게는 수주산업의 진행기준 회계처리의 특성을 감안한 투자와 분석을 권고한다. 아울러 본 연구의 결과는 정책당국의 수주산업 회계투명성 제고 방안에도 힘을 실어 준다.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.280-286
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• 2019

본 연구는 수익비용대응이 정보비대칭을 감소시키는지 먼저 살펴보고 이익지속성과 정보비대칭에 미치는 영향을 검증한다. 경영자와 정보이용자간에 정보비대칭이 존재하는 상황에서 경영자는 이익의 질을 높임으로써 정보비대칭을 감소시킬 수 있다. 정보비대칭은 재무분석가의 이익예측분산으로 측정한다. 선행연구의 결과를 살펴볼 때, 수익비용대응이 높을수록 정보비대칭이 감소하는지를 살펴보고, 수익비용대응이 높은 경우 이익지속성과 정보비대칭간에 음(-)의 관련성이 나타나는지를 검증한다. 연구결과, 수익비용대응이 높은 기업들은 정보비대칭이 감소하는 결과를 보였다. 높은 수익비용대응이 수행된 이익의 지속성은 재무분석가의 이익예측분산을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 수익비용대응이 잘 이루어질수록 이익의 질이 개선되고 기업의 불확실성에 대한 정보위험이 감소되는 것을 의미한다. 본 연구는 높은 수익비용대응이 수행된 이익의 지속성이 정보비대칭을 감소시키는지를 분석했다는 점에서 선행연구와 차별성을 가진다. 경영자가 적절한 수익비용대응을 수행하여 정보비대칭을 감소시킨다는 본 연구의 결과는 회계이익정보를 활용하는 이해관계자들에게 추가적인 시사점을 제공할 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.29-36
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• 2020

Stock price multiple is one of the most well-known equity valuation technique used to forecast equity price. It measures by multiplying "the ratio of stock price to a value driver" by a value driver. The value driver can be earning per share (EPS), sales or other financial measurements. The objective of price multiple technique is to evaluate the value of assets and compare how similar assets are priced in the market. Although stock price multiple technique is common in financial filed, studies on the application of the technique in Thailand is still limited. The present study is conducted to serve three major objectives. The first objective is to apply the technique to measure value of firms in banking sector in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The second objective is to develop composite price multiple index to forecast equity prices. The third objective is to compare valuation accuracy of different value drivers of price multiple (i.e. EPS, Earnings Growth, Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization, Sales, Book Value and Composite Index) in forecasting equity prices. Results indicated that EPS is the most accurate value drivers of price multiple used to forecast equity price of firms in baking sector.