• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제57권5호
• /
• pp.69-80
• /
• 2015

The majority of projections of future climate come from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), which vary in the way they were modeled the climate system, and so it produces different projections about conceptualizing of the weather system. To implement climate change impact assessment, it is necessary to analyze trends of various GCMs and select appropriate GCM. In this study, climate data in 25 GCMs 41 outputs provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was downscaled at eight stations. From preliminary analysis of variations in projected temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration, five GCM outputs were identified as candidates for the climate change impact analysis as they cover wide ranges of the variations. Also, GCM outputs are compared with trends of HadGCM3-RA, which are established by the Korean Meteorological Administration. From the results, it can contribute to select appropriate GCMs and to obtain reasonable results for the assessment of climate change.

• 한국기후변화학회지
• /
• 제7권4호
• /
• pp.451-463
• /
• 2016

We explore the impact of Chinese future air pollutant emissions on ozone air quality in Northeast Asia (NEA) and health in South-Korea using an assessment framework including ICAMS (The Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System) and BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). The emissions data sets from the climate change scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (emission scenarios, EMSO), are used to simulate ozone air quality in NEA in the current (1996~2005, 2000s), the near future (2016~2025, 2020s) and the distant future (2046~2055, 2050s). Furthermore, the simulated ozone changes in the 2050s are used to analyze ozone-related premature mortality and economic cost in South-Korea. While different EMSOs are applied to the China region, fixed EMSO are used for other country regions to isolate the impacts of the Chinese emissions. Predicted ozone changes in NEA are distinctively affected by large changes in NOx emission over most of China region. Comparing the 2020s with the 2000s situation, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations in NEA is simulated under RCP 8.5 and similarly small increases are under other RCPs. In the 2050s in NEA, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations is simulated under RCP 6.0 and leads to the occurrence of the highest premature mortalities and economic costs in South-Korea. Whereas, the largest decrease is simulated under RCP 4.5 leads to the highest avoided premature mortality numbers and economic costs. Our results suggest that continuous reduction of NOx emissions across the China region under an assertive climate change mitigation scenario like RCP 4.5 leads to improved future ozone air quality and health benefits in the NEA countries including South-Korea.

• 대기
• /
• 제33권2호
• /
• pp.297-306
• /
• 2023

Celebrating its 60th anniversary, this study suggests the future vision of the Korean Meteorological Society (KMS) for the next 60 years. The vision is "to advance atmospheric science and technology that contributes to human society as well as protect people from not only climate change risks but also weather, climate, and environmental disasters". Based on the suggestions from its members, this study proposes the KMS future development plan as follows. The first plan is to strengthen in leading the development and growth of atmospheric sciences in Korea, especially to improve weather, climate, and environment forecasts and to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. The second is to enhance interaction not only among its members in academy, Korea Meteorological Administration and related organizations, meteorological industry, and science communicators but also with other related fields such as energy, water resources, agriculture, fishery, and forestry. The third is to enhance in nurturing young scientists by supporting domestic and international networks and training the state-of-the-art sciences, and to create opportunities for young scientists to advance into a wider field. The last is to expand its international activities for solving the challenges facing mankind, such as climate change risks and weather, climate, and environment disasters. The KMS should also continue the efforts to establish an integrative platform for leading fundamental and interdisciplinary research in weather, climate, and environment.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
• /
• 제11권4호
• /
• pp.330-343
• /
• 2017

Climate change is an important issue, with many researches examining not only future climatic conditions, but also the interaction of climate and air quality. In this study, a new version of the emissions processing software tool - Python-based PRocessing Operator for Climate and Emission Scenarios (PROCES) - was developed to support climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling studies. PROCES was designed to cover global and regional scale modeling domains, which correspond to GEOS-Chem and CMAQ/CAMx models, respectively. This tool comprises of one main system and two units of external software. One of the external software units for this processing system was developed using the GIS commercial program, which was used to create spatial allocation profiles as an auxiliary database. The SMOKE-Asia emissions modeling system was linked to the main system as an external software, to create model-ready emissions for regional scale air quality modeling. The main system was coded in Python version 2.7, which includes several functions allowing general emissions processing steps, such as emissions interpolation, spatial allocation and chemical speciation, to create model-ready emissions and auxiliary inputs of SMOKE-Asia, as well as user-friendly functions related to emissions analysis, such as verification and visualization. Due to its flexible software architecture, PROCES can be applied to any pregridded emission data, as well as regional inventories. The application results of our new tool for global and regional (East Asia) scale modeling domain under RCP scenario for the years 1995-2006, 2015-2025, and 2040-2055 was quantitatively in good agreement with the reference data of RCPs.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.1-12
• /
• 2006

The purpose of this research is to understand the role of safety climate in the safety management system. Based on the 121 responses from facilities got Occupational Health & Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) 18000 certification, the results of statistic analysis show that there is significant relationship between safety climate, work attitudes and Organizational Citizenship Behaviors (OCB). The most important finding is the relationship between safety climate and organizational commitment will mediate the relationship.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제61권1호
• /
• pp.45-59
• /
• 2019

Since the baseflow, which constitutes most of the river flow in the dry season, plays an important role in the solution of river runoff and drought, it is important to accurately evaluate the characteristics of the baseflow for river management. In this study, land use change was evaluated through time series data of land use, and then baseflow characteristics were analyzed by considering climate change and land use change using climate change scenarios. The results showed that the contribution of baseflow of scenarios considering both climate change and land use change was lower than that of scenarios considering only climate change for yearly and seasonal analysis. This implies that land use changes as well as climate changes affect base runoff. Thus, if we study the watershed in which the land use is occurring rapidly in the future, it is considered that the study should be carried out considering both land use change and climate change. The results of this study can be used as basic data for studying the baseflow characteristics in the Gapcheon watershed considering various land use changes and climate change in the future.

• 대기
• /
• 제34권1호
• /
• pp.55-67
• /
• 2024

This paper aims to provide a detailed introduction to the concept of the Ratio of Predictable Component (RPC) and the Signal-to-Noise Paradox. Then, we derive insights from them by exploring the paradoxical features by conducting a seasonal and regional analysis through ensemble expansion in KMA's climate prediction system (GloSea). We also provide an explanation of the ensemble generation method, with a specific focus on stochastic physics. Through this study, we can provide the predictability limits of our forecasting system, and find way to enhance it. On a global scale, RPC reaches a value of 1 when the ensemble is expanded to a maximum of 56 members, underlining the significance of ensemble expansion in the climate prediction system. The feature indicating RPC paradoxically exceeding 1 becomes particularly evident in the winter North Atlantic and the summer North Pacific. In the Siberian Continent, predictability is notably low, persisting even as the ensemble size increases. This region, characterized by a low RPC, is considered challenging for making reliable predictions, highlighting the need for further improvement in the model and initialization processes related to land processes. In contrast, the tropical ocean demonstrates robust predictability while maintaining an RPC of 1. Through this study, we have brought to attention the limitations of potential predictability within the climate prediction system, emphasizing the necessity of leveraging predictable signals with high RPC values. We also underscore the importance of continuous efforts aimed at improving models and initializations to overcome these limitations.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제30권5호
• /
• pp.434-448
• /
• 2014

The aerosol characteristics between haze episode and Asian dust event were identified in January and March, 2013 in Gwang-ju of Korea to investigate the metal elements, ionic concentrations and carbonaceous particles of $PM_{2.5}$ and $PM_{10}$. In the haze episode, the concentrations were increased 1~3.2 times of ionic species and 1.6~2.7 of metal elements. Especially, the concentration of $NO{_3}{^-}$, $SO{_4}{^2-}$ and $NH{_4}{^+}$ consists of 50 percent in ionic species during haze episode that was higher than Asian dust event. This suggests that secondary aerosols from anthropogenic air pollution were mainly contributed by haze episode. During the Asian dust event, increase of metal concentrations was higher than haze episode because of remarkable increase of Ti, K and Fe originated from soil. The concentrations of carbonaceous particles were increased 2.5 times during haze episode, and 2.4 times of OC and 2.1 times of EC during Asian dust event in $PM_{2.5}$. However, these aerosol mass concentration does not affect the OC/EC ratio. The average equivalence ratios of cations/anions in $PM_{2.5}$ were 0.99 in haze episodes and 0.94 during non-event day. The neutralization factor of $NH_3$ was higher than that of $CaCO_3$. Futhermore, $NH{_4}{^+}$ aerosol was aged due to atmospheric stagnation that might be affected by the haze episode.

• 한국기후변화학회지
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.103-115
• /
• 2018

The uncertainty of climate scenarios, as initial information, is one of the significant factors among uncertainties of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. In this sense, the quantification of the uncertainty of climate scenarios is essential to understanding these assessments of impacts and vulnerability for adaptation to climate change. Here we quantified the precision of surface temperature of ensemble scenarios (high resolution (1km) RCP4.5 and 8.5) provided by Korea Meteorological Administration, with spatiotemporal variation of the standard deviation of them. From 2021 to 2050, the annual increase rate of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5 while the annual variation of RCP8.5 was lower than that of RCP4.5. The standard deviations of ensemble scenarios are higher in summer and winter, particularly in July and January, when the extreme weather events could occur. In general, the uncertainty of ensemble scenarios in summer were lower than those in winter. In spatial distribution, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios in Seoul Metropolitan Area is relatively higher than other provinces, while that of Yeongnam area is lower than other provinces. In winter, the standard deviations of ensemble scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 in January are higher than those of December. Especially, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios is higher in the central regions including Gyeonggi, and Gangwon, where the mean surface temperature is lower than southern regions along with Chungbuk. Such differences in precisions of climate ensemble scenarios imply that those uncertainty information should be taken into account for the implementation of national climate change policy.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
• /
• 제12권4호
• /
• pp.31-39
• /
• 2010

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of stress response on safety behavior and to explore moderating effect of safety climate between stress response and safety behavior. 224 workers were asked to respond to the questionnaires that measured various demographic variables, stress response, safety climates and safety behaviors. A hierarchical regression was conducted to identify variables that had significant relationships with safety behavior and to examine moderating effect of safety climate between stress response and safety behavior. Results indicated that the depression response significantly predicted safety behavior. It was found that the safety climate was also a significant predictor for safety behavior. In addition, safety climate had a moderating effect on the relation between depression and anger responses and safety behavior.