• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand forecasting

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Estimation for Daily Mean 10cm Soil Temperature (토양온도(土壤溫度)의 변화예측(變化豫測))

  • Park, Chang-Seo;Jung, Sug-Jae;Hyeon, Geun-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.289-293
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    • 1993
  • To comply with the increasing demand from the agricultural industry for more accurate short-range weather information, statistical method for forecasting soil temperature was presented. Regression equation was derived to predict daily mean 10cm soil temperature for any day the year. The equation was based upon 10-daily mean 10cm soil temperature(10DM 10ST) for 6 years(1982~1987) at grass in Suweon. The possibility of estimating daily mean 10cm soil temperature was examined.

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Oil Price Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Techniques (기계학습기법에 기반한 국제 유가 예측 모델)

  • Park, Kang-Hee;Hou, Tianya;Shin, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.64-73
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    • 2011
  • Oil price prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the government and the related industries. When employing the time series techniques for prediction, however, it becomes difficult and challenging since the behavior of the series of oil prices is dominated by quantitatively unexplained irregular external factors, e.g., supply- or demand-side shocks, political conflicts specific to events in the Middle East, and direct or indirect influences from other global economical indices, etc. Identifying and quantifying the relationship between oil price and those external factors may provide more relevant prediction than attempting to unclose the underlying structure of the series itself. Technically, this implies the prediction is to be based on the vectoral data on the degrees of the relationship rather than the series data. This paper proposes a novel method for time series prediction of using Semi-Supervised Learning that was originally designed only for the vector types of data. First, several time series of oil prices and other economical indices are transformed into the multiple dimensional vectors by the various types of technical indicators and the diverse combination of the indicator-specific hyper-parameters. Then, to avoid the curse of dimensionality and redundancy among the dimensions, the wellknown feature extraction techniques, PCA and NLPCA, are employed. With the extracted features, a timepointspecific similarity matrix of oil prices and other economical indices is built and finally, Semi-Supervised Learning generates one-timepoint-ahead prediction. The series of crude oil prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was used to verify the proposed method, and the experiments showed promising results : 0.86 of the average AUC.

A Methodology for Expanding Sample OD Based on Probe Vehicle (프로브 차량 기반 표본 OD의 전수화 기법)

  • Baek, Seung-Kirl;Jeong, So-Young;Kim, Hyun-Myung;Choi, Kee-Choo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2008
  • As a fundamental input to the travel demand forecasting, OD has been always a concern in obtaining the accurate link traffic volume. Numerous methods were applied thus far without a complete success. Some existing OD estimation techniques generally extract regular samples and expand those sample into population. These methods, however, leaves some to be desired in terms of accuracy. To complement such problems, research on estimating OD using additional information such as link traffic volume as well as sample link use rate have been accomplished. In this paper, a new approach for estimating static origin-destination (OD) using probe vehicle has been proposed. More specifically, this paper tried to search an effective sample rate which varies over time and space. In a sample test network study, the traffic volume error rate of each link was set as objective function in solving the problem. As a key result the MAE (mean absolute error) between expanded OD and actual OD was identified as about 5.28%. The developed methodology could be applied with similar cases. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been discussed.

The Correlation Study of Factors which effect on Insulation Reliability of Inverter Motor Using Statistical Analysis (통계 분석을 이용한 인버터용 전동기의 절연신뢰성에 영향을 주는 주요 변수의 상관관계 분석)

  • Han, Sang-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1216-1221
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    • 2010
  • An industrial growth needs high quality of productivity and accuracy. So, the needs of power electronics became pressing. Recently both interest and demand about the technique of power electronics systems has been increased. Though power electronics has a lot of strong point, there are several problems which are harmonic effect, EMI(Electromagnetic Interference), malfunction of electric machinery, harmful effect on human, audible noise and so on. Because these problem are a potent influence on motor, so there needs the manufacture and redesign of motor. The real motors of industrial application have designed and manufactured on the basis of confidence. The study on motor using utility power source was verified sufficient to identify confidence of electric machinery on utility power source. However, a study on confidence is in progress about pulse source by switching device. An advanced company are studying to solve this problem. In this research, it is studied that each variables effecting motor reliability have correlation through experiment and more over forecasting the reliability of motor under inverter operation.

Application to the Water and Sediment Model for the Management of Water Quality in Eutrophicated Seto Inland Sea, Japan (부영양화된 뢰호내해의 수질관리를 위한 수ㆍ저질예측모델의 적용)

  • Lee In Cheol;Chang Sun-duck;Kim Jong Kyu;Ukita Masao
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.96-108
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    • 1998
  • The management of water quality and fishery resources with a major environmental problem in eutrophic coastal sea is studied. The numerical experiments using the water-sediment quality model (WSQM) were carried out for the management of water quality at the Seto Inland Sea in Japan. The results of long-term water quality simulation showed responses of seawater quality to input loads to vary in different localities. A formula roughly forecasting water qualify to estimate the effect of loading abatement was proposed. The simulation for the improvement of seawater quality showed the abatements of nutrient loads such as total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) as well as organic loads such as chemical oxygen demand (COD) to be peformed in the eastern Seto Inland Sea from Bisan Seto to Osaka Bay. On the other hand, it is indicated that the increase of loading leads to the increase of primary production. while not straightly to the increase of fish production for the catch of fisheries.

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Building Energy Management System with Next Day Demand Forecasting of Building Load (익일 빌딩 부하 예측 기능을 갖는 빌딩에너지관리시스템)

  • Choi, Sang-Yule
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.119-123
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    • 2014
  • The main purpose of reactive power compensation monitoring system is to manage factory electrical installation efficiently by On-Off switching reactive power compensation equipment. The existing reactive power compensation monitoring system is only able to be managed by operator whenever electrical installation needed reactive power. Therefore, it may be possible for propagating the installation's faults when operator make the unexpected mistakes. To overcome the unexpected mistakes, in this paper, the author presents a reactive power compensation monitoring system for factory electrical installation using active database. by using active database production rule, stated system can minimize unexpected mistake and can operate centralized monitoring system efficiently. Test results on the five factory electrical installations show that performance is efficient and robust.

A Study on the Price Fluctuation and Forecasting of Aquacultural Flatfish in Korea (양식 넙치의 가격변동 및 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ock, Young-Soo;Kim, Sang-Tea;Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Fisheries Business Administration Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2007
  • In Side of Supply and Demand of Fisheries Products, The Aquacultural Industry stayed in subsidized situation for the whole fishery industry of korea when it's dawned. But nowaday, the Aquacultural Industry has been developed to unique industry itself, and it could be said the Hoe - korean style Sashimi or Sushi culture of korea can't exist without its aquacultural industry. So it could be said that the Aquacultural industry is not only a part of the fishery industry but also inevitable unique industry. The main objective of this paper is to analysis the present situation for production of Flatfish, distribution of Flatfish, and consumption structure of Flatfish. Especially, the production for aquacultural Flatfish in 2005 has been raised over 38 times against the production in 1990, and it takes the status as the major fish which leads the domestic aqua cultural industry compare with others. The distribution of Flatfish can be divided to the domestic and export mainly. In field of its domestic distribution, Flatfish is the major item with Rockfish, and the deal of its over 90% happens in Similarity Fishery Wholesale Markets such as In-chon, Ha-nam, and Bu-san Fishery Wholesale Market not in the common distribution process of the fishery products. At present, the exporting of Flatfish take 13.9% among the whole Aquacultural Industry of korea, and Flatfish mainly export to Japan. Also, through the development of chinese economy, Hoe consumption culture is expanded gradually. And the future of exporting Flatfish is very bright because of developing of the U.S. market. The brief introduction of the consumption style of live fish is as belows. According to the research, generally the most of korean consumers prefer individual item as their food to combination style in korean Hoe consumption culture and the favorite item of korean consumers are Flatfish and Rockfish.

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Development of the method for optimal water supply pump operation considering disinfection performance (소독능을 고려한 송수펌프 최적운영기법 개발)

  • Hyung, Jinseok;Kim, Kibum;Seo, Jeewon;Kim, Taehyeon;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.421-434
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    • 2018
  • Water supply/intake pumps operation use 70~80% of power costs in water treatment plants. In the water treatment plant, seasonal and hourly differential electricity rates are applied, so proper pump scheduling can yield power cost savings. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to develop an optimal water supply pump scheduling scheme. An optimal operation method of water supply pumps by using genetic algorithm was developed. Also, a method to minimize power cost for water supply pump operation based on pump performance derived from the thermodynamic pump efficiency measurement method was proposed. Water level constraints to provide sufficient disinfection performance in a clearwell and reservoirs were calibrated. In addition, continuous operation time constraints were calibrated to prevent frequent pump switching. As a result of optimization, savings ratios during 7 days in winter and summer were 4.5% and 5.1%, respectively. In this study, the method for optimal water pump operation was developed to secure disinfection performance in the clearwell and to save power cost. It is expected that it will be used as a more advanced optimal water pump operation method through further studies such as water demand forecasting and efficiency according to pump combination.

Relation with Activity of Road Mobile Source and Roadside Nitrogen Oxide Concentration (도로이동오염원의 활동도와 도로변 질소산화물 농도의 관계)

  • Kim, Jin Sik;Choi, Yun Ju;Lee, Kyoung Bin;Kim, Shin Do
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2016
  • Ozone has been a problem in big cities. That is secondary air pollutant produced by nitrogen oxide and VOCs in the atmosphere. In order to solve this, the first to be the analysis of the $NO_x$ and VOCs. The main source of nitrogen oxide is the road mobile. Industrial sources in Seoul are particularly low, and mobile traffics on roads are large, so 45% of total $NO_x$ are estimated that road mobile emissions in Seoul. Thus, it is necessary to clarify the relation with the activity of road mobile source and $NO_x$ concentration. In this study, we analyzed the 4 locations with roadside automatic monitoring systems in their center. The V.K.T. calculating areas are set in circles with 50 meter spacing, 50 meter to 500 meter from their center. We assumed the total V.K.T. in the set radius affect the $NO_x$ concentration in the center. We used the hourly $NO_x$ concentrations data for the 4 observation points in July for the interference of the other sources are minimized. We used the intersection traffic survey data of all direction for construction of the V.K.T. data, the mobile activities on the roads. ArcGIS application was used for calculating the length of roads in the set radius. The V.K.T. data are multiplied by segment traffic volume and length of roads. As a result, the $NO_x$ concentration can be expressed as linear function formula for V.K.T. with high predictive power. Moreover we separated background concentration and concentrations due to road mobile source. These results can be used for forecasting the effect of traffic demand management plan.

A Filed Survey of Web Services Usage and Proposition of Activation Guideline (웹서비스 이용 현황 조사 및 도입 활성화 방안)

  • 김동수;유천수
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2003
  • Web Services are rapidly gaining attention as the service oriented distributed computing paradigm over the Internet. Web services are currently highlighted not only due to its role as an enterprise application integrator, but also as the method of mediating inter-enterprise collaborative works. This research analyzes, categorizes, and provides current status and forecasting of core technology and standardization issues concerning web services. The results of this research could be used as the base information for understanding and establishing strategies concerning the fundamental technologies of web services. Also, the demand and status of domestic markets of web services are thoroughly analyzed. Based on this analysis, guidelines for the adaptation of web services by the government and domestic enterprises are presented. The results of this research provides appropriate alternatives to domestic enterprises by evaluating web service technology trends, and further on provides methods of web services market activation on a national scale

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