• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.29-36
• /
• 2022

This study uses the panel probit model to investigate and evaluate the relationship between exchange rate regimes, political stability, and carbon dioxide during currency crises. To understand currency crisis times, we study a panel dataset of seven South Asian nations that contain annual observations from 1996 to 2020. Furthermore, we created the EMPI exchange market pressure indicator to detect crises. Our results strongly suggested that fixed exchange rate is negatively associated with currency crises, with good regulatory quality and better effective governments. Simultaneously, the floating exchange rate is positively related to the currency crises in those countries where the rule of law has less adequately flowed. However, CO₂, exports, and interest rates are buoyantly associated with crises. The floating exchange rate, the rule of law, exports, and interest rate are associated positively and contribute more prone to the crisis episodes. Negatively associated variables contributed less amid crises episodes: fixed exchange rate regime, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality. Meanwhile, CO₂ has a positive relationship with a currency crisis and contributes more likelihood to the probability of a currency crisis. Countries that adopted the fixed exchange rates with effective governments and regulatory quality faced more minor currency crises.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.23 no.5
• /
• pp.129-144
• /
• 2019

Purpose - Recent empirical studies have reached mixed results on the effects of financial liberalization and currency crises. We argue that this relationship is likely to depend both on whether controls are primarily on the degrees of financial liberalization and on the stability of the government. Using the disaggregated data on financial liberalization recently developed by Abiad et al (2010) for a sample of 30 emerging countries over the period 1995-2015, we attempt to investigate the political economy determinants of currency crises. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the relationship between financial liberalization and currency crises for emerging market economies. This study employs the existing theoretical framework to identify the disaggregate level for financial liberalization across countries. Using a multivariate logit model, this study attempts to estimate the interrelationship among financial liberalization, government stability and currency crises complemented by a case study of South Korea. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: we find strong support for the proposition that more liberalized financial institutions are positively associated with the probability of currency crises especially under less stable governments, but reduce the risks of currency crises especially for more stable governments. We also examine the role of financial systems with the case of South Korea after Asian financial crises and the results are further supported and consistent with the empirical findings. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on the economic factors across countries. This paper instead attempts to evaluate the effects of financial liberalization and currency crises by incorporating political considerations with newly developed dataset on financial liberalization, which are essential to the understanding of the causes of currency crises.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.23 no.7
• /
• pp.113-127
• /
• 2019

Purpose - This paper investigates whether financial crises could be the indicators of capital outflow waves or vice versa in Korea. Korea has experienced two severe financial crises, which are the Asian Crisis and the global financial crisis. Although there were many variables associated with these two remarkable events, one notable variable was gross capital outflows, which had significantly increased around them. Motivated by existing literature which built theoretical frameworks explaining the relationship between capital flight and financial crises, we examine the empirical evidence for this relationship. Design/methodology - We use panel data from 61 countries including Korea from 1980 to 2009 to study the associations between capital flight and diverse financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises. To be specific, we use the complementary log-log model to see whether capital outflow waves are reliable indicators for domestic financial crises. Findings - The results show, first, that banking, currency, and inflation crises are associated with capital flight. Second, debt crises are also associated with capital flight, but the result is not robust to different specifications. And, third, the positive associations between capital flight and crises are mainly driven by banking flows rather than FDI and portfolio flows. Originality/value - This paper is one of a few studies that investigates domestic (not foreign) investors' behavior during financial turmoil. Furthermore, theoretical studies which provide contradictory explanations on the movements of gross capital outflows during financial crises emphasizes the importance of empirical evidence in this paper.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.24 no.7
• /
• pp.38-53
• /
• 2020

Purpose - A financial crash triggers asset fire sales by foreign investors and, as a consequence, the price of domestic assets severely decreases. Domestic investors take advantage of these low prices by replacing foreign assets with domestic assets, which helps to alleviate the liquidity shock caused by foreigners. However, is the amount of capital retrenchment by domestic investors sufficient to protect the Korean economy from capital stop by foreign investors during financial crisis? This paper answers this question and suggests the implications of this phenomenon for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We estimate the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and various financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises using the complementary log-log model. Specifically, we use data of gross capital flows to differentiate between the role of foreign and domestic investors in financial markets. Capital stop and retrenchment designate a sharp decrease in gross capital inflows and outflows, respectively. Findings - Capital stop is significantly associated with financial crises, especially currency and debt crises. This implies that increased risk aversion during times of financial turmoil encourages foreign investors to retrench their investments, worsening liquidity shocks. Conversely, capital retrenchment is not significantly associated with such crises. The results show that, although financial crises reduce gross capital outflows, the reduction is not as large as that with capital inflows. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, this study investigates how domestic investors behave during times of financial distress by studying gross capital flows-not net capital flows. Second, we concentrate on sharp changes in capital flows during crises. Third, we examine the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and financial crises in general, not specific events.

• 사회경제평론
• /
• no.38
• /
• pp.241-259
• /
• 2012

This paper reviews four different kinds of currency crisis models proposed to explain the Korean crisis of 1997 to examine which model is more relevant to explain the Korean crisis of 2008. According to the author's investigation, the 'Frenkel-Neftci' cycle is more relevant model to interpret the Korean crisis of 2008. In 2008, spreads opened due to, first, high interest rate policy by the Korean government aimed to suppress real estate price increase, and, second, the expectation about exchange rate appreciation, and thirdly stock market returns after recovering the crisis. Then the international capital market catastrophe due to the subprime crises produced the sudden change of expectation of the market participants. Huge capital outflows resulted from the credit crunch in the international capital markets, and the possibility of exchange rate depreciation by the Korean government to promote exports in the course of the global recession.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.87-96
• /
• 1999

Korea, one of the members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), has been one of the fastest growing countries in the world since World War Ⅱ. However, Korea has recently suffered from an economic crisis which has been mainly attributed to a fluctuating foreign currency rate. The future of Korea relies on how the country prepares and copes with the crises. There have been enormous effort to solve current economic crisis. However, preparation to the anticipated crisis is much more important than solving problems after the crisis. Recently, the virtual crisis preparation team approach appears to be one of the effective alternatives to cope with various crises. The objectives of this study ale to (1) show that crisis preparation is very important factor for the Korean government to one with the current and future crises; (2) to prove that the virtual crisis preparation team is one of the better alternatives to solve crisis; (3) to suggest a virtual crisis preparation team model can be adapted to the Korean situation.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.45-81
• /
• 2023

This paper examines how Korean economy has been asymmetrically changed after economics crises. The three crises during the last three decades, covid19, global financial crisis, and currency crisis, have deteriorated the economic inequalities of Korea in various ways. First, manufacture industry has been affected larger by economic crises, but recovered fast. The shocks in service sector were small but persist longer or were permanent. Second, although the covid19 spreaded out more to the capital area, the negative economic shock was greater in the non-capital region. That is, the crisis in the capital region transferred or amplified to the other region. Third, the inequality between permanent and temporary workers became worse after crises. Fourth, the sluggish small business growth problem became more serious during the covid19. In order to overcome the industrial and labor inequality, it is desirable to government strategy for economic development from focusing on high value-added industry to a balanced growth for all industry and region. To this end, governemt support should be asymmetric. That is, it should focus on indirect support such as regulatory reforms in the high value-added and private-led industries, and, for small business related service sector and non-capital region which have had limited opportunity of renovation and growth, the more active effort of government and government-driven gowth strategy would be desirable.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.25-39
• /
• 2016

Asset prices decline sharply and stock markets collapse when financial crisis happens. Recently we have encountered more frequent financial crises than ever. 1998 currency crisis and 2008 global financial crisis triggered academic researches on early warning systems that aim to detect the symptom of financial crisis in advance. This study proposes a risk recovery index for detection of good opportunities from financial market instability. We use SVM classifier algorithms to separate recovery period from unstable financial market data. Input variables are KOSPI index and V-KOSPI200 index. Our SVM algorithms show highly accurate forecasting results on testing data as well as training data. Risk recovery index is derived from our SVM-trained outputs. We develop a trading system that utilizes the suggested risk recovery index. The trading result records very high profit, that is, its annual return runs to 121%.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.19-43
• /
• 2016

This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.96-114
• /
• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.