• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.279-304
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• 2022

This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of North Korean consumer payment instruments through a questionnaire survey of 292 North Korean defectors. In the 2010s, it was found that the payment experience ratio of domestic currency cash and grain decreased, while the payment experience ratio of foreign currency cash increased. The use of foreign currency reached a stage where it was spread not only as a store of value but also as a medium of exchange. However, the most frequently used payment instrument by North Korean consumers was still domestic currency cash. By region, in inland urban areas both domestic currency cash and U.S. dollars are used and in the North Korea-China border region both domestic currency cash and Chinese yuan are used, while in inland rural areas dollarization does not occur because both domestic currency cash and grain are used. Meanwhile, despite the stable price trend during 2013-2019, the dollarization hysteresis effect is appearing, and both the purchasing power risk theory and the network externality theory are considered to have explanatory power for the cause. The results of this paper suggest that as dollarization is intensifying, it is expected that more costs such as shortages of commodities will be incurred than in the past if North Korea's de-dollarization policy is reimplemented. Also, in the case of domestic currency cards, which the North Korean authorities introduced in 2015 as part of a means of financial reform, this paper suggests that it may continue to be difficult for domestic currency cards to normalize official finance under the dollarization hysteresis.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.117-154
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to verify the practical validity of financial sanctions, which has recently emerged as the most powerful form of economic sanctions preferred by U.S. foreign policy tool. Based on the theoretical discussion, analyse this study the trend of de-dollarization appearing in connection with financial sanctions and argue that the effectiveness of financial sanctions erode the dollar financial hegemony, which is the source of its power can be degraded, so that its effectiveness could not be so great as most people likely think about. After World War II, there has been an increasing tendency in the international community to favor economic sanctions over the use of military force as an effective means of foreign policy. Among these economic sanctions, a distinct feature that has recently appeared is the remarkable increase in the frequency of use of financial sanctions. The country that favors financial sanctions most is the United States. The reason is that they believe that the power of their own dollar financial hegemony can exert deadly pressure on other countries. Financial sanctions favored by the United States are said to have increased the effectiveness of sanctions by upgrading the pressure of sanctions to the next level. Nevertheless, financial sanctions have a side that underestimates the cost. This problem is found in the signs that the backlash from not only countries subject to financial sanctions but also many countries with interests in these countries is leading to a tendency to de-dollarization. This study will try to see how likely this de-dollarization trend is to offset the effectiveness of financial sanctions.

• KDI북한경제리뷰
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• v.21 no.10
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• pp.73-93
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• 2019

본 연구는 2013년 북한 쌀가격 및 환율안정의 배경에 대하여 고찰하였다. 이를 위해 외국 이론 및 사례 분석을 참고하였다. 짐바브웨의 사례에서 볼 수 있듯이 하이퍼인플레이션으로 격화된 달러라이제이션이 그 자체로 하이퍼인플레이션을 중단시키지는 못한다고 보았다. 하이퍼인플레이션을 겪었던 모든 국가는 결국 화폐개혁을 단행하게 되었고 때늦은 개혁조치는 대부분 실패하였지만, 성공적인 경우에서 확인되는 중요한 필요조건은 재정통제와 통화남발 중단이라는 점이 발견되었다. 북한도 달러라이제이션을 더 이상 방치할 수 없었고, '조용한' 금융개혁들을 나름 성공적으로 추진하였다고 보았다. 한편, 인플레이션 완화에 불구하고 달러라이제이션이 지속되는 현상에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 외부성(externality) 개념을 도입한 히스테레시스(hysteresis) 이론에 의하면 북한도 '외화통용안정적정태'로의 새로운 균형에 이른 것으로 볼 수 있다. 이는 다른 표현으로 북한의 금융이 안정적인 다중통화체제(multiple monies system)로 변했다는 말이지만, 다중통화체제의 분석은 주류경제학에서도 이렇다할 모델이 없는 것이 실정이다. 다만, 북한 정부는 적극적으로 외화흡수를 시도하고 있으며 그런 의미에서 디달러라이제이션(de-dollarization)이 일정 부분 시작되었다고 보았다.