• 제목/요약/키워드: Cycle life prediction

검색결과 268건 처리시간 0.027초

주가지수 파생상품 Life Cycle과 투자자 유형별 거래행태 (Life Cycle of Index Derivatives and Trading Behavior by Investor Types)

  • 오승현;한상범
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.165-190
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    • 2008
  • 선물 및 옵션의 만기결제와 관련된 정보비대칭 상황은 각 투자자 집단의 거래활동에 가시적인 영향을 줄 수 있다. 이러한 가능성을 조사하기 위해서 본 연구는 만기일을 제외한 파생상품의 life cycle을 시간의 경과에 따라 3개의 구간으로 설정한 후, 각 투자자 유형의 거래활동이 각 구간별로 보이는 변화 패턴을 조사하였다. 조사된 KOSPI200 지수 파생상품시장의 투자자 유형별 거래행태는 Foster and Viswanathan(1990)의 전략적 유동성 거래자 모형을 통해서 해석되었다. 한편, 투자자 유형별로 KOSPI200 지수 파생상품의 만기결제와 관련된 정보우위성을 측정 및 비교함으로써 정보비대칭 정도 및 정보거래자의 확인(identification) 문제에 조금 더 접근할 수 있었다. 본 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 투자자 집단의 거래활동은 KOSPI200 지수 파생상품의 life cycle에 따라 3가지 유형(ㄱ자형, L자형, U자형)의 패턴으로 요약된다. ㄱ자형은 만기일 이전 1주일 동안 거래활동을 축소하는 패턴이고, L자형은 만기일 이후 1주일 동안 거래활동을 확대하는 패턴이고, U자형은 만기일 이전 1주일과 만기일 이후 1주일 동안 거래활동을 확대하는 패턴이다. 둘째, 개인투자자는 파생상품 life cycle과 관련하여 대형주 종목군을 대상으로 ㄱ자형 거래패턴(선물만기 기준)과 U자형 거래패턴(옵션 단독만기 기준)을 보인다. 이러한 거래패턴은 Foster and Viswanathan(1990)의 전략적 유동성 거래자 모형의 예상과 일치하였다. 셋째, 파생상품 life cycle과 관련하여 외국인투자자의 거래행태는 부분적으로 전략적 유동성 거래자 모형의 예상과 일치하였으나, 기관투자자의 거래행태는 전략적 유동성 거래자 모형의 예상과 무관하였다. 우리나라 주식시장의 전체 거래규모에서 가장 큰 비중을 차지하는 개인투자자가 파생상품의 만기와 관련하여 전략적으로 유동성 거래를 수행한다는 점은 파생상품의 life cycle이 주식시장에 주기적으로 영향을 주는 중요한 경로임을 의미한다. 본 연구는 이러한 경로를 새로이 규명하였다는 점에서 의미를 가진다.

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저압터빈용 로터강의 이축 피로수명예측법에 관한 연구 (Study of Axial and Torsional Fatigue Life Prediction Method for Low Pressure Turbine Rotor Steels)

  • 현중섭;송기욱;이영신
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제22권12호
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    • pp.149-155
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    • 2005
  • The rotating components such as turbine rotors in service are generally subjected to multiaxial cyclic loading conditions. The prediction of fatigue lift for turbine rotor components under complex multiaxial loading conditions is very important to prevent the fatigue failures in service. In this paper, axial and torsional low cycle fatigue tests were preformed for 3.5NiCrMo steels serviced low pressure turbine rotor of nuclear power plant. Several methods to predict biaxial fatigue life such as Tresca, von Mises and Brown & Miller's critical plane approach were evaluated to correlate the experimental results for serviced NiCrMoV steel. The fracture mode and fatigue characteristics of NiCrMoV steel were discussed based on the results of fatigue tests performed under the axial and torsional test conditions. In particular, the Brown and Miller's critical plane approach was found to best correlate the experimental data with predictions being within a factor of 2.

MFC센서를 이용한 피로수명예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on Prediction of Fatigue Life using MFC Sensors)

  • 이지훈;오동진;김명현
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • 제31권6호
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    • pp.32-36
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    • 2013
  • The large-scale structures have the possibility that there are defects such as cracks due to stress concentration caused by geometric discontinuities in the structure. In this respect, the assessment of fatigue life and the development of structural health monitoring(SHM) are very important. Fatigue design of structure is typically accomplished either using a set of stress cycle (S-N) data obtained from fatigue tests or using the fracture mechanics approach. The stress intensity factor(SIF) is required for the estimation of fatigue crack propagation life from the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) perspective. In this study, Macro Fiber Composie(MFC) sensor for the measurement of SIF of two dimensional cracks is used. The SIF based on the piezoelectric constitutive law and fracture mechanics are calculated. The measured values of the SIF are later used for the prediction of the crack propagation life. In this study, the measured value of the SIF and the fatigue life are compared with the theoretical results.

열화되는 성능 파라메터를 가지는 시스템의 신뢰성 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on Reliability Prediction of System with Degrading Performance Parameter)

  • 김연수;정영배
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.142-148
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    • 2015
  • Due to advancements in technology and manufacturing capability, it is not uncommon that life tests yield no or few failures at low stress levels. In these situations it is difficult to analyse lifetime data and make meaningful inferences about product or system reliability. For some products or systems whose performance characteristics degrade over time, a failure is said to have occurred when a performance characteristic crosses a critical threshold. The measurements of the degradation characteristic contain much useful and credible information about product or system reliability. Degradation measurements of the performance characteristics of an unfailed unit at different times can directly relate reliability measures to physical characteristics. Reliability prediction based on physical performance measures can be an efficient and alternative method to estimate for some highly reliable parts or systems. If the degradation process and the distance between the last measurement and a specified threshold can be established, the remaining useful life is predicted in advance. In turn, this prediction leads to just in time maintenance decision to protect systems. In this paper, we describe techniques for mapping product or system which has degrading performance parameter to the associated classical reliability measures in the performance domain. This paper described a general modeling and analysis procedure for reliability prediction based on one dominant degradation performance characteristic considering pseudo degradation performance life trend model. This pseudo degradation trend model is based on probability modeling of a failure mechanism degradation trend and comparison of a projected distribution to pre-defined critical soft failure point in time or cycle.

저수지 생애주기 유지관리를 위한 성능저하예측 모델 연구 (A Study on the Performance Prediction Model for Life Cycle Maintenance of Reservoir)

  • 이후석;김란하;조중연
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.568-574
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    • 2021
  • 2020년부터 시행된 「지속가능한 기반시설 관리기본법」에 의해 저수지는 체계적인 유지관리와 성능개선 등의 선제적인 관리로 노후화에 따른 생애주기 비용을 최소화하도록 관리해야 한다. 생애주기를 고려한 유지관리를 위해서는 공용기간이 증가함에 따라 지속적인 성능저하에 의해 수명이 종료되는 시점을 생애 주기적인 관점에서 도출하는 것이 필수적이며 이를 위해서 저수지의 성능저하예측 모델 개발이 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 저수지를 주요 복합시설인 제체, 여수로, 취수시설로 구분하고, 생애주기 유지관리를 위한 성능저하예측 모델을 개발하였다. 모델 개발을 위해 농어촌공사의 농업기반시설 시스템(RIMS; Rural Infrastructure Management System)이 관리 중인 유지관리 정보 데이터를 수집하였으며, 수집된 데이터를 통계적으로 분석하여 모델 개발에 활용 가능한 데이터를 선별하고 추세분석을 통해 모델을 개발하였다. 개발된 모델을 통해 저수지가 현행의 유지관리 체계에서 예상되는 기대수명과 미조치시 예상되는 기대수명을 예측하였으며, 현행 유지관리체계에서의 기대수명은 미조시치 기대수명보다 약 네 배가 증대되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 논문을 통해 제안된 모델을 활용하여 향후 저수지의 생애주기를 고려한 운영관리와 유지보수의 의사결정 지원이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

신경회로망을 이용한 AI 2024-T3합금의 피로손상예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Prediction of Fatigue Damage in 2024-T3 Aluminium Alloy Using Neural Networks)

  • 조석수;장득열;주원식
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.168-177
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    • 1999
  • Fatigue damage is the phenomena which is accumulated gradually with loading cycle in material. It is represented by fatigue crack growth rate da/dN and fatigue life ratio $N/N_{f}$. Fracture mechanical parameters estimating large crack growth behavior can calculate quantitative amount of fatigue crack growth resistance in engineering material. But fatigue damage has influence on various load, material and environment. Therefore, In this study, we propose that artificial intelligent fatigue damage model can predicts fatigue crack growth rate da/dN and fatigue life ratio $N/N_{f}$ simultaneously using fracture mechanical and nondestructive parameters.

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도시철도차량의 수명주기비용 분석의 적용에 대한 고찰 (A Study on the Application of Life Cycle Cost Analysis for the Urban Transit Vehicle)

  • 정광우;김철수;안승호;전영석;김재문;한석윤
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.721-732
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    • 2008
  • This paper is concerned with the life-cycle cost(LCC) analysis of the urban transit vehicle. LCC is the core part of analyzing the total cost of acquisition and ownership of a system. LCC in railway industry has been focused on the prediction of investment for railway vehicles. Therefore, to investigate future cost for operation and maintenance in detail, it is necessary to evaluate the LCC of the vehicle systematically. This study is focused on making a fundamental model for estimating the LCC of the urban transit vehicle. To develop a appropriate LCC model, we broadly analyzed specs and standards and compared the LCC model developed in other country. Moreover, this paper proposes strategies to develop an unique LCC model for the urban transit vehicle.

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냉방열원기기의 경제성 평가를 위한 간이계산법의 적용성 검토 (Validating the Applicability of a Simplified Correlation Method for Economic Evaluation of Cooling Plants)

  • 김영섭;김강수
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제14권10호
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    • pp.854-862
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    • 2002
  • In the previous research, a simplified correlation method was developed as an easy prediction tool for comparing energy use of cooling plants. The purpose of this paper is to test the applicability of this method for economic evaluation with two zones of a 20-story commercial building in Seoul. The results of this method were compared with the DOE-2 simulation and actual measured data. Then, Comparisons of life cycle cost were carried out for three types of cooling plants. Testing of one zone showed good agreement of within 10% error in cooling energy use and within 2% error in LCC. But testing of the other zone indicated that the use of this method were invalid when input variables were used beyond its valid range.

터빈 디스크용 스테인리스강의 고온 인장 및 저주기 피로 물성 측정 (Evaluation of high temperature tensile behavior and LCF properties of stainless steel for turbine disks)

  • 임형대;박철규;이광주;임성한;김춘택
    • 한국소성가공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소성가공학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.334-337
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    • 2007
  • Austenitic stainless steel is used as high temperature components such as gas turbine blade and disk because of its good thermal resistance. In the present investigation, tensile and low cycle fatigue(LCF) behavior of stainless steel for turbine disks was studied at wide temperature range $20^{\circ}C\;{\sim}\;750^{\circ}C$. In the tensile tests, it was shown that elastic modulus, yield strength, ultimate tensile strength decreased when temperature increased. The effect on fatigue failure of the parameters such as plastic strain amplitude, stress amplitude and plastic strain energy density was also investigated. Coffin-Manson and Morrow models were used to adjust experimental data and predict the fatigue life behavior at different mean strain values during cyclic loading of high temperature components.

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콘크리트 교량의 생애주기비용 민감도 분석 (A Study on Sensitivity Analysis of Life-Cycle Cost of Concrete Bridges)

  • 구본민;변근주;송하원
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국콘크리트학회 2004년도 추계 학술발표회 제16권2호
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    • pp.773-776
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    • 2004
  • The so-called Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis on reinforced concrete bridge can provide useful information for initial design and maintenance plan of the RC bridge. This paper proposes an LCC prediction equation and a sensitivity analysis method for RC bridges. An LCC equation for the RC bridge which includes initial investment cost, maintenance cost, and demolition cost was derived and verified from the data for design and construction of an RC slab bridge. In order to solve uncertainty problem on actual discount rate and material characteristics in the analysis of LCC of concrete bridges, a sensitivity analysis method on the LCC using the Monte Carlo simulation technique was suggested.

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