• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권1호
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• pp.31-43
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• 2017

Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to store water resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2) were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interaction between cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model, reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severe than past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirs showed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growing season in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for the upcoming drought.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권9호
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• pp.813-824
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 가뭄지수를 이용하여 북한지역의 가뭄분석을 수행하였다. 분석 대상지점으로는 평양 등 27개 지점을 선정하였으며, 월 강수량 및 평균기온 자료를 수집하여 분석에 이용하였다. 가뭄분석을 위한 가뭄지수로는 SC-PDSI를 이용하였으며, 27개 지점별로 1984~2013년(30년)의 월 단위 가뭄지수를 산정하였다. 가뭄지수를 이용하여 과거 가뭄에 대해 검토한 결과, 대부분의 지점에서 2000년대 초반과 중반에 심각한 가뭄이 발생하였음을 확인할 수 있었다. 북한의 과거 가뭄사상에 대한 정량적 평가를 위해 6개 지점(평양, 함흥, 청진, 원산, 해주, 신의주)을 대상으로 지속기간별 최대 가뭄심도 자료계열을 구성하였으며, 빈도분석을 통해 지점별 가뭄심도-지속기간-재현기간(Severity-Duration-Frequency, SDF) 곡선을 유도하였다. 6개 지점의 과거 주요 가뭄사상을 추출한 후 SDF 곡선을 이용하여 각 사상별 재현기간을 추정한 결과, 2000년대 초반과 중반에 발생했던 가뭄은 최대 20~50년의 재현기간을 갖는 가뭄사상인 것으로 나타났다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.107-115
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• 2003

이 연구는 위성 영상을 이용하여 경작지에 나타나는 2001년 봄가뭄의 가뭄심도를 탐지하였다. 우리나라에 매년 피해를 주는 봄가뭄은 주로 기상학적 가뭄지수에 의해 모니터링되기 때문에 미시적 차원에서의 가뭄 현황 파악이 어렵다. 따라서, 각 경지에 대한 지표특성을 반영해주는 가뭄의 국지적 연구가 필요하다. 이 연구는 농작물 생육과 성장에 가장 큰 영향을 주는 토양수분을 지표로 2001년의 농업적 가뭄에 대해 분석하였다. 특히, 태슬 모자형(Tasseled cap)변환과 지형적 요인들을 이용하여 가뭄의 정도와 공간적 분포를 탐지하였다. 연구지역의 가뭄분석에서 Landsat 7 ETM/sub ＋/ 영상의 태슬 모자형 변환을 통해 추출된 수분 지수가 농경지의 가뭄 민감도를 잘 나타내었다. 수분지수는 다양한 토양 수분의 정도를 잘 표현해 주기 때문에, 수분 지수로 가뭄의 심도를 확인 할 수 있었다. 특히, -0.2 이하의 수분지수 값이 나타내는 화소(Pixel)들은 2001년 봄가뭄으로 심각한 용수부족피해를 겪고 있던 경작지로 나타났다. 그 화소들과 지형변수를 이용하여 가뭄심도를 구하는 모델을 구현하였다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제39권5호
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• pp.561-568
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• 2019

최근 우리나라는 기후변화 영향으로 극심한 가뭄으로 인한 피해가 발생하고 있다. 따라서 가뭄에 대한 완화대책을 마련하기 위해서는 가뭄 위험도의 변화를 분석할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 관측 강수량 자료와 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 강수량 자료를 활용하여 극한가뭄에 대한 수문학적 위험도를 평가하였다. 먼저, 임계수준방법으로 가뭄사상을 정의하고 풀링을 통하여 미소가뭄을 제거하여 도출한 가뭄 지속기간 및 심도를 대상으로 이변량 가뭄빈도분석을 실시하였다. 극한가뭄사상에 대한 수문학적 위험도를 산정한 결과, RCP 4.5 시나리오에서 위험도가 가장 높은 지역은 전라북도이며 과거보다 51 % 증가하였다. 또한, RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 위험도가 가장 높은 지역은 강원도이며 과거보다 47 % 증가하였다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제63권5호
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• pp.95-105
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• 2021

Drought is a disaster that causes prolonged and wide scale damage. Recently, the severity and frequency of drought occurrences, and drought damage have been increased significantly due to climate change. As a result, a quantitative study of drought factors is needed to better understand and prevent future droughts. In the case of agricultural drought, several existing studies examine the economic damage caused by droughts and their causes, but these studies are not well suited to estimating crop-oriented agricultural drought damage and the factors that absolutely affect agricultural drought. This study determines which factors most affect agricultural drought. It examines meteorological factors and those related to agricultural water supplied by irrigation facilities. Rice paddy production per unit area is lower than the average from the last two years where agricultural drought occurred. We compare the relative frequency of agricultural drought impacts with irrigation facilities, effective reservoir storage, the number of water supply facilities, and the meteorological drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To identify factors that affect agricultural drought, we correlate rice paddy production anomalies with irrigation water supply for the past two years. There was a high positive correlation between rice paddy production and irrigation water usage, and there was a low or moderate negative correlation between rice paddy production anomalies compared to the average of the past two years and SPI. As a result, agricultural water supply by irrigation facilities was judged to be more influential than meteorological factors in rice paddy production. This study is expected to help local governments establish policies related to agricultural drought response.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.28-36
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• 2018

This study was conducted to estimate groundwater reserves within a designated depth. Three methods were applied to one representative county in southern Gyeongsang province, South Korea, to estimate the groundwater reserves in the aquifers. Estimated amounts of groundwater reserves in the region ranged from $20.2{\times}10^9m^3$ to $68.7{\times}10^9m^3$ (average $37.9{\times}10^9m^3$). Groundwater recharge obtained with a recharge ratio of 16.6% was $1.1{\times}10^9m^3/year$. Exploitable groundwater with an assumption of decadal-cycle minimal rainfall of 977.0 mm/year was approximated as 72% ($0.8{\times}10^9m^3/year$) of the total replenished water by recharge. The volume of recharge and exploitable water accounted for only 1.1% and 0.8% of groundwater reserves, respectively, which indicates substantial capacity of the reservoir to supply groundwater in an event of unexpected droughts. Nonetheless, each groundwater well should strictly comply with its allocated pumping rate to avoid alluvial groundwater depletion.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.103-117
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• 2021

The severe effects of climate change, such as global warming and the El Niño phenomenon, have become more prevalent. In recent years, natural disasters such as drought, heavy rain, and typhoons have taken place, resulting in noticeable damage. Korea is affected by droughts that cause damage to rice fields and crops. Societal interest in droughts is growing, and measures are urgently needed to address their impacts. As the demand for high-quality agricultural products expands, farmers have become more interested in water management, and the demand for field irrigation is increasing. Therefore, we investigated water demand in the irrigation of drought-vulnerable crops. Specifically, we determined the water requirements for crops including cabbage, red pepper, apple, and bean in four regions by calculating the consumptive water use (evapotranspiration), effective rainfall, and irrigation capacity. The total consumptive water use (crop evapotranspiration) estimates for Dangjin-si (cabbage), Yesan-gun (apple), Cheongyang-gun (pepper) in Chungnam, and Goesan-gun (bean) in Chungbuk were 33.5, 206.4, 86.1, and 204.5 mm, respectively. The volumes of groundwater available in the four regions were determined to be the following: Dangjin-si, 4,968,000 m³; Yesan-gun, 4,300,000 m³; Cheongyang-gun, 1,114,000 m³, and Goesan-gun, 3,794,000 m³. The annual amounts available for the representative crops, compared to the amount of evapotranspiration, were 313.9% in Dangjin-si, 29.5% in Yesan-gun, 56.1% in Cheongyang-gun, and 20.1% in Goesan-gun.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• 제63권1호
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• pp.77-90
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• 2021

This study aimed to assess the impact of abnormal climate events on the production of Italian ryegrass (IRG), such as autumn low-temperature, severe winter cold and spring droughts in the central inland, southern inland and southern coastal regions. Seasonal climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and sunshine duration, were used to set the abnormal climate events using principal component analysis, and the abnormal climate events were distinguished from normal using Euclidean-distance cluster analysis. Furthermore, to estimate the impact caused by abnormal climate events, the dry matter yield (DMY) of IRG between abnormal and normal climate events was compared using a t-test with 5% significance level. As a result, the impact to the DMY of IRG by abnormal climate events in the central inland of Korea was significantly large in order of severe winter cold, spring drought, and autumn low-temperature. In the southern inland regions, severe winter cold was also the most serious abnormal event. These results indicate that the severe cold is critical to IRG in inland regions. Meanwhile, in the southern coastal regions, where severe cold weather is rare, the spring drought was the most serious abnormal climate event. In particular, since 2005, the frequency of spring droughts has tended to increase. In consideration of the trend and frequency of spring drought events, it is likely that drought becomes a NEW NORMAL during spring in Korea. This study was carried out to assess the impact of seasonal abnormal climate events on the DMY of IRG, and it can be helpful to make a guideline for its vulnerability.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.209-217
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• 2021

산불은 대부분 인위적인 원인에 의해 발생되지만, 산불의 피해가 대규모로 확산하는 연소 조건은 자연현상에 의해 영향을 받게 된다. 본 연구에서는 여러 인자 사이의 의존 및 인과관계를 분석할 수 있는 부분최소제곱 구조방정식 모형(PLS-SEM)을 이용하여 기상 및 가뭄이 산불 발생에 미치는 인과관계와 영향 정도를 평가하였다. 그 결과 지난 2015년부터 약 5년 기간 동안 발생한 강원도 산불에 미치는 가뭄의 영향은 27 %, 기상학적 영향은 38 %로 확인되었다. 또한, 강원도에서 발생한 산불 중에서 봄철에 발생한 산불은 약 60 %의 비율을 차지하며, 이는 기상학적 요인과 더불어 이전 연도의 가을과 겨울철 가뭄이 산불 발생에 영향을 미치는 것으로 해석된다. 산불 발생위험을 평가하는 데 있어 극심한 기상학적 가뭄이 가을과 겨울철에 발생했다면, 이듬해 봄에는 산불의 발생확률은 증가할 가능성이 있다.