• 유통과학연구
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.15-23
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• 2018

Purpose - This paper aims to explore the distribution and application of community-based disaster risk information and employ a case study as a qualitative research method to make some implications and suggestions for disaster management in the future. Research design, data, and methodology - This research has basically adopted an idiographic approaches to examine the basic policy of integrated flood risk management of Shiga prefecture in Japan. The methodology is based on a retrospective analysis, which starts from critical events and traces backwards processes to find out what goes well or wrong. Results - The results of this paper support that the multiple stakeholders in a community have to share and distribute disaster risk information in the proper time. The distribution and application of community-based disaster risk information cannot be overemphasized in that the local communities are culturally rich in traditional flood management knowledge, have voluntary organizations and have enjoyed mutual support and human network to cope with floods. Conclusions - The study results also imply that local residents of the community will be abe to have an important role in coping with natural disasters, which involves more proactive actions than passive actions for the enhancement of disaster management.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.55-66
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• 2016

Purpose - This article aims to explore the characteristics of disaster risk distribution information in China. Also, this research attempts to analyze the findings of risk communication using case study in chronological order in terms of social amplification of risk. To achieve the purpose, the paper reviews the trends and issues of risk communication in China, with an emphasis on examining earthquakes by a chronological approach. In these regards, we hope that some relevant findings from this empirical study with cases will be able to enhance national risk communication and provide implications in Korea as well. Research design, data, and methodology - The conceptual framework of this study is theoretically based on the risk amplification model, which describes signals about risk transmitted and processed by individuals and social groups. The social amplification of risk also reflects the interactions of social groups about disaster-related risk issues, which are potential amplifiers or attenuators of communication signals. The key concept of social amplification implies that the risks pertaining to natural disasters interact with social, psychological, institutional, and cultural processes in ways that can affect public perceptions of risk. SMCRE Model is methodologically employed to examine risk communication history of China with the focus on natural disaster. Four earthquakes are selected to figure out the chronological characteristics of risk communication since 1970s. He bei Tang Shan earthquake is selected as an example disaster before 1990's, while the earthquake in Yun Nan Jiang is explored for the case study of 1990's. The earthquake in Si Chuan Wen Chuan is also examined as a example disaster of 2000's. The recent earthquake in Si Chuan Ya An Lu Shan is selected as a case of 2010s. Results - SMCRE model in this case study is operationally defined as a methodology and applied to the four earthquakes occurred in China. SMCRE model describes the exchange of risk information and is also applied to all forms of communication between stake holders. Each factor of risk communication includes source, message, channel, receiver and effect. It is notable that a big progress has been made on disaster risk communication in China for the past 40 years. We also found that highly developed information technology has enabled Chinese society to better cope with natural disaster, leading to enhanced disaster risk communication. It is mainly found from case study that the disaster risk communication of China has been involved with political situation, which derived from the change of government for the past 40 years. Conclusion - From this historical research, it can be inferred that the policies and politics of Chinese leaders have had a more critical role to play in the process of source of risk communication than those of any other countries. The results of this paper also support that the effective risk communication involves not only the improved reliability of local government as a key factor of disaster risk communication, but also is accompanied by international cooperation for substantial collaboration with stake holders.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.16-26
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• 1997

China is one of the few countries where natural disaster strike frequently and cause heavy damage. In this paper, we mathematically develop two models to assess fuzzy risk of natural disaster in China. One is to assess the risk based on database of historical disaster effects by using information diffusion method relevant in fuzzy information analysis. In another model, we give an overview over advanced method to calculate the risk of release, exposure and consequence assessent, where information distribution technique is used to calculate basic fuzzy relationships showing historical experience of natural disasters, and fuzzy approximate inference is employed to study loss risk based on these basic relationships. We also present an examples to show how to use the first model. Result show that the model is effective for natural disaster risk assessment.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.319-328
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• 2021

연구목적: 최근 대형 사회재난이 발생하면서 사회재난 안전도 진단에 대한 필요성이 요구되며 행정안전부에서 지역 안전지수, 국가안전대진단 등 지역의 안전도 등급을 계산하여 매년 공표하고 있다. 기존의 안전도 진단 시스템은 등간격 혹은 정규분포를 이용해서 획일화된 방법으로 등급화를 진행하여 위험지도를 작성하고 있다. 연구방법: 하지만 등간격 기법은 위험등급을 객관적으로 분석할 수 있지만 분포가 한쪽에 치우쳐있는 경우 위험등급을 분류하는데 한계가 있으며 z-score 기법은 모집단이 정규분포를 따르지 않으면 신뢰도가 떨어지는 문제가 있다. 지표별로 통계 데이터의 분포가 상이하기 때문에 데이터 분포별로 가장 적합한 등급화를 적용해야한다. 연구결과: 따라서 본 논문에서는 재난 지표의 데이터를 분석하여 각 지표마다 최적화된 등급화를 진행하고자 기존의 등간격 기법과 네츄럴브레이크 기법을 비교 및 적합한 방법을 제시하였다. 결론: 그 결과 기존의 등급화 기법과 다르게 적용된 것은 6새 지표 중 3개에 해당하였다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.89-98
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• 2016

Purpose - This article tackles risk communication issues and aims to address the characteristics of MERS risk information distribution in South Korea, and secondly to examine the communicative behavior of the public health authority in terms of the quality of communication strategies. Thirdly, the study attempts to figure out the risk communication to cope with MERS through the applications of SMCRE model in chronological order. We employ the social amplification of risk framework for analyzing the emergent public response as one of the main approaches. Research Design, Data and Methodology - The main framework of this study is theoretically based on the social amplification of risk, which describes signals about risk transmitted and processed by individuals and social groups. The model also reflects the interactions between social groups and institutes about disaster-related risk issues, which are potential amplifiers or attenuators of communication signals. S-M-C-R-E Model is methodologically employed to examine the social amplification for MERS risk information in each period, which we defined operationally. The proposed methodology allows the assessment of effectiveness and ineffectiveness on risk communication to be conceptualized as a countermeasure against disasters. The paper focuses on exploring how social risk amplification can be applied and organized in each stage. Results - The SMCRE model describes the exchange of risk information and is also applied to all forms of communication between stakeholders including public health authority, local government and media. Each factor of risk communication includes source, message, channel, receiver and effect. The results support that the effective risk communication involves not only the improved reliability of public health authority as a key factor of risk communication, but also a close cooperation and good collaboration with local governments. It does not seem to be possible that the government-initiated risk communication based on controllability and management cope effectively with infectious disease in early stage. The results of this study imply that the shared risks between local, regional and national authorities can enhance risk communication system. Conclusions - The study supports that the disparities in how disaster-related risk information is interpreted and coded, have made effective risk communication and public sense-making impeded. Our findings support a more communicative discussion about the role of risk information sharing between governments for the improvement of emergency management and underline the importance of social elements in the risk communication, such as relationship and trust building. Findings suggest that trust building between stakeholders could be added to help explain the processes of social amplification and attenuation of risk. It would be recommended that the continuous risk communication with all the involved stakeholders will be able to help national health promotion policy to be improved regarding emergency management. Furthermore, risk communication has to be a scientific approach for the communication pertaining to potentially sensitive or controversial situations with public concerns and low public trust.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.67-82
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• 2008

Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2010년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.16-24
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• 2010

This paper introduces the applications of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), which is developed by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE). Seismic disaster simulation technology (SDST) integrates geographical information system to assess the distribution of ground shaking intensity, ground failure probability, building damages, casualties, post-quake fires, debris, lifeline interruptions, economic losses, etc. given any set of seismic source parameters. The SDST may integrate with Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information Release System (TREIRS) developed by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) to obtain valuable information soon after large earthquakes and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources more efficiently. The SDST may also integrate with probabilistic seismic source model to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss, probable maximum loss in one event, and exceeding probability curves of various kinds of losses, to help proposing feasible countermeasures and risk management strategies.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.42-50
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• 2016

In case of a emergency situation or a natural disaster, a warning notification system is an essential tool to notify at-risk people in advance and provide them useful information to survive the event. Although some systems have been proposed such as emergency alert system using android, SMS, or P2P overlay network, these works mainly focus on a reliable message distribution methods. In this paper, we proposed a novel design and implementation of a personalized warning notification system to help inform not only the at-risk people but also their family and friends about the coming disaster as well as escape plan and survival information. The system consists of three main modules: the user selection module, the knowledge based message generator, and message distribution modules. The user selection module collects the list of people involved in the event and sorts them based on their level of involvement (their location, working position and social relationships). The knowledge based message generator provides each person with a personalized message that is concise and contains only the necessary information for the particular person based on their working position and their involvement in the event. The message distribution module will then find a best path for sending the personalized messages based on trustiness of locations since network failures may exist in a disaster event. Additionally, the system also have a comprehensive database and an interactive web interface for both user and system administrator. For evaluation, the system was implemented and demonstrated successfully with a building on fire scenario.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제25권9호
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• pp.1311-1322
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• 2016

Since the scale and disaster characteristics of volcanic eruptions are determined by their geological features, it is important not only to grasp the current states of the volcanoes in neighboring countries around the Korean Peninsula, but also to analyze the tectonic settings, tectonic regions, geological features, volcanic types, and past eruptional histories of these volcanoes. We created a database of 285 volcanoes around the Korean Peninsula, and then identified a high-risk groups of 29 volcanoes that are highly likely to affect the region, based on conditions such as volcanic activity, the type of rocks at risk of eruption, the distance from Seoul, and high VEI (volcanic explosivity index). In addition, we identified the 10 volcanoes that should be given the highest priority. We selected them through an analysis of data available in literature, such as volcanic ash dispersion results from previous Japanese eruptions, the definition of a large-scale volcano used by Japan's Cabinet Office, and examination of cumulative magma layer volumes from Japan's quaternary volcanoes.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.132-144
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• 2023

최근 기후변화 기온상승 따른 폭염의 발생 빈도와 강도가 증가하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 정부가 채택한 기후변화 재해취약성분석에 따른 폭염 재해취약성분석과 최근 IPCC에서 강조하고 있는 재해평가 방법인 리스크 평가라는 두 가지의 폭염재해 평가를 부산광역시 폭염을 대상으로 평가과정과 평가결과를 비교하고 시사점을 도출하고자하였다. 기후변화 재해취약성분석은 정부에서 마련한 매뉴얼과 가이드라인을 기반으로 평가하고 있다. 리스크 평가는 재해발생가능성과 그 영향의 곱으로 평가될 수 있으며, 재해발생가능성을 산출함에 있어서 사전 정보를 활용하여 사후확률을 추론하는 베이지안 추정법을 기반으로 한 마르코브체인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 평가하고 있다. 분석 결과 부산광역시를 대상으로 한 두 가지 평가 결과는 폭염 취약 지역의 공간분포에서 다소 차이가 발생하였다. 기후변화에 따른 재해 취약 지역을 적절하게 평가하기 위해서는 기후변화 재해취약성분석과 리스크 평가의 분석 과정 및 결과를 살펴보고 각각의 방법론에 대한 고려와 그에 맞는 대응을 마련해야하며, 이를 통해 장기적인 폭염 대응 방안을 마련할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.