• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.449-457
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• 2022

The Port of Busan is currently ranked as the seventh largest container port worldwide in terms of cargo throughput. However, port competition in the Far-East region is fierce. The growth rate of container throughput handled by the port of Busan has recently slowed down. In this study, we analyzed how economic conditions and multiple external shocks could influence cargo throughput and identified potential implications for port business. The aim of this study was to build a model to accurately forecast port throughput using the ARIMA model, which could incorporate external socio-economic shocks, and the VEC model considering causal variables having long-term effects on transshipment cargo. Findings of this study suggest that there are three main areas affecting container throughput in the port of Busan, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, the increased competition for transshipment cargo of Chinese ports, and the weaker growth rate of the Korean economy. Based on the forecast, in order for the Port of the Port of Busan to continue to grow as a logistics hub in Northeast-Asia, policy intervention is necessary to diversify the demand for transshipment cargo and maximize benefits of planned infrastructural investments.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.698-699
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• 2015

For last three years, our research team have conducted the project named "Development of construction project management technology based on BIM/GIS platform. "We developed construction cost estimation system as well as 3D modeling engine at the first two year and established a web-system which could estimate the benefits of the project and further analyze the economic and financial feasibility of the project. This paper mainly focused on the functions and specifications of web-system. The system was composed of two modules: economic feasibility estimation module and financial feasibility estimation module. While the economic feasibility estimation module determines economic feasibility of the project based on traffic demand forecasting from the public's perspective, the financial feasibility estimation module determine financial viability of the project using toll fee of the road from private entity's perspective. Compared with traditional feasibility study, the proposed system provide users with better flexibility which can make users easily to validate the project upon the change of project environments. The system was also verified with an already accomplished project. The verification showed that proposed system could provide satisfactory accurate results with reduced time and resources.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.2701-2717
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• 2023

In this paper, a hybrid fuzzy-based method is suggested for determining India's best system for power generation. This suggested approach was created using a fuzzy-based combination of the Giza Pyramids Construction (GPC) and Recalling-Enhanced Recurrent Neural Network (RERNN). GPC is a meta-heuristic algorithm that deals with solutions for many groups of problems, whereas RERNN has selective memory properties. The evaluation of the current load requirements and production profile information system is the main objective of the suggested method. The Central Electricity Authority database, the Indian National Load Dispatch Centre, regional load dispatching centers, and annual reports of India were some of the sources used to compile the data regarding profiles of electricity loads, capacity factors, power plant generation, and transmission limits. The RERNN approach makes advantage of the ability to analyze the ideal power generation from energy data, however the optimization of RERNN factor necessitates the employment of a GPC technique. The proposed method was tested using MATLAB, and the findings indicate that it is effective in terms of accuracy, feasibility, and computing efficiency. The suggested hybrid system outperformed conventional models, achieving the top result of 93% accuracy with a shorter computation time of 6814 seconds.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.119-132
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• 2020

In this paper we explore the two analyses to know the urbanization effect on trade. First, the granger causality test to examine the relationship between trade and urbanization. The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. The results indicated that the existence of a bidirectional causality running from trade to urbanization when six lags were applied. When eight lags were applied, we found unidirectional causality running from urbanization to trade. Second, gravity models were used to investigate the urbanization effect on trade. The production cost and specification are affected by the economies of scale, and the economies of scale increased as the greater geographically agglomeration. However, the gravity model to explain the bilateral trade flows ignores the urbanization variables. Therefore we added the urbanization variable represented as the geographically agglomeration into gravity model. The results show that the degree of urbanization of both countries has statistically positive effect on trade (export and import) and the bigger coefficients of trade partner's urbanization. The reason is that the trade share of industrial supplies, intermediate goods and capital goods is much higher than finished consumer goods. The urbanization is more important the improved the efficiency of production than demand market.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.33-45
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• 2009

In the industry of landscape architecture, in which the core of production is manpower, the management of manpower is of utmost importance. The industry of landscape architecture, however, is highly sensitive to economic shifts and policy changes; this sensitivity renders the management of manpower-maintaining the balance between supply and demand-often times difficult. Currently, this vicious circle appears to persist in the sense that the industry suffers from a lack of skilled employees, and a new body of skilled laborers from the paucity of jobs. This study, in analyzing current manpower management as well as the prospective supply and demand in the field, looks forward to the stability of the supply and demand in landscape architecture in the nation. According to this study, the number of new skilled laborers-those who have a higher credential than that of "landscape architect-engineer"-is expected to increase by 10% per year. The number of new skilled laborers being 1,137 in 2008, it can be inferred that there will be a new group of 1,251 skilled laborers in the field in 2009. Meanwhile, estimating that the number of current skilled laborers in the field of landscape architecture is 14,783, the demand for new skilled laborers remains approximately 540. The supply of 1,251 skilled laborers outnumbers the demand of 540 by nearly 230%. Hence, the educational institutions of landscape architecture must be prepared to deal with this imbalance between the excessive supply and the lesser demand of skilled laborers. The issue of the excessive supply of manpower is particularly critical, because it may well undermine the competitiveness of the industry as a whole: compared to other related industries such as architecture and civil engineering, for instance. With the customary validation of long work experience no longer in effect, the need for an engineer's license will keep on increasing. It is time that educational institutions took this issue into full account and helped their students to be better qualified and more competent.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.915-929
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• 2023

Improvements in people's quality of life, diversification of leisure activities, and changes in population structure have led to an increase in the demand for tourism and an expansion of the diversification of tourism activities. In particular, for coastal cities where land and marine tourism elements coexist, various factors influence their tourism demands. Tourism requires the construction of infrastructure and content development according to the demand at the tourist destination. This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy and explore influencing factors through time series analysis of tourism scale using agent-based data. Basic local governments in the Busan area were examined, and the data used were the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption on a monthly basis. The univariate time series analysis, which is a deterministic model, was used along with the SARIMAX analysis to identify the influencing factor. The tourism consumption propensity, focusing on the consumption amount according to business types and the amount of mentions on SNS, was set as the influencing factor. The difference in accuracy (RMSE standard) between the time series models that did and did not consider COVID-19 was found to be very wide, ranging from 1.8 times to 32.7 times by region. Additionally, considering the influencing factor, the tourism consumption business type and SNS trends were found to significantly impact the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption. Therefore, to predict future demand, external influences as well as the tourists' consumption tendencies and interests in terms of local tourism must be considered. This study aimed to predict future tourism demand in a coastal city such as Busan and identify factors affecting tourism scale, thereby contributing to policy decision-making to prepare tourism demand in consideration of government tourism policies and tourism trends.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.120-128
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• 2024

From February to now 2024, there continues to be controversy over the expansion of admission number to medical school. Some of the controversy arises from a mix of present and future time points. In the present time point, the controversy over whether physicians are some shortages or not has various aspects. Some aspects are presented as evidence of the physician shortage and others as non-shortage. Also, the presenting evidence of shortage is being disputed, and so is the evidence of the contrary. This controversy over whether there is a shortage or not in the present time point makes it difficult to reach a consensus. In 10 years, the shortage of doctors will increase due to the rapid increase in the elderly population, so the admission number of medical schools will need to be increased. However, the increase must be such that there is minimal deterioration in the quality of medical education. More admission numbers should be allocated to medical schools with a high quality of medical education. This study suggests that large-scale medical schools increase the admission number by 20%-30%, and small-scale medical schools increase the admission number by 40%-50%, if so, the total increasing number is 760 to 1,066. If the 2,000-person increase is enforced, the quality of medical education must be carefully evaluated and the results should be reflected in adjusting the admission number of medical schools. In 20 years later, the admission number of medical schools will have to be reduced. This is because the physician supply is changing to a linear function and the physician demand (medical care demand) is changing to a quadratic function. Even if the current number is maintained, there will be an excess of doctors from 2048, so the medical school admission number must be reduced and its size will be reduced to about 2,000, a 30% reduction from the current number. Because the same reduction rate for all medical schools will result in many small-scale medical schools, the M&A (mergers and acquisitions) strategy should be considered with 40 medical schools and 12 Korean medical schools. In Korea, the main contributor to estimating physician demand is the change in population structure. Due to the rapid decrease in the total fertility rate, future population projections are uncertain. The recent rapid increase in healthcare utilization should be reexamined in the forecasting of physician demand. Since the various factors that affect the estimate of doctor supply and demand are unclear, the estimate of physician supply and demand must be continuously conducted every five years, and the Health Care Workforce Committee must be established and operated. The effects of increasing the admission number of medical schools should be evaluated and adjusted annually.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.89-97
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• 2004

The Korea Air Force(KAF) has operated freight flights based on the prefixed time and route schedule, which is adjusted once in a month. The major purpose of the operation of freight flights in the KAF is to distribute necessary supplies from the home air base to other air bases. The secondary purpose is to train the young pilots to get more experiences in navigation. Each freight flight starts from and returned to the home air base everyday except holidays, while it visits several other air bases to accomplish its missions. The study aims to forecast freight demand at each base by using time series analysis, and then it tried to optimize the cost of operating flights by solving vehicle routing problem. For more specifically, first, several constraints in operating cargos were defined by reviewing the Korea Air Force manuals and regulation. With such constraints, an integer programming problem was formulated for this specific routing problem allowing several visits in a tour with limitation of maximum number of visits. Then, an algorithm to solve the routing problem was developed. Second, the time series analysis method was applied to find out the freight demand at each air base from the mother air base in the next month. With the forecasted demands and the developed solution algorithm, the oprimum routes are calculated for each flight. Finally, the study compared the solved routing system by the developed algorithm with the existing routing system of the Korea Air Force. Through this comparison, the study proved that the proposed method can provide more (economically) efficient routing system than the existing system in terms of computing and monetary cost. In summary, the study suggested objective criteria for air routing plan in the KAF. It also developed the methods which could forecast properly the freight demands at each bases by using time series analysis and which could find the optimum routing which minimizes number of cargo needed. Finally, the study showed the economical savings with the optimized routing system by using real case example.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.83-97
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• 2000

The traffic management schemes through traffic signal control and information provision could be effective when the link-level data and trip-level data were used simultaneously in analysis Procedures. But, because the trip-level data. such as origin, destination and departure time, can not be obtained through the existing surveillance systems directly. It is needed to estimate it using the link-level data which can be obtained easily. Therefore the objective of this study is to develop the model to estimate O-D demand using only the link flows in highway network as a real time. The methodological approaches in this study are kalman filer, least-square method and normalized least-square method. The kalman filter is developed in the basis of the bayesian update. The normalized least-square method is developed in the basis of the least-square method and the natural constraint equation. These three models were experimented using two kinds of simulated data. The one has two abrupt changing Patterns in traffic flow rates The other is a 24 hours data that has three Peak times in a day Among these models, kalman filer has Produced more accurate and adaptive results than others. Therefore it is seemed that this model could be used in traffic demand management. control, travel time forecasting and dynamic assignment, and so forth.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.7-16
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• 2004

The homogeneous road section is defined as one consisted of similar traffic characteristics focused on demand and supply. The criteria, in the aspect of demand, are the diverging rate and the ratio of green time to cycle time at signalized intersection, and distance between the signalized intersections. The criteria, in that or supply, are the traffic patterns such as traffic volume and its speed. In this study, the effective method to generate valuable data, pointing out the problems of removal method of obscure data, is proposed using data collected from Gonjiam IC to Jangji IC on the national highway No.3. Travel times are collected with licence matching method and traffic volume and speed are collected from detectors. Futhermore, the method of selecting homogeneous road section is proposed considering demand and supply aspect simultaneously. This method using outlier filtering algorithm can be applied to generate the travel time forecasting model and to revise the obscured of missing data transmitting from detectors. The point and link data collected at the same time on the rational highway can be used as a basis predicting the travel time and revising the obscured data in the future.