• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation study

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The Demand Estimation Studies for the Establishment of the Second Convention Center in Busan : With the emphasis on time series analysis and Huff model (부산광역시 제2전시컨벤션센터 건립을 위한 수요예측연구 - 시계열분석과 Huff모형을 중심으로 -)

  • Oh, Chang-Ho;Ha, Seuong-Bum
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2017
  • This study suggests the estimation of the demand for the exhibition center in Busan and to valid reasons for the establishment of the 2nd Convention Center in Busan. The validity for the estimated demand is acquired by examining the studies conducted by the Ministry of Commerce Industry and Energy. The qualitative data for the phased establishment of the area is suggested in accordance to the results of the demand estimation. From previous study(Oh, 2017), Kangseo-gu, Busan has been evaluated to be the final candidate for building a new convention center in the city of Busan. The potential synergy effects of on-going developmental projects in Kangseo region is one of the influential factors for the MICE professionals' opinion in the qualitative analysis. Moreover, the region has available land to hold the facility of more than 100,000 square meter to overcome the current drawback of BEXCO, insufficient space to hold large events. Lastly, the expansion of Gimhae International Airport would bring an increased international flights that would also lead to an increase in MICE industry for the region. The virtual effect of the more than one million $m^2$-sized oconvention center is examined via Huff Model and the results suggests a logical estimated data for further demand needed for the south east regions, not just within the city of Busan.

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A Study on Proper Harbor Pilot Demand Estimation for ensuring Port Competitiveness in Korea (우리나라 항만경쟁력 확보를 위한 적정 도선사 수요산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Goun;Jeon, Yeong-Woo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.564-570
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    • 2020
  • In order to propose a realistic demand forecast for harbor pilots, define a direction for securing a supply of pilots for the betterment of national logistic services, and ensure the competitiveness of Korean ports, this study intended first to propose a new forecasting process for harbor pilot requirements through conducting analysis of determining factors affecting harbor pilot demand. Additionally, analyzing relevant previous studies allowed us to estimate the number of pilots required in the past and asses the studies limitations. Our second purpose was to propose a more stable allocation method among different pilot areas after forecasting the demand of harbor pilots until 2027 through application of the new forecasting process. From this application, the total number of pilots required was forecasted at 270, suggesting the total demand for harbor pilots will be increased by 7.57% compared with 251 pilots in 2018.

Study on the Method of Analyzing Effective Demand for Housing Using RIR

  • Youngwoo KIM;SunJu KIM
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to enhance the accuracy of effective demand analysis for publicly supported private rental housing by integrating the RIR into the traditional Mankiw-Weil (MW) model. Traditional models like the M-W model, which account for household income, housing costs, and household size, often fall short in estimating demand driven by large-scale development projects. By integrating the RIR factor, this study introduces a more accurate and practical approach to analyzing effective housing demand. Findings show that the modified M-W model incorporating RIR predicts effective demand with greater precision than traditional methods. This advancement allows developers to plan projects more efficiently and aids governments and local authorities in implementing more effective housing policies. Furthermore, the study assesses the real housing cost burden on households, elucidating their capacity to pay housing costs based on household size and income quintile. This information enables policymakers to design targeted housing support policies for specific demographic groups. Additionally, the research provides comprehensive policy recommendations tailored to various regions and housing types. Overall, this study lays a vital groundwork for the long-term analysis of the effects of economic changes and housing market trends on effective demand.

An Estimation of the Price Elasticity for Tobacoo Demand (도시가구의 인구학적 특성별 담배 수요의 가격 탄력성 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Won Nyon
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2004
  • The aim of this study is to estimate the own price elasticities for tobacco demand among Korean urban households. Using the expenditure data of smoking urban households, the quadratic almost ideal demand system is estimated. The estimated price elasticity of tobacco demand is -0.52 on the average value. The higher households income, the higher education level of households head, and the higher number of children, the tobacco demand gets more inelastic.

Estimation of Paddy Water Demand Using Land Cover Map in North Korea (토지피복도를 이용한 북한 지역의 논용수 수요량 추정)

  • Yu, Seung-Hwan;Yun, Seong-Han;Hong, Seok-Yeong;Choe, Jin-Yong
    • KCID journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.236-244
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    • 2007
  • Agricultural water demand in North Korea must be considered for the near-future investment in agricultural consolidation projects and to prepare for the future unification. Thus, the objective of this study is to estimate the agricultural water demand of paddy fieldss in North Korea. GIS data including land cover classification map, Thiessen network and administration maps of North Korea, and meteorological data were synthesized. In order to estimate paddy water demand for a 10-year return period, the FAO Blaney-Criddle method and the fixed effective rainfall ratio method were used. The results showed that 4.77 billion $\beta$(c)/year paddy water demand is required for the 512,400 ha of paddy fieldss. Paddy water demand in the three major regions - Hwanghaedo, Pyeongando, Hamgyeongnamdo - was estimated chargong 81.7 percent of total paddy water demand in North Korea.

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Estimation of Travel Demand Changes Resulted From Railway Investment (철도 투자에 따른 수요변화 추정방안 연구)

  • Eom, Jin-Ki;Moon, Dae-Seop
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.11b
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    • pp.626-637
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    • 2008
  • Although the amount of travel demand is a critical factor in a benefit-cost (B/C) analysis of railway investment, the travel demand changes especially for induced demand have not been considered. Therefore, the basic study of how to estimate travel demand changes after railway investment is worth investigating. This study reviews the methodologies for estimating diverted and induced demand generated after railway investment, and proposes appropriate approaches that will help railway planners to practically apply them in a case study. Further, the research stimulates the needs of consideration of the travel demand changes in the feasibility studies of railway planning.

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A Study on Analysis of Issues in Developing a Basic Road Transport Database and Proposals for Enhancing Its Reliability and Data Sharing (with Focus on Databases Related to Road Transport Demand Estimation) (도로부문 교통기초자료 구축사업의 문제점 분석 및 개선방안 연구 (교통수요 예측 자료를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Sang-Hyeop;O, Chang-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2009
  • In Korea, previously implemented road construction project caused a big budget waste due to overestimation of transport demand. There could be reasons for such inaccuracy of transport demand estimation, but the main reasons are: (1) low reliability of used basic road transport data and (2) inadequate sharing of data among agencies/departments. The National Transport Database and the Household Travel Database in Seoul Metropolitan Area, two representing basic road transport database, will be used to the establishment of a road construction plan that will be promoted afterwards. However, these materials have problems such as low reliability and inadequateness, too. Hence, focusing on transport demand estimation related databases, this paper will make proposals for enhancing their reliability and data sharing.

Pollution Abatement Costs and Labor Demand in Korea Manufacturing Industries (제조업의 환경오염방지지출과 노동수요)

  • Hwang, Seok-Joon;Kang, Man-Ok
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.893-921
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    • 2005
  • In this study, we try to find out the effect of private companies' environmental protection activities on the labor demand of companies in Korea manufacturing industries with empirical practice from 1992 to 2002. One of the main difficulties in this empirical work is to identify the effect of environmental protection activities on the labor demand, because the effect can be mixed with the effect of traditional production technologies on the labor demand. We follow the suggestion of Morgenstern et al. (2002) to identify the effect but which is not enough because of endogeneity between the production technology improvement and pollution reduction. So we propose a Fixed-effect Instrumental Variable estimation method as an estimation strategy. The estimation results support the positive relationship between the labor demand increase and the increase in pollution abatement costs. Therefore, we can conclude that the environmental protection activites of Korea manufacturing industries from 1992 to 2002 can help job creation without making a big burden for business activities when we consider the share of pollution abatement costs among total production costs is around 1% during that time.

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Clustering of Seoul Public Parking Lots and Demand Prediction (서울시 공영주차장 군집화 및 수요 예측)

  • Jeongjoon Hwang;Young-Hyun Shin;Hyo-Sub Sim;Dohyun Kim;Dong-Guen Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.497-514
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to estimate the demand for various public parking lots in Seoul by clustering similar demand types of parking lots and predicting the demand for new public parking lots. Methods: We examined real-time parking information data and used time series clustering analysis to cluster public parking lots with similar demand patterns. We also performed various regression analyses of parking demand based on diverse heterogeneous data that affect parking demand and proposed a parking demand prediction model. Results: As a result of cluster analysis, 68 public parking lots in Seoul were clustered into four types with similar demand patterns. We also identified key variables impacting parking demand and obtained a precise model for predicting parking demands. Conclusion: The proposed prediction model can be used to improve the efficiency and publicity of public parking lots in Seoul, and can be used as a basis for constructing new public parking lots that meet the actual demand. Future research could include studies on demand estimation models for each type of parking lot, and studies on the impact of parking lot usage patterns on demand.

Analysis of Variance of Paddy Water Demand Depending on Rice Transplanting Period and Ponding Depth (이앙시기 및 담수심 변화에 따른 논벼 수요량 변화 분석)

  • Cho, Gun-Ho;Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.3
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2021
  • This study evaluated variations in the paddy rice water demand based on the continuous changing in rice transplanting period and ponding depth at the four study paddy fields, which represent typical rice producing regions in Korea. Total 7 scenarios on rice transplanting periods were applied while minimum ponding depth of 0 and 20 mm were applied in accordance with maximum ponding depth ranging from 40 mm to 100 mm with 20 mm interval. The weather data from 2013 to 2019 was also considered. The results indicated that the highest rice water demand occurred at high temperature and low rainfall region. Increased rice transplanting periods showed higher rice water demand. The rice water demand for 51 transplanting days closely matched with the actual irrigation water supply. In case of ponding depth, the results showed that the minimum ponding depth had a proportional relationship with rice water demand, while maximum ponding depth showed the contrary results. Minimum ponding depth had a greater impact on rice water demand than the maximum ponding depth. Therefore, these results suggest that increasing the rice transplanting period, which reflects the current practice is desirable for a reliable estimation of rice water demand.