• Title/Summary/Keyword: Developing World

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GenAI(Generative Artificial Intelligence) Technology Trend Analysis Using Bigkinds: ChatGPT Emergence and Startup Impact Assessment (빅카인즈를 활용한 GenAI(생성형 인공지능) 기술 동향 분석: ChatGPT 등장과 스타트업 영향 평가)

  • Lee, Hyun Ju;Sung, Chang Soo;Jeon, Byung Hoon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2023
  • In the field of technology entrepreneurship and startups, the development of Artificial Intelligence(AI) has emerged as a key topic for business model innovation. As a result, venture firms are making various efforts centered on AI to secure competitiveness(Kim & Geum, 2023). The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between the development of GenAI technology and the startup ecosystem by analyzing domestic news articles to identify trends in the technology startup field. Using BIG Kinds, this study examined the changes in GenAI-related news articles, major issues, and trends in Korean news articles from 1990 to August 10, 2023, focusing on the emergence of ChatGPT before and after, and visualized the relevance through network analysis and keyword visualization. The results of the study showed that the mention of GenAI gradually increased in the articles from 2017 to 2023. In particular, OpenAI's ChatGPT service based on GPT-3.5 was highlighted as a major issue, indicating the popularization of language model-based GenAI technologies such as OpenAI's DALL-E, Google's MusicLM, and VoyagerX's Vrew. This proves the usefulness of GenAI in various fields, and since the launch of ChatGPT, Korean companies have been actively developing Korean language models. Startups such as Ritten Technologies are also utilizing GenAI to expand their scope in the technology startup field. This study confirms the connection between GenAI technology and startup entrepreneurship activities, which suggests that it can support the construction of innovative business strategies, and is expected to continue to shape the development of GenAI technology and the growth of the startup ecosystem. Further research is needed to explore international trends, the utilization of various analysis methods, and the possibility of applying GenAI in the real world. These efforts are expected to contribute to the development of GenAI technology and the growth of the startup ecosystem.

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The Impacts of Social Support and Psychological Factors on Guild Members' Flow and Loyalty in MMORPG (MMORPG에서 길드 구성원들의 사회적 지지와 심리적 요인들이 플로우 및 충성도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Ju-Seon;Ko, Yoon-Jung;Ko, Il-Sang
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.69-98
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    • 2009
  • We investigated what factors motivate gamers to participate in a guild and why they continue to be engaged as members of the guild. We find that, based on the result of focus group interviews with MMORPG gamers, social support and self-esteem factors play important roles. Considering both prior research and the focus group interviews we have conducted, we define social support and character control as independent variables. Character identity, guild identity, and self-esteem are proposed as mediating variables while guild flow and game loyalty as dependent variables. Accordingly, we develop the research model and hypotheses, and verify them empirically. Based on our experiences of playing the WoW game, we proposed a research model and conducted focus-group interviews (FGIs). FGIs involve formulating a hypothesis and then collecting some relevant data. FGIs were conducted face-to-face with students of C University in Korea. We formulated structured interview schedules, and the questions were based on our research variables and personal experiences. The questions for the interviews encompassed the following areas: (a) the demographic characteristics of the focus group; (b) the number of years for which respondents had played online games; (c) the motive for starting a game; (d) the number of game-characters assumed by each gamer; (e) the type of game played; and (f) other issues such as the reasons for involvement in the play, the willingness to reuse the game in case new versions were released, etc. On average, it took two hours to interview each of three groups. A primary set of FGIs was conducted with three groups on the premise that there would be some differences caused by character race (Horde vs. Alliance) or by playable server (Normal vs. Combat). With respect to the manner of playing, we found that guild members shared information, felt a sense of belonging, and played computer games for quite a long time through the guild; however, they did not undergo these experiences when playing alone. Gamers who belonged to a specific guild helped other players without expecting compensation for that, freely shared information about the game, gave away items for free, and more generous with other members who made mistakes. The guild members were aware of the existence other members and experienced a sense of belonging through interactions with, and evaluations from, other players. It was clear that social support was shown within the guild and that it played an important role as a major research variable. Based on the results of the first FGIs, a second set of in-depth FGIs was carried out with a focus on the psychology of the individual within the guild and the social community of the guild. The second set of FGIs also focused on the guild's offline meetings. Gamers, over all, recognize the necessity of joining a community, not only off-line but also online world of the guild. They admit that the guild is important for them to easily and conveniently enjoy playing online computer games. The active behavior and positive attitudes of existing guild members can motivate new members of the guild to adapt themselves to the guild environment. They then adopt the same behaviors and attitudes of established guild members. In this manner, the new members of the guild strengthen the bonds with other gamers while feeling a sense of belonging, and developing social identity, thereby. It was discovered that the interaction among guild members and the social support encouraged new gamers to quickly develop a sense of social identity and increase their self-esteem. The guild seemed to play the role of socializing gamers. Sometimes, even in the real world, the guild members helped one another; therefore, the features of the guild also spilled over to the offline environment. We intend to use self-esteem, which was found through the second set of FGIs, as an important research variable. To collect data, an online survey was designed with a questionnaire to be completed by WoW gamers, who belong to a guild. The survey was registered on the best three domestic game-sites: 'WoW playforum,' 'WoW gamemeca,' and 'Wow invent.' The selected items to be measured in the questionnaire were decided based on prior research and data from FGIs. To verify the content of the questionnaire, we carried out a pilot test with the same participants to point out ambiguous questions as a way to ensure maximum accuracy of the survey result. A total of 244 responses were analyzed from the 250 completed questionnaires. The SEM analysis was used to test goodness-of-fit of the model. As a result, we found important results as follows: First, according to the statistics, social support had statistically significant impacts on character control, character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Second, character control had significant effects on character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Third, character identity shows its clear impact on self-esteem and game loyalty. Fourth, guild identity affected self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Fifth, self-esteem had a positive influence on the guild flow. These days, the number of virtual community is rising along with its significance largely because of the nature of the online games. Accordingly, this study is designed to clarify the psychological relationship between gamers within the guild that has been generally established by gamers to play online games together. This study focuses on the relationships in which social support influences guild flow or game loyalty through character control, character identity, guild identity, and self-esteem, which are present within a guild in the MMORPG game environment. The study results are as follows. First, the effects of social support on character control, character identity, guild identity and self-esteem are proven to be statistically significant. It was found that character control improves character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Among the seven variables, social support, which is derived from FGIs, plays an important role in this study. With the active support of other guild members, gamers can improve their ability to develop good characters and to control them. Second, character identity has a positive effect on self-esteem and game loyalty, while guild identity has a significant effect on self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Self-esteem affects guild flow. It was found that the higher the character and guild identities become, the greater the self-esteem is established. Contrary to the findings of prior research, our study results indicate that the relationship between character identity and guild flow is not significant. Rather, it was found that character identity directly affects game players' loyalty. Even though the character identity had no direct effect on increasing guild flow, it has indirectly affected guild flow through self-esteem. The significant relationship between self-esteem and guild flow indicates that gamers achieve flow, i.e., a feeling of pleasure and excitement through social support. Several important implications of this study should be noted. First, both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to conduct this study. Through FGIs, it was observed that both social support and self-esteem are important variables. Second, because guilds had been rarely studied, this research is expected to play an important role in the online community. Third, according to the result, six hypotheses (H1, H5, H6, H7, H8, and H11) setup based on FGIs, were statistically significant; thus, we can suggest the corresponding relationships among the variables as a guideline for follow-up research. Our research is significant as it has following implications: first, the social support of the guild members is important when establishing character control, character identity, guildidentity and self-esteem. It is also a major variable that affects guild flow and game loyalty. Second, character control when improved by social support shows notable influence on the development of character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Third, character identity and guild identity are major factors to help establish gamers' own self-esteem. Fourth, character identity affects guild flow through self-esteem and game loyalty. The gamers usually express themselves through characters; the higher character identity is, the more loyalty a gamer has. Fifth, guild identity, established within the guild, has clear effects on self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Sixth, qualitative and quantitative methods are employed to conduct this study. Based on the results of focus group interviews and SEM analysis, we find that the social support by guild members and psychological factors are significant in strengthening the flow of guild and loyalty to the game. As such, game developers should provide some extra functions for guild community, through which gamers can play online games in collaboration with one another. Also, we suggest that positive self-esteem which is built up through social support can help gamers achieve higher level of flow and satisfaction, which will consequently contribute to minimizing the possibility for the players to develop negative attitude toward the guild they belong to.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

A Contemplation on Measures to Advance Logistics Centers (물류센터 선진화를 위한 발전 방안에 대한 소고)

  • Sun, Il-Suck;Lee, Won-Dong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2011
  • As the world becomes more globalized, business competition becomes fiercer, while consumers' needs for less expensive quality products are on the increase. Business operations make an effort to secure a competitive edge in costs and services, and the logistics industry, that is, the industry operating the storing and transporting of goods, once thought to be an expense, begins to be considered as the third cash cow, a source of new income. Logistics centers are central to storage, loading and unloading of deliveries, packaging operations, and dispensing goods' information. As hubs for various deliveries, they also serve as a core infrastructure to smoothly coordinate manufacturing and selling, using varied information and operation systems. Logistics centers are increasingly on the rise as centers of business supply activities, growing beyond their previous role of primarily storing goods. They are no longer just facilities; they have become logistics strongholds that encompass various features from demand forecast to the regulation of supply, manufacturing, and sales by realizing SCM, taking into account marketability and the operation of service and products. However, despite these changes in logistics operations, some centers have been unable to shed their past roles as warehouses. For the continuous development of logistics centers, various measures would be needed, including a revision of current supporting policies, formulating effective management plans, and establishing systematic standards for founding, managing, and controlling logistics centers. To this end, the research explored previous studies on the use and effectiveness of logistics centers. From a theoretical perspective, an evaluation of the overall introduction, purposes, and transitions in the use of logistics centers found issues to ponder and suggested measures to promote and further advance logistics centers. First, a fact-finding survey to establish demand forecast and standardization is needed. As logistics newspapers predicted that after 2012 supply would exceed demand, causing rents to fall, the business environment for logistics centers has faltered. However, since there is a shortage of fact-finding surveys regarding actual demand for domestic logistic centers, it is hard to predict what the future holds for this industry. Accordingly, the first priority should be to get to the essence of the current market situation by conducting accurate domestic and international fact-finding surveys. Based on those, management and evaluation indicators should be developed to build the foundation for the consistent advancement of logistics centers. Second, many policies for logistics centers should be revised or developed. Above all, a guideline for fair trade between a shipper and a commercial logistics center should be enacted. Since there are no standards for fair trade between them, rampant unfair trades according to market practices have brought chaos to market orders, and now the logistics industry is confronting its own difficulties. Therefore, unfair trade cases that currently plague logistics centers should be gathered by the industry and fair trade guidelines should be established and implemented. In addition, restrictive employment regulations for foreign workers should be eased, and logistics centers should be charged industry rates for the use of electricity. Third, various measures should be taken to improve the management environment. First, we need to find out how to activate value-added logistics. Because the traditional purpose of logistics centers was storage and loading/unloading of goods, their profitability had a limit, and the need arose to find a new angle to create a value added service. Logistic centers have been perceived as support for a company's storage, manufacturing, and sales needs, not as creators of profits. The center's role in the company's economics has been lowering costs. However, as the logistics' management environment spiraled, along with its storage purpose, developing a new feature of profit creation should be a desirable goal, and to achieve that, value added logistics should be promoted. Logistics centers can also be improved through cost estimation. In the meantime, they have achieved some strides in facility development but have still fallen behind in others, particularly in management functioning. Lax management has been rampant because the industry has not developed a concept of cost estimation. The centers have since made an effort toward unification, standardization, and informatization while realizing cost reductions by establishing systems for effective management, but it has been hard to produce profits. Thus, there is an urgent need to estimate costs by determining a basic cost range for each division of work at logistics centers. This undertaking can be the first step to improving the ineffective aspects of how they operate. Ongoing research and constant efforts have been made to improve the level of effectiveness in the manufacturing industry, but studies on resource management in logistics centers are hardly enough. Thus, a plan to calculate the optimal level of resources necessary to operate a logistics center should be developed and implemented in management behavior, for example, by standardizing the hours of operation. If logistics centers, shippers, related trade groups, academic figures, and other experts could launch a committee to work with the government and maintain an ongoing relationship, the constraint and cooperation among members would help lead to coherent development plans for logistics centers. If the government continues its efforts to provide financial support, nurture professional workers, and maintain safety management, we can anticipate the continuous advancement of logistics centers.

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A Study on Modern People's Consciousness and Wearing Practice of Korean Costumes (우리나라 옷에 대한 현대인(現代人)의 의식(意識)과 춘용실태(春用實態)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) - 서울 지역(地域)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Hwang, Chun-Sub
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.1
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 1977
  • It is significant for developing the future for us to know our present age. In order to preserve our Korean costume as a fola clothes retaining our distinguished independent characterisitics and to help design the tomorrow of our Korean costume playing a role as a racial to develop the world clothing culture, a survey was conducted to investigate modern people's conscious-ness and wearing practumes of Korean costume by questionaire and interviewing methods. The results of the survey were analyzed as follows: (1) At present, Korean costumes were purchased as customtailored(64.0%) and as ready-made(17.8%) and most of them were not made at individual homes. The laundry and ironing of them were carried out at laundry shops(68.8%). Considering our present economic, social and cultural aspects, sowing, laundryand ironing will not be carried out at homes again in the future and ready made costumes seen to be produced in a large scale in the future. Garment makers and laundry shop operators should be trained how to make our Korean costumes retain our traditional beauty in the course of their production and laundry and the makers of ready-made costumes must make research how to efficiently produce ideal ready-made costumes by adopting the synchro system in their wrk odisivion. (2) The age group wearing Korean costumes most frequently was the aged people over 60 (their wearing rate; 45%-50%) and the group wearing them most frequently next io the aged people over 60, was housewives(their wearing rate; 15%-20%). Excludign aged people and housewives, other respondentsdid not wear Korean costumes very frequently. Men's wearing rate was lower their wearing rate was the younger their ages were and the less their monthly incomes were. Korean costumes were used for holiday and festival(60%), wedding and funeral ceremonies (52%), visiting and working(22%), casual wear(12.8%) and home wear(9.2%). The use of Korean costumes as casual and home wears, was lower than the use for holday, festival, visiting and working, Under our present circumstances in which our Korean people use both Western style clothes and Korean costumer, our Korean costume has lostits position as a basic and necessary requiement in Korean people's daily life and become a ceremonical and fancy costume. It is natural that the times and life change everything in our daily life. Our costume has to be made as good ceremonial and fancy clothes satisfying modern sensibility according to its new role. In order for us to get close with our clothes, a keen study must be carried out to cleat the color, material, style, function and harmony of the Korean costume matching the of the times. (3) The 47.8% of the respondents answered that they were proud of our Korean costume as our folk clothes, 47.6% replied that thought them just common and 1.1% responded that they were ashamed of it. Most of them were affirmative in feeling pride with our Korean costume. (4) Considering the functional aspect of Korean costumes, their strong points were symetric beauty, rhythmical beauty, unity feeling, harmonical beauty and detailed decorations. Their common shortcomings were lack of individuality and inadequateness for active life. The shortcomings of woman costumes were suppressing breast, making resperation difficult and in adequnteness in summer time. The main reason not to wear our Korean costumes, was due to the fact that they are incomvenient for active life. As a measure to eliminate such shortcomings, 1) the suspension system of skirt to remove the suppression of breast should be generally adopted. 2) they should be simplified in their structure to make them convenient for active life and adepuate in wearing them in hot weather in an extent to which the traditional beauty of the costume may not be lostand 3) a new technique must be explored for showing individuality by wearing method and new arrangment of colors and decorations. (5) The reasons desiring to wear Korean costumes were classifide as follows: A. Korean costumes are our traditional clothes(43.4%). B. Korean costumes are noble and beautiful(26.8%). C. They are accustomed to wear Korean costumes by habit(19.5%). D. Korean costumes are necessary for attending ceremoneis(9.5%). E. Miscellaneous reasons(0.8%). Classifying these reasons into age groups, the high age group over 40 wore them because they were easy to wear by habit and the low age group of 10-30 never thought that they were east to wear by habit. Considering that even those who were accustomed to wear Korean costumes showed a low wearing rate and that the young generation were accustomed to wear Western style clothes rather than Korean costumes, the wearing rate of Korean costumes will be reduced in the future if such trend continues. It is urgent for us to make our best efforts in order to enhance the interest of young generation in Korean costumes and not to make them lose the strong points of Korean costume in the future. (6) Conicering the plan of the respondents on what kind of clothes they were going to wear in the future, among the age group over 50, those who wanted to wear only Korean costumes were 24.8%(men) and 35.1%(women), those who wanted to wear 49.7%(men) and 47.4(women), those who wanted to wear chiefly Western style clothes were 20.7% (men) and 14.4%(women) and those who wanted to wear only Western style clothes, were 2.4% (men) and 2.1%(women). This shows that the general tendency to wear only or chiefly Korean costumes is more prevalent than that to wear only Western style. Among the age group under 50, the tendency to wear Western style clothes was conspicuous and most of the respondent answered that they would wear chiefly Western style clothes and Korean costumes occasionally. Only 5.4% of the respondent answered that they would wear only Western style clothes and this shows that meny respondents still wonted to wear Korean costumes. Those who wanted their descendants to wear what they desire, were 50.1%(men) and 68.8% (women) and those who wanted their descendants to wear Koran costumes occasionally, were 85.8%(men) and 86.3%(women). This shows that most of respondents wanted their descendants to wear Korean costumes. In order to realize, it is necessory for us to make ourdescendants recognize the preciousness of our traditional culture and modify our Korean costumes according to their taste so that they may like wearing them.

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Genetic Counseling in Korean Health Care System (한국 의료제도와 유전상담 서비스의 구축)

  • Kim, Hyon-J.
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2011
  • Over the years Korean health care system has improved in delivery of quality care to the general population for many areas of the health problems. The system is now being recognized in the world as the most cost effective one. It is covered by the uniform national health insurance policy for which most people in Korea are mandatory policy holders. Genetic counseling service, however, which is well recognized as an integral part of clinical genetics service deals with diagnosis and management of genetic condition as well as genetic information presentation and family support, is yet to be delivered in comprehensive way for the patients and families in need. Two major obstacles in providing genetic counseling service in korean health care system are identified; One is the lack of recognition for the need for genetic counseling service as necessary service by the national health insurance. Genetic counseling consumes a significant time in delivery and the current very low-fee schedule for physician service makes it very difficult to provide meaningful service. Second is the critical shortage of qualified professionals in the field of medical genetics and genetic counseling who can provide the service of genetic counseling in clinical setting. However, recognition and understanding of the fact that the scope and role of genetic counseling is expanding in post genomic era of personalized medicine for delivery of quality health care, will lead to the efforts to overcome obstacles in providing genetic counseling service in korean health care system. Only concerted efforts from health care policy makers of government on clinical genetics service and genetic counseling for establishing adequate reimbursement coverage and professional communities for developing educational program and certification process for professional genetic counselors, are necessary for the delivery of much needed clinical genetic counseling service in Korea.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

The Conceptual Intersection between the Old and the New and the Transformation of the Traditional Knowledge System (신구(新舊) 관념의 교차와 전통 지식 체계의 변용)

  • Lee, Haenghoon
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.32
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    • pp.215-249
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    • 2011
  • This essay reflects on the modernity of Korea by examining the transformation of the traditional knowledge system from a historico-semantic perspective with its focus on the opposition and collision of the old and the new conception occurred in the early period(1890~1910) of the acceptance of the Western modern civilization. With scientific success, trick of reason, Christianity and evolutionary view of history, the Western modernity regarded itself as a peak of civilization and forced the non-Western societies into the world system in which they came to be considered as 'barbarism(野蠻)' or 'half-enlightened(半開).' The East Asian civilization, which had its own history for several centuries, became degraded as kind of delusion and old-fashioned customs from which it ought to free itself. The Western civilization presented itself as exemplary future which East Asian people should achieve, while East Asian past traditions came to be conceived as just unnecessary vestiges which it was better to wipe out. It can be said that East Asian modernization was established through the propagation and acceptance of the modern products of the Western civilization rather than through the preservation of its past experience and pursuit of the new at the same time. Accordingly, it is difficult to apply directly to East Asian societies Koselleck's hypothesis; while mapping out his Basic Concept of History, he assumed that, in the so-called 'age of saddle,' semantic struggle over concepts becomes active between the past experience and the horizon of expectation on the future, and concepts undergoes 'temporalization', 'democratization', 'ideologization', 'politicization.'The struggle over the old and new conceptions in Korea was most noticeable in the opposition of the Neo-Confucian scholars of Hwangseongsinmun and the theorists of civilization of Doknipsinmun. The opposition and struggle demanded the change of understanding in every field, but there was difference of opinion over the conception of the past traditional knowledge system. For the theorists of civilization, 'the old(舊)' was not just 'past' and 'old-fashioned' things, but rather an obstacle to the building of new civilization. On the other hand, it contained the possibility of regeneration(新) for the Neo-Confucian scholars; that is, they suggested finding a guide into tomorrow by taking lessons from the past. The traditional knowledge system lost their holy status of learning(聖學) in the process of its change into a 'new learning(新學),' and religion and religious tradition also weakened. The traditional knowledge system could change itself into modern learning by accepting scientific methodology which pursues objectivity and rationality. This transformation of the traditional knowledge system and 'the formation of the new learning from the old learning' was accompanied by the intersection between the old and new conceptions. It is necessary to pay attention to the role played by the concept of Sil(hak)(實學) or Practical Learning in the intersection of the old and new conceptions. Various modern media published before and after the 20th century show clearly the multi-layered development of the old and new conceptions, and it is noticeable that 'Sil(hak)' as conceptual frame of reference contributed to the transformation of the traditional knowledge system into the new learning. Although Silhak often designated, or was even considered equivalent to, the Western learning, Neo-Confucian scholars reinterpreted the concept of 'Silhak' which the theorists of civilization had monopolized until then, and opened the way to change the traditional knowledge system into the new learning. They re-appropriated the concept of Silhak, and enabled it to be invested with values, which were losing their own status due to the overwhelming scientific technology. With Japanese occupation of Korea by force, the attempt to transform the traditional knowledge system independently was obliged to reach its own limit, but its theory of 'making new learning from old one' can be considered to get over both the contradiction of Dondoseogi(東道西器: principle of preserving Eastern philosophy while accepting Western technology) and the de-subjectivity of the theory of civilization. While developing its own logic, the theory of Dongdoseogi was compelled to bring in the contradiction of considering the indivisible(道and 器) as divisible, though it tried to cope with the reality where the principle of morality and that of competition were opposed each other and the ideologies of 'evolution' and 'progress' prevailed. On the other hand, the theory of civilization was not free from the criticism that it brought about a crack in subjectivity due to its internalization of the West, cutting itself off from the traditional knowledge system.

Liability of the Compensation for Damage Caused by the International Passenger's Carrier by Air in Montreal Convention (몬트리올조약에 있어 국제항공여객운송인의 손해배상책임)

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.18
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    • pp.9-39
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    • 2003
  • The rule of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 are well known and still being all over the world. The Warsaw Convention is undoubtedly the most widely accepted private international air law treaty with some 140 countries. In the international legal system for air transportation, the Warsaw Convention has played a major role for more than half century, and has been revised many times in consideration of the rapid developments of air high technology, changes of social and economic circumstances, need for the protection of passengers. Some amendments became effective, but others are still not effective. As a result, the whole international legal system for air transportation is at past so complicated and tangled. However, the 'Warsaw system' consists of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 the Guadalajara Convention of 1961, a supplementary convention, and the following six protocols: (1) the Hague Protocol of 1955, (2) the Guatemala Protocol of 1971, (3) the Montreal Additional Protocols, No.1, (4) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.2, (5) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and (6) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.4. of 1975. As a fundamental principle of the air carrier's liability in the international convention and protocols, for instance in the Warsaw Convention and the Hague Protocol, the principle of limited liability and a presumed fault system has been adopted. Subsequently, the Montreal Inter-carrier Agreement of 1966, the Guatemala City Protocol, the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and the Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4 of 1975 maintained the limited liability, but substituted the presumed liability system by an absolute liability, that is, strict liability system. The Warsaw System, which sets relatively low compensation limits for victims of aircraft accidents and regulates the limited liability for death and injury of air passengers, had become increasingly outdated. Japanese Airlines and Inter-carrier Agreement of International Air Transport Association in 1995 has been adopted the unlimited liability of air carrier in international flight. The IATA Inter-Carrier Agreement, in which airlines in international air transportation agree to waive the limit of damages, was long and hard in coming, but it was remarkable achievement given the political and economic realities of the world. IATA deserves enormous credit for bringing it about. The Warsaw System is controversial and questionable. In order to find rational solution to disputes between nations which adopted differing liability systems in international air transportation, we need to reform the liability of air carriers the 'Warsaw system' and fundamentally, to unify the liability system among the nations. The International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) will therefore reinforce its efforts to further promote a legal environment that adequately reflects the public interest and the needs of the parties involved. The ICAO Study Group met in April, 1998, together with the Drafting Committee. The time between the "Special Group on the Modernization and Consolidation of the 'Warsaw system'(SGMW)" and the Diplomatic Conference must be actively utilized to arrange for profound studies of the outstanding issues and for wide international consultations with a view to narrowing the scope of differences and preparing for a global international consensus. From 11 to 28 May 1999 the ICAO Headquarters at Montreal hosted a Diplomatic Conference convened to consider, with a view to adoption, a draft Convention intended to modernize and to integrate replace the instruments of the Warsaw system. The Council of ICAO convened this Conference under the Procedure for the Adoption of International Conventions. Some 525 participants from 121 Contracting States of ICAO attended, one non-contracting State, 11 observer delegations from international organizations, a total of 544 registered participants took part in the historic three-week conference which began on 10 May. The Conference was a success since it adopted a new Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules for International Carriage by Air. The 1999 Montreal Convention, created and signed by representatives of 52 countries at an international conference convened by ICAO at Montreal on May 28, 1999, came into effect on November 4, 2003. Representatives of 30 countries have now formally ratified the Convention under their respective national procedures and ratification of the United States, which was the 30th country to ratify, took place on September 5, 2003. Under Article 53.6 of the Montreal Convention, it enters into force on the 60th day following the deposit of the 30th instrument of ratification or acceptation. The United States' ratification was deposited with ICAO on September 5, 2003. The ICAO have succeeded in modernizing and consolidating a 70-year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument that will provide, for years to come, an adequate level of compensation for those involved in international aircraft accidents. An international diplomatic conference on air law by ICAO of 1999 succeeded in adopting a new regime for air carrier liability, replacing the Warsaw Convention and five other related legal instruments with a single convention that provided for unlimited liability in relation to passengers. Victims of international air accidents and their families will be better protected and compensated under the new Montreal Convention, which modernizes and consolidates a seventy-five year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument. A major feature of the new legal instrument is the concept of unlimited liability. Whereas the Warsaw Convention set a limit of 125,000 Gold Francs (approximately US$ 8,300) in case of death or injury to passengers, the Montreal Convention introduces a two-tier system. The first tier includes strict liability up to l00,000 Special Drawing Rights (SDR: approximately US$ 135,000), irrespective of a carrier's fault. The second tier is based on presumption of fault of a carrier and has no limit of liability. The 1999 Montreal Convention also includes the following main elements; 1. In cases of aircraft accidents, air carriers are called upon to provide advance payments, without delay, to assist entitled persons in meeting immediate economic needs; the amount of this initial payment will be subject to national law and will be deductable from the final settlement; 2. Air carriers must submit proof of insurance, thereby ensuring the availability of financial resources in cases of automatic payments or litigation; 3. The legal action for damages resulting from the death or injury of a passenger may be filed in the country where, at the time of the accident, the passenger had his or her principal and permanent residence, subject to certain conditions. The new Montreal Convention of 1999 included the 5th jurisdiction - the place of residence of the claimant. The acceptance of the 5th jurisdiction is a diplomatic victory for the US and it can be realistically expected that claimants' lawyers will use every opportunity to file the claim in the US jurisdiction - it brings advantages in the liberal system of discovery, much wider scope of compensable non-economic damages than anywhere else in the world and the jury system prone to very generous awards. 4. The facilitation in the recovery of damages without the need for lengthy litigation, and simplification and modernization of documentation related to passengers. In developing this new Montreal Convention, we were able to reach a delicate balance between the needs and interests of all partners in international civil aviation, States, the travelling public, air carriers and the transport industry. Unlike the Warsaw Convention, the threshold of l00,000 SDR specified by the Montreal Convention, as well as remaining liability limits in relation to air passengers and delay, are subject to periodic review and may be revised once every five years. The primary aim of unification of private law as well as the new Montreal Convention is not only to remove or to minimize the conflict of laws but also to avoid conflict of jurisdictions. In order to find a rational solution to disputes between nations which have adopted differing liability systems in international air transport, we need fundamentally to reform their countries's domestic air law based on the new Montreal Convention. It is a desirable and necessary for us to ratify rapidly the new Montreal Convention by the contracting states of lCAO including the Republic of Korea. According to the Korean and Japanese ideas, airlines should not only pay compensation to passengers immediately after the accident, but also the so-called 'condolence' money to the next of kin. Condolence money is a gift to help a dead person's spirit in the hereafter : it is given on account of the grief and sorrow suffered by the next of kin, and it has risen considerably over the years. The total amount of the Korean and Japanese claims in the case of death is calculated on the basis of the loss of earned income, funeral expenses and material demage (baggage etc.), plus condolence money. The economic and social change will be occurred continuously after conclusion of the new Montreal Convention. In addition, the real value of life and human right will be enhanced substantially. The amount of compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident has increased in dollar amount as well as in volume. All air carrier's liability should extend to loss of expectation of leisure activities, as well as to damage to property, and mental and physical injuries. When victims are not satisfied with the amount of the compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident for which an airline corporation is liable under the current liability system. I also would like to propose my opinion that it is reasonable and necessary for us to interpret broadly the meaning of the bodily injury on Article 17 of the new Montreal Convention so as to be included the mental injury and condolence. Furthermore, Korea and Japan has not existed the Air Transport Act regulated the civil liability of air carrier such as Air Transport Act (Luftverkehrsgestz) in Germany. It is necessary for us to enact "the Korean Air Transport Contract Act (provisional title)" in order to regulate the civil liability of air carrier including the protection of the victims and injured persons caused by aircraft accident.

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