• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision-Making Models

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How does the Operational Value Affect the Determination of Initial Fees in Franchise Restaurant Businesses? Based on a Value-Based Pricing Strategy (프랜차이즈 외식기업의 운영적 가치가 초기가맹비용결정에 미치는 영향: 가치기반 가격결정전략을 기반으로)

  • Seung Hyun KIM;Kyung A SUN
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.35-50
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to uncover the mechanism of how initial fees are determined in the restaurant franchise business. Since the initial fees can be considered as a price of utilizing business models and operational knowledge of a certain franchise brand, it is critical to understand the fee decision-making process based on the strategic pricing theories. Therefore, this study investigates the influence of operational value on the determination of initial franchise fees grounded on a value-based pricing strategy. The Operational value is specifically categorized into profitability, growth, and stability of the franchise system. Research design, data, and methodology: The data used were collected through franchise disclosure documents and brand equity index provided by Korea Management Association Consulting. Data from 44 franchise restaurants during 2018 to 2021 are included in the sample. The panel dataset was analyzed by using generalized least squares estimation with R-Studio. Results: Profitability and stability positively influence initial franchise fees. However, growth did not influence initial franchise fees. Conclusions: The results of the study demonstrate that the operational value plays a critical role in determining the franchise fees. Specifically, franchisees recognize how much revenue a franchise system generates for them (i.e., profitability) and how stable the entire system is for operating business (i.e., stability) when they make purchasing decisions for franchise. The findings extend the pricing literature by applying pricing theories in the franchise fee context. Also, the study contributes to franchising and restaurant management literature by providing knowledge of how franchise fees are determined.

Blockchain and AI-based big data processing techniques for sustainable agricultural environments (지속가능한 농업 환경을 위한 블록체인과 AI 기반 빅 데이터 처리 기법)

  • Yoon-Su Jeong
    • Advanced Industrial SCIence
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2024
  • Recently, as the ICT field has been used in various environments, it has become possible to analyze pests by crops, use robots when harvesting crops, and predict by big data by utilizing ICT technologies in a sustainable agricultural environment. However, in a sustainable agricultural environment, efforts to solve resource depletion, agricultural population decline, poverty increase, and environmental destruction are constantly being demanded. This paper proposes an artificial intelligence-based big data processing analysis method to reduce the production cost and increase the efficiency of crops based on a sustainable agricultural environment. The proposed technique strengthens the security and reliability of data by processing big data of crops combined with AI, and enables better decision-making and business value extraction. It can lead to innovative changes in various industries and fields and promote the development of data-oriented business models. During the experiment, the proposed technique gave an accurate answer to only a small amount of data, and at a farm site where it is difficult to tag the correct answer one by one, the performance similar to that of learning with a large amount of correct answer data (with an error rate within 0.05) was found.

A Real-Time Stock Market Prediction Using Knowledge Accumulation (지식 누적을 이용한 실시간 주식시장 예측)

  • Kim, Jin-Hwa;Hong, Kwang-Hun;Min, Jin-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.109-130
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    • 2011
  • One of the major problems in the area of data mining is the size of the data, as most data set has huge volume these days. Streams of data are normally accumulated into data storages or databases. Transactions in internet, mobile devices and ubiquitous environment produce streams of data continuously. Some data set are just buried un-used inside huge data storage due to its huge size. Some data set is quickly lost as soon as it is created as it is not saved due to many reasons. How to use this large size data and to use data on stream efficiently are challenging questions in the study of data mining. Stream data is a data set that is accumulated to the data storage from a data source continuously. The size of this data set, in many cases, becomes increasingly large over time. To mine information from this massive data, it takes too many resources such as storage, money and time. These unique characteristics of the stream data make it difficult and expensive to store all the stream data sets accumulated over time. Otherwise, if one uses only recent or partial of data to mine information or pattern, there can be losses of valuable information, which can be useful. To avoid these problems, this study suggests a method efficiently accumulates information or patterns in the form of rule set over time. A rule set is mined from a data set in stream and this rule set is accumulated into a master rule set storage, which is also a model for real-time decision making. One of the main advantages of this method is that it takes much smaller storage space compared to the traditional method, which saves the whole data set. Another advantage of using this method is that the accumulated rule set is used as a prediction model. Prompt response to the request from users is possible anytime as the rule set is ready anytime to be used to make decisions. This makes real-time decision making possible, which is the greatest advantage of this method. Based on theories of ensemble approaches, combination of many different models can produce better prediction model in performance. The consolidated rule set actually covers all the data set while the traditional sampling approach only covers part of the whole data set. This study uses a stock market data that has a heterogeneous data set as the characteristic of data varies over time. The indexes in stock market data can fluctuate in different situations whenever there is an event influencing the stock market index. Therefore the variance of the values in each variable is large compared to that of the homogeneous data set. Prediction with heterogeneous data set is naturally much more difficult, compared to that of homogeneous data set as it is more difficult to predict in unpredictable situation. This study tests two general mining approaches and compare prediction performances of these two suggested methods with the method we suggest in this study. The first approach is inducing a rule set from the recent data set to predict new data set. The seocnd one is inducing a rule set from all the data which have been accumulated from the beginning every time one has to predict new data set. We found neither of these two is as good as the method of accumulated rule set in its performance. Furthermore, the study shows experiments with different prediction models. The first approach is building a prediction model only with more important rule sets and the second approach is the method using all the rule sets by assigning weights on the rules based on their performance. The second approach shows better performance compared to the first one. The experiments also show that the suggested method in this study can be an efficient approach for mining information and pattern with stream data. This method has a limitation of bounding its application to stock market data. More dynamic real-time steam data set is desirable for the application of this method. There is also another problem in this study. When the number of rules is increasing over time, it has to manage special rules such as redundant rules or conflicting rules efficiently.

Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining (데이터 마이닝과 텍스트 마이닝의 통합적 접근을 통한 병사 사고예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Seungjin;Kim, Suhwan;Shin, Kyungshik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.

Development of an Economic Evaluation model for Coating System Based on Environmental Conditions of Power Generation Structure (발전구조물의 환경조건을 반영한 도장계 선정 경제성 평가 모델 개발)

  • Kim, In Tae;Lee, Su Young;An, Jin Hee;Kim, Chang Hak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2020
  • Currently, life-cycle cost analysis methods are introduced to maintain large infrastructure facilities in Korea. However, there are not many cases in which maintenance models are applied that reflect conditions such as the location of a facility and its surroundings. In order to establish an appropriate maintenance strategy, a cost prediction, deterioration model, and a decision model reflecting uncertainty should be established. In this study, an economic analysis model was developed for long-term cost planning and management based on user decisions based on maintenance methods and judgment criteria for painting specifications applied to power generation structures. The performance of the paintwork was assessed through the paint deterioration test for the application of the economic analysis model, and the results of the economic analysis according to the applied paint specifications (Urethan, polysiloxane, fluorine) were verified by applying the proposed economic analysis model. In this study, it is believed that the selection of the repair cycle and evaluation methods applied with the development model rather than the performance of the painting can be expected to be used as basic data for the maintenance cycle, even if it is not limited to the painting.

Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy using Simulated Annealing-based Random Fores (시뮬레이티드 어니일링 기반의 랜덤 포레스트를 이용한 기업부도예측)

  • Park, Hoyeon;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.155-170
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    • 2018
  • Predicting a company's financial bankruptcy is traditionally one of the most crucial forecasting problems in business analytics. In previous studies, prediction models have been proposed by applying or combining statistical and machine learning-based techniques. In this paper, we propose a novel intelligent prediction model based on the simulated annealing which is one of the well-known optimization techniques. The simulated annealing is known to have comparable optimization performance to the genetic algorithms. Nevertheless, since there has been little research on the prediction and classification of business decision-making problems using the simulated annealing, it is meaningful to confirm the usefulness of the proposed model in business analytics. In this study, we use the combined model of simulated annealing and machine learning to select the input features of the bankruptcy prediction model. Typical types of combining optimization and machine learning techniques are feature selection, feature weighting, and instance selection. This study proposes a combining model for feature selection, which has been studied the most. In order to confirm the superiority of the proposed model in this study, we apply the real-world financial data of the Korean companies and analyze the results. The results show that the predictive accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of the naïve model. Notably, the performance is significantly improved as compared with the traditional decision tree, random forests, artificial neural network, SVM, and logistic regression analysis.

Multi-objective Optimization Model for Tower Crane Layout Planning in Modular Construction (모듈러 건축의 타워크레인 배치계획 수립을 위한 다중 최적화 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Sungboo;Park, Moonseo;Jung, Minhyuk;Hyun, Hosang;Ahn, Suho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.36-46
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    • 2021
  • With an increasing trend toward high-rise modular construction, the simultaneous use of tower cranes at a modular construction site has recently been observed. Tower crane layout planning (TCLP) has a significant effect on cost, duration, safety and productivity of a project. In a modular construction project, particularly, poor decision about the layout of tower cranes is likely to have negative effects like additional employment of cranes and redesign, which will lead to additional costs and possible delays. It is, therefore, crucial to conduct thorough inspection of field conditions, lifting materials, tower crane capacity to make decisions on the layout of tower cranes. However, several challenges exist in planning for a multi-crane construction site in terms of safety and collaboration, which makes planning with experience and intuition complicated. This paper suggests a multi-objective optimization model for selection of the number of tower cranes, their models and locations, which minimizes cost and conflict. The proposed model contributes to the body of knowledge by showing the feasibility of using multi-objective optimization for TCLP decision-making process with consideration of trade-offs between cost and conflict.

Doubly-robust Q-estimation in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates (고차원 관측자료에서의 Q-학습 모형에 대한 이중강건성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyobeen;Kim, Yeji;Cho, Hyungjun;Choi, Sangbum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.309-327
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    • 2021
  • Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are decision-making rules designed to provide personalized treatment to individuals in multi-stage randomized trials. Unlike classical methods, in which all individuals are prescribed the same type of treatment, DTRs prescribe patient-tailored treatments which take into account individual characteristics that may change over time. The Q-learning method, one of regression-based algorithms to figure out optimal treatment rules, becomes more popular as it can be easily implemented. However, the performance of the Q-learning algorithm heavily relies on the correct specification of the Q-function for response, especially in observational studies. In this article, we examine a number of double-robust weighted least-squares estimating methods for Q-learning in high-dimensional settings, where treatment models for propensity score and penalization for sparse estimation are also investigated. We further consider flexible ensemble machine learning methods for the treatment model to achieve double-robustness, so that optimal decision rule can be correctly estimated as long as at least one of the outcome model or treatment model is correct. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed methods work well with practical sample sizes. The practical utility of the proposed methods is proven with real data example.

The Detection of Online Manipulated Reviews Using Machine Learning and GPT-3 (기계학습과 GPT3를 시용한 조작된 리뷰의 탐지)

  • Chernyaeva, Olga;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.347-364
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    • 2022
  • Fraudulent companies or sellers strategically manipulate reviews to influence customers' purchase decisions; therefore, the reliability of reviews has become crucial for customer decision-making. Since customers increasingly rely on online reviews to search for more detailed information about products or services before purchasing, many researchers focus on detecting manipulated reviews. However, the main problem in detecting manipulated reviews is the difficulties with obtaining data with manipulated reviews to utilize machine learning techniques with sufficient data. Also, the number of manipulated reviews is insufficient compared with the number of non-manipulated reviews, so the class imbalance problem occurs. The class with fewer examples is under-represented and can hamper a model's accuracy, so machine learning methods suffer from the class imbalance problem and solving the class imbalance problem is important to build an accurate model for detecting manipulated reviews. Thus, we propose an OpenAI-based reviews generation model to solve the manipulated reviews imbalance problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of manipulated reviews detection. In this research, we applied the novel autoregressive language model - GPT-3 to generate reviews based on manipulated reviews. Moreover, we found that applying GPT-3 model for oversampling manipulated reviews can recover a satisfactory portion of performance losses and shows better performance in classification (logit, decision tree, neural networks) than traditional oversampling models such as random oversampling and SMOTE.

Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.