• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage estimation

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Methodology for estimating the damage rate of equipment mounted on the warship (해상 플랫폼 탑재장비 손실률 산정 방법 - 워게임모델 적용을 중심으로 -)

  • Jeong Kwan, Yang;Bong Seok, Kim;Ji Hoon, Kyung;Hyun Shik, Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.108-116
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    • 2022
  • Accurately predicting wartime resources requirements and preparing war supplies in peacetime is an important task that can determine the outcome of the war by guaranteeing the duration of the operation. The wartime warship damage rate is a measure of estimating the battle damage of our warships in the process of performing battles to achieve the war goal. In the previously studied wartime warship damage rate estimation method, when damage occurs, long-term repair is required due to the complexity and specificity of the ship structure. Only the case of a complete defeat at the level of sinking was defined as a damage, and even if it was impossible to perform a maritime operation mission, it was not estimated as a damage if the level of sinking was not reached. Therefore, in order to improve the reliability of the wartime warship damage rate, the equipment damage assessment level can be estimated based on the warhead weight of the threat weapon system, the vulnerability rate of the warship's equipment, and the warship's hull. In the future, it is expected that the estimation methodology proposed in this study will be used as a simulation logic when developing a model for analyzing the wartime resources requirements for the warship's equipment and hull.

Development Plan of Facility Importance, Risk, and Damage Estimation Inventory Construction for Assisting Disaster Response Decision-Making (재난대응 의사결정 지원을 위한 시설물 중요도·위험도·피해액 산정 인벤토리 구축 방안 연구)

  • CHOI, Soo-Young;GANG, Su-Myung;JO, Yun-Won;OH, Eun-Ho;PARK, Jae-Woo;KIM, Gil-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.167-179
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    • 2016
  • The safety of SOC facilities is constantly under threat by the globally increasing abnormal climate. Responding to disasters requires prompt decision-making such as suggesting evacuation paths. For doing so, spatio-temporal information with convergence of disaster information and SOC facility information must be utilized. Such information is being collected separately by the government or related organizations, but not collectively. The collective control of the separately collected disaster information and the generation of SOC facility safety and damage information are required for prompt disaster response. Also, as disaster information requires spatio-temporal convergence in its nature, the construction of an inventory that integrates related information and assists disaster response decision-making is required. A plan to construct a facility importance, risk, and damage estimation inventory for assisting prompt disaster response decision-making is suggested in this study. Through this study, the disaster and SOC facility-related data, which are being managed separately, can be collected and standardized. The integrated information required for the estimation of facility importance, risk, and damage can be provided. The suggested system is expected to be used as a decision-making tool for proactive disaster response.

Collapse mechanism estimation of a historical slender minaret

  • Nohutcu, H.;Hokelekli, E.;Ercan, E.;Demir, A.;Altintas, G.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.64 no.5
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    • pp.653-660
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this study is to accurately estimate seismic damage and the collapse mechanism of the historical stone masonry minaret "Hafsa Sultan", which was built in 1522. Surveying measurements and material tests were conducted to obtain a 3D solid model and the mechanical properties of the components of the minaret. The initial Finite Element (FE) model is analyzed and numerical dynamic characteristics of the minaret are obtained. The Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) method is conducted to obtain the experimental dynamic characteristics of the minaret and the initial FE model is calibrated by using the experimental results. Then, linear time history (LTH) and nonlinear time history (NLTH) analyses are carried out on the calibrated FE model by using two different ground motions. Iron clamps which used as connection element between the stones of the minaret considerably increase the tensile strength of the masonry system. The Concrete Damage Plasticity (CDP) model is selected in the nonlinear analyses in ABAQUS. The analyses conducted indicate that the results of the linear analyses are not as realistic as the nonlinear analysis results when compared with existing damage.

Pattern Recognition of modal Sensitivity for Structural Damage Identification of Truss Structure (트러스의 구조손상추정을 위한 진동모드민감도의 패턴인식)

  • 류연선
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2000
  • Despite many combined research efforts outstanding needs exist to develop robust safety-estimation methods for large complex structures. This paper presents a practical damage identification scheme which can be applied to truss structures using only limited modal responses. firstly a theory of pattern recognition (PR) is described. Secondly existing damage-detection algorithms are outlined and a newly-derived algorithms for truss structures. Finally the feasibility of the proposed scheme is evaluated using numerical examples of plane truss structures.

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Development of Estimation Functions for Strong Winds Damage Reflecting Regional Characteristics Based on Disaster Annual Reports : Focused on Gyeongsang Area (재해연보 기반 지역특성을 반영한 강풍피해예측함수 개발 : 경상지역을 중심으로)

  • Rho, Jung-Lae;Song, Chang-young
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.223-236
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In this study, a strong wind damage prediction function was developed in order to be used as a contingency during disaster management (preventive-preventive-response-recovery). Method: The predicted strong wind damage function proposed in this study took into account the re-enactment boy power, weather data and local characteristics at the time of damage. The meteorological data utilized the wind speed, temperature, and damage history observed by the Korea Meteorological Administration, the disaster year, and the recovery costs, population, vinyl house area, and farm water contained in the disaster report as factors to reflect the regional characteristics. Result: The function developed in this study reflected the predicted weather factors and local characteristics based on the history of strong wind damage in the past, and the extent of damage can be predicted in a short time. Conclusion: Strong wind damage prediction functions developed in this study are believed to be available for effective disaster management, such as decision making by policy-makers, deployment of emergency personnel and disaster prevention resources.

Modeling Downstream Flood Damage Prediction Followed by Dam-Break of Small Agricultural Reservoir (농업용 소규모 저수지의 붕괴에 따른 하류부 피해예측 모델링)

  • Park, Jong-Yoon;Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Jung, In-Kyun;Jung, Kwan-Soo;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kang, Bu-Sik;Yoon, Chang-Jin;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2010
  • This study is to develop a downstream flood damage prediction model for efficient confrontation in case of extreme and flash flood by future probable small agricultural dam break situation. For a Changri reservoir (0.419 million $m^3$) located in Yongin city of Gyeonggi province, a dam break scenario was prepared. With the probable maximum flood (PMF) condition calculated from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), the flood condition by dam break was generated by using the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) model. The flood propagation to the 1.12 km section of Hwagok downstream was simulated using HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System) model. The flood damaged areas were generated by overtopping from the levees and the boundaries were extracted for flood damage prediction, and the degree of flood damage was evaluated using IDEM (Inundation Damage Estimation Method) by modifying MD-FDA (Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis) and regression analysis simple method. The result of flood analysis by dam-break was predicted to occurred flood depth of 0.4m in interior floodplain by overtopping under PMF scenario, and maximum flood depth was predicted up to 1.1 m. Moreover, for the downstream of the Changri reservoir, the total amount of the maximum flood damage by dam-break was calculated nearly 1.2 billion won by IDEM.

Categorical Prediction and Improvement Plan of Snow Damage Estimation using Random Forest (랜덤포레스트를 이용한 대설피해액에 대한 범주형 예측 및 개선방안 검토)

  • Lee, Hyeong Joo;Chung, Gunhui
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.157-162
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the occurrence of unusual heavy snow and cold are increasing due to the unusual global climate change. In particular, the temperature dropped to minus 69 degrees Celsius in the United States on January 8, 2018. In Korea, on February 17, 2014, the auditorium building in Gyeongju Mauna Resort was collapsed due to the heavy snowfall. Because of the tragic accident many studies on the reduction of snow damage is being conducted, but it is difficult to predict the exact damage due to the lack of historical damage data, and uncertainty of meteorological data due to the long distance between the damaged area and the observatory. Therefore, in this study, available data were collected from factors that are thought to be corresponding to snow damage, and the amount of snow damage was estimated categorically using a random forest. At present, the prediction accuracy was not sufficient due to lack of historical damage data and changes of the design code for green houses. However, if accurate weather data are obtained in the affected areas. the accuracy of estimates would increase enough for being used for be the degree preparedness of disaster management.

Earthquake Direct Economic Loss Estimation of Building Structures in Gangnam-Gu District in Seoul Using HAZUS Framework (HAZUS틀을 사용한 서울시 강남구의 건축물 지진피해에 따른 직접적 경제손실 예측)

  • Jeong, Gi Hyun;Lee, Han Seon;Kwon, Oh-Sung;Hwang, Kyung Ran
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.391-400
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    • 2016
  • For earthquake loss estimation of building structures in Gangnam-Gu district in Seoul, three scenario earthquakes were selected by comparison of the response spectra of these scenario earthquakes with the design spectrum in Korean Building Code (KBC 2009), and then direct losses of the building structures in the Gangnam-Gu district under each scenario earthquake are estimated. The following conclusions are drawn from the results of damage and loss in the second scenario earthquake, which has a magnitude = 6.5 and epicentral distance =15 km: (1) The ratio of building stocks undergoing the extensive and complete damage level is 40.0% of the total. (2) The amount of direct economic losses appears approximately 19 trillion won, which is 1.2% of the national GDP of Korea. (3) About 25% of high-rise (over 10-story) RC building wall structures, were inflicted with the damage exceeding moderate level, when compared to 60% of low-rise building structures. (4) From the economical view point, the main loss, approximately 50%, was caused by the damage in the high-rise RC wall building structures.

Condition assessment of bridge pier using constrained minimum variance unbiased estimator

  • Tamuly, Pranjal;Chakraborty, Arunasis;Das, Sandip
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.319-344
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    • 2020
  • Inverse analysis of non-linear reinforced concrete bridge pier using recursive Gaussian filtering for in-situ condition assessment is the main theme of this work. For this purpose, minimum variance unbiased estimation using unscented sigma points is adopted here. The uniqueness of this inverse analysis lies in its approach for strain based updating of engineering demand parameters, where appropriate bound and constrained conditions are introduced to ensure numerical stability and convergence. In this analysis, seismic input is also identified, which is an added advantage for the structures having no dedicated sensors for earthquake measurement. First, the proposed strategy is tested with a simulated example whose hysteretic properties are obtained from the slow-cyclic test of a frame to investigate its efficiency and accuracy. Finally, the experimental test data of a full-scale bridge pier is used to study its in-situ condition in terms of Park & Ang damage index. Overall the study shows the ability of the augmented minimum variance unbiased estimation based recursive time-marching algorithm for non-linear system identification with the aim to estimate the engineering damage parameters that are the fundamental information necessary for any future decision making for retrofitting/rehabilitation.

A Study on the Appropriate Estimation Method of Oil Pollution Damage for Mariculture Fisheries (유류오염에 의한 양식생물의 적정피해사정방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Young-Joo;Kim, Ki-Soo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2011
  • This paper tries to show the appropriate estimation method of oil pollution damage for mariculture fisheries. The International Oil Pollution Fund 1992(also known as the IOPC Fund 1992) has made up the Claims Manual to assist claimants by giving a general overview of the Fund's obligation to pay compensation. Section III of the Manual provides more specific information to assist claimants in presenting their claims concerning about economic losses in the fisheries, mariculture and fish processing sectors. The paper tries to suggest reform proposals for current etimation method of damages of maricluture fisheries contaminated by oil spillover using the population biology of living resources charaterized with age distribution.