• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.40 no.9
• /
• pp.709-722
• /
• 2007

The floods of Korea happens periodically during summer. The cause of heavy rain that provokes floods can be classified into typhoon and localized downpour. The typhoon happens in the tropical region. It causes one of the worst damage to Korea by extreme rainfall and strong wind. Usually, it is known that the flood damage by the typhoon is larger than that by the localized downpour. Therefore, this study classified rainfall events into typhoon events and localized downpour events based on the cause. Through statistical analyses of the rainfall data, this study investigated special quality of the rainfall during the time of typhoon. In analysis results, probability Precipitation calculated by the typhoon events were exposed bigger than that calculated by all rainfall events.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
• /
• v.29 no.4
• /
• pp.47-54
• /
• 2020

North Korea has recently developed and deployed missiles with various ranges as asymmetrical forces. Among them, short-range ballistic missiles with improved accuracy are expected to aim at achieving tactical goals by hitting important military facilities in Korea with a small number of missiles. Damage to the air force airfields, one of North Korea's main targets of missiles attack, could limit the operation of air force fighters essential to gaining air superiority. Based on the attack by the short range ballistic missiles, the damage probability of military airfields was simulated. And as the one of the concepts of passive defense, the way to reduce the loss of combat power was studied through the changes of the air force squadrons deployment. As a result, the effective deployment plan could be obtained to reduce the amount of power loss compared to the current deployment.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.1-13
• /
• 2022

A weighted linear combination of seismic fragility models previously developed for cut-and-cover railway tunnels was presented and the appropriateness of the combined model was evaluated. The seismic fragility function is expressed in the form of a cumulative probability function of the lognormal distribution based on the peak ground acceleration. The model uncertainty can be reduced by combining models independently developed. Equal weight is applied to four models. The new seismic fragility function was developed for each damage level by determining the median and standard deviation, which are model metrics. Comparing fragility curves developed for other bored tunnels, cut-and-cover tunnels for high-speed railway system have a similar level of fragility. We postulated that this is due to the high seismic design standard for high-speed railway tunnel.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
• /
• v.55 no.3
• /
• pp.322-331
• /
• 2017

District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.35 no.2
• /
• pp.23-32
• /
• 2023

Probabilistic and deterministic analyses are implemented for the armor units of rubble foundation mound of composite breakwaters which is needed to protect the upright section against the scour of foundation mounds. By a little modification and incorporation of the previous empirical formulas that has commonly been applied to design the armor units of foundation mound, a new type formula of stability number has been suggested which is capable of taking into account slopes of foundation mounds, damage ratios of armor units, and incident wave numbers. The new proposed formula becomes mathematically identical with the previous empirical formula under the same conditions used in the developing process. Deterministic design have first been carried out to evaluate the minimum weights of armor units for several conditions associated with a typical section of composite breakwater. When the slopes of foundation mound become steepening and the incident wave numbers are increasing, the bigger armor units more than those from the previous empirical formula should be required. The opposite trends however are shown if the damage ratios is much more allowed. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis, which is one of probabilistic models, has been performed in order to quantitatively verify how the armor unit resulted from the deterministic design is stable. It has been confirmed that 1.2% of annual encounter probability of failure has been evaluated under the condition of 1% damage ratio of armor units for the design wave of 50 years return period. By additionally calculating the influence factors of the related random variables on the failure probability due to those uncertainties, it has been found that Hudson's stability coefficient, significant wave height, and water depth above foundation mound have sequentially been given the impacts on failure regardless of the incident wave angles. Finally, sensitivity analysis has been interpreted with respect to the variations of random variables which are implicitly involved in the formula of stability number for armor units of foundation mound. Then, the probability of failure have been rapidly decreased as the water depth above foundation mound are deepening. However, it has been shown that the probability of failure have been increased according as the berm width of foundation mound are widening and wave periods become shortening.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.27 no.6
• /
• pp.517-524
• /
• 2014

The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.53 no.7
• /
• pp.521-531
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this study is to suggest a quantitative assessment of wetland damage considering the effects of topsoil erosion and deposition from rainfall. In the Cheoncheon Basin located upstream of the Yongdam Dam, 16 wetlands are located, but the lacustrine and small palustrine wetland were analyzed for possible damage to erosion and deposition. As a result of applying typhoon events in 2002 and 2003, the sediment load from the upper basin was the highest at 2.30% (22,548 ㎥) of low water capacity. The average sediment load in the mountain areas was found to be 0.03% of the low water capacity, and it was analyzed to be less damaging than the lacustrine with relatively large watershed. as a result of the model, the lacustrine wetland, where a large area is used as agricultural land, shows a high probability of sediment yield, so it is highly likely to damage the wetland by topsoil erosion.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2012

Subterranean termites forage by constructing tunnel networks in soil and encounter food resources during tunnel excavation. Some species of termites can travel up to 150 m underground. They often travel to the surface to find wood cellulose to feed their colony, which in turn causes extensive damage to wooden architecture, such as timber-frame houses. This type of damage has been constantly increasing along with global warming because higher temperatures provide an ecological niche for termites. The damage is closely related to termite territory size and distribution. Recently, as a way to research termite control, the necessity of a mathematical model to simulate termite territory formation in relation to damage has increased. So far, however, few studies have been conducted on the development of a model because it is difficult to quantify or characterize the relationship between territorial behavior and field conditions including complicated environmental factors. In the present study, we suggest a simulation model of the territoriality of the Formosan subterranean termites, Coptotermes formosanus (Shiraki), and Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar), based on empirical data. The model consists of 2 procedures. One describes tunnel network growth for each colony, and the other represents territoriality based on tunnel-tunnel interactions between different colonies. Using the model, we show changes in territorial competition according to the termination probability of tunnel growth.

• Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.171-183
• /
• 2000

1. Back ground and purpose An experimental study has done to examine the effect of defense and cure gastric mucasal damage of Mokdan-pijihwang-tang. 2. Methods Mice had intragastric injected with MJ extract before indomethacin treatment which induces homorrhage infarct and erosion artificially. Degree of lipid peroxidation, general morphology, change of mucous cell, the distribution of PNA, ICAM and distribution of apoptotic cell were objected. (Abbreviation) MJ : Mokdanpijihwang-tang, PNA : Peanut Agglutinin, ICAM : Intercellular Adhesion Molecule 3 Results 1) The degree of lipid peroxidation in INDO-group had increased conspicuously than control group. But the degree of lipid peroxidation in MJ-group had decreased than INDO-group and these decline had probability. 2) After indomethacin treatment, hemorrhage infarct and erosion had increased in stomach body. But in MJ-group, the configuration is normal, except the group intragastric injected with MJ extract at hour 24 before indomethacin treatment. 3) Surface mucous cell and neck mucous had disappeared in INDO-group. But in MJ-group tormal distribution had shown like control group except the group intragastric injected with MJ extract at hour 24 before indomethacin treatment. 4) PNA positive reaction had not shown in INDO-group. But medium PNA positive reaction had shown In Mj-group. 5) ICAM positive reacted cell had shown in INDO-group. The decrease of ICAM positive cell were shown than INDO-group. 6) A number of apoptotic cell was distributed in hemorrhagic erosion. A few number of apoptotic cell was distributed in MJ-group except some surface mucous. 4. Conclusion These results suggest that MJ has an effect on cure of gastric mucosal damage.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.5 no.4 s.19
• /
• pp.71-78
• /
• 2005

The principal basic concepts of aseismic design minimize damage of human-life and have little probability during life of structures. For detailed understanding of the design, the best reasonable countermeasure can be possible equally the smallest damage of human-life and economic loss. As a result, it can be achieved by notion of not structure-centered but city-centered, the notion is actualized by development of a macro-level evaluation. A seismic damage between city and country is different. And the larger the city then, the greater the loss by rather collateral hazards than collapse of structures. Hence, the macro-evaluation of an earthquake disaster is suitable for an old city where is center of political and economic activity, and is concentration of population and infrastructure. This study aims to develop comprehensive earthquake desaster risk index, and assesses relative earthquake risk of six zones in Seoul metropolitan area.