• Title/Summary/Keyword: Curve Estimation Regression

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The Simulation of Nutrients using SWAT Model and its Application to Estimate Delivery Ratio (SWAT 모형을 이용한 영양물질 모의 및 유달율 추정에의 적용)

  • Choi, Daegyu;Shin, Hyun Suk;Yoon, Young Sam;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2009
  • The estimation of delivery ratio is a essential part of Korean Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL) procedure which needs a number of observed stream flow and pollutants data. If observed data were not sufficient, researchers have to find other alternatives. One of them is to make indirect data by using watershed models, such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) and so on. In this study, indirect daily data was made by using SWAT model. To build the Byongseong-SWAT model accurately, crop cultures are reflected by handling the MGT.file in SWAT model. Especially, mass of manure and schedule of crop culture are inputted through investigating domestic research papers as well as fieldwork. After calibrating SWAT model in comparison with the 22-years flow and pollutants observed outlet data, the delivery ratio of Byongseong watershed is calculated by using daily simulated data during 2004-2007. Empirical equations for delivery ratio through multi-regression analysis are developed by using meteorological and physical factors such as flow, watershed area, stream length, catchment slope, curve number (CN) and subbasin's pollutant discharge loads.

Extraction of Time-varying Failure Rate for Power Distribution System Equipment (배전계통 설비의 시변 고장률 추출)

  • Moon, Jong-Fil;Lee, Hee-Tae;Kim, Jae-Chul;Park, Chang-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.548-556
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    • 2005
  • Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

Correlation of Peak Time Shift in Blood Pressure Waveform and PPG Based on Compliance Change Analysis in RLC Windkessel Model

  • Choi, Wonsuk;Cho, Jin-Ho
    • Current Optics and Photonics
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    • v.1 no.5
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    • pp.529-537
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    • 2017
  • We explored how changes in blood vessel compliance affected the systolic rise time (SRT) of the maximum blood pressure (BP) peak wave and the diastolic fall time (DFT) of the minimal BP peak wave, compared to photoplethysmograpic (PPG) parameters, using a two-compartment, second-order, arterial Windkessel model. We employed earlier two-compartment Windkessel models and the components thereof to construct equivalent blood vessel circuits, and reproduced BP waveforms using PSpice technology. The SRT and DFT values were obtained via circuit simulation, considering variations in compliance (the dominant influence on blood vessel parameters attributable to BP changes). And then performed regression analysis to identify how compliance affected the SRT and DFT. We compared the SRTs and DFTs of BP waves to the PPG values by reference to BP changes in each subject. We confirmed that the time-shift propensities of BP waves and the PPG data were highly consistent. However, the time shifts differed significantly among subjects. These simulation and experimental results allowed us to construct an initial trend curve of individual BP peak time (measured via wrist PPG evaluations at three arm positions) that facilitated accurate individual BP estimations.

Development of Korean Standard Vertical Design Spectrum Based on the Domestic and Overseas Intra-plate Earthquake Records (국내외 판내부 지진기록을 이용한 한국 표준수직설계스펙트럼의 개발)

  • Kim, Jae Kwan;Kim, Jung Han;Lee, Jin Ho;Heo, Tae Min
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.413-424
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    • 2016
  • The vertical design spectrum for Korea, which is known to belong to an intra-plate region, is developed from the ground motion records of the earthquakes occurred in Korea and overseas intra-plate regions. From the statistical analysis of the vertical response spectra, a mean plus one standard deviation spectrum in lognormal distribution is obtained. Regression analysis is performed on this curve to determine the shape of spectrum including transition periods. The developed design spectrum is valid for the estimation both spectral acceleration and displacement. The ratio of vertical to horizontal response spectrum for each record is calculated. Statistical analysis of the ratios rendered the vertical to horizontal ratio (V/H ratio). Subsequently the ratio between the peak vertical ground acceleration to the horizontal one is obtained.

Estimating of Transplanting Period of Highland Kimchi Cabbage Using UAV Imagery (무인비행체 영상을 활용한 고랭지배추 정식시기 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung Do;Park, Chan Won;So, Kyu Ho;Kim, Ki Deog;Na, Sang Il
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.6
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2017
  • Growth monitoring of highland Kimchi cabbage is very important to respond the fluctuations in supply and demand from middle of August to early September in Korea. For evaluating Kimchi cabbage growth, it needs to classify the transplanting period of Kimchi cabbage, preferentially. This study was conducted to estimate the transplanting period of highland Kimchi cabbage from 2015 to 2016 in the main production area of highland Kimchi cabbage, Anbandegi, Maebongsan, and Gwinemi. Correlation between NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from UAV images and days after transplanting of Kimchi cabbage was high in early transplanting period. But because the growth curve of Kimchi cabbage showed S-type, joint use of multi-temporal linear regression equation for estimation of transplanting period was more suitable. Using application of these equations at Anbandegi, Maebongsan, and Gwinemi, we made the map of transplanting periods of highland Kimchi cabbage. Generally, highland Kimchi cabbage is harvested in sixty days later since transplanting. As a result, we could estimate the harvest time and area of highland Kimchi cabbage.

Development of Monthly Hydrological Cycle Assessment System Using Dynamic Water Balance Model Based on Budyko Framework (Budyko 프레임워크 기반 동적 물수지 모형을 활용한 월 단위 물순환 평가체계 개발)

  • Kim, Kyeung;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang-Min;Lee, Hyunji;Kim, Sinae;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.71-83
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    • 2022
  • In this study, an indicator and assessment system for evaluating the monthly hydrological cycle was prepared using simple factors such as the landuse status of the watershed and topographic characteristics to the dynamic water balance model (DWBM) based on the Budyko framework. The parameters a1 of DWBM are introduced as hydrologic cycle indicators. An indicator estimation regression model was developed using watershed characteristics data for the introduced indicator, and an assessment system was prepared through K-means cluster analysis. The hydrological cycle assessment system developed in this study can assess the hydrological cycle with simple data such as land use, CN, and watershed slope, so it can quickly assess changes in hydrological cycle factors in the past and present. Because of this advantage is expected that the developed assessment system can predict changes in the hydrological cycle and use an auxiliary tool for policymaking.

Improving the Accuracy of Early Diagnosis of Thyroid Nodule Type Based on the SCAD Method

  • Shahraki, Hadi Raeisi;Pourahmad, Saeedeh;Paydar, Shahram;Azad, Mohsen
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1861-1864
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    • 2016
  • Although early diagnosis of thyroid nodule type is very important, the diagnostic accuracy of standard tests is a challenging issue. We here aimed to find an optimal combination of factors to improve diagnostic accuracy for distinguishing malignant from benign thyroid nodules before surgery. In a prospective study from 2008 to 2012, 345 patients referred for thyroidectomy were enrolled. The sample size was split into a training set and testing set as a ratio of 7:3. The former was used for estimation and variable selection and obtaining a linear combination of factors. We utilized smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) logistic regression to achieve the sparse optimal combination of factors. To evaluate the performance of the estimated model in the testing set, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized. The mean age of the examined patients (66 male and 279 female) was $40.9{\pm}13.4years$ (range 15- 90 years). Some 54.8% of the patients (24.3% male and 75.7% female) had benign and 45.2% (14% male and 86% female) malignant thyroid nodules. In addition to maximum diameters of nodules and lobes, their volumes were considered as related factors for malignancy prediction (a total of 16 factors). However, the SCAD method estimated the coefficients of 8 factors to be zero and eliminated them from the model. Hence a sparse model which combined the effects of 8 factors to distinguish malignant from benign thyroid nodules was generated. An optimal cut off point of the ROC curve for our estimated model was obtained (p=0.44) and the area under the curve (AUC) was equal to 77% (95% CI: 68%-85%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for this model were 70%, 72%, 71% and 76%, respectively. An increase of 10 percent and a greater accuracy rate in early diagnosis of thyroid nodule type by statistical methods (SCAD and ANN methods) compared with the results of FNA testing revealed that the statistical modeling methods are helpful in disease diagnosis. In addition, the factor ranking offered by these methods is valuable in the clinical context.

Estimation of a Nationwide Statistics of Hernia Operation Applying Data Mining Technique to the National Health Insurance Database (데이터마이닝 기법을 이용한 건강보험공단의 수술 통계량 근사치 추정 -허니아 수술을 중심으로-)

  • Kang, Sung-Hong;Seo, Seok-Kyung;Yang, Yeong-Ja;Lee, Ae-Kyung;Bae, Jong-Myon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.433-437
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: The aim of this study is to develop a methodology for estimating a nationwide statistic for hernia operations with using the claim database of the Korea Health Insurance Cooperation (KHIC). Methods: According to the insurance claim procedures, the claim database was divided into the electronic data interchange database (EDI_DB) and the sheet database (Paper_DB). Although the EDI_DB has operation and management codes showing the facts and kinds of operations, the Paper_DB doesn't. Using the hernia matched management code in the EDI_DB, the cases of hernia surgery were extracted. For drawing the potential cases from the Paper_DB, which doesn't have the code, the predictive model was developed using the data mining technique called SEMMA. The claim sheets of the cases that showed a predictive probability of an operation over the threshold, as was decided by the ROC curve, were identified in order to get the positive predictive value as an index of usefulness for the predictive model. Results: Of the claim databases in 2004, 14,386 cases had hernia related management codes with using the EDI system. For fitting the models with applying the data mining technique, logistic regression was chosen rather than the neural network method or the decision tree method. From the Paper_DB, 1,019 cases were extracted as potential cases. Direct review of the sheets of the extracted cases showed that the positive predictive value was 95.3%. Conclusions: The results suggested that applying the data mining technique to the claim database in the KHIC for estimating the nationwide surgical statistics would be useful from the aspect of execution and cost-effectiveness.

Books Location Estimation System by Image Processing (영상처리를 이용한 도서 위치 추정 시스템)

  • Cho Dong-Uk
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.12B no.1 s.97
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we will show that a control search methodology is a alternative method of a sequential search which is difficult in finding books for arrangement at library or a bookstore when books are out of place. To solve the problem of the sequential search, we apply a edge operator and the Hough Transform to boundary of a taken photograph image book. We generate histogram by a projected image from boundary range of selected books and select title areas from this and possible areas which are a character number of title, authors, a publishing company and an array sequence. Finally, we can select the final possible area of a book location by a curve fitting and a regression line extraction, and show utility through experiment.

Development of Long Term Flow Duration Curves for the Management of Total Maximum Daily Loads - in the Nakdong River Basin - (수질오염총량관리 단위유역 장기유황곡선 구축 -낙동강수계를 대상으로-)

  • Kim, Gyeong hoon;Kwon, Heon gak;Ahn, Jung min;Kim, Sanghun;Im, Tae hyo;Shin, Dong seok;Jung, Kang-Young
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.939-953
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    • 2017
  • For the development of flow duration curves for the management of 41 Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) units of the Nakdong River basin, first, an equation for estimating daily flow rates as well as the level of correlation (correlation and determination coefficients) was extrapolated through regression analysis of discrete (Ministry of Environment) and continuous (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation) measurement data. The equation derived from the analysis was used to estimate daily flow rates in order to develop flow duration curves for each TMDL unit. By using the equation, the annual flow duration curves and flow curves, for the entire period and for each TMDL unit of the basin, were developed to be demonstrated in this research. Standard flow rates (abundant-, ordinary-, low- and drought flows) for major flow duration periods were calculated based on the annual flow duration curves. Then, the flow rates, based on percentile ranks of exceedance probabilities (5, 25, 50, 75, and 95%), were calculated according to the flow duration curves for the entire period and are suggested in this research. These results can be used for feasibility assessment of the set values of primary and secondary standard flow rates for each river system, which are derived from complicated models. In addition, they will also be useful for the process of implementing TMDL management, including evaluation of the target level of water purity based on load duration curves.