• Title/Summary/Keyword: Diagnostic Prediction Learning

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Comparative Study of AI Models for Reliability Function Estimation in NPP Digital I&C System Failure Prediction (원전 디지털 I&C 계통 고장예측을 위한 신뢰도 함수 추정 인공지능 모델 비교연구)

  • DaeYoung Lee;JeongHun Lee;SeungHyeok Yang
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • The nuclear power plant(NPP)'s Instrumentation and Control(I&C) system periodically conducts integrity checks for the maintenance of self-diagnostic function during normal operation. Additionally, it performs functionality and performance checks during planned preventive maintenance periods. However, there is a need for technological development to diagnose failures and prevent accidents in advance. In this paper, we studied methods for estimating the reliability function by utilizing environmental data and self-diagnostic data of the I&C equipment. To obtain failure data, we assumed probability distributions for component features of the I&C equipment and generated virtual failure data. Using this failure data, we estimated the reliability function using representative artificial intelligence(AI) models used in survival analysis(DeepSurve, DeepHit). And we also estimated the reliability function through the Cox regression model of the traditional semi-parametric method. We confirmed the feasibility through the residual lifetime calculations based on environmental and diagnostic data.

A Study on XAI-based Clinical Decision Support System (XAI 기반의 임상의사결정시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Yoon-Ae;Cho, Han-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2021
  • The clinical decision support system uses accumulated medical data to apply an AI model learned by machine learning to patient diagnosis and treatment prediction. However, the existing black box-based AI application does not provide a valid reason for the result predicted by the system, so there is a limitation in that it lacks explanation. To compensate for these problems, this paper proposes a system model that applies XAI that can be explained in the development stage of the clinical decision support system. The proposed model can supplement the limitations of the black box by additionally applying a specific XAI technology that can be explained to the existing AI model. To show the application of the proposed model, we present an example of XAI application using LIME and SHAP. Through testing, it is possible to explain how data affects the prediction results of the model from various perspectives. The proposed model has the advantage of increasing the user's trust by presenting a specific reason to the user. In addition, it is expected that the active use of XAI will overcome the limitations of the existing clinical decision support system and enable better diagnosis and decision support.

Intelligent Prediction System for Diagnosis of Agricultural Photovoltaic Power Generation (영농형 태양광 발전의 진단을 위한 지능형 예측 시스템)

  • Jung, Seol-Ryung;Park, Kyoung-Wook;Lee, Sung-Keun
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.859-866
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    • 2021
  • Agricultural Photovoltaic power generation is a new model that installs solar power generation facilities on top of farmland. Through this, it is possible to increase farm household income by producing crops and electricity at the same time. Recently, various attempts have been made to utilize agricultural solar power generation. Agricultural photovoltaic power generation has a disadvantage in that maintenance is relatively difficult because it is installed on a relatively high structure unlike conventional photovoltaic power generation. To solve these problems, intelligent and efficient operation and diagnostic functions are required. In this paper, we discuss the design and implementation of a prediction and diagnosis system to collect and store the power output of agricultural solar power generation facilities and implement an intelligent prediction model. The proposed system predicts the amount of power generation based on the amount of solar power generation and environmental sensor data, determines whether there is an abnormality in the facility, calculates the aging degree of the facility and provides it to the user.

Identifying Atrial Fibrillation With Sinus Rhythm Electrocardiogram in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: A Validation Study With Insertable Cardiac Monitors

  • Ki-Hyun Jeon;Jong-Hwan Jang;Sora Kang;Hak Seung Lee;Min Sung Lee;Jeong Min Son;Yong-Yeon Jo;Tae Jun Park;Il-Young Oh;Joon-myoung Kwon;Ji Hyun Lee
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.53 no.11
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    • pp.758-771
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    • 2023
  • Background and Objectives: Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major potential cause of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). However, identifying AF remains challenging because it occurs sporadically. Deep learning could be used to identify hidden AF based on the sinus rhythm (SR) electrocardiogram (ECG). We combined known AF risk factors and developed a deep learning algorithm (DLA) for predicting AF to optimize diagnostic performance in ESUS patients. Methods: A DLA was developed to identify AF using SR 12-lead ECG with the database consisting of AF patients and non-AF patients. The accuracy of the DLA was validated in 221 ESUS patients who underwent insertable cardiac monitor (ICM) insertion to identify AF. Results: A total of 44,085 ECGs from 12,666 patient were used for developing the DLA. The internal validation of the DLA revealed 0.862 (95% confidence interval, 0.850-0.873) area under the curve (AUC) in the receiver operating curve analysis. In external validation data from 221 ESUS patients, the diagnostic accuracy of DLA and AUC were 0.811 and 0.827, respectively, and DLA outperformed conventional predictive models, including CHARGE-AF, C2HEST, and HATCH. The combined model, comprising atrial ectopic burden, left atrial diameter and the DLA, showed excellent performance in AF prediction with AUC of 0.906. Conclusions: The DLA accurately identified paroxysmal AF using 12-lead SR ECG in patients with ESUS and outperformed the conventional models. The DLA model along with the traditional AF risk factors could be a useful tool to identify paroxysmal AF in ESUS patients.

Prediction Model for unfavorable Outcome in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage Based on Machine Learning

  • Shengli Li;Jianan Zhang;Xiaoqun Hou;Yongyi Wang;Tong Li;Zhiming Xu;Feng Chen;Yong Zhou;Weimin Wang;Mingxing Liu
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.67 no.1
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    • pp.94-102
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    • 2024
  • Objective : The spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remains a significant cause of mortality and morbidity throughout the world. The purpose of this retrospective study is to develop multiple models for predicting ICH outcomes using machine learning (ML). Methods : Between January 2014 and October 2021, we included ICH patients identified by computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging and treated with surgery. At the 6-month check-up, outcomes were assessed using the modified Rankin Scale. In this study, four ML models, including Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree C5.0, Artificial Neural Network, Logistic Regression were used to build ICH prediction models. In order to evaluate the reliability and the ML models, we calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Results : We identified 71 patients who had favorable outcomes and 156 who had unfavorable outcomes. The results showed that the SVM model achieved the best comprehensive prediction efficiency. For the SVM model, the AUC, accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, PLR, NLR, and DOR were 0.91, 0.92, 0.92, 0.93, 11.63, 0.076, and 153.03, respectively. For the SVM model, we found the importance value of time to operating room (TOR) was higher significantly than other variables. Conclusion : The analysis of clinical reliability showed that the SVM model achieved the best comprehensive prediction efficiency and the importance value of TOR was higher significantly than other variables.

Recurrent Neural Network based Prediction System of Agricultural Photovoltaic Power Generation (영농형 태양광 발전소에서 순환신경망 기반 발전량 예측 시스템)

  • Jung, Seol-Ryung;Koh, Jin-Gwang;Lee, Sung-Keun
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.825-832
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we discuss the design and implementation of predictive and diagnostic models for realizing intelligent predictive models by collecting and storing the power output of agricultural photovoltaic power generation systems. Our model predicts the amount of photovoltaic power generation using RNN, LSTM, and GRU models, which are recurrent neural network techniques specialized for time series data, and compares and analyzes each model with different hyperparameters, and evaluates the performance. As a result, the MSE and RMSE indicators of all three models were very close to 0, and the R2 indicator showed performance close to 1. Through this, it can be seen that the proposed prediction model is a suitable model for predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation, and using this prediction, it was shown that it can be utilized as an intelligent and efficient O&M function in an agricultural photovoltaic system.

Comparison of Prediction Accuracy Between Classification and Convolution Algorithm in Fault Diagnosis of Rotatory Machines at Varying Speed (회전수가 변하는 기기의 고장진단에 있어서 특성 기반 분류와 합성곱 기반 알고리즘의 예측 정확도 비교)

  • Moon, Ki-Yeong;Kim, Hyung-Jin;Hwang, Se-Yun;Lee, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.280-288
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    • 2022
  • This study examined the diagnostics of abnormalities and faults of equipment, whose rotational speed changes even during regular operation. The purpose of this study was to suggest a procedure that can properly apply machine learning to the time series data, comprising non-stationary characteristics as the rotational speed changes. Anomaly and fault diagnosis was performed using machine learning: k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest. To compare the diagnostic accuracy, an autoencoder was used for anomaly detection and a convolution based Conv1D was additionally used for fault diagnosis. Feature vectors comprising statistical and frequency attributes were extracted, and normalization & dimensional reduction were applied to the extracted feature vectors. Changes in the diagnostic accuracy of machine learning according to feature selection, normalization, and dimensional reduction are explained. The hyperparameter optimization process and the layered structure are also described for each algorithm. Finally, results show that machine learning can accurately diagnose the failure of a variable-rotation machine under the appropriate feature treatment, although the convolution algorithms have been widely applied to the considered problem.

Data-driven Model Prediction of Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms in the Nakdong River in Response to Increased Temperatures Under Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오의 기온상승에 따른 낙동강 남세균 발생 예측을 위한 데이터 기반 모델 시뮬레이션)

  • Gayeon Jang;Minkyoung Jo;Jayun Kim;Sangjun Kim;Himchan Park;Joonhong Park
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2024
  • Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (HCBs) are caused by the rapid proliferation of cyanobacteria and are believed to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the extent to which HCBs will be stimulated in the future due to increased temperature remains uncertain. This study aims to predict the future occurrence of cyanobacteria in the Nakdong River, which has the highest incidence of HCBs in South Korea, based on temperature rise scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used as the basis for these scenarios. Data-driven model simulations were conducted, and out of the four machine learning techniques tested (multiple linear regression, support vector regressor, decision tree, and random forest), the random forest model was selected for its relatively high prediction accuracy. The random forest model was used to predict the occurrence of cyanobacteria. The results of boxplot and time-series analyses showed that under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)), where temperature increases significantly, cyanobacterial abundance across all study areas was greatly stimulated. The study also found that the frequencies of HCB occurrences exceeding certain thresholds (100,000 and 1,000,000 cells/mL) increased under both the best-case scenario (RCP2.6 (2050)) and worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)). These findings suggest that the frequency of HCB occurrences surpassing a certain threshold level can serve as a useful diagnostic indicator of vulnerability to temperature increases caused by climate change. Additionally, this study highlights that water bodies currently susceptible to HCBs are likely to become even more vulnerable with climate change compared to those that are currently less susceptible.

Radiomics of Non-Contrast-Enhanced T1 Mapping: Diagnostic and Predictive Performance for Myocardial Injury in Acute ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

  • Quanmei Ma;Yue Ma;Tongtong Yu;Zhaoqing Sun;Yang Hou
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.535-546
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of texture analysis on non-contrast-enhanced T1 maps of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging for the diagnosis of myocardial injury in acute myocardial infarction (MI). Materials and Methods: This study included 68 patients (57 males and 11 females; mean age, 55.7 ± 10.5 years) with acute ST-segment-elevation MI who had undergone 3T CMR after a percutaneous coronary intervention. Forty patients of them also underwent a 6-month follow-up CMR. The CMR protocol included T2-weighted imaging, T1 mapping, rest first-pass perfusion, and late gadolinium enhancement. Radiomics features were extracted from the T1 maps using open-source software. Radiomics signatures were constructed with the selected strongest features to evaluate the myocardial injury severity and predict the recovery of left ventricular (LV) longitudinal systolic myocardial contractility. Results: A total of 1088 segments of the acute CMR images were analyzed; 103 (9.5%) segments showed microvascular obstruction (MVO), and 557 (51.2%) segments showed MI. A total of 640 segments were included in the 6-month follow-up analysis, of which 160 (25.0%) segments showed favorable recovery of LV longitudinal systolic myocardial contractility. Combined radiomics signature and T1 values resulted in a higher diagnostic performance for MVO compared to T1 values alone (area under the curve [AUC] in the training set; 0.88, 0.72, p = 0.031: AUC in the test set; 0.86, 0.71, p = 0.002). Combined radiomics signature and T1 values also provided a higher predictive value for LV longitudinal systolic myocardial contractility recovery compared to T1 values (AUC in the training set; 0.76, 0.55, p < 0.001: AUC in the test set; 0.77, 0.60, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The combination of radiomics of non-contrast-enhanced T1 mapping and T1 values could provide higher diagnostic accuracy for MVO. Radiomics also provides incremental value in the prediction of LV longitudinal systolic myocardial contractility at six months.

Analysis of achievement predictive factors and predictive AI model development - Focused on blended math classes (학업성취도 예측 요인 분석 및 인공지능 예측 모델 개발 - 블렌디드 수학 수업을 중심으로)

  • Ahn, Doyeon;Lee, Kwang-Ho
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.61 no.2
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    • pp.257-271
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    • 2022
  • As information and communication technologies are being developed so rapidly, education research is actively conducted to provide optimal learning for each student using big data and artificial intelligence technology. In this study, using the mathematics learning data of elementary school 5th to 6th graders conducting blended mathematics classes, we tried to find out what factors predict mathematics academic achievement and developed an artificial intelligence model that predicts mathematics academic performance using the results. Math learning propensity, LMS data, and evaluation results of 205 elementary school students had analyzed with a random forest model. Confidence, anxiety, interest, self-management, and confidence in math learning strategy were included as mathematics learning disposition. The progress rate, number of learning times, and learning time of the e-learning site were collected as LMS data. For evaluation data, results of diagnostic test and unit test were used. As a result of the analysis it was found that the mathematics learning strategy was the most important factor in predicting low-achieving students among mathematics learning propensities. The LMS training data had a negligible effect on the prediction. This study suggests that an AI model can predict low-achieving students with learning data generated in a blended math class. In addition, it is expected that the results of the analysis will provide specific information for teachers to evaluate and give feedback to students.