• Informatization Policy
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.89-110
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• 2014

As a travel demand management and environmental policy, the government actively promotes alternative work arrangements such as telecommuting. Against this backdrop, several empirical studies, which aim to verify the benefits of telecommuting, have been recently conducted. Little consensus, however, exists with respect to the defining, measuring, and forecasting telecommuting, although these are fundamental basis of policy evaluation and academic research. As a fundamental research for analyzing telecommuting impacts, this paper reviews various definitions regarding telecommuting, examines telecommuting penetration and level of telecommuting through review of available survey data in Korea, and forecasts future penetration. The result suggests that current home-based telecommuting penetration and level of telecommuting is approximately 0.5 to 1.1% and 0.2 to 0.5%, respectively, and is approximately 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, for the center-based telecommuting. In addition, shift-share analysis shows that home-based telecommuting penetration in the Seoul Metropolitan Area in 2020 will be 1.3%, not much different with the current value. Consequently, current telecommuting penetration is much lower than the value that is fed to us by the media (10~20%), and the future prospect is also much lower than the goal of government (30~45%); thus, we can conclude that government's goal of telecommuting promotion is difficult to meet if active encouragement policy will not be introduced.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.294-294
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• 2019

The system for predicting flood of river at Flood Control Office is made up of a rainfall-runoff model and FLDWAV model. This system is mainly operating to predict the excess of the flood watch or warning level at flood forecast points. As the demand for information of the management and operation of riverside, which is being used as a waterfront area such as parks, camping sites, and bike paths, high-level forecasts of watch and warning at certain points are required as well as production of lowland flood forecast information that is used as a waterfront within the river. In this study, a technology to produce flood forecast information in lowland areas of the river used as a waterfront was developed. Based on the results of the 1D hydraulic analysis, a model for performing spatial operations based on high resolution grid was constructed. A model was constructed for Andong district, and the inundation conditions and level were analyzed through a virtual outflow scenarios of Andong and Imha Dam.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2021

Onions are a representative produce that requires supply-demand control measures due to large fluctuations in production and price by growing season. Accurate forecasts of crop production can improve the effectiveness of such measures. However, it is challenging to obtain accurate estimates of crop productivity for onions because they are mainly grown on the open fields. The objective of this study was to perform the empirical analysis of the relationship between factors for crop growth and meteorological conditions, which can support the development of models to predict crop growth and production. The growth survey data were collected from open fields. The survey data included the weight of above ground organs as well as that of the bulbs. The estimates of meteorological data were also compiled for the given fields. Correlation analysis between these factors was performed. The random forest was also used to compare the importance of the meteorological factors by the growth stage. Our results indicated that insolation in early March had a positive effect on the growth of the above-ground. There was a negative correlation between precipitation and the growth of the above-ground at the end of March although it has been suggested that drought can deter the growth of onion. The negative effects of precipitation and daylight hours on the growth of the above-ground and under-ground were significant during the harvest period. These meteorological factors identified by growth stage can be used to develop models for onion growth and production forecast.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.391-404
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• 2021

This study developed a long-term prediction model for the potential yield of garlic based on a genetic algorithm (GA) by utilizing global climate reanalysis data. The GA is used for digging the inherent signals from global climate reanalysis data which are both directly and indirectly connected with the garlic yield potential. Our results indicate that both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts reasonably capture the inter-annual variability of crop yields with temporal correlation coefficients significant at 99% confidence level and superior categorical forecast skill with a hit rate of 93.3% for 2 × 2 and 73.3% for 3 × 3 contingency tables. Furthermore, the GA method, which considers linear and non-linear relationships between predictors and predictands, shows superiority of forecast skill in terms of both stability and skill scores compared with linear method. Since our result can predict the potential yield before the start of farming, it is expected to help establish a long-term plan to stabilize the demand and price of agricultural products and prepare countermeasures for possible problems in advance.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.66-73
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• 2023

The construction industry suffers losses due to failures in demand forecasting due to price fluctuations in construction raw materials, increased user costs due to project cost changes, and lack of forecasting system. Accordingly, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of construction raw material price forecasting. This study aims to predict the price of construction raw materials and verify applicability through the improvement of the Data Refactor technique. In order to improve the accuracy of price prediction of construction raw materials, the existing data refactor classification of low and high frequency and ARIMAX utilization method was improved to frequency-oriented and ARIMA method utilization, so that short-term (3 months in the future) six items such as construction raw materials lumber and cement were improved. ), mid-term (6 months in the future), and long-term (12 months in the future) price forecasts. As a result of the analysis, the predicted value based on the improved Data Refactor technique reduced the error and expanded the variability. Therefore, it is expected that the budget can be managed effectively by predicting the price of construction raw materials more accurately through the Data Refactor technique proposed in this study.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.102-110
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• 2011

The study aims to provide future implications for planning nature trails called Dullegil in the national park located in the city in Korea as new visiting culture for sustainability of environment and use. The telephone survey used quota sampling with 300 Seoulite ages from 20 to 69 by area, gender, and age, which was conducted to find out the perception on a Dullegil in Bukhansan National Park. The result shows more than 65% of Seoulite go climbing and aiming the mountain top as a general visitor behavior. The intention to use Dullegil was very high at 58%, which forecasts the use of Dullegil as a substitute for a trail to the intensified mountain top. However, the effectiveness of Dullegil to divert intensive use could be limited as the major group of climbers showed relatively low intention to use Dullegil as an alternative. As for the management direction, majority favors balanced management between use and conservation, even if conservation was preferred to use. Most important guiding principle for building Dullegil was conservation of environment, the planning direction should be oriented to conserve the ecological environment of Bukhansan, and to enjoy its value. Facilities for visitor safety was most needed. Most preferable time and length were 1~3 hours and 11~20km, each. This study has a limitation as the site was limited to Bukhansan and potential demand for use was analyzed with the sample of Seoulite only. To come up with the results generally applicable, more detailed future researches by the visitor segmentation, use behavior, and demand are needed.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.149-163
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• 2016

Seafarers are an essential resource in maritime industries, which provide navigation skills, vessel maneuvering skills and fishing skills in the fishery industry. They also work as a driving force in pilotage, port operation, vessel traffic service, and marine safety. Other areas in maritime services, which rely on seafarer include safety management of ships, supervisory activities, and maritime accident assessment. In these ways, Korean seafarers have contributed to the growth of Korean economy. However, there have been issues of high separation rate, shortage of supply, multi-nationality, multiplicity of culture caused by employment of foreign seafarers, and aging. The present paper finds that maritime officers and fishery officers demonstrate differences in the statistics of on-board job taking and separation: the separation rate of fishery officers is higher than that of maritime officers. The existing data and statistics by the Korea Seafarer's Welfare & Employment Center could be improved by changing its structure from time series to panel data. The Korea Seafarer's Welfare & Employment Center is the ideal institution for collecting the panel data, as it has already accumulated and published relevant statistics regarding seafarer. The basic design method of the panel data is to adopt and improve it by including the information on ratings of maritime and fishery industries, ranks in a ship, personal information, family life, and career goal. Panel data are useful in short- and long-term forecasts of supply of Korean seafarers; demand evaluation of education, training, and reeducation of the seafarers; demographical dynamic analysis on Korean seafarers; inducement policy of long-term on board job taking in harmony with man-power demands in marine industries such as pilotage service; implementation of job attractiveness policy on Korean seafarers; and employment stabilization of Korean seafarers.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.49-62
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• 2023

Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.71-84
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• 2004

There is a growing demand for agrometeorological information that end-users can use and not just interesting information. lo achieve this, each region/community needs to develop and provide localized climate and weather information for growers. Additionally, provide tools to help local users interpret climate forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in the country. Real time information should be provided for farmers, including some basic data. An ideal agrometeorological information system includes several components: an efficient data measuring and collection system; a modern telecommunication system; a standard data management processing and analysis system; and an advanced technological information dissemination system. While it is conventional wisdom that, Internet is and will play a major role in the delivery and dissemination of agrometeorological information, there are large gaps between the "information rich" and the "information poor" countries. Rural communities represent the "last mile of connectivity". For some time to come, TV broadcast, radio, phone, newspaper and fax will be used in many countries for communication. The differences in achieving this among countries arise from the human and financial resources available to implement this information and the methods of information dissemination. These differences must be considered in designing any information dissemination system. Experience shows that easy across to information more tailored to user needs would substantially increase use of climate information. Opportunities remain unexplored for applications of geographical information systems and remote sensing in agro meteorology.e sensing in agro meteorology.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-97
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• 2007

R&D into future technologies should be conducted in conjunction with technological innovation strategies that are linked to corporate survival within a framework of information and knowledge-based competitiveness. As such, future technology strategies should be ensured through open R&D organizations. The development of future technologies should not be conducted simply on the basis of future forecasts, but should take into account customer needs in advance and reflect them in the development of the future technologies or services. This research aims to select as segmentation variables the customers' attitude towards accepting future telecommunication technologies and their value orientation in their everyday life, as these factors wilt have the greatest effect on the demand for future telecommunication services and thus segment the future telecom service market. Likewise, such research seeks to segment the market from the stage of technology R&D activities and employ the results to formulate technology development strategies. Based on the customer attitude towards accepting new technologies, two groups were induced, and a hierarchical customer segmentation model was provided to conduct secondary segmentation of the two groups on the basis of their respective customer value orientation. A survey was conducted in June 2006 on 800 consumers aged 15 to 69, residing in Seoul and five other major South Korean cities, through one-on-one interviews. The samples were divided into two sub-groups according to their level of acceptance of new technology; a sub-group demonstrating a high level of technology acceptance (39.4%) and another sub-group with a comparatively lower level of technology acceptance (60.6%). These two sub-groups were further divided each into 5 smaller sub-groups (10 total smaller sub-groups) through two rounds of segmentation. The ten sub-groups were then analyzed in their detailed characteristics, including general demographic characteristics, usage patterns in existing telecom services such as mobile service, broadband internet and wireless internet and the status of ownership of a computing or information device and the desire or intention to purchase one. Through these steps, we were able to statistically prove that each of these 10 sub-groups responded to telecom services as independent markets. We found that each segmented group responds as an independent individual market. Through correspondence analysis, the target segmentation groups were positioned in such a way as to facilitate the entry of future telecommunication services into the market, as well as their diffusion and transferability.