• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제8D권2호
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• pp.175-180
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• 2001

본 논문은 미래의 소프크웨어 공장 수나 고장시간 예측 정확성을 얻기 위해, 뉴로-피지 시스템을 이용할 경우 최적의 검증 데이터 할당 비율에 대한 연구이다. 훈련 데이터가 주어졌을 때, 과소 적합과 과잉 적합을 회피하면서 최적의 일반화 능력을 얻기 취해 Early Stopping 방법이 일반적으로 사용되고 있다. 그러나 훈련과 검증 데이터로 얼마나 많은 데이터를 할당갈 것인가는 시행착오법을 이용해 경험적으로 해를 구해야만 하며, 과다한 시간이 소요된다. 최적의 검증 데이터 양을 구하기 위해 규칙 수를 증가시키면서 다양한 검증 데이터 양을 할당하였다. 실험결과 최소의 검증 데이터로도 좋은 예측 능력을 보였다. 이 결과는 뉴로-퍼지 시스템을 소프트웨어 신뢰성 분야에 적용시 실질직언 지침을 제공할 수 있는 것이다.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.103-111
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• 2023

건설 프로젝트의 초기단계에서 공사비를 정확하게 예측하는 것은 프로젝트를 성공적으로 수행하기 위해 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 ANFIS 모델을 활용하여 건설프로젝트의 초기단계에 건축공사비를 예측할 수 있는 모델을 제시하였다. 모델의 활용도를 높이기 위해 공개된 공사비 데이터를 활용하였으며 프로젝트 초기단계의 제한된 정보를 바탕으로 예측할 수 있는 모델을 제시하고자 하였다. ANFIS와 관련된 기존 연구를 분석하여 최근의 동향을 파악하였으며 ANFIS의 기본 구조를 고찰한 후 건축공사비 예측을 위한 ANFIS 모델을 제시하였다. ANFIS의 모델의 소속함수의 종류와 개수에 따라 달라지는 예측 성능을 분석하여 가장 성능이 우수한 모델을 제시하였으며, 대표적인 기계학습 모델의 예측 정확도와 비교분석하였다. 적용결과 ANFIS 모델을 다른 기계학습 모델과 비교한 결과 동등 이상으로 성능을 나타내 프로젝트 초기단계 공사비 예측에 적용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권7호
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• pp.3018-3038
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• 2020

In the stereoscopic or multiview display, the depth video illustrates visual distances between objects and camera. To promote the computational efficiency of depth video encoder, we exploit the intra prediction of depth videos under Versatile Video Coding (VVC) and observe a diverse distribution of intra prediction modes with different coding unit sizes. We propose a hybrid scheme to further boost fast depth video coding. In the first stage, we adaptively predict the HADamard (HAD) costs of intra prediction modes and initialize a candidate list according to the HAD costs. Then, the candidate list is further improved by considering the probability distribution of candidate modes with different CU sizes. Finally, early termination of CU splitting is performed at each CU depth level based on the Bayesian theorem. Our proposed method is incorporated into VVC intra prediction for fast coding of depth videos. Experiments with 7 standard sequences and 4 Quantization parameters (Qps) validate the efficiency of our method.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.187-198
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• 2019

Purpose: In this study, a reliability prediction based reliability growth management is suggested especially for the early development phase of a system and the case study of surveillance system is given. Methods: The proposed reliability prediction based reliability growth management procedures consists of 7 Steps. In Step 1, the stages for reliability growth management are classified according to the major design changes. From Step 2 to Step 5, system reliability is predicted based on reliability structures and the predicted reliabilities of subsystems (Level 2) and modules (Level 3). At each stage, by comparing the predicted system reliability with that of the previous stage, the reliability growth of the system is checked in Step 6. In Step 7, when the predicted value of sustem reliability does not satisfy the reliability goal, some design alternatives are considered and suggested to improve the system reliability. Results: The proposed reliability prediction based reliability growth management can be an efficient alternative for managing reliability growth of a system in its early development phase. The case study shows that it is applicable to weapon system such as a surveillance system. Conclusion: In this study, the procedures for a reliability prediction based reliability growth management are proposed to satisfy the reliability goal of the system efficiently. And it is expected that the use of the proposed procedures would reduce, in the test and evaluation phase, the number of corrective actions and its cost as well.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.91-102
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• 2007

대청호와 같이 규모가 큰 인공호수에서의 유해조류 발생을 사전에 예측하고 대응하기 위해서는 생물 화학적 연구와 더불어 GIS, RS 기술을 활용하는 지역분석 전산시스템의 개발도 필요하다. 이 논문의 목표는 대청호에서의 유해조류 생산을 저감시키기 위하여 남조류의 발생에 대한 예보모델을 개발하고 GIS를 기반으로 한 남조류 발생 조기예보시스템을 개발하는 것이다. 이를 위해 대청호에서의 남조류 발생과 환경인자와의 관계에 대한 선행연구 사례들을 분석하였으며, 그 결과 남조류 예보모델 개발을 위해 사용할 환경인자로서 강수와 기온을 선정하였다. 선정한 환경인자와 남조류 발생과의 정성적 상관관계 분석결과를 토대로 대청호의 남조류발생을 수역별로 예측할 수 있는 Rump 모델을 개발하였는데, 이 예보모델은 남조류의 최초발생시기와 급성장시기에 대한 예측이 가능하다. 개발된 예보모델은 GIS를 기반으로 한 남조류 대발생 조기예보시스템에 적용하였으며, 그 결과 대청호에서의 남조류 대발생을 예측하고 관련 자료들을 관리할 수 있는 지리정보시스템이 개발되었다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2024

In order to prevent accidents via defective ammunition, this paper analyzes recent research on ammunition life prediction methodology. This workanalyzes current shelf-life prediction approaches by comparing the pros and cons of physical modeling, accelerated testing, and statistical analysis-based prediction techniques. Physical modeling-based prediction demonstrates its usefulness in understanding the physical properties and interactions of ammunition. Accelerated testing-based prediction is useful in quickly verifying the reliability and safety of ammunition. Additionally, statistical analysis-based prediction is emphasized for its ability to make decisions based on data. This paper aims to contribute to the early detection of defective ammunition by analyzing ammunition life prediction methodology hereby reducing defective ammunition accidents. In order to prepare not only Korean domestic war situation but also the international affairs from Eastern Europe and Mid East countries, it is very important to enhance the stability of organizations using ammunition and reduce costs of potential accidents.

• 전자통신동향분석
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.80-88
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• 2020

This paper describes the development trends and service provision examples of disaster occurrence and spread prediction technology for various disasters such as tsunamis, floods, and fires. In terms of fires, we introduce the WIFIRE system, which predicts the spread of large forest fires in the United States, and the Metro21: Smart Cities Institute project, which predicts the risk of building fires. This paper describes the development trends in tsunami prediction technology in the United States and Japan using artificial intelligence (AI) to predict the occurrence and size of tsunamis that cause great damage to coastal cities in Japan, Indonesia, and the United States. In addition, it introduces the NOAA big data platform built for natural disaster prediction, considering that the use of big data is very important for AI-based disaster prediction. In addition, Google's flood forecasting system, domestic and overseas earthquake early warning system development, and service delivery cases will be introduced.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.783-793
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to apply the machine and deep learning methodology on error terms which are continuously auto-generated on the sensors with specific time period and prove the improvement effects of power generator prediction diagnosis system by comparing detection ability. Methods: The SVM(Support Vector Machine) and MLP(Multi Layer Perception) learning procedures were applied for predicting the target values and sequentially producing the error terms for confirming the detection improvement effects of suggested application. For checking the effectiveness of suggested procedures, several detection methodologies such as Cusum and EWMA were used for the comparison. Results: The statistical analysis result shows that without noticing the sequential trivial changes on current diagnosis system, suggested approach based on the error term diagnosis is sensing the changes in the very early stages. Conclusion: Using pattern of error terms as a diagnosis tool for the safety control process with SVM and MLP learning procedure, unusual symptoms could be detected earlier than current prediction system. By combining the suggested error term management methodology with current process seems to be meaningful for sustainable safety condition by early detecting the symptoms.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1998년도 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부 C
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• pp.910-912
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• 1998

In this paper, we purpose automatic diagnosis in online, as the fundamental study to diagnose the partial discharge mechanism and to predict the lifetime, by introduction a neural network. In the proposed method, Ire use acoustic emission sensing system and calculate a fixed quantity statistic operator by pulse number and amplitude. Using statically operators such as the center of gravity(G) and the gradient of the discharge distribute(C), we analyzed the early stage and the middle stage. the fixed quantity statistic operators are learned by a neural network. The diagnosis of insulation degradation and a lifetime prediction by the early stage time are achieved. On the basis of revealed excellent diagnosis ability through the neural network learning for the patterns during degradation, it was proved that the neural network is appropriate for degradation diagnosis and lifetime prediction in partial discharge.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.463-467
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• 2015

Mega-shock means a sporadic event such as the earning shock, which occurred by sudden market changes, and it can cause serious problems of profit loss of international construction projects. Therefore, the early response and prevention by analyzing and predicting the Mega-shock is critical for successful project delivery. This research is preliminary study to develop a prediction model that supports market condition analysis and Mega-shock forecasting. To avoid disadvantages of classic statistical approaches that assume the market factors are linear and independent and thus have limitations to explain complex interrelationship among a range of international market factors, the research team explored the Fractal Theory that can explain self-similarity and recursiveness of construction market changes. The research first found out correlation of the major market factors by statistically analyzing time-series data. The research then conducted a base of the Fractal analysis to distinguish features of fractal from data. The outcome will have potential to contribute to building up a foundation of the early shock warning system for the strategic international project management.