• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand-side impact

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Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Effect of Spring Potato Cultivation Period on Growth, Yield and Processing Quality of Autumn Potato Cultivars (봄감자 재배기간이 가을감자 품종의 생육, 수량 및 가공품질에 미치는 영향)

  • Gyu Bin Lee;Jang Gyu Choi;Do Hee Kwon;Jae Youn Yi;Hee Tae Lee;Yong Ik Jin
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.149-160
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    • 2024
  • In Korea, potatoes have served as a side dish, but their role as snacks, such as chips or French fries, has recently gained traction. While there is a high demand for processing potatoes, there remains a dearth of research on the impact of double cropping, particularly during autumn, on processing quality. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the effects of different spring potato cultivation periods on growth, yield, and processing quality during autumn cultivation. Following spring planting, harvest was carried out four times: 70 days, 80 days, 90 days, and 100 days. Subsequently, autumn cultivation was carried out in Gangneung and Seocheon regions using these seed potatoes. Results showed an increase in above-ground emergence rate with shorter spring growing period. When seed potatoes with a spring cultivation period of 80 and 90 days were grown in the autumn in the Gangneung region, the stem length was 47.2 to 48.9, which was greater than that of other treatments. However, stem number and leaf color (SPAD) showed no significant differences across cultivation periods. The number of tubers, tuber weight, yield, and marketable yield did not vary significantly with cultivation periods but described clear cultivar dependent differences. The tuber weight of the Saebong cultivar in Gangneung and the Eunseon cultivar in Seocheon was superior. The starch content peaked at 7.9% when seed potatoes grown for 80 days in the spring were harvested after autumn cultivation in the Gangneung region, but there was no significant differences in the Seocheon region. Glucose content showed a clear difference depending on the cultivation period, increasing with longer spring cultivation period during autumn cultivation. In conclusion, as a result of the effect of the spring potato cultivation period on the growth, yield, and processing quality of tubers when cultivating potatoes in double-cropping, the differences depending on the cultivation period were insignificant, while cultivar-based disparities were pronounced. The Eunseon cultivar exhibited robust above-ground growth and yield, while the Saebong cultivar demonstrated excellent processing quality.