• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage range

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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Effects of climate change on biodiversity and measures for them (생물다양성에 대한 기후변화의 영향과 그 대책)

  • An, Ji Hong;Lim, Chi Hong;Jung, Song Hie;Kim, A Reum;Lee, Chang Seok
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.474-480
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    • 2016
  • In this study, formation background of biodiversity and its changes in the process of geologic history, and effects of climate change on biodiversity and human were discussed and the alternatives to reduce the effects of climate change were suggested. Biodiversity is 'the variety of life' and refers collectively to variation at all levels of biological organization. That is, biodiversity encompasses the genes, species and ecosystems and their interactions. It provides the basis for ecosystems and the services on which all people fundamentally depend. Nevertheless, today, biodiversity is increasingly threatened, usually as the result of human activity. Diverse organisms on earth, which are estimated as 10 to 30 million species, are the result of adaptation and evolution to various environments through long history of four billion years since the birth of life. Countlessly many organisms composing biodiversity have specific characteristics, respectively and are interrelated with each other through diverse relationship. Environment of the earth, on which we live, has also created for long years through extensive relationship and interaction of those organisms. We mankind also live through interrelationship with the other organisms as an organism. The man cannot lives without the other organisms around him. Even though so, human beings accelerate mean extinction rate about 1,000 times compared with that of the past for recent several years. We have to conserve biodiversity for plentiful life of our future generation and are responsible for sustainable use of biodiversity. Korea has achieved faster economic growth than any other countries in the world. On the other hand, Korea had hold originally rich biodiversity as it is not only a peninsula country stretched lengthily from north to south but also three sides are surrounded by sea. But they disappeared increasingly in the process of fast economic growth. Korean people have created specific Korean culture by coexistence with nature through a long history of agriculture, forestry, and fishery. But in recent years, the relationship between Korean and nature became far in the processes of introduction of western culture and development of science and technology and specific natural feature born from harmonious combination between nature and culture disappears more and more. Population of Korea is expected to be reduced as contrasted with world population growing continuously. At this time, we need to restore biodiversity damaged in the processes of rapid population growth and economic development in concert with recovery of natural ecosystem due to population decrease. There were grand extinction events of five times since the birth of life on the earth. Modern extinction is very rapid and human activity is major causal factor. In these respects, it is distinguished from the past one. Climate change is real. Biodiversity is very vulnerable to climate change. If organisms did not find a survival method such as 'adaptation through evolution', 'movement to the other place where they can exist', and so on in the changed environment, they would extinct. In this respect, if climate change is continued, biodiversity should be damaged greatly. Furthermore, climate change would also influence on human life and socio-economic environment through change of biodiversity. Therefore, we need to grasp the effects that climate change influences on biodiversity more actively and further to prepare the alternatives to reduce the damage. Change of phenology, change of distribution range including vegetation shift, disharmony of interaction among organisms, reduction of reproduction and growth rates due to odd food chain, degradation of coral reef, and so on are emerged as the effects of climate change on biodiversity. Expansion of infectious disease, reduction of food production, change of cultivation range of crops, change of fishing ground and time, and so on appear as the effects on human. To solve climate change problem, first of all, we need to mitigate climate change by reducing discharge of warming gases. But even though we now stop discharge of warming gases, climate change is expected to be continued for the time being. In this respect, preparing adaptive strategy of climate change can be more realistic. Continuous monitoring to observe the effects of climate change on biodiversity and establishment of monitoring system have to be preceded over all others. Insurance of diverse ecological spaces where biodiversity can establish, assisted migration, and establishment of horizontal network from south to north and vertical one from lowland to upland ecological networks could be recommended as the alternatives to aid adaptation of biodiversity to the changing climate.

Chronic HBV Infection in Children: The histopathologic classification and its correlation with clinical findings (소아의 만성 B형 간염: 새로운 병리조직학적 분류와 임상 소견의 상관 분석)

  • Lee, Seon-Young;Ko, Jae-Sung;Kim, Chong-Jai;Jang, Ja-June;Seo, Jeong-Kee
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.56-78
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    • 1998
  • Objective: Chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) occurs in 6% to 10% of population in Korea. In ethinic communities where prevalence of chronic infection is high such as Korea, transmission of hepatitis B infection is either vertical (ie, by perinatal infection) or by close family contact (usually from mothers or siblings) during the first 5 years of life. The development of chronic hepatitis B infection is increasingly more common the earlier a person is exposed to the virus, particularly in fetal and neonatal life. And it progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, especially in severe liver damage and perinatal infection. Histopathology of CHB is important when evaluating the final outcomes. A numerical scoring system which is a semiquantitatively assessed objective reproducible classification of chronic viral hepatitis, is a valuable tool for statistical analysis when predicting the outcome and evaluating antiviral and other therapies. In this study, a numerical scoring system (Ludwig system) was applied and compared with the conventional histological classification of De Groute. And the comparative analysis of cinical findings, family history, serology, and liver function test by histopathological findings in chronic hepatitis B of children was done. Methods: Ninety nine patients [mean age=9 years (range=17 months to 16 years)] with clinical, biochemical, serological and histological patterns of chronic HBV infection included in this study. Five of these children had hepatocelluar carcinoma. They were 83 male and 16 female children. They all underwent liver biopsies and histologic evaluation was performed by one pathologist. The biopsy specimens were classified, according to the standard criteria of De Groute as follows: normal, chronic lobular hepatitis (CLH), chronic persistent hepatitis (CPH), mild to severe chronic active hepatitis (CAH), or active cirrhosis, inactive cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). And the biopsy specimens were also assessed and scored semiquantitatively by the numerical scoring Ludwig system. Serum HBsAg, anti-HBs, HBeAg, anti-HBe, anti-HBc (IgG, IgM), and HDV were measured by radioimunoassays. Results: Male predominated in a proportion of 5.2:1 for all patients. Of 99 patients, 2 cases had normal, 2 cases had CLH, 22 cases had CPH, 40 cases had mild CAH, 19 cases had moderate CAH, 1 case had severe CAH, 7 cases had active cirrhosis, 1 case had inactive cirrhosis, and 5 cases had HCC. The mean age, sex distribution, symptoms, signs, and family history did not differ statistically among the different histologic groups. The numerical scoring system was correlated well with the conventional histological classification. The histological activity evaluated by both the conventional classification and the scoring system was more severe as the levels of serum aminotransferases were higher. In contrast, the levels of serum aminotransferases were not useful for predicting the degree of histologic activity because of its wide range overlapping. When the histological activity was more severe and especially the cirrhosis more progressing, the prothrombin time was more prolonged. The histological severity was inversely related with the duration of seroconversion of HBeAg. Conclusions: The histological activity could not be accurately predicted by clinical and biochemical findings, but by the proper histological classification of the numerical scoring system for the biopsy specimen. The numerical scoring system was correlated well with the conventional histological classification, and it seems to be a valuable tool for the statistical analysis when predicting the outcome and evaluating effects of antiviral and other therapies in chronic hepatitis B in children.

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A Study on the Growth Diagnosis and Management Prescription for Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214) (진안 평지리 이팝나무군(천연기념물 제214호)의 생육진단 및 관리방안)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Han, Sang-Yub;Choi, Yung-Hyun;Son, Hee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2018
  • This study was attempted to find out the value of cultural assets through the clear diagnosis and prescription of the dead and weakness factors of the Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214), The results are as follows. First, Since the designation of 13 natural monuments in 1968, since 1973, many years have passed since then. In particular, despite the removal of some of the buried soil during the maintenance process, such as retreating from the fence of the primary school after 2010, Second, The first and third surviving tree of the designated trees also have many branches that are dead, the leaves are dull, and the amount of leaves is small. vitality of tree is 'extremely bad', and the first branch has already been faded by a large number of branches, and the amount of leaves is considerably low this year, so that only two flowers are bloomed. The second is also in a 'bad'state, with small leaves, low leaf density, and deformed water. The largest number 1 in the world is added to the concern that the s coverd oil is assumed to be paddy soils. Third, It is found that the composition ratio of silt is high because it is known as '[silty loam(SiL)]'. In addition, the pH of the northern soil at pH 1 was 6.6, which was significantly different from that of the other soil. In addition, the organic matter content was higher than the appropriate range, which is considered to reflect the result of continuous application for protection management. Fourth, It is considered that the root cause of failure and growth of Jinan pyeongji-ri Population of Retusa Fringe Trees group is chronic syndrome of serious menstrual deterioration due to covered soil. This can also be attributed to the newly planted succession and to some of the deaths. Fifthly, It is urgent to gradually remove the subsoil part, which is estimated to be the cause of the initial damage. Above all, it is almost impossible to remove the coverd soil after grasping the details of the soil, such as clayey soil, which is buried in the rootstock. After removal of the coverd soil, a pestle is installed to improve the respiration of the roots and the ground with Masato. And the dead 4th dead wood and the 5th and 6th dead wood are the best, and the lower layer vegetation is mown. The viable neck should be removed from the upper surface, and the bark defect should undergo surgery and induce the development of blindness by vestibule below the growth point. Sixth, The underground roots should be identified to prepare a method to improve the decompression of the root and the respiration of the soil. It is induced by the shortening of rotten roots by tracing the first half of the rootstock to induce the generation of new roots. Seventh, We try mulching to suppress weed occurrence, trampling pressure, and soil moisturizing effect. In addition, consideration should be given to the fertilization of the foliar fertilizer, the injection of the nutrients, and the soil management of the inorganic fertilizer for the continuous nutrition supply. Future monitoring and forecasting plans should be developed to check for changes continuously.

Studies on nutrient sources, fermentation and harmful organisms of the synthetic compost affecting yield of Agaricus bisporus (Lange) Sing (양송이 수량(收量)에 미치는 합성퇴비배지(合成堆肥培地)의 영양원(營養源), 발효(醱酵) 및 유해생물(有害生物)에 관((關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Shin, Gwan-Chull
    • The Korean Journal of Mycology
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.13-73
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    • 1979
  • These studies were conducted to investigate nutrient sources and supplementary materials of synthetic compost media for Agaricus bisporus culture. Investigation were carried out to establish the optimum composition for compost of Agaricus bisporus methods of out-door fermentation and peakheating with rice straw as the main substrate of the media. The incidence and flora of harmful organisms in rice straw compost and their control were also studied. 1. When rice straw was used as the main substrate in synthetic compost as a carbon source. yields were remarkably high. Fermentation was more rapid than that of barley straw or wheat straw, and the total nitrogen content was high in rice straw compost. 2. Since the morphological and physico-chemical nature of Japonica and Indica types of rice straw are greatly dissimilar. there were apparent differences in the process of compost fermentation. Fermentation of Indica type straw proceeded more rapidly with a shortening the compost period, reducing the water supply, and required adding of supplementary materials for producing stable physical conditions. 3. Use of barley straw compost resulted in a smaller crop compared with rice straw. but when a 50%, barley straw and 50% rice straw mixture was used, the yield was almost the same as that using only rice straw. 4. There were extremely high positive correlations between yield of Agaricus bisporus and the total nitrogen, organic nitrogen, amino acids, amides and amino sugar nitrogen content of compost. The mycerial growth and fruit body formation were severely inhibited by ammonium nitrogen. 5. When rice straw was used as the main substrate for compost media, urea was the most suitable source of nitrogen. Poor results were obtained with calcium cyanamide and ammonium sulfate. When urea was applied three separate times, nitrogen loss during composting was decreased and the total nitrogen content of compost was increased. 6. The supplementation of organic nutrient activated compost fermentation and increased yield of Agaricus bisporus. The best sources of organic nutrients were: perilla meal, sesame meal, wheat bran and poultry manure, etc. 7. Soybean meal, tobacco powder and glutamic acid fermentation by-products which were industrial wastes, could be substituted for perilla meal, sesame meal and wheat bran as organic nutrient sources for compost media. B. When gypsum and zeolite were added to rice straw. physical deterioration of compost due to excess moisture and caramelization was observed. The Indica type of straw was more remarkable in increase of yield of Agricus bisporus by addition of supplementing materials than Japonica straw. 9. For preparing rice straw compost, the best mixture was prepared by 10% poultry manure, 5% perilla meal, 1. 2 to 1. 5% urea and 1% gypsum. At spring cropping, it was good to add rice bran to accelerate heat generation of the compost heap. 10. There was significantly high positive correlation (r=0.97) between accumulated temperature and the decomposition degree of compost during outdoor composting. The yield was highest at accumulated temperatures between 900 and $1,000^{\circ}C$. 11. Prolonging the composting period brought about an increase in decomposition degree and total nitrogen content, but a decrease in ammonium nitrogen. In the spring the suitable period of composting was 20 to 25 days. and about 15 days in autumn. For those periods, the degree of decomposition was 19 to 24%. 12. Compactness of wet compost at filling caused an increase in the residual ammonium nitrogen. methane and organic acid during peak heating. There was negative correlation between methane content and yield (r=0.76)and the same was true between volatile organic acid and yield (r=0.73). 13. In compost with a moisture content range between 69 to 80% at filling. the higher the moisture content, the lower the yield (r=0.78). This result was attributed to a reduction in the porosity of compost at filling the beds. The optimum porosity for good fermentation was between 41 and 53%. 14. Peak heating of the compost was essential for the prevention of harmful microorganisms and insect pests. and for the removal of excess ammonia. It was necessary to continue fer mentatiion for four days after peak heating. 15. Ten species of fungi which are harmful or competitive to Agaricus bisporus were identified from the rice compost, including Diehliomyces microsporus, Trichoderma sp. and Stysanus stemoites. The frequency of occurrance was notably high with serious damage to Agaricus bisporus. 16. Diehliomyces microsporus could be controlled by temperature adjustment of the growing room and by fumigating the compost and the house with Basamid and Vapam. Trichoderma was prevented by the use of Bavistin and Benomyl. 17. Four species of nematodes and five species of mites occured in compost during out-door composting. These orgnanisms could be controlled through peakheating compost for 6 hours at $60^{\circ}C$.

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