• 제목/요약/키워드: Deviation Correction Model

검색결과 44건 처리시간 0.025초

기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: 복잡지형의 낮 기온 상세화 기법 (Improving Usage of the Korea Meteorological Administration's Digital Forecasts in Agriculture: Correction Method for Daytime Hourly Air Temperature over Complex Terrain)

  • 윤은정;김수옥
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 2019
  • 일출 이후부터 일몰 전까지 매시 간격으로 태양 일사로 인한 지표부근 기온상승 효과와 풍속이 미치는 영향을 추정하고자, 동향사면과 서향사면 간 대표 기상관측지점에 대하여 매시 일사량 편차에 따른 관측기온의 편차(기온변화량)을 풍속별로 구분하여 도출하였다. 일사편차 1 MJ/㎡ 당 기온변화량으로 일사효과를 표현하여 풍속과의 경험식을 구하고, 이것을 토대로 2018년 1월부터 2018년 12월까지 농산촌의 복잡지형에 위치한 기상관측지점 25곳에 대해 주간(06:00~19:00) 매시 기온을 추정한 후 검증하였다. 그 결과 추정값과 관측값의 평균 ME는 -0.98~0.67℃, 평균 RMSE는 0.95~2.04℃ 나타났다. 오후 3시 기준의 한낮기온은 선행연구에서 제시한 기존 모형과 추정신뢰도를 대조하였는데, 기존 모형의 추정오차(ME -0.91℃, RMSE 1.47℃)를 ME -0.45℃, RMSE 1.22℃까지 개선시킬 수 있었다.

수입 수산물과 국내산 수산물의 가격간 유통단계별 인과성 분석 : 명태, 갈치, 조기 냉동품을 대상으로 (A Causality Analysis of the Prices between Imported Fisheries and Domestic Fisheries in Distribution Channel)

  • 차영기;김기수
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제40권2호
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    • pp.105-126
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    • 2009
  • This study applies the cointegration theory to analyse the causality of the prices between imported fisheries and domestic fisheries in distribution channel. We've focused on the prices of import, wholesale and retail about the frozen Alaska pollack, hairtail and croaker which take up high portion and are popular among most of the consumers. In process of analysis, the unit root test was adopted to find the stability of time series data prior to the cointegration test. If the time series data was found as stable one in unit root test, we should analyse the VAR model. If unstable, the cointegratioin test was adopeted to find the long-run equilibrium relationship between the data. When the long-run equilibrium relationship was found among the price of the import, wholesale and retail price, the VECM model was adoped. If not, the differenced VAR model was adopted. The main findings of this study could be summarized as follows ; First, according to the result of the analysis on VAR model, time series data of frozen Alaska pollack was found as stable and has causality relationship and close effect was existing among the import, wholesale and retail price. Second, the data of frozen hairtail was found as an unstable one in unit root test and the result of cointegration test showed the long-run equilibrium relationship at lag 1. From the results of VECM model, we could find that the coefficient of error correction is effective, and the sign is negative(-). It means that the existence of adjustment tendency to long-run equilibrium after a short-run deviation. But the short-run causality of the prices were not found except the price of wholesale. Third, according to the results of differenced VAR model, data from frozen croaker did not have the stability and long-run equilibrium. Moreover, it was found that the import price has a weak causality on the retail price. Because of having difficulties in collecting data, the result of this paper could not explain the relationship among the prices of import, wholesale and retail perfectly. However, it more or less contributed to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting in academic research and provided a useful guide for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.

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Three-dimensional evaluation of the correlation between lip canting and craniofacial planes

  • Kim, Jun-Young;Park, Hee-Keun;Shin, Seung-Woo;Park, Jin Hoo;Jung, Hwi-Dong;Jung, Young-Soo
    • 대한치과교정학회지
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    • 제50권4호
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    • pp.258-267
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    • 2020
  • Objective: This study aimed to analyze the correlation of horizontal and sagittal planes used in two-dimensional diagnosis with lip canting by using three-dimensional (3D) analysis. Methods: Fifty-two patients (25 men, 27 women; average age: 24 years) undergoing treatment for dentofacial deformity were enrolled. Computed tomography images were acquired, and digital imaging and communication in medicine files were reconstructed into a 3D virtual model wherein horizontal and sagittal craniofacial planes were measured. Subsequently, the correlations of lip canting with these horizontal and sagittal planes were investigated. Results: The mandibular symmetry plane, the occlusal plane, Camper's plane, the mandibular plane, Broadbent's plane, and the nasal axis plane were correlated with the amount of lip canting (Pearson's correlation coefficients: 0.761, 0.648, 0.556, 0.526, 0.438, and 0.406, respectively). Planes associated with the lower part of the face showed the strongest correlations; the strength of the correlations decreased in the midfacial and cranial regions. None of the planes showed statistically significant differences between patients with clinical lip canting (> 3°) and those without prominent lip canting. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that lip canting is strongly correlated with the mandibular symmetry plane, which includes menton deviation. This finding may have clinical implications with regard to the treatment of patients requiring correction of lip canting. Further studies are necessary for evaluating changes in lip canting after orthognathic surgery.

골다공증이 있는 폐경 후 당뇨 여성의 건강관련 삶의 질 영향요인: 제7기 국민건강영양조사 자료(2016-2018년) 활용 (Factors influencing the health-related quality of life of postmenopausal women with diabetes and osteoporosis: a secondary analysis of the Seventh Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2016-2018))

  • 김혁준;김혜영
    • 여성건강간호학회지
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The prevalence of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women is increasing, and diabetes patients have decreased bone density. Their health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is diminished by the resultant physical dysfunction and depression. The purpose of this study was to identify factors influencing HRQoL in postmenopausal women with diabetes and osteoporosis. Methods: This was a secondary data analysis of the Seventh Korea Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2016-2018), which utilized a complex, multistage probability sample design. The participants in the study were 237 women with diabetes and osteoporosis. To evaluate the factors that influenced HRQoL, a complex-samples general linear model was constructed, and the Bonferroni correction was performed. Results: In this sample of women aged 45 to 80 years (mean±standard deviation, 71.12±7.21 years), the average HRQoL score was 0.83±0.18 out of 1.0. Factors influencing HRQoL were age (70s: t=-3.74, p<.001; 80s: t=-3.42, p=.001), walking for exercise more than 5 days a week (t=-2.83, p=.005), cerebrovascular disease (t=-8.33, p<.001), osteoarthritis (t=-2.04, p=.014), hypertension (t=2.03, p=.044), higher perceived stress (t=-2.17, p=.032), poor glycemic control (t=3.40, p=.001), waist circumference (t=-2.76, p=.007), sitting time per day (t=-2.10, p=.038), and a longer postmenopausal period (t=3.09, p=.002). Conclusion: In order to improve the HRQoL of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and diabetes, it is necessary to implement intervention strategies that enable the effective management of chronic diseases, while preventing the complications of diabetes and minimizing stress through physical activity.

국내 석유시장에서 비대칭 가격조정에 관한 연구 (A Study on Asymmetric Price Adjustment in Domestic Petroleum Market)

  • 김진형
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.523-549
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 생산비용의 변화에 대해 비대칭적 조정을 허용하는 오차수정모형을 바탕으로 국내 석유제품시장에서 자기가격과 경쟁가격의 변동에 대한 정유사들의 가격조정 행태를 분석하고 나아가 국제유가 및 환율의 변동에 대한 정유사들의 반응을 계량적으로 추정해 이들 가격의 비대칭적 특성을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 자동차연료인 휘발유와 경유를 분석대상으로 선정하고, 이들 유종에 대한 정유사별 세전공급가격을 석유공사의 Opinet으로부터 수집하였으며, 수집한 자료는 2009년 4월 5주부터 2015년 1월 3주까지의 주별 자료로서 관측치는 총 300개에 이른다. 정유사 공급가격은 국제유가 및 환율의 변동에 대해 양적으로 비대칭적 조정이 이루어지고 있음을 추정결과는 유의적으로 잘 나타내고 있다. 누적조정금은 대부분의 경우 이들 변수가 하락할 때보다 상승할 경우에 더 크게 나타난다. 시장점유율이 높은 정유사일수록 누적조정금은 크게 나타나 이들 정유사가 국제유가 및 환율의 변동에 민감하게 반응해 가격조정에서도 선도적 역할을 하고 있을 가능성을 시사한다. 한편 자기가격 및 경쟁가격의 균형이탈에 대한 정유사의 반응은 암묵적 가격담합과 경쟁적 가격조정의 두 행태가 동시에 나타난다. 암묵적 가격담합은 경쟁가격의 움직임과 같은 방향으로 가격을 조정해 상대가격과 일정수준을 유지하려는 조정행태를 의미하며, 추정결과 정유사들 반응의 대부분은 여기에 해당되었다. 일부 정유사는 경쟁가격의 상향이탈시 자기가격을 하향조정해 시장수요를 확보하려는 경쟁적 가격조정행태를 취하고 있음을 보인다.

Prediction of the Chemical Composition and Fermentation Parameters of Fresh Coarse Italian Ryegrass Haylage using Near Infrared Spectroscopy

  • Kim, Ji Hye;Park, Hyung Soo;Choi, Ki Choon;Lee, Sang Hoon;Lee, Ki-Won
    • 한국초지조사료학회지
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    • 제37권4호
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    • pp.350-357
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    • 2017
  • Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a rapid and accurate method for analyzing the quality of cereals, and dried animal forage. However, one limitation of this method is its inability to measure fermentation parameters in dried and ground samples because they are volatile, and therefore, respectively lost during the drying process. In order to overcome this limitation, in this study, fresh coarse haylage was used to test the potential of NIRS to accurately determine chemical composition and fermentation parameters. Fresh coarse Italian ryegrass haylage samples were scanned at 1 nm intervals over a wavelength range of 680 to 2500 nm, and optical data were recorded as log 1/reflectance. Spectral data, together with first- and second-order derivatives, were analyzed using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate regressions; scatter correction procedures (standard normal variate and detrend) were used in order to reduce the effect of extraneous noise. Optimum calibrations were selected based on their low standard error of cross validation (SECV) values. Further, ratio of performance deviation, obtained by dividing the standard deviation of reference values by SECV values, was used to evaluate the reliability of predictive models. Our results showed that the NIRS method can predict chemical constituents accurately (correlation coefficient of cross validation, $R_{cv}^2$, ranged from 0.76 to 0.97); the exception to this result was crude ash ($R_{cv}^2=0.49$ and RPD = 2.09). Comparison of mathematical treatments for raw spectra showed that second-order derivatives yielded better predictions than first-order derivatives. The best mathematical treatment for DM, ADF, and NDF, respectively was 2, 16, 16, whereas the best mathematical treatment for CP and crude ash, respectively was 2, 8, 8. The calibration models for fermentation parameters had low predictive accuracy for acetic, propionic, and butyric acids (RPD < 2.5). However, pH, and lactic and total acids were predicted with considerable accuracy ($R_{cv}^2$ 0.73 to 0.78; RPD values exceeded 2.5), and the best mathematical treatment for them was 1, 8, 8. Our findings show that, when fresh haylage is used, NIRS-based calibrations are reliable for the prediction of haylage characteristics, and therefore useful for the assessment of the forage quality.

국제유가의 변동성이 한국 거시경제에 미치는 영향 분석 : EGARCH 및 VECM 모형의 응용 (A Study on the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Korean Macro Economic Activities : An EGARCH and VECM Approach)

  • 김상수
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권10호
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

VAR과 VECM 모형을 이용한 해운시장 분석 (Analysis of Shipping Markets Using VAR and VECM Models)

  • 고병욱
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제48권3호
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2023
  • 본 연구는 VAR 및 VECM 모형을 활용해 컨테이너선, 건화물선, VLCC(유조선) 해운시장의 물동량(수요), 선박량(공급), 운임(가격)의 동태적 특성을 분석한다. 이를 통해 시장 참여자들이 실제 업무에서 인지한 시장 특성을 통계적 패턴으로 이해할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 세 가지 해운시장 모두에서 나타나는 통계적 패턴은 다음과 같다: 1) 그란저 인과성 분석 결과, 전기에 선박량이 증가하면 다음기에는 운임이 하락한다. 2) 충격-반응 분석 결과, 물동량 충격은 운임을 상승시키고, 선박량 충격은 운임을 하락시킨다. 3) 물동량 충격, 선박량 충격, 운임 충격 중에서 운임 충격이 압도적으로 큰 것으로 나타났다. 4) 조정결정계수(adjR2)의 비교 결과, 선박량이 해운시장의 자체 변수(물동량, 선박량, 운임)에 의해 가장 잘 설명된다. 5) 공적분 벡터의 추정 결과, 물동량 증가는 운임을 상승시키고, 선박량 증가는 운임을 하락시킨다. 6) 교정 계수 추정 결과, 전기에 운임이 장기 균형보다 높으면 다음기에 하락 압력이 존재한다.

벤토나이트 케익을 고려한 연직차수벽의 순간변위시험(slug test) 해석 (Consideration of Bentonite Cake Existing on Vertical Cutoff Wall in Slug Test Analysis)

  • 임지희;웽 테 바오;이동섭;안재윤;최항석
    • 한국지반공학회논문집
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    • 제29권6호
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2013
  • 순간변위시험(slug test)은 현장의 지반 상태를 반영할 수 있어 연직차수벽 뒷채움재의 투수계수를 결정하는데 적용할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 연직차수벽과 주변 지반 사이에 형성되는 벤토나이트 케익을 고려하여 순간변위시험을 모사할 수 있는 3차원 모델이 개발되었다. 연직차수벽의 폭(즉, 경계 조건과의 근접 정도), 우물의 편심, 우물에 지하수가 유입되는 수직 위치, 뒷채움재의 압축성 등의 영향변수들이 모델에 고려되었다. 수치해석 결과를 이용하여 연직차수벽 시공 중에 존재할 수 있는 벤토나이트 케익이 순간변위시험 결과에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 이를 통해, 수정 Line-fitting법은 벤토나이트 케익을 고려한 연직차수벽의 순간변위시험 해석에서 다른 경계조건에 대해 제시된 보정계수 없이 직접 적용될 수 있음을 밝혔다. 본 논문에서는 기존의 현장 사례를 벤토나이트 케익을 고려하여 재분석하여 벤토나이트 케익이 존재하지 않는 경우(일정 수두 경계 조건)와 보수적인 경계조건(불투수 경계 조건)으로 가정했던 기존의 사례분석 결과들과 비교하였다. 결론적으로 연직차수벽 뒷채움재의 투수계수 평가시 벤토나이트 케익의 영향 및 수정 Line-fitting법의 유효성을 확인하였다.

PRISM과 상세 지형정보에 근거한 북한지역 강수량 분포 추정 (Estimation of Monthly Precipitation in North Korea Using PRISM and Digital Elevation Model)

  • 김대준;윤진일
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2011
  • 현재 남한에서는 270m 해상도의 강수분포도가 제작되어 활용되고 있지만, 북한지역에는 강수관측점의 수가 남한에 비하여 매우 적어서 남한과 같은 방법으로 강수분포를 추정하기는 어렵다. 자료가 불충분한 북한지방의 강수추정을 위해 우선 낮은 해상도의 강수기후도를 PRISM을 이용하여 제작하고 격자 내 지형특성을 반영하기 위해 여기에 상대적으로 자료가 풍부한 남한의 '지형-강수 관계'에 근거한 보정값을 더하는 방법을 모색하였다. 남한 지역 270m 해상도의 DEM에서 자동기상관측소와 표준기상관측소 위치의 격자값을 추출하고 이들을 이용하여 AWS+KMA 및 KMA에 해당하는 가상지형을 만든 다음, 둘 간의 편차를 얻었다. 강수량에 대해서도 동일한 작업을 하여 둘 간의 편차를 얻어 경사향별로 고도편차-강수편차 간 회귀식을 도출하였다. 북한 지역의 270m 해상도의 DEM과 27개 기상대 고도 값으로 IDW한 가상지형 간의 편차를 구한 다음, 남한에서 얻은 회귀식을 적용하여 보정값을 계산하였다. 북한지역에 대해 2,430m 해상도로 PRISM모형을 구동하고 보정값을 적용하여 최종강수량을 얻었다. 제작된 강수기후도에 따르면 북한지방의 연간 총 강수량은 지역평균이 1,196mm이며 표준편차는 298mm인 것으로 추정된다.