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A Comparative Study of Prediction Models for College Student Dropout Risk Using Machine Learning: Focusing on the case of N university (머신러닝을 활용한 대학생 중도탈락 위험군의 예측모델 비교 연구 : N대학 사례를 중심으로)

  • So-Hyun Kim;Sung-Hyoun Cho
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2024
  • Purpose : This study aims to identify key factors for predicting dropout risk at the university level and to provide a foundation for policy development aimed at dropout prevention. This study explores the optimal machine learning algorithm by comparing the performance of various algorithms using data on college students' dropout risks. Methods : We collected data on factors influencing dropout risk and propensity were collected from N University. The collected data were applied to several machine learning algorithms, including random forest, decision tree, artificial neural network, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification, and Naive Bayes. The performance of these models was compared and evaluated, with a focus on predictive validity and the identification of significant dropout factors through the information gain index of machine learning. Results : The binary logistic regression analysis showed that the year of the program, department, grades, and year of entry had a statistically significant effect on the dropout risk. The performance of each machine learning algorithm showed that random forest performed the best. The results showed that the relative importance of the predictor variables was highest for department, age, grade, and residence, in the order of whether or not they matched the school location. Conclusion : Machine learning-based prediction of dropout risk focuses on the early identification of students at risk. The types and causes of dropout crises vary significantly among students. It is important to identify the types and causes of dropout crises so that appropriate actions and support can be taken to remove risk factors and increase protective factors. The relative importance of the factors affecting dropout risk found in this study will help guide educational prescriptions for preventing college student dropout.

Methodology for Variable Optimization in Injection Molding Process (사출 성형 공정에서의 변수 최적화 방법론)

  • Jung, Young Jin;Kang, Tae Ho;Park, Jeong In;Cho, Joong Yeon;Hong, Ji Soo;Kang, Sung Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.43-56
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The injection molding process, crucial for plastic shaping, encounters difficulties in sustaining product quality when replacing injection machines. Variations in machine types and outputs between different production lines or factories increase the risk of quality deterioration. In response, the study aims to develop a system that optimally adjusts conditions during the replacement of injection machines linked to molds. Methods: Utilizing a dataset of 12 injection process variables and 52 corresponding sensor variables, a predictive model is crafted using Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost. Model evaluation is conducted using an 80% training data and a 20% test data split. The dependent variable, classified into five characteristics based on temperature and pressure, guides the prediction model. Bayesian optimization, integrated into the selected model, determines optimal values for process variables during the replacement of injection machines. The iterative convergence of sensor prediction values to the optimum range is visually confirmed, aligning them with the target range. Experimental results validate the proposed approach. Results: Post-experiment analysis indicates the superiority of the XGBoost model across all five characteristics, achieving a combined high performance of 0.81 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.77. The study introduces a method for optimizing initial conditions in the injection process during machine replacement, utilizing Bayesian optimization. This streamlined approach reduces both time and costs, thereby enhancing process efficiency. Conclusion: This research contributes practical insights to the optimization literature, offering valuable guidance for industries seeking streamlined and cost-effective methods for machine replacement in injection molding.

A Hybrid Multi-Level Feature Selection Framework for prediction of Chronic Disease

  • G.S. Raghavendra;Shanthi Mahesh;M.V.P. Chandrasekhara Rao
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.101-106
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    • 2023
  • Chronic illnesses are among the most common serious problems affecting human health. Early diagnosis of chronic diseases can assist to avoid or mitigate their consequences, potentially decreasing mortality rates. Using machine learning algorithms to identify risk factors is an exciting strategy. The issue with existing feature selection approaches is that each method provides a distinct set of properties that affect model correctness, and present methods cannot perform well on huge multidimensional datasets. We would like to introduce a novel model that contains a feature selection approach that selects optimal characteristics from big multidimensional data sets to provide reliable predictions of chronic illnesses without sacrificing data uniqueness.[1] To ensure the success of our proposed model, we employed balanced classes by employing hybrid balanced class sampling methods on the original dataset, as well as methods for data pre-processing and data transformation, to provide credible data for the training model. We ran and assessed our model on datasets with binary and multivalued classifications. We have used multiple datasets (Parkinson, arrythmia, breast cancer, kidney, diabetes). Suitable features are selected by using the Hybrid feature model consists of Lassocv, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting,Adaboost, stochastic gradient descent and done voting of attributes which are common output from these methods.Accuracy of original dataset before applying framework is recorded and evaluated against reduced data set of attributes accuracy. The results are shown separately to provide comparisons. Based on the result analysis, we can conclude that our proposed model produced the highest accuracy on multi valued class datasets than on binary class attributes.[1]

Development of AI Convergence Education Model Based on Machine Learning for Data Literacy (데이터 리터러시를 위한 머신러닝 기반 AI 융합 수업 모형 개발)

  • Sang-Woo Kang;Yoo-Jin Lee;Hyo-Jeong Lim;Won-Keun Choi
    • Advanced Industrial SCIence
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a machine learning-based AI convergence class model and class design principles that can foster data literacy in high school students, and to develop detailed guidelines accordingly. We developed a machine learning-based teaching model, design principles, and detailed guidelines through research on prior literature, and applied them to 15 students at a specialized high school in Seoul. As a result of the study, students' data literacy improved statistically significantly (p<.001), so we confirmed that the model of this study has a positive effect on improving learners' data literacy, and it is expected that it will lead to related research in the future.

Protecting Accounting Information Systems using Machine Learning Based Intrusion Detection

  • Biswajit Panja
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2024
  • In general network-based intrusion detection system is designed to detect malicious behavior directed at a network or its resources. The key goal of this paper is to look at network data and identify whether it is normal traffic data or anomaly traffic data specifically for accounting information systems. In today's world, there are a variety of principles for detecting various forms of network-based intrusion. In this paper, we are using supervised machine learning techniques. Classification models are used to train and validate data. Using these algorithms we are training the system using a training dataset then we use this trained system to detect intrusion from the testing dataset. In our proposed method, we will detect whether the network data is normal or an anomaly. Using this method we can avoid unauthorized activity on the network and systems under that network. The Decision Tree and K-Nearest Neighbor are applied to the proposed model to classify abnormal to normal behaviors of network traffic data. In addition to that, Logistic Regression Classifier and Support Vector Classification algorithms are used in our model to support proposed concepts. Furthermore, a feature selection method is used to collect valuable information from the dataset to enhance the efficiency of the proposed approach. Random Forest machine learning algorithm is used, which assists the system to identify crucial aspects and focus on them rather than all the features them. The experimental findings revealed that the suggested method for network intrusion detection has a neglected false alarm rate, with the accuracy of the result expected to be between 95% and 100%. As a result of the high precision rate, this concept can be used to detect network data intrusion and prevent vulnerabilities on the network.

Hybrid machine learning with HHO method for estimating ultimate shear strength of both rectangular and circular RC columns

  • Quang-Viet Vu;Van-Thanh Pham;Dai-Nhan Le;Zhengyi Kong;George Papazafeiropoulos;Viet-Ngoc Pham
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.145-163
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    • 2024
  • This paper presents six novel hybrid machine learning (ML) models that combine support vector machines (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and categorical gradient boosting (CGB) with the Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO) algorithm. These models, namely HHO-SVM, HHO-DT, HHO-RF, HHO-GB, HHO-XGB, and HHO-CGB, are designed to predict the ultimate strength of both rectangular and circular reinforced concrete (RC) columns. The prediction models are established using a comprehensive database consisting of 325 experimental data for rectangular columns and 172 experimental data for circular columns. The ML model hyperparameters are optimized through a combination of cross-validation technique and the HHO. The performance of the hybrid ML models is evaluated and compared using various metrics, ultimately identifying the HHO-CGB model as the top-performing model for predicting the ultimate shear strength of both rectangular and circular RC columns. The mean R-value and mean a20-index are relatively high, reaching 0.991 and 0.959, respectively, while the mean absolute error and root mean square error are low (10.302 kN and 27.954 kN, respectively). Another comparison is conducted with four existing formulas to further validate the efficiency of the proposed HHO-CGB model. The Shapely Additive Explanations method is applied to analyze the contribution of each variable to the output within the HHO-CGB model, providing insights into the local and global influence of variables. The analysis reveals that the depth of the column, length of the column, and axial loading exert the most significant influence on the ultimate shear strength of RC columns. A user-friendly graphical interface tool is then developed based on the HHO-CGB to facilitate practical and cost-effective usage.

The Application of Customer Relationship Management for the Effective Prenatal Care (효과적인 산전관리를 위한 고객관계관리(CRM)의 도입)

  • Shin, Sook;Paik, Soo-Kyung;Kang, Sung-Hong;Kim, Yu-Mi
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.93-114
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    • 2005
  • The prenatal care is the preventive medical service to help the pregnant mother deliver the healthy baby. It's regular examines give some chances to check-up the healthy conditions. This thesis concentrates on the CRM system to support an effective prenatal care system and prove the effectiveness of it. As CRM is the adapted management related to the customer's own information, it is important to develop the CRM model classified by the patients characteristics. A general hospital in Busan operated the CRM system to carry out the effective prenatal care and there is an analysis to ensure the effectiveness of CRM system for the pregnant women in our maternity ward. The results can be summarized as follows: 1) According to the comparisons with the CRM system, we can conclude the system is desirable. (1) Maternal Age : In the age distribution, the prenatal visit frequency, triple marker freqency, oral GTT and targeted ultrasonography in the experimental group in 30 to 34 years old is higher on the whole. For over 35 years old group, the higher frequency comes out in the oral GTT and targeted ultrasonography and for 25 to 29 years old group the different figure shows just in the targeted ultrasonography. (2) Area of residence: There is a clear difference in all the items in Busan and near area but no sign of difference in prenatal visits and oral GTT in other residencial area. Especially in the targeted ultrasonography the higher figure shows in the experimental group located in the both areas. The targeted ultrasonography is known as the specific examination which should be examined by the specialists, on the contrary the other examinations can be operated in the small clinic. So the public information and seminars related with ultrasonography increases the check-up frequency. The clinic requests some ultrasonographical examinations to the specialists in general hospital. (3) Parity: The clear difference shows that the CRM system causes the prenatal visit frequency to become higher in experimental group. The figure is 9.7 times and 8.6 times each. This is opposite that the past study said multiparity reduced the average prenatal visits. But the result of CRM is considered as the method to help the multiparity understand the importance of the prenatal care. (4) Obstetrical history: In the experimental group of the spontaneous delivery group, the figure is higher in the prenatal visit frequency, triple marker, oral GTT and targeted ultrasonography but the Caesarean section delivery group has higher figure in targeted ultrasonography. (5) In the first check-up, the rate of targeted ultrasonography in under 16 week pregnancy, in the 16 week pregnancy to 32 week pregnancy and the over 32 week pregnancy in the experimental group is upper than the compared one. For the oral GTT, there is a difference in under 16 week pregnancy but no difference in prenatal visits and triple marker. 2) The analysis of characteristics of prenatal care through the decision tree resulted in the fact that the most important variable is the residential area. After the delivery frequency is following, the obstetrical history and maternal age are in order. It is the same result in the triple marker and oral GTT. Consequently it is the same order of important variables in CRM system. The effectiveness of CRM system is proved in this study. The CRM system is a marketing method to control and lead the customers through the segmentation of customer data. It increases the new customer aquisition, maintenance of loyal customers, augmentation of customers value, activation of potential customers and creation of life time customers. So eventually it can enlarge the customers value. The medical institution should make efforts to establish the data base enforced by the customer's information on the underlying ordinary data system to carry out the CRM system effectively. In addition, it should develop the a variety of marketing strategy in order to set up one to one marketing satisfying the needs of individual patients.

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Building battery deterioration prediction model using real field data (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 납축전지 열화 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.243-264
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    • 2018
  • Although the worldwide battery market is recently spurring the development of lithium secondary battery, lead acid batteries (rechargeable batteries) which have good-performance and can be reused are consumed in a wide range of industry fields. However, lead-acid batteries have a serious problem in that deterioration of a battery makes progress quickly in the presence of that degradation of only one cell among several cells which is packed in a battery begins. To overcome this problem, previous researches have attempted to identify the mechanism of deterioration of a battery in many ways. However, most of previous researches have used data obtained in a laboratory to analyze the mechanism of deterioration of a battery but not used data obtained in a real world. The usage of real data can increase the feasibility and the applicability of the findings of a research. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model which predicts the battery deterioration using data obtained in real world. To this end, we collected data which presents change of battery state by attaching sensors enabling to monitor the battery condition in real time to dozens of golf carts operated in the real golf field. As a result, total 16,883 samples were obtained. And then, we developed a model which predicts a precursor phenomenon representing deterioration of a battery by analyzing the data collected from the sensors using machine learning techniques. As initial independent variables, we used 1) inbound time of a cart, 2) outbound time of a cart, 3) duration(from outbound time to charge time), 4) charge amount, 5) used amount, 6) charge efficiency, 7) lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, 8) lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 9) highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, 10) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, 11) voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, 12) used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation, 13) used amount of battery during operation(Max-Min), 14) duration of battery use, and 15) highest current during operation. Since the values of the independent variables, lowest temperature of battery cell 1 to 6, lowest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, highest voltage of battery cell 1 to 6, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the beginning of operation, voltage of battery cell 1 to 6 at the end of charge, and used amount of battery cell 1 to 6 during operation are similar to that of each battery cell, we conducted principal component analysis using verimax orthogonal rotation in order to mitigate the multiple collinearity problem. According to the results, we made new variables by averaging the values of independent variables clustered together, and used them as final independent variables instead of origin variables, thereby reducing the dimension. We used decision tree, logistic regression, Bayesian network as algorithms for building prediction models. And also, we built prediction models using the bagging of each of them, the boosting of each of them, and RandomForest. Experimental results show that the prediction model using the bagging of decision tree yields the best accuracy of 89.3923%. This study has some limitations in that the additional variables which affect the deterioration of battery such as weather (temperature, humidity) and driving habits, did not considered, therefore, we would like to consider the them in the future research. However, the battery deterioration prediction model proposed in the present study is expected to enable effective and efficient management of battery used in the real filed by dramatically and to reduce the cost caused by not detecting battery deterioration accordingly.

Prediction of Correct Answer Rate and Identification of Significant Factors for CSAT English Test Based on Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 대학수학능력시험 영어영역 정답률 예측 및 주요 요인 분석)

  • Park, Hee Jin;Jang, Kyoung Ye;Lee, Youn Ho;Kim, Woo Je;Kang, Pil Sung
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.4 no.11
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    • pp.509-520
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    • 2015
  • College Scholastic Ability Test(CSAT) is a primary test to evaluate the study achievement of high-school students and used by most universities for admission decision in South Korea. Because its level of difficulty is a significant issue to both students and universities, the government makes a huge effort to have a consistent difficulty level every year. However, the actual levels of difficulty have significantly fluctuated, which causes many problems with university admission. In this paper, we build two types of data-driven prediction models to predict correct answer rate and to identify significant factors for CSAT English test through accumulated test data of CSAT, unlike traditional methods depending on experts' judgments. Initially, we derive candidate question-specific factors that can influence the correct answer rate, such as the position, EBS-relation, readability, from the annual CSAT practices and CSAT for 10 years. In addition, we drive context-specific factors by employing topic modeling which identify the underlying topics over the text. Then, the correct answer rate is predicted by multiple linear regression and level of difficulty is predicted by classification tree. The experimental results show that 90% of accuracy can be achieved by the level of difficulty (difficult/easy) classification model, whereas the error rate for correct answer rate is below 16%. Points and problem category are found to be critical to predict the correct answer rate. In addition, the correct answer rate is also influenced by some of the topics discovered by topic modeling. Based on our study, it will be possible to predict the range of expected correct answer rate for both question-level and entire test-level, which will help CSAT examiners to control the level of difficulties.

Anomaly Detection for User Action with Generative Adversarial Networks (적대적 생성 모델을 활용한 사용자 행위 이상 탐지 방법)

  • Choi, Nam woong;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2019
  • At one time, the anomaly detection sector dominated the method of determining whether there was an abnormality based on the statistics derived from specific data. This methodology was possible because the dimension of the data was simple in the past, so the classical statistical method could work effectively. However, as the characteristics of data have changed complexly in the era of big data, it has become more difficult to accurately analyze and predict the data that occurs throughout the industry in the conventional way. Therefore, SVM and Decision Tree based supervised learning algorithms were used. However, there is peculiarity that supervised learning based model can only accurately predict the test data, when the number of classes is equal to the number of normal classes and most of the data generated in the industry has unbalanced data class. Therefore, the predicted results are not always valid when supervised learning model is applied. In order to overcome these drawbacks, many studies now use the unsupervised learning-based model that is not influenced by class distribution, such as autoencoder or generative adversarial networks. In this paper, we propose a method to detect anomalies using generative adversarial networks. AnoGAN, introduced in the study of Thomas et al (2017), is a classification model that performs abnormal detection of medical images. It was composed of a Convolution Neural Net and was used in the field of detection. On the other hand, sequencing data abnormality detection using generative adversarial network is a lack of research papers compared to image data. Of course, in Li et al (2018), a study by Li et al (LSTM), a type of recurrent neural network, has proposed a model to classify the abnormities of numerical sequence data, but it has not been used for categorical sequence data, as well as feature matching method applied by salans et al.(2016). So it suggests that there are a number of studies to be tried on in the ideal classification of sequence data through a generative adversarial Network. In order to learn the sequence data, the structure of the generative adversarial networks is composed of LSTM, and the 2 stacked-LSTM of the generator is composed of 32-dim hidden unit layers and 64-dim hidden unit layers. The LSTM of the discriminator consists of 64-dim hidden unit layer were used. In the process of deriving abnormal scores from existing paper of Anomaly Detection for Sequence data, entropy values of probability of actual data are used in the process of deriving abnormal scores. but in this paper, as mentioned earlier, abnormal scores have been derived by using feature matching techniques. In addition, the process of optimizing latent variables was designed with LSTM to improve model performance. The modified form of generative adversarial model was more accurate in all experiments than the autoencoder in terms of precision and was approximately 7% higher in accuracy. In terms of Robustness, Generative adversarial networks also performed better than autoencoder. Because generative adversarial networks can learn data distribution from real categorical sequence data, Unaffected by a single normal data. But autoencoder is not. Result of Robustness test showed that he accuracy of the autocoder was 92%, the accuracy of the hostile neural network was 96%, and in terms of sensitivity, the autocoder was 40% and the hostile neural network was 51%. In this paper, experiments have also been conducted to show how much performance changes due to differences in the optimization structure of potential variables. As a result, the level of 1% was improved in terms of sensitivity. These results suggest that it presented a new perspective on optimizing latent variable that were relatively insignificant.