• Title/Summary/Keyword: Digital climate map

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GIS-based Debris Flow Risk Assessment (GIS 기반 토석류 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Hanna;Kim, Gihong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.139-147
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    • 2023
  • As heavy precipitation rates have increased due to climate change, the risk of landslides has also become greater. Studies in the field of disaster risk assessment predominantly focus on evaluating intrinsic importance represented by the use or role of facilities. This work, however, focused on evaluating risks according to the external conditions of facilities, which were presented via debris flow simulation. A random walk model (RWM) was partially improved and used for the debris flow simulation. The existing RWM algorithm contained the problem of the simulation results being overly concentrated on the maximum slope line. To improve the model, the center cell height was adjusted and the inertia application method was modified. Facility information was collected from a digital topographic map layer. The risk level of each object was evaluated by combining the simulation result and the digital topographic map layer. A risk assessment technique suitable for the polygon and polyline layers was applied, respectively. Finally, by combining the evaluated risk with the attribute table of the layer, a system was prepared that could create a list of objects expected to be damaged, derive various statistics, and express the risk of each facility on a map. In short, we used an easy-to-understand simulation algorithm and proposed a technique to express detailed risk information on a map. This work will aid in the user-friendly development of a debris flow risk assessment system.

Uncertainty of Agrometeorological Advisories Caused by the Spatiotemporally Averaged Climate References (시공간평균 기준기후에 기인한 농업기상특보의 불확실성)

  • Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-Ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.120-129
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    • 2017
  • Agrometeorological advisories for farms and orchards are issued when daily weather exceeds a predefined range of the local reference climate, which is a long-term average of daily weather for the location. The reference climate at local scales is prepared by various simplification methods, resulting in uncertainty in the agrometeorological advisories. We restored daily weather data for the 1981-2010 period and analyzed the differences in prediction results of weather risk by comparing with the temporal and spatial simplified normal climate values. For this purpose, we selected the agricultural drought index (ADI) among various disaster related indices because ADI requires many kinds of weather data to calculate it. Ten rural counties within the Seomjin River Basin were selected for this study. The normal value of 'temporal simplification' was calculated by using the daily average value for 30 years (1981-2010). The normal value of 'spatial simplification' is the zonal average of the temporally simplified normal values falling within a standard watershed. For residual moisture index, temporal simplification normal values were overestimated, whereas spatial simplification normal values were underestimated in comparison with non-simplified normal values. The ADI's calculated from January to July 2017 showed a significant deviation in terms of the extent of drought depending on the normal values used. Through this study, we confirmed that the result of weather risk calculation using normal climatic values from 'simplified' methods can affect reliability of the agrometeorological advisories.

Large-Scale Slope Stability Analysis Using Climate Change Scenario (1): Methodologies (기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 광역 사면안정 해석(1): 방법론)

  • Choi, Byoung-Seub;Oh, Sung-Ryul;Lee, Kun-Hyuk;Lee, Gi-Ha;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.193-210
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to assess the slope stability variation of Jeollabuk-do drainage areas by RCM model outputs based on A1B climate change scenario and infinite slope stability model based on the specific catchment area concept. For this objective, we downscaled RCM data in time and space: from watershed scale to rain gauge scale in space and from monthly data to daily data in time and also developed the GIS-based infinite slope stability model based on the concept of specific catchment area to calculate spatially-distributed wetness index. For model parameterization, topographic, geologic, forestry digital map were used and model parameters were set up in format of grid cells($90m{\times}90m$). Finally, we applied the future daily rainfall data to the infinite slope stability model and then assess slope stability variation under the climate change scenario. This research consists of two papers: the first paper focuses on the methodologies of climate change scenario preparation and infinite slope stability model development.

A Prospect on the Changes in Short-term Cold Hardiness in "Campbell Early" Grapevine under the Future Warmer Winter in South Korea (남한의 겨울기온 상승 예측에 따른 포도 "캠벨얼리" 품종의 단기 내동성 변화 전망)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.94-101
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    • 2008
  • Warming trends during winter seasons in East Asian regions are expected to accelerate in the future according to the climate projection by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Warmer winters may affect short-term cold hardiness of deciduous fruit trees, and yet phenological observations are scant compared to long-term climate records in the regions. Dormancy depth, which can be estimated by daily temperature, is expected to serve as a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of flowering buds to low temperature in winter. In order to delineate the geographical pattern of short-term cold hardiness in grapevines, a selected dormancy depth model was parameterized for "Campbell Early", the major cultivar in South Korea. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HDDTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and site elevation). To generate relevant datasets for climatological normal years in the future, we combined a 25km-resolution, 2011-2100 temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario) with the 1971-2000 HD-DTM. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate geographical pattern of change in the cold-hardiness period (the number of days between endo- and forced dormancy release) across South Korea for the normal years (1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the cold-hardiness zone with 60 days or longer cold-tolerant period would diminish from 58% of the total land area of South Korea in 1971-2000 to 40% in 2011-2040, 14% in 2041-2070, and less than 3% in 2071-2100. This method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

Mapping Monthly Temperature Normals Across North Korea at a Landscape Scale (북한지역 평년의 경관규모 기온분포도 제작)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2011
  • This study was carried out to estimate monthly mean of daily maximum and minimum temperature across North Korea at a 30 m grid spacing for a climatological normal year (1971-2000) and the 4 decadal averages (1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010). A geospatial climate interpolation method, which has been successfully used to produce the so-called 'High-Definition Digital Climate Maps' (HD-DCM), was used in conjunction with the 27 North Korean and 17 South Korean synoptic data. Correction modules including local effects of cold air drainage, thermal belt, ocean, solar irradiance and urban heat island were applied to adjust the synoptic temperature data in addition to the lapse rate correction. According to the final temperature estimates for a normal year, North Korean winter is expected colder than South Korean winter by $7^{\circ}C$ in average, while the spatial mean summer temperature is lower by $3^{\circ}C$ than that for South Korea. Warming trend in North Korea for the recent 40 years (1971-2010) was most remarkable in spring and fall, showing a 7.4% increase in the land area with 15 or higher daily maximum temperature for April.

Preliminary Result of Uncertainty on Variation of Flowering Date of Kiwifruit: Case Study of Kiwifruit Growing Area of Jeonlanam-do (기후변화에 따른 국내 키위 품종 '해금'의 개화시기 변동과 전망에 대한 불확실성: 전남 키위 주산지역을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Jeong, Yeo Min;Cho, Youn-Sup;Chung, Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.42-54
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    • 2016
  • It is highly anticipated that warming temperature resulting from global climate change will affect the phenological pattern of kiwifruit, which has been commercially grown in Korea since the early 1980s. Here, we present the potential impacts of climate change on the variations of flowering day of a gold kiwifruit cultivar, Haegeum, in the Jeonnam Province, Korea. By running six global climate models (GCM), the results from this study emphasize the uncertainty in climate change scenarios. To predict the flowering day of kiwifruit, we obtained three parameters of the 'Chill-day' model for the simulation of Haegeum: $6.3^{\circ}C$ for the base temperature (Tb), 102.5 for chill requirement (Rc), and 575 for heat requirement (Rh). Two separate validations of the resulting 'Chill-day' model were conducted. First, direct comparisons were made between the observed flowering days collected from 25 kiwifruit orchards for two years (2014-15) and the simulated flowering days from the 'Chill-day' model using weather data from four weather stations near the 25 orchards. The estimation error between the observed and simulated flowering days was 5.2 days. Second, the model was simulated using temperature data extracted, for the 25 orchards, from a high-resolution digital temperature map, resulting in the error of 3.4 days. Using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios from six GCMs for the period of 2021-40, the future flowering days were simulated with the 'Chill-day' model. The predicted flowering days of Haegeum in Jeonnam were advanced more than 10 days compared to the present ones from multi-model ensemble, while some individual models resulted in quite different magnitudes of impacts, indicating the multi-model ensemble accounts for uncertainty better than individual climate models. In addition, the current flowering period of Haegeum in Jeonnam Province was predicted to expand northward, reaching over Jeonbuk and Chungnam Provinces. This preliminary result will provide a basis for the local impact assessment of climate change as more phenology models are developed for other fruit trees.

The Relationship Analysis between the Epicenter and Lineaments in the Odaesan Area using Satellite Images and Shaded Relief Maps (위성영상과 음영기복도를 이용한 오대산 지역 진앙의 위치와 선구조선의 관계 분석)

  • CHA, Sung-Eun;CHI, Kwang-Hoon;JO, Hyun-Woo;KIM, Eun-Ji;LEE, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the location of the epicenter of a medium-sized earthquake(magnitude 4.8) that occurred on January 20, 2007 in the Odaesan area with lineament features using a shaded relief map(1/25,000 scale) and satellite images from LANDSAT-8 and KOMPSAT-2. Previous studies have analyzed lineament features in tectonic settings primarily by examining two-dimensional satellite images and shaded relief maps. These methods, however, limit the application of the visual interpretation of relief features long considered as the major component of lineament extraction. To overcome some existing limitations of two-dimensional images, this study examined three-dimensional images, produced from a Digital Elevation Model and drainage network map, for lineament extraction. This approach reduces mapping errors introduced by visual interpretation. In addition, spline interpolation was conducted to produce density maps of lineament frequency, intersection, and length required to estimate the density of lineament at the epicenter of the earthquake. An algorithm was developed to compute the Value of the Relative Density(VRD) representing the relative density of lineament from the map. The VRD is the lineament density of each map grid divided by the maximum density value from the map. As such, it is a quantified value that indicates the concentration level of the lineament density across the area impacted by the earthquake. Using this algorithm, the VRD calculated at the earthquake epicenter using the lineament's frequency, intersection, and length density maps ranged from approximately 0.60(min) to 0.90(max). However, because there were differences in mapped images such as those for solar altitude and azimuth, the mean of VRD was used rather than those categorized by the images. The results show that the average frequency of VRD was approximately 0.85, which was 21% higher than the intersection and length of VRD, demonstrating the close relationship that exists between lineament and the epicenter. Therefore, it is concluded that the density map analysis described in this study, based on lineament extraction, is valid and can be used as a primary data analysis tool for earthquake research in the future.

Site Selection for Geologic Records of Extreme Climate Events based on Environmental Change and Topographic Analyses using Paleo Map for Myeongsanimni Coast, South Korea (고지도 기반 환경변화연구 및 지형분석을 통한 명사십리 해안의 제4기 연안지대 이상기후 퇴적기록 적지선정)

  • Kim, Jieun;Yu, Jaehyung;Yang, Dongyoon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.589-599
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    • 2014
  • This study selected optimal sites in Myeongsasimni located in west coast of Korea for stratigraphic research containing extreme climate event during quaternary period by spatio-temporal analyses of changes in sedimentary environment and land use employing 1918 topographic map, 2000 digital terrain map, 1976 and 2012 air photographies. The study area shows no significant changes in topographic characteristics that hilly areas with relatively large variations in elevation are distributed over north and south part of the study area, and sand dues are developed along the coast line. Moreover, flat low lying areas are located at the back side of the sand dues. The movement of surface run off and sediment loads shows two major trends of inland direction flow from back sides of sand dunes and outland direction flow from high terrains inland, and the two flows merge into the stream located in the center of the study area. Two sink with individual area of $0.2km^2$ are observed in Yongjeong-ri and Jaryong-ri which are located in south central part and south part of the study area, respectively. In addition, sea level change simulation reveals that $3.4km^2$ and $3.64km^2$ are inundated with 3 m of sea level rise in 1918 and 2000, respectively, and it would contribute to chase sea level change records preserved in stratigraphy. The inundated areas overlaps well with sink areas where it indicates the low lying areas located in south cental and south part of the study area are identical for sediment accumulation. The areas with minimal human impact on sediment records over last 100 years are $3.51km^2$ distributed over central and south part of the study area with the land use changes of mud and rice field in 1918 to rice field in 2012. The candidate sites of $0.15km^2$ in central part and $0.09km^2$ in south part are identified for preferable locations of geologic record of extreme climate events during quaternary period based on the overlay analysis of optimal sedimentary environment and land use changes.

Production and Spatiotemporal Analysis of High-Resolution Temperature-Humidity Index and Heat Stress Days Distribution (고해상도 온습도지수 및 고온 스트레스 일수 분포도의 제작과 이를 활용한 시공간적 변화 분석)

  • Dae Gyoon Kang;Dae-Jun Kim;Jin-Hee Kim;Eun-Jeong Yun;Eun-Hye Ban;Yong Seok Kim;Sera Jo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.446-454
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    • 2023
  • The impact of climate change on agriculture is substantial, especially as global warming is projected to lead to varying temperature and humidity patterns in the future. These changes pose a higher risk for both crops and livestock, exposing them to environmental stressors under altered climatic conditions. Specifically, as temperatures are expected to rise, the risk of heat stress is assessable through the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), derived from temperature and relative humidity data. This study involved the comparison of THI collected from 10 Korea Meteorological Administration ASOS stations spanning a 60-year period from 1961 to 2020. Moreover, high-resolution temperature and humidity distribution data from 1981 to 2020 were employed to generate high-resolution TH I distributions, analyzing temporal changes. Additionally, the number of days characterized by heat stress, derived from TH I, was compared over different time periods. Generally, TH I showed an upward trend over the past, albeit with varying rates across different locations. As TH I increased, the frequency of heat stress days also rose, indicating potential future cost increases in the livestock industry due to heat-related challenges. The findings emphasize the feasibility of evaluating heat stress risk in livestock using THI and underscore the need for research analyzing THI under future climate change scenarios.

Comparison of Three Kinds of Methods on Estimation of Forest Carbon Stocks Distribution Using National Forest Inventory DB and Forest Type Map (국가산림자원조사 DB와 임상도를 이용한 산림탄소저장량 공간분포 추정방법 비교)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Min;Roh, Young-Hee;Kim, Eun-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.69-85
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    • 2014
  • Carbon stocks of NFI plots can be accurately estimated using field survey information. However, an accurate estimation of carbon stocks in other unsurveyed sites is very difficult. In order to fill this gap, various spatial information can be used as an ancillary data. In South Korea, there is the 1:5,000 forest type map that was produced by digital air-photo interpretation and field survey. Because this map contains very detailed forest information, it can be used as the high-quality spatial data for estimating carbon stocks. In this study, we compared three upscaling methods based on the 1:5,000 forest type map and 5th national forest inventory data. Map algebra(method 1), RK(Regression Kriging)(method 2), and GWR(Geographically Weighted Regression)(method 3) were applied to estimate forest carbon stock in Chungcheong-nam Do and Daejeon metropolitan city. The range of carbon stocks from method 2(1.39~138.80 tonC/ha) and method 3(1.28~149.98 tonC/ha) were more similar to that of previous method(1.56~156.40 tonC/ha) than that of method 1(0.00~93.37 tonC/ha). This result shows that RK and GWR considering spatial autocorrelation can show spatial heterogeneity of carbon stocks. We carried out paired t-test for carbon stock data using 186 sample points to assess estimation accuracy. As a result, the average carbon stocks of method 2 and field survey method were not significantly different at p=0.05 using paired t-test. And the result of method 2 showed the lowest RMSE. Therefore regression kriging method is useful to consider spatial variations of carbon stocks distribution in rugged terrain and complex forest stand.