• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision Error

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Classification Tree Analysis to Assess Contributing Factors Influencing Biosecurity Level on Farrow-to-Finish Pig Farms in Korea (분류 트리 기법을 이용한 국내 일괄사육 양돈장의 차단방역 수준에 영향을 미치는 기여 요인 평가)

  • Kim, Kyu-Wook;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study was to determine potential contributing factors associated with biosecurity level of farrow-to-finish pig farms and to develop a classification tree model to explore how these factors related to each other based on prediction model. To this end, the author analyzed data (n = 193) extracted from a cross-sectional study of 344 farrow-to-finish farms which was conducted between March and September 2014 aimed to explore swine disease status at farm level. Standardized questionnaires with information about basic demographical data and management practices were collected in each farm by on-site visit of trained veterinarians. For the classification of the data sets regarding biosecurity level as a dependent variable and predictor variables, Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) algorithm was applied for modeling classification tree. The statistics of misclassification risk was used to evaluate the fitness of the model in terms of prediction results. Categorical multivariate input data (40 variables) was used to construct a classification tree, and the target variable was biosecurity level dichotomized into low versus high. In general, the level of biosecurity was lower in the majority of farms studied, mainly due to the limited implementation of on-farm basic biosecurity measures aimed at controlling the potential introduction and transmission of swine diseases. The CHAID model illustrated the relative importance of significant predictors in explaining the level of biosecurity; maintenance of medical records of treatment and vaccination, use of dedicated clothing to enter the farm, installing fence surrounding the farm perimeter, and periodic monitoring of the herd using written biosecurity plan in place. The misclassification risk estimate of the prediction model was 0.145 with the standard error of 0.025, indicating that 85.5% of the cases could be classified correctly by using the decision rule based on the current tree. Although CHAID approach could provide detailed information and insight about interactions among factors associated with biosecurity level, further evaluation of potential bias intervened in the course of data collection should be included in future studies. In addition, there is still need to validate findings through the external dataset with larger sample size to improve the external validity of the current model.

Automated Construction Progress Management Using Computer Vision-based CNN Model and BIM (이미지 기반 기계 학습과 BIM을 활용한 자동화된 시공 진도 관리 - 합성곱 신경망 모델(CNN)과 실내측위기술, 4D BIM을 기반으로 -)

  • Rho, Juhee;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2020
  • A daily progress monitoring and further schedule management of a construction project have a significant impact on the construction manager's decision making in schedule change and controlling field operation. However, a current site monitoring method highly relies on the manually recorded daily-log book by the person in charge of the work. For this reason, it is difficult to take a detached view and sometimes human error such as omission of contents may occur. In order to resolve these problems, previous researches have developed automated site monitoring method with the object recognition-based visualization or BIM data creation. Despite of the research results along with the related technology development, there are limitations in application targeting the practical construction projects due to the constraints in the experimental methods that assume the fixed equipment at a specific location. To overcome these limitations, some smart devices carried by the field workers can be employed as a medium for data creation. Specifically, the extracted information from the site picture by object recognition technology of CNN model, and positional information by GIPS are applied to update 4D BIM data. A standard CNN model is developed and BIM data modification experiments are conducted with the collected data to validate the research suggestion. Based on the experimental results, it is confirmed that the methods and performance are applicable to the construction site management and further it is expected to contribute speedy and precise data creation with the application of automated progress monitoring methods.

Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics in Gokgyochun Basin Using a Runoff Model (유출모형을 이용한 곡교천 유역의 강우-유출 특성 분석)

  • Hwan, Byungl-Ki;Cho, Yong-Soo;Yang, Seung-Bin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.404-411
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the HEC-HMS was applied to determine rainfall-runoff processes for the Gokgyuchun basin. Several sub-basins have large-scale reservoirs for agricultural needs and they store large amounts of initial runoff. Three infiltration methods were implemented to reflect the effect of initial loss by reservoirs: 'SCS-CN'(Scheme I), 'SCS-CN' with simple surface method(Scheme II), and 'Initial and Constant rate'(Scheme III). Modeling processes include incorporating three different methods for loss due to infiltration, Clark's UH model for transformation, exponential recession model for baseflow, and Muskingum model for channel routing. The parameters were calibrated using an optimization technique with trial and error method. Performance measures, such as NSE, RAR, and PBIAS, were adopted to aid in the calibration processes. The model performance for those methods was evaluated at Gangcheong station, which is the outlet of study site. Good accuracy in predicting runoff volume and peak flow, and peak time was obtained using the Scheme II and III, considering the initial loss, whereas Scheme I showed low reliability for storms. Scheme III did not show good matches between observed and simulated values for storms with multi peaks. Conclusively, Scheme II provided better results for both single and multi-peak storms. The results of this study can provide a useful tool for decision makers to determine master plans for regional flood control management.

Risk Analysis and Selection of the Main Factors in Fishing Vessel Accidents Through a Risk Matrix (위험도 매트릭스를 이용한 어선의 사고 위험도 분석과 사고 주요 요인 도출에 관한 연구)

  • WON, Yoo-Kyung;KIM, Dong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2019
  • Though, fishing vessel accidents account for 70 % of all maritime accidents in Korean waters, most research has focused on identifying causes and developing mitigation policies in an attempt to reduce this rate. However, predicting and evaluating accident risk needs to be done before the implementation of such reduction measures. For this reasons, we havve performed a risk analysis to calculate the risk of accidents and propose a risk criteria matrix with 4 quadrants, within one of which forecasted risk is plotted for the relative comparison of risks. For this research, we considered 9 types of fishing vessel accidents as reported by Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST). Given that no risk evaluation criteria have been established in Korea, we established a two-dimensional frequency-consequence grid consisting of four quadrants into which paired frequency and consequence for each type of accident are presented. With the simple structure of the evaluation model, one can easily verify the effect of frequency and consequence on the resulting risk within each quadrant. Consequently, these risk evaluation results will help a decision maker employ more realistic risk mitigation measures for accident types situated in different quadrants. As an application of the risk evaluation matrix, accident types were further analyzed using accident causes including human error (factor) and appropriate risk reduction options may be established by comparing the relative frequency and consequence of each accident cause.

A Performance Comparison of CCA and RMMA Algorithm for Blind Adaptive Equalization (블라인드 적응 등화를 위한 CCA와 RMMA 알고리즘의 성능 비교)

  • Lim, Seung-Gag
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2019
  • This paper related with the performance comparison of CCA and RMMA blind adaptive equalization in order to reduce the intersymbol interference which is occurred in channel when transmitting the 16-QAM signal, high spectrum efficiencies of nonconstant modulus characteristic. The CCA possible to improve the misadustment and initial convergence by compacting the every signal constellation of 16 by using the sliced symbol of the decision device output, namely statistical symbol, but incresing the computational cost. The RMMA possible to minimize the fast convergence speed and misadjustment and channel tracking capability without increasing the computational cost by obtain the error signal after transform to 4 constant modulus signal based on the region of signal constellation located. In this paper, these algorithm were implemented in the same channel, and the blind adaptive equalization performance were compared using the equalizer output signal constellation, residual isi, MSE, SER. As a result of simulation, the RMMA has better performance in output signal constellation, residual isi and MSE compared to the CCA, but has slow convergence speed about 1.3 times. And the SER performance presenting the robustness to the noise signal, the CCA has more beeter in less SNR, but the RMMA has better in greater than 6dB in SNR.

AutoML and Artificial Neural Network Modeling of Process Dynamics of LNG Regasification Using Seawater (해수 이용 LNG 재기화 공정의 딥러닝과 AutoML을 이용한 동적모델링)

  • Shin, Yongbeom;Yoo, Sangwoo;Kwak, Dongho;Lee, Nagyeong;Shin, Dongil
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.59 no.2
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    • pp.209-218
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    • 2021
  • First principle-based modeling studies have been performed to improve the heat exchange efficiency of ORV and optimize operation, but the heat transfer coefficient of ORV is an irregular system according to time and location, and it undergoes a complex modeling process. In this study, FNN, LSTM, and AutoML-based modeling were performed to confirm the effectiveness of data-based modeling for complex systems. The prediction accuracy indicated high performance in the order of LSTM > AutoML > FNN in MSE. The performance of AutoML, an automatic design method for machine learning models, was superior to developed FNN, and the total time required for model development was 1/15 compared to LSTM, showing the possibility of using AutoML. The prediction of NG and seawater discharged temperatures using LSTM and AutoML showed an error of less than 0.5K. Using the predictive model, real-time optimization of the amount of LNG vaporized that can be processed using ORV in winter is performed, confirming that up to 23.5% of LNG can be additionally processed, and an ORV optimal operation guideline based on the developed dynamic prediction model was presented.

Comparison of the Weather Station Networks Used for the Estimation of the Cultivar Parameters of the CERES-Rice Model in Korea (CERES-Rice 모형의 품종 모수 추정을 위한 국내 기상관측망 비교)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Tae Kyung;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.122-133
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    • 2021
  • Cultivar parameter calibration can be affected by the reliability of the input data to a crop growth model. In South Korea, two sets of weather stations, which are included in the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS) or the automatic weather system (AWS), are available for preparation of the weather input data. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cultivar parameter using those sets of weather data and to compare the uncertainty of these parameters. The cultivar parameters of CERES-Rice model for Shindongjin cultivar was calibrated using the weather data measured at the weather stations included in either ASO S or AWS. The observation data of crop growth and management at the experiment farms were retrieved from the report of new cultivar development and research published by Rural Development Administration. The weather stations were chosen to be the nearest neighbor to the experiment farms where crop data were collected. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used to calibrate the cultivar parameters for 100 times, which resulted in the distribution of parameter values. O n average, the errors of the heading date decreased by one day when the weather input data were obtained from the weather stations included in AWS compared with ASO S. In particular, reduction of the estimation error was observed even when the distance between the experiment farm and the ASOS stations was about 15 km. These results suggest that the use of the AWS stations would improve the reliability and applicability of the crop growth models for decision support as well as parameter calibration.

A Study on Biomass Estimation Technique of Invertebrate Grazers Using Multi-object Tracking Model Based on Deep Learning (딥러닝 기반 다중 객체 추적 모델을 활용한 조식성 무척추동물 현존량 추정 기법 연구)

  • Bak, Suho;Kim, Heung-Min;Lee, Heeone;Han, Jeong-Ik;Kim, Tak-Young;Lim, Jae-Young;Jang, Seon Woong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.237-250
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we propose a method to estimate the biomass of invertebrate grazers from the videos with underwater drones by using a multi-object tracking model based on deep learning. In order to detect invertebrate grazers by classes, we used YOLOv5 (You Only Look Once version 5). For biomass estimation we used DeepSORT (Deep Simple Online and real-time tracking). The performance of each model was evaluated on a workstation with a GPU accelerator. YOLOv5 averaged 0.9 or more mean Average Precision (mAP), and we confirmed it shows about 59 fps at 4 k resolution when using YOLOv5s model and DeepSORT algorithm. Applying the proposed method in the field, there was a tendency to be overestimated by about 28%, but it was confirmed that the level of error was low compared to the biomass estimation using object detection model only. A follow-up study is needed to improve the accuracy for the cases where frame images go out of focus continuously or underwater drones turn rapidly. However,should these issues be improved, it can be utilized in the production of decision support data in the field of invertebrate grazers control and monitoring in the future.

Development of seawater inflow equations considering density difference between seawater and freshwater at the Nakdong River estuary (해담수 밀도차를 고려한 낙동강하굿둑 해수유입량 산정식 개발)

  • Jeong, Seokil;Lee, Sanguk;Hur, Young Teck;Kim, Youngsung;Kim, Hwa Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.383-392
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    • 2022
  • The restoration of the Nakdong River estuary is one of the most important projects of the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea. A real-scale experiment of gate operation was executed from 2019 to 2020, and a pilot operation was performed in 2021. The gate of Nakdong River Estuary Barrier (NEB) is supposed to be continuously opened based on the experiment results. Many critical decisions should be made immediately during the experiment based on the real-time measured data and numerical analysis considering the seawater inflows. The decision-making sequence was made systematically with the accurate estimation of seawater inflow. The estimation of seawater inflow is the main research objective and the equations of seawater inflow were developed, reflecting the structural characteristics of NEB. The inflow equations were developed in two forms, overflow and underflow. ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) was used to measure seawater inflow, check the accuracy of the developed equations, and derive the flow coefficient. The comparison error of the developed equations was about 3% compared to the measured data.

A Study on the Development of Construction Budget Estimating Model for Public Office Buildings based on Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 기반의 공공청사 공사비 예산 예측모델 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeon Jin;Kim, Han Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.22-34
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    • 2023
  • Predicting accurately the construction cost budget in the early stages of construction projects is crucial to support the client's decision-making and achieve the objectives of the construction project. This holds true for public construction projects as well. However, the current methods for predicting construction cost budgets in the early stages of public construction projects are not sophisticated enough in terms of accuracy and reliability, indicating a need for improvement. The objective of this study is to develop a construction cost budget prediction model that can be utilized in the early stages of public building projects using an artificial neural network (ANN). In this study, an artificial neural network model was developed using the SPSS Statistics program and the data provided by the Public Procurement Service. The level of construction cost budget prediction was analyzed, and the accuracy of the model was validated through additional testing. The validation results demonstrated that the developed artificial neural network model exhibited an error range for estimates that can be utilized in the early stages of projects, indicating the potential to predict construction cost budgets more accurately by incorporating various project conditions.