• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.119-130
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• 2008

Uncertainties in physical and engineering parameters for the design of shallow foundations arise from various aspects such as inherent variability and measurement error. This paper aims at investigating and reducing uncertainty from deterministic method by using the reliability-based design of shallow foundations accounting for the variation of various design parameters. A probability distribution type and statistics of random variables such as unit weight, cohesion, infernal friction angle and Young's modulus in geotechnical engineering are suggested to calculate the ultimate bearing capacities and immediate settlements of foundations. Reliability index and probability of failure are estimated based on the distribution types of random variables. Widths of foundation are calculated at target reliability index and probability of failure. It is found that application and analysis of the best-fit distribution type for each random variables are more effective than adoption of the normal distribution type in optimizing the reliability-based design of shallow foundations.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.11
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• pp.87-103
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• 2009

To determine the reliable probabilistic distribution model of geotechnical properties, outlier and randomness test for analysis data, parameter estimation of probabilistic distribution model, and goodness-of-fit test for model parameter and probabilistic distribution model have to be performed in sequence. In this paper, the probabilistic distribution model's geotechnical properties of Songdo area in Incheon are estimated by the above proposed procedure. Also, the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the variability of geotechnical properties is determined for several geotechnical properties. Reliable probabilistic distribution model and COV of geotechnical properties can be used for probability-based design procedure and reasonable choice of design value in deterministic design method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.86 no.5
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• pp.647-661
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• 2023

It is recognized that the installation of energy dissipation devices, such as the tuned mass damper (TMD), decreases the dynamic response of structures, however, the best parameters of each device persist hard to determine. Unlike many works that perform only a deterministic optimization, this work proposes a complete methodology to minimize the dynamic response of footbridges by optimizing the parameters of multiple tuned mass dampers (MTMD) taking into account uncertainties present in the parameters of the structure and also of the human excitation. For application purposes, a steel footbridge, based on a real structure, is studied. Three different scenarios for the MTMD are simulated. The proposed robust optimization problem is solved via the Circle-Inspired Optimization Algorithm (CIOA), a novel and efficient metaheuristic algorithm recently developed by the authors. The objective function is to minimize the mean maximum vertical displacement of the footbridge, whereas the design variables are the stiffness and damping constants of the MTMD. The results showed the excellent capacity of the proposed methodology, reducing the mean maximum vertical displacement by more than 36% and in a computational time about 9% less than using a classical genetic algorithm. The results obtained by the proposed methodology are also compared with results obtained through traditional TMD design methods, showing again the best performance of the proposed optimization method. Finally, an analysis of the maximum vertical acceleration showed a reduction of more than 91% for the three scenarios, leading the footbridge to acceleration values below the recommended comfort limits. Hence, the proposed methodology could be employed to optimize MTMD, improving the design of footbridges.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.526-533
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• 2009

This paper proposes a formant synthesis method of Haegeum sounds using cepstral envelope for spectral modeling. Spectral modeling synthesis (SMS) is a technique that models time-varying spectra as a combination of sinusoids (the "deterministic" part), and a time-varying filtered noise component (the "stochastic" part). SMS is appropriate for synthesizing sounds of string and wind instruments whose harmonics are evenly distributed over whole frequency band. Formants extracted from cepstral envelope are parameterized for synthesis of sinusoids. A resonator by Impulse Invariant Transform (IIT) is applied to synthesize sinusoids and the results are bandpass filtered to adjust magnitude. The noise is calculated by first generating the sinusoids with formant synthesis, subtracting them from the original sound, and then removing some harmonics remained. Linear interpolation is used to model noise. The synthesized sounds are made by summing sinusoids, which are shown to be similar to the original Haegeum sounds.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.8
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• pp.591-605
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• 2009

In this study the risk integrated erosion and seepage failure factor and combined risk of the levee embankment were assessed. For the research of the reliability, the risk assessment of erosion, seepage and both of them combined for the levee embankment were conducted using discharge curve and stage hydrograph generated by stochastic rainfall variation method during typhoon and monsoon season. The risk of erosion was evaluated using tractive force and the seepage analysis was performed by selecting representative cross sections for SEEP/W model analysis. And the probability of seepage failure was assessed with MFOSM analysis using critical hydraulic gradient method. Unlike deterministic analysis method, quantitative risk could be obtained and the characteristics of realistic rainfall variation patterns as well as a variety of factors contributing to levee failure could be reflected in this research. The results of this study show significantly enhanced applicability for the combined risk. As this model can be employed to determine dangerous spots for levee failure and to establish flood insurance linked with flood risk map, it will dramatically contribute to the establishment of both efficient and systematic measures for integrated flood management on a watershed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.671-683
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• 2018

The flood damage caused by heavy rains in urban watershed is increasing, and, as evidenced by many previous studies, urban flooding usually exceeds the water capacity of drainage networks. The flood on the area which considerably urbanized and densely populated cause serious social and economic damage. To solve this problem, deterministic and probabilistic studies have been conducted for the prediction flooding in urban areas. However, it is insufficient to obtain lead times and to derive the prediction results for the flood volume in a short period of time. In this study, IDNN, TDNN and NARX were compared for real-time flood prediction based on urban runoff analysis to present the optimal real-time urban flood prediction technique. As a result of the flood prediction with rainfall event of 2010 and 2011 in Gangnam area, the Nash efficiency coefficient of the input delay artificial neural network, the time delay neural network and nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs are 0.86, 0.92, 0.99 and 0.53, 0.41, 0.98 respectively. Comparing with the result of the error analysis on the predicted result, it is revealed that the use of nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs must be appropriate for the establishment of urban flood response system in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.10
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• pp.995-1007
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• 2008

Studies on modeling the rainfall-runoff relationship which shows nonlinear trend strongly use artificial neural networks theory not only for the prediction but also for the characteristics analysis of the data used by pattern classification. For the pattern classification, the results from Self-Organizing Map (SOM) mention that the map size and array for the SOM training have significantly influenced on the SOM performance. Since there is no deterministic method or theoretical equation to determine the number of rows and columns for the map size, hexagonal array is generally used for the map array. Therefore, this study present a determination of the optimized map structure for the rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station considering the map size and array simultaneously which can represent the classified characterization of rainfall-runoff relationship. The result showed that the map size of 20$\times$16 hexagonal array with 8-clustered patterns was selected as an appropriate map structure for rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.62-72
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• 2019

Due to the difficulties in forecasting the intensity and the source location of tsunami the countermeasures prepared based on the deterministic approach fail to work properly. Thus, there is an increasing demand of the tsunami hazard analyses that consider the uncertainties of tsunami behavior in probabilistic approach. In this paper a fundamental study is conducted to perform the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) for the tsunamis that caused the disaster to the east coast of Korea. A logic tree approach is employed to consider the uncertainties of the initial free surface displacement and the tsunami height distribution along the coast. The branches of the logic tree are constructed by reflecting characteristics of tsunamis that have attacked the east coast of Korea. The computational time is nonlinearly increasing if the number of branches increases in the process of extracting the fractile curves. Thus, an improved method valid even for the case of a huge number of branches is proposed to save the computational time. The performance of the discrete weight distribution method proposed first in this study is compared with those of the conventional sorting method and the Monte Carlo method. The present method is comparable to the conventional methods in its accuracy, and is efficient in the sense of computational time when compared with the conventional sorting method. The Monte Carlo method, however, is more efficient than the other two methods if the number of branches and the number of fault segments increase significantly.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.9
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• pp.827-837
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• 2018

The stabilities of sliding and overturning of caisson and bearing capacity of mound against eccentric and inclined loads, which possibly happen to a composite caisson breakwaters, have been analyzed by using the technique of multiple failure modes. In deterministic approach, mathematical functions have been first derived from the ultimate limit state equations. Using those functions, the minimum cross section of caisson can straightforwardly be evaluated. By taking a look into some various deterministic analyses, it has been found that the conflict between failure modes can be occurred, such that the stability of bearing capacity of mound decreased as the stability of sliding increased. Therefore, the multiple failure modes for the composite caisson breakwaters should be taken into account simultaneously even in the process of deterministically evaluating the design cross section of caisson. Meanwhile, the reliability analyses on multiple failure modes have been implemented to the cross section determined by the sliding failure mode. It has been shown that the system failure probabilities of the composite breakwater are very behaved differently according to the variation of incident waves. The failure probabilities of system tend also to increase as the crest freeboards of caisson are heightening. The similar behaviors are taken place in cases that the water depths above mound are deepening. Finally, the results of the first-order modal are quite coincided with those of the second-order modal in all conditions of numerical tests performed in this paper. However, the second-order modal have had higher accuracy than the first-order modal. This is mainly due to that some correlations between failure modes can be properly incorporated in the second-order modal. Nevertheless, the first-order modal can also be easily used only when one of failure probabilities among multiple failure modes is extremely larger than others.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.4D
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• pp.345-356
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• 2012

Road pavement requires repetitive maintenance works to maintain satisfactory service level to the public. However, the repetitive maintenance works upon deteriorated pavement structure make negative effects to deterioration speed. It often leads to inefficient use of limited budget. For that reason, the pavements require reconstruction work to recover their original performance. Recently, construction demands in the Korean national highway have already been reached to maximum level, and the aged pavements start to demand much more reconstruction works. However, in the real world, road agencies have often been confused when they determine maintenance design for such aged road sections due to budget constraint. It is because there is no reliable long-term maintenance strategy that supports their decision making. To support their decision making, this paper aimed to suggest the best maintenance strategy considering changing process of pavement performance by repetitive maintenance works. As an analysis method, probability distribution and hazard function to estimate the life expectancy were adopted, and then the results were used for long-term life cycle cost analysis with deterministic or Monte-Carlo method under various scenarios. As an empirical study, the Korean national highway data that has long-maintenance history data since 1986 has been applied. Last, this paper considered quality assurance of maintenance work to improve maintenance quality. These could be important information as a part of long-term maintenance strategy of pavement.