• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage scenario

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Calculation of future rainfall scenarios to consider the impact of climate change in Seoul City's hydraulic facility design standards (서울시 수리시설 설계기준의 기후변화 영향 고려를 위한 미래강우시나리오 산정)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Lee, Taesam;Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.419-431
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    • 2021
  • In Seoul, it has been confirmed that the duration of rainfall is shortened and the frequency and intensity of heavy rains are increasing with a changing climate. In addition, due to high population density and urbanization in most areas, floods frequently occur in flood-prone areas for the increase in impermeable areas. Furthermore, the Seoul City is pursuing various projects such as structural and non-structural measures to resolve flood-prone areas. A disaster prevention performance target was set in consideration of the climate change impact of future precipitation, and this study conducted to reduce the overall flood damage in Seoul for the long-term. In this study, 29 GCMs with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used for spatial and temporal disaggregation, and we also considered for 3 research periods, which is short-term (2006-2040, P1), mid-term (2041-2070, P2), and long-term (2071-2100, P3), respectively. For spatial downscaling, daily data of GCM was processed through Quantile Mapping based on the rainfall of the Seoul station managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration and for temporal downscaling, daily data were downscaled to hourly data through k-nearest neighbor resampling and nonparametric temporal detailing techniques using genetic algorithms. Through temporal downscaling, 100 detailed scenarios were calculated for each GCM scenario, and the IDF curve was calculated based on a total of 2,900 detailed scenarios, and by averaging this, the change in the future extreme rainfall was calculated. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability of rainfall for a duration of 100 years and a duration of 1 hour increased by 8 to 16% in the RCP4.5 scenario, and increased by 7 to 26% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the results of this study, the amount of rainfall designed to prepare for future climate change in Seoul was estimated and if can be used to establish purpose-wise water related disaster prevention policies.

Experimental Study on Combined Failure Damage of Bi-directional Prestressed Concrete Panel under Impact-Fire Loading (충돌 후 화재에 대한 이방향 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 패널부재의 복합 파괴손상에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Yi, Na-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Won;Choi, Seung-Jai;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.429-440
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    • 2014
  • Since the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks in 2001, terror, military attack, or man-made disaster caused impact, explosion, and fire accident have frequently occured on civil infrastructures. However, structural behavior researches on major Prestressed Concrete (PSC) infrastructures such as bridges, tunnels, Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessel (PCCVs), and LNG tanks under extreme loading are significantly lacking. Especially, researches on possible secondary fire scenarios after terror, bombing, collision of vehicles and vessels on concrete structures have not been performed domestically where most of the past researches related to extreme loadings on structures focused on an independent isolated extreme loading scenario. Due to the outcry of public concerns and anxiety of potential terrorist attacks on major infrastructures and structures, a study is urgently needed at this time. Therefore, in this study, the bi-directional prestressed concrete $1400{\times}1000{\times}300mm$ panels applied with 430 kN prestressing force using unbonded prestressing thread bars were experimentally evaluated under impact, fire, and impact-fire combined loadings. Due to test site restrictions, impact tests were performed with 14 kN impactor with drop heights of 10m and 3.5 m to evaluate impact resistance capacity. Also, fire and impact-fire combined loading were tested using RABT fire loading curve. The measured residual strength capacities of PSC and RC specimens applied with impact, fire, impact-fire combined loadings were compared with the residual strength capacity of undamaged PSC and RC specimens for evaluation. The study results can be used as basic research data for related research areas such as protective design and numerical simulation under extreme loading scenarios.

Vulnerability Assessment for Public Health to Climate change Using Spatio-temporal Information Based on GIS (GIS기반 시공간정보를 이용한 건강부문의 기후변화 취약성 평가)

  • Yoo, Seong-Jin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Oh, Su-Hyun;Byun, Jung-Yeon
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2012
  • To prevent the damage to human health by climate change, vulnerability assessment should be conducted for establishment of adaptation strategies. In this study, vulnerability assessment was conducted to provide information about vulnerable area for making adaptation policy. vulnerability assessment for human health was divided into three categories; extreme heat, ozone, and epidemic disease. To assess vulnerability, suitable indicators were selected by three criteria; sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure, spatial data of indicators were prepared and processed using GIS technique. As a result, high vulnerability to extreme heat was shown in the low land regions of southern part. And vulnerability to harmful ozone was high in the surrounding area of Dae-gu basin and metropolitan area with a number of automobiles. Vulnerability of malaria and tsutsugamushi disease have a region-specific property. They were high in the vicinity of the Dimilitarized zone and south-western plain, respectively. In general, vulnerability of human health was increased in the future time. Vulnerable area was extended from south to central regions and from plain to low mountainous regions. For assessing vulnerability with high accuracy, it is necessary to prepare more related indicators and consider weight of indicators and use climate prediction data based on the newly released scenario when assessing vulnerability.

Case Study on the detailed standard setting and Application for QRA in Honam high speed railway tunnel (호남고속철도터널의 정량적 위험도 분석(QRA)을 위한 세부기준수립 및 적용사례)

  • Kim, Seon-Hong;Moon, Yeon-Oh;Seok, Jin-Ho;Kim, Ki-Lim;Kim, Chan-Dong;Yoo, Ho-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Rock Mechanics Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2008
  • Although the accident rate is lower than the road tunnel, fire in railway tunnel can bring large damage of human life. In the high speed railway tunnel, the possibility of the railway-disaster (fire) is growing in consideration of the speedy railway and the tunnel length. For that reason, MLTM (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs) published "Rules about the Safety Standard of Railroad (2005.10.27)" and "The Detailed Safety Standard of Railroad (2006.9.22)". According to those, QRA(Quantitative Risk Analysis) technique is recommended to be applied to railway tunnel design which is longer than 1km for assuring the safety function and estimating the risk. However, it is difficult to perform the disaster prevention design due to lack of the detailed standards about event scenario, fire intensity, incidence rate of accidents etc. Therefore, This paper introduces the case of tunnel design for disaster prevention of the Honam high speed railway including the detailed standards of QRA and reasonable safety facilities.

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The ETCCDI and Frequency Analysis using RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오를 고려한 극치통계분석 및 빈도해석)

  • Kim, Duck Hwan;Kim, Yon Soo;Hong, Seung Jin;Ly, Sidoeun;Jung, Younghun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.595-607
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    • 2013
  • In this study we estimated ETCCDI and frequency based precipitation using observed precipitation and precipitation from Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios for 58 weather stations which have the recorded data more than 30 years. We tried to eliminate the bias by Quantile Mapping and tested for outliers of simulated data under climate change scenario. Then we estimated ETCCDI related to precipitation and frequency based precipitation for the future. In addition to this study examined the changes of frequency based precipitation for the future target periods. According to the result, dry days will be increased in Korean Peninsula in the 2090s. Also it showed that the number of heavy precipitation day more than 80mm/day tends to be increased in 3~7% in the future. The precipitation of 24-hour duration under climate change will be increased by 17.7% for 80-year frequency, 18.2% for 100-year frequency and 19.6% for 200-year frequency in 2090s. In the 21st century, the damage caused by natural disasters is expected to be increased due to increase of precipitation and the change of runoff characteristics under climate change. Therefore, the proposed ETCCDI and precipitation frequency under climate change are expected to be used for the future natural disaster plan.

A Study on the Quantitative Process Facility Standards that Require H2S Toxic Gas Detectors and Location Selection for Emergency Safety (H2S 독성가스감지기가 필요한 정량적 공정설비 기준 및 비상시 안전을 위한 위치선정 방안에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Jae-Young;Kwon, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2018
  • Design techniques for minimizing the damage caused by leakage of $H_2S$ gas, contained in natural gas and petroleum, have been widely studied abroad in chemical plants that purify and process natural gas and petroleum. However, there is no domestic engineering practice and regulation of $H_2S$. In accordance with the circumstances, this study proposes the quantitative criteria of process equipment to install $H_2S$ toxic gas detector as 500 ppm and explains the valid basis. The $H_2S$ gas dispersion radius up to IDLH 100 ppm is calculated by ALOHA under previous $H_2S$ gas leak accident scenario. The weather conditions of modeling include the conditions of Ulsan, Yeosu and Daesan, the three major petrochemical complexes in Korea. The long radius up to 100 ppm was derived in order of Ulsan, Daesan, Yeosu. For emergency safety the dispersion radius up to 100 ppm of the $H_2S$ gas obtained in this study should be extended to apply the additional $H_2S$ toxic gas detector, and local climate conditions should be considered.

Development of a Mountainous Area Monitoring System based on IoT Technology (IoT 기술 기반의 산악지 모니터링 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Kyoon-Tai
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.437-446
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    • 2017
  • 70 percent of Korea's territory is covered with mountains, whose difficult conditions can cause damage to facilities. Recently, the demand for facilities related to outdoor activities including monorails has been on the rise, and such facilities are much more likely to become damaged. For this reason, a monitoring system applying IoT to mountainous areas was developed and its applicability is evaluated in this study. The current status of the existing mountainous facilities and monitoring systems were reviewed, and the current wired monitoring technology was analyzed. A scenario for IoT-based monitoring was developed, and then sensor nodes were developed, which include an RF-communication module and interface, power-supply and solar-cell. A testbed was set up at K University. The same data was collected by the wireless system as had been collected by the wired one. The study findings are as follows. Firstly, by using the wireless system, it is estimated that the construction duration can be reduced by about 25 percent, while the construction costs can be reduced by about 3~52 percent. Secondly, the safety of the construction workers can be improved by making the working conditions less dangerous, such as by eliminating the need to transport cables.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall and I-D-F Analysis (기후변화가 극한강우와 I-D-F 분석에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Bo-Kyung;Kyung, Min-Soo;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.379-394
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    • 2008
  • Recently, extreme precipitation events beyond design capacity of hydraulic system have been occurred and this is the causes of failure of hydraulic structure for flood prevention and of severe flood damage. Therefore it is very important to understand temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events as well as expected changes in extreme precipitation events and distributional characteristics during design period under future climate change. In this paper, climate change scenarios were used to assess the impacts of future climate change on extreme precipitation. Furthermore, analysis of future extreme precipitation characteristics and I-D-F analysis were carried out. This study used SRES B2 greenhouse gas scenario and YONU CGCM to simulate climatic conditions from 2031 to 2050 and statistical downscaling method was applied to establish weather data from each of observation sites operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Then quantile mapping of bias correction methods was carried out by comparing the simulated data with observations for bias correction. In addition Modified Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse(MBLRP) model (Onof and Wheater, 1993; Onof 2000) and adjust method were applied to transform daily precipitation time series data into hourly time series data. Finally, rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency were calculated to draw I-D-F curve. Although there are 66 observation sites in Korea, we consider here the results from only Seoul, Daegu, Jeonju, and Gwangju sites in this paper. From the results we found that the rainfall intensity will be increased and the bigger intensity will be occurred for longer rainfall duration when we compare the climate conditions of 2030s with present conditions.

Composite model for seawater intrusion in groundwater and soil salinization due to sea level rise (해수면 상승으로 인한 지하수 해수침투 및 토양 염류화 합성 평가모델)

  • Jung, Euntae;Park, Namsik;Cho, Kwangwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.387-395
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    • 2017
  • Sea level rise, accompanied by climate change, is expected to exacerbate seawater intrusion in the coastal groundwater system. As the salinity of saturated groundwater increases, salinity can increase even in the unsaturated soil above the groundwater surface, which may cause crop damage in the agricultural land. The other adverse impact of sea level rise is reduced unsaturated soil thicknesses. In this study, a composite model to assess impacts of sea level rise in coastal agricultural land is proposed. The composite model is based on the combined applications of a three dimensional model for simulating saltwater intrusion into the groundwater and a vertical one dimensional model for simulating unsaturated zone flow and transport. The water level and salinity distribution of groundwater are calculated using the three dimensional seawater intrusion model. At some uppermost nodes, where salinity are higher than the reference value, of the 3D mesh one dimensional unsaturated zone modeling is conducted along the soil layer between the ground water surface and the ground surface. A particular location is judged salinized when the concentration at the root-zone depth exceeds the tolerable salinity for ordinary crops. The developed model is applied to a hypothetical agricultural reclamation land. IPCC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as sea level rise data. Results are presented for 2050 and 2100. As a result of the study, it is predicted that by 2100 in the climate change scenario RCP 8.5, there will be 7.8% increase in groundwater saltwater-intruded area, 6.0% increase of salinized soil area, and 1.6% in increase in water-logging area.

Damage Evaluation of Bi-directionally Prestressed Concrete Panels under Blast-fire Combined Loading (폭발 후 화재하중 시나리오에 따른 2방향 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 패널부재의 손상도 평가)

  • Choi, Ji-Hun;Choi, Seung-Jai;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2017
  • Frequent terror or military attack by explosion, impact, fire accidents have occurred recently. These attacks and incidents raised public concerns and anxiety of potential terrorist attacks on important infrastructures. However, structural behavioral researches on prestressed concrete (PSC) infrastructures such as Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessel (PCCV) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) storage tanks under extreme loading are significantly lacking at this time. Also, researches on possible secondary fire scenarios after terror and bomb explosion has not been performed yet. Therefore, a study on PSC structural behavior from an blast-induced fire scenario was undertaken. To evaluate the blast-fire combined resistance capacity and its protective performance of bi-directional unbonded PSC member, blast-fire tests were carried out on $1,400mm{\times}1,000mm{\times}300mm$ PSC specimens. Blast loading tests were performed by the detonation of 25 kg ANFO explosive charge at 1.0 m standoff distance. Also, fire and blast-fire combined loading were tested using RABT fire loading curve. The test results are discussed in detail in the paper. The results can be used as basic research references for related research areas, which include protective design simulation under blast-fire combined loading.