• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.100-107
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• 1999

This paper describes a probabilistic remaining life assessment program for the creep crack growth. The probabilistic life assessment program is developed to increase the reliability of life assessment. The probabilistic life assessment involves some uncertainties, such as, initial crack size, material properties, and loading condition, and a triangle distribution function is used for random variable generation. The resulting information provides the engineer with an assessment of the probability of structural failure as a function of operating time given the uncertainties in the input data. This study forms basis of the probabilistic life assessment technique and will be extended to other damage mechanisms.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.161-167
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• 2019

In general, fatigue analysis is performed by using deterministic model to estimate the optimal parameters. However, the deterministic model is difficult to clearly describe the physical phenomena of fatigue failure that contains many uncertainty factors. With regard to this, efforts have been made in this research to compare with the deterministic model and the stochastic models. Firstly, One deterministic S-N curve was derived from ordinary least squares technique and two P-S-N curves were estimated through Bayesian-linear regression model and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Secondly, the distribution of Long-term fatigue damage and fatigue life were predicted by using the parameters obtained from the three methodologies and the long-term stress distribution.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2006년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.473-480
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• 2006

Liquefaction of soil foundation is one of the major seismic damage types of infrastructures. In this paper, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of liquefaction potential are briefly summarized and the risk assessment method is newly proposed using seismic fragility and seismic hazard curves. Currently the deterministic approach is widely used to evaluate the liquefaction potential in Korea. However, the there are a certain degree of uncertainties in the soil properties such as elastic modulus and resistant capacity, therefore the probabilistic approach is more promising. Two types of probabilistic approach are introduced including (1) failure probability for a given design earthquake and (2) the seismic risk of liquefaction of soil for a given service life. The results from different methods show a similar trend, and the liquefaction potential can be more quantitatively evaluated using risk analysis method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제48권6호
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• pp.1423-1432
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• 2016

The integrity of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) related to pressurized thermal shocks (PTSs) has been extensively studied. This paper introduces an integrity assessment of an RPV subjected to a PTS transient based on the French codes. In the USA, the "screening criterion" for maximum allowable embrittlement of RPV material is developed based on the probabilistic fracture mechanics. However, in the French RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are developed based on the deterministic fracture mechanics, there is no "screening criterion". In this paper, the methodology in the RCC-M and RSE-M codes, which are used for PTS analysis, are firstly discussed. The bases of the French codes are compared with ASME and FAVOR codes. A case study is also presented. The results show that the method in the RCC-M code that accounts for the influence of cladding on the stress intensity factor (SIF) may be nonconservative. The SIF almost doubles if the weld residual stress is considered. The approaches included in the codes differ in many aspects, which may result in significant differences in the assessment results. Therefore, homogenization of the codes in the long time operation of nuclear power plants is needed.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권5C호
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• pp.313-322
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• 2006

지반 액상화는 대표적인 지진 피해의 한 형태로 이 연구에서는 이러한 지반 액상화 가능성 평가를 위한 확률적 접근 방법을 제시하였다. 일정한 사용기간 동안의 지진에 의한 액상화 발생확률을 구하기 위하여 액상화 취약도와 지진재해도를 결합하여 액상화 위험도를 산정할 수 있도록 하였다. 현재 국내에서는 결정론적인 방법이 많이 이용되고 있으나, 이러한 방법은 지반 물성치에 포함되어 있는 많은 불확실성을 합리적으로 다루기 어려운 단점이 있다. 두 가지 형태의 확률적 접근 방법을 제시하였는데, 첫번째는 설계지진에 대한 확률적 신뢰도 해석 방법이고, 두번째는 주어진 지반조건에 대하여 일정한 사용기간 동안 액상화가 발생할 수 있는 가능성을 평가한 위험도 해석 방법이다. 기존의 결정론적 방법과 확률적 방법에 의하여 매립지반의 액상화를 평가하였으며, 위험도 해석에 의한 액상화 가능성 평가기법을 지속적으로 적용하고, 설계기준이 제시된다면 보다 합리적이고, 정량적인 지반 액상화 가능성 평가기법이 될 수 있음을 검증하였다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.681-697
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• 2015

Iran as one of the countries located on the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt has recently experienced a few number of catastrophic earthquakes. A well-known index of how buildings are affected by earthquakes is through assessment of probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and structures' response spectra. In this research, active faults around Kerman and Birjand, two major cities in eastern parts of Iran, have been considered. Seismic catalogues are gathered to categorize effects of surrounding faults on seismicity of the region. These catalogues were further refined with respect to time and space based on Knopoff-Gardner algorithm in order to increase statistical independency of events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been estimated for each of cities regarding 50, 100, 200 and 500 years of structures' effective life-span. These results subsequently have been compared with Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). It has been observed that DSHA not necessarily suggests upper bound of PSHA results. Furthermore, based on spectral Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) and spectral acceleration were provided for 2% and 10% levels of probability of exceedance. The results show that increasing source-to-site distance leads to spectral acceleration reduction regarding each fault. In addition, the spectral acceleration rate of variation would increase if the source-to-site distance decreases.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제41권8호
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• pp.619-624
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• 2013

확률론적 수명예측은 파라미터들의 불확실성에 대하여 확률론적인 요소를 적용한다. 따라서 기존의 결정론적 수명해석 기법에 확률론적 기법을 적용하기 위해서는 파손확률을 이용한 위험도 평가가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 항공기 구조물의 확률론적 위험도평가를 수행하기 위하여 파손확률 추정 모델링 기법을 연구하였다. 이를 위해 파라미터들의 확률론적 불확실성을 효과적으로 반영할 수 있는 베이지안 기법을 이용하여 파손확률을 모델링하고 실험 데이터를 이용하여 검증하였다. 연구결과 베이지안 기반의 파손확률 추정 모델링은 정량적인 파손확률을 계산하고 확률론적 위험도평가를 효과적으로 수행할 수 있음을 입증하였다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.113-119
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• 2014

LCC 분석은 건축물의 설계단계 뿐만 아니라 유지관리 단계에서의 보수 보강 또는 교체에 대한 최적 의사결정의 도구로서 이론적으로나 실무적으로 각광을 받고 있는 분석 방법이다. 이는 초기 투자비용의 효율성을 극대화 하고 유지관리를 통한 구조물 사용성의 효율적 증대를 극대화하는 노력의 일환으로 최근 건축물의 설계 및 유지관리 시 LCC 분석효과의 실질적인 적용이 요구되어 지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 일반적인 분석기법에 그치고 있는 기존 LCC 연구를 생애위험도를 고려한 LCC분석을 통해 설계단계 최적 의사결정을 위한 새로운 분석 방법론을 도출하였다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.43-50
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• 2009

Strong ground motion attenuation relationship represents a comprehensive trend of ground shakings at sites with distances from the source, geology, local soil conditions, and others. It is necessary to develop an attenuation relationship with careful considerations of characteristics of the target area for reliable seismic hazard/risk assessments. In the study, observed ground motions from the January 2007 magnitude 4.9 Odaesan earthquake and the events occurring in the Gyeongsang provinces are compared with the previously proposed ground attenuation relationships in the Korean Peninsula to select most appropriate one. In the meantime, a few strong ground motion attenuation relationships are proposed and introduced in HAZUS, which have been designed for the Western United States and the Central and Eastern United States. The selected relationship from the ones for the Korean Peninsula has been compared with attenuation relationships available in HAZUS. Then, the attenuation relation for the Western United States proposed by Sadigh et al. (1997) for the Site Class B has been selected for this study. Reliability of the assessment will be improved by using an appropriate attenuation relation. It has been used for the earthquake loss estimation of the Gyeongju area located in southeast Korea using the deterministic method in HAZUS with a scenario earthquake (M=6.7). Our preliminary estimates show 15.6% damage of houses, shelter needs for about three thousands residents, and 75 life losses in the study area for the scenario events occurring at 2 A.M. Approximately 96% of hospitals will be in normal operation in 24 hours from the proposed event. Losses related to houses will be more than 114 million US dollars. Application of the improved methodology for loss estimation in Korea will help decision makers for planning disaster responses and hazard mitigation.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.236-243
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• 2010

전력품질 문제는 다양한 산업분야에서 중요한 역할을 차지한다. 전력품질솔루션 선택의 폭은 점점 다양해지고 있으며, 특히 순간전압강하와 정전에 대한 보상장치를 선정하는 것은 전력회사나 수용가 모두에게 중요한 과제이다. 이것은 기술적인 관점에서 뿐만 아니라 경제적인 관점에서도 같이 고려되어야 하는데 불행히도 지금까지는 주로 경험에 의해 결정되어졌다. 본 논문에서는 순간전압강하 보상장치 선정을 위한 위험도 분석을 확정적 방법과 확률론적 방법으로 수명비용을 계산하여 두 가지 방법의 결과 해석에 대한 차이점을 모의사례를 통하여 비교하고자한다.