• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.91-111
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• 2007

Marketing is said to be a zero sum game i.e. each gain of customer for a firm is always at the expense of some other firm's customers. Therefore in a marketplace churn is a natural occurrence. Churn in Indian telecom market is among the highest in growing telecom markets. By using binary logistics regression analysis based models based covering a sample of 822 Indian telecom subscribers; this paper attempts to examine the determinants of churn. The future churn is found to be dependent on satisfaction level of the customer with the service provider, attitude and loyalty of the customer variables, intended churn (i.e. intention to churn) and current loyalty (defined as intention to recommend) and distraction (i.e. intention to experiment).

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.111-126
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• 2020

Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.23-36
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• 2013

In this study, we investigate how churn customers (who play a central connector or broker role) affect other customers' churn in their call networks with ego-network analysis using call data of a mobile telecom company in Korea. As a result of investigating Reciprocal Network, we found a relationship of attrition among churn customers. Churn provokers who influence other customers' attrition exist in customer churn networks. The characteristics of churn provokers is that they play a central connector and broker role in their groups. The proportion of churn provokers increases and the churn provoker's influence increases because the network is a reciprocal one.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.21-42
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• 2005

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) is a corporate marketing strategy maintaining and managing customers. And with CRM companies maximize the customer's value through a series of processes of new customer retention, VIP customer retention, customer value increase, potential customer activation, and customers for lifetime by collecting the customer information and taking advantage of it effectively. In particular, as the competitive environment is changing rapidly and getting more intense, maintaining the customer retention through customer churn management becomes more important in order to increase the customer value for maximizing the company's profit and to build up the relationship with customers. For example, the financial industry has managed the customer churn with the concept of customer segmentation. Recently the customer retention and churn management is becoming increasingly important in all business fields as well as financial industry since the companies expect the effect of preventing the customer churn by identifying characteristics of customers. However, despite the increasing interest and importance of the management of the customer churn, not many of studies are systematically executed by analyzing the data of customer churn. In this study we analyze the actual data of CRM activities for the customer retention, specifically the data of TV home-shopping. By doing so, we hope to identify the differences of demographic attributes and transaction specific characteristics in consumer behaviors between the churning customer and the retained customers. In addition, we try to find out the variables which can impact the churning of the customers and to predict the churn rate of individual customer through our proposed model of customer churn. In the end, based on our findings we suggest the possible marketing strategies for TV home-shopping companies.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.17-27
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• 2010

The customer churn and the forecast of customer churn have been important research topics for a long time in the academic domain of customer relationship management. The customer value is studied to construct a gap model based on dual customer values; a basic description of customer value is given, then the gaps between products and services in different periods for the customers and companies are analyzed. The main factors that influence the perceived customer value are analyzed to define the "recognized value gap" and a gap model for the dual customer value is constructed. Based on the dual customer gap a con-ceptual model to determine potential churn customers is proposed in the paper.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.23 no.8
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• pp.190-198
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• 2023

To enhance customer satisfaction for higher profits, an e-commerce sector can establish a continuous relationship and acquire new customers. Utilize machine-learning models to analyse their customer's behavioural evidence to produce their competitive advantage to the e-commerce platform by helping to improve overall satisfaction. These models will forecast customers who will churn and churn causes. Forecasts are used to build unique business strategies and services offers. This work is intended to develop a machine-learning model that can accurately forecast retainable customers of the entire e-commerce customer data. Developing predictive models classifying different imbalanced data effectively is a major challenge in collected data and machine learning algorithms. Build a machine learning model for solving class imbalance and forecast customers. The satisfaction accuracy is used for this research as evaluation metrics. This paper aims to enable to evaluate the use of different machine learning models utilized to forecast satisfaction. For this research paper are selected three analytical methods come from various classifications of learning. Classifier Selection, the efficiency of various classifiers like Random Forest, Logistic Regression, SVM, and Gradient Boosting Algorithm. Models have been used for a dataset of 8000 records of e-commerce websites and apps. Results indicate the best accuracy in determining satisfaction class with both gradient-boosting algorithm classifications. The results showed maximum accuracy compared to other algorithms, including Gradient Boosting Algorithm, Support Vector Machine Algorithm, Random Forest Algorithm, and logistic regression Algorithm. The best model developed for this paper to forecast satisfaction customers and accuracy achieve 88 %.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.139-158
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• 2002

As the telecommunication market becomes mature in Korea, severe competition has already begun on the market. While service providers struggled for the last couple of years to acquire as many new customers as possible, nowadays they are making more efforts on retaining the current customers. The churn management by analyzing customers' demographic and transactional data becomes one of the key customer retention strategies which most companies pursue. However, the customer data analysis has still remained at the basic level in the industry, even though it has considerable potential as a tool for understanding customer behavior. This paper develops several churn prediction models using data mining techniques such as logistic regression, decision trees, and neural networks. For model-building, real data were used which were collected from one of the major telecommunication companies in Korea. This paper explores various ways of comparing model performance, while the hit ratio was mainly focused in the previous research. The comparison criteria used in this study include gain ratio, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics, distribution of the predicted values, and explanation ability. This paper also suggest some guidance for model selection in applying data mining techniques.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.187-190
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• 2003

Since the early 1980s, the concept of relationship management in marketing area has gained its importance. Acquiring and retaining the most profitable customers are serious concerns of a company to perform more targeted marketing campaigns. For effective CRM (Customer Relationship Management), it is important to gather information on customer value. Many researches have been performed to calculate customer value based on CLV (Customer Lifetime Value). It, however, has some limitations. It is difficult to consider the churn of customers, because the previous prediction models have focused mainly on expected future cash flow derived from customers'past profit contribution. In this paper we suggest a CLV model considering past profit contribution, potential benefit, and churn probability of a customer. We also cover a framework for analyzing customer value and segmenting customers based on their value. Customer value is classified into three categories: current value, potential value and customer loyalty. Customers are segmented according to the three categories of customer value. A case study on calculating customer value of a wireless communication company will be illustrated.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.4706-4724
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• 2020

With various structured data, such as the company size, loan balance, and savings accounts, the voice of customer (VOC), which is text data containing contact history and counseling details was analyzed in this study. To analyze unstructured data, the term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) analysis, semantic network analysis, sentiment analysis, and a convolutional neural network (CNN) were implemented. A performance comparison of the models revealed that the predictive model using the CNN provided the best performance with regard to predictive power, followed by the model using the TF-IDF, and then the model using semantic network analysis. In particular, a character-level CNN and a word-level CNN were developed separately, and the character-level CNN exhibited better performance, according to an analysis for the Korean language. Moreover, a systematic selection model for optimal text mining techniques was proposed, suggesting which analytical technique is appropriate for analyzing text data depending on the context. This study also provides evidence that the results of previous studies, indicating that individual customers leave when their loyalty and switching cost are low, are also applicable to corporate customers and suggests that VOC data indicating customers' needs are very effective for predicting their behavior.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.69-77
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• 2019

As information technology advances, the penetration of smart devices connected to the Internet, such as smart phone and tablet PC, has rapidly expanded, and as sensor prices have fallen the Internet of Things has begun to be introduced in the industry. Today's industry is rapidly changing and evolving, requiring companies to respond to the new paradigm of business. In this situation, companies need to actively manage and maintain customer relationships in order to acquire loyal customers who bring them a high return. The purpose of this study is to suggest a method to manage customer relationship using real time IoT data including IoT product usage data, customer characteristics and transaction data. This study proposes a method of segmenting customers through RFM analysis and transition index analysis. In addition, a real-time monitoring through control charts is used to identify abnormalities in product use and suggest ways of differentiating marketing for each group. In the study, 44 samples were classified as 9 churn customers, 10 potential customers, and 25 active customers. This study suggested ways to induce active customers by providing after-sales benefit for product reuse to a group of churn customers and to promote the advantages or necessity of using the product by setting the goal of increasing the frequency of use to a group of potential customers. Finally, since the active customer group is a loyal customer, this study proposed an one-on-one marketing to improve product satisfaction.