• 제목/요약/키워드: Currency

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Dollarization in North Korea: Evidence from a Survey of North Korean Refugees

  • Mun, Sung Min;Jung, Seung Ho
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.81-100
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    • 2017
  • This study measures the degree of dollarization in North Korea using results from a survey of 231 North Korean refugees. Specifically, we compare foreign currency use of households as both store-of-value substitutes (i.e., asset substitution) and transaction substitutes (i.e., currency substitution) before and after the confiscatory currency reform of 2009. The degree of dollarization has advanced since the currency reform in terms of both asset and currency substitutions. Survey results also indicate that the Chinese yuan is frequently used in the Sino-North Korean border area, whereas the US dollar is predominantly used in non-border areas. Furthermore, foreign currency increasingly serves as a medium of exchange not only for large transactions but also for smaller transactions, such as food purchases.

장기소비 위험을 이용한 통화포트폴리오 수익률에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Long-Run Consumption Risk in Foreign Currency Risk Premia)

  • 유원석;손삼호
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권10호
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R2, relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R2, relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

Impact of CO2 Emissions, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Political Stability on Currency Crises: Evidence from South Asian Countries

  • ULLLAH, Zia;FEN, Tan Xiao;TUNIO, Fayaz Hussain;ULLAH, Imran
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2022
  • This study uses the panel probit model to investigate and evaluate the relationship between exchange rate regimes, political stability, and carbon dioxide during currency crises. To understand currency crisis times, we study a panel dataset of seven South Asian nations that contain annual observations from 1996 to 2020. Furthermore, we created the EMPI exchange market pressure indicator to detect crises. Our results strongly suggested that fixed exchange rate is negatively associated with currency crises, with good regulatory quality and better effective governments. Simultaneously, the floating exchange rate is positively related to the currency crises in those countries where the rule of law has less adequately flowed. However, CO2, exports, and interest rates are buoyantly associated with crises. The floating exchange rate, the rule of law, exports, and interest rate are associated positively and contribute more prone to the crisis episodes. Negatively associated variables contributed less amid crises episodes: fixed exchange rate regime, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality. Meanwhile, CO2 has a positive relationship with a currency crisis and contributes more likelihood to the probability of a currency crisis. Countries that adopted the fixed exchange rates with effective governments and regulatory quality faced more minor currency crises.

Analysis of Dollarization Hysteresis among North Korean Consumers

  • Jooyung Lee
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.279-304
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    • 2022
  • This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of North Korean consumer payment instruments through a questionnaire survey of 292 North Korean defectors. In the 2010s, it was found that the payment experience ratio of domestic currency cash and grain decreased, while the payment experience ratio of foreign currency cash increased. The use of foreign currency reached a stage where it was spread not only as a store of value but also as a medium of exchange. However, the most frequently used payment instrument by North Korean consumers was still domestic currency cash. By region, in inland urban areas both domestic currency cash and U.S. dollars are used and in the North Korea-China border region both domestic currency cash and Chinese yuan are used, while in inland rural areas dollarization does not occur because both domestic currency cash and grain are used. Meanwhile, despite the stable price trend during 2013-2019, the dollarization hysteresis effect is appearing, and both the purchasing power risk theory and the network externality theory are considered to have explanatory power for the cause. The results of this paper suggest that as dollarization is intensifying, it is expected that more costs such as shortages of commodities will be incurred than in the past if North Korea's de-dollarization policy is reimplemented. Also, in the case of domestic currency cards, which the North Korean authorities introduced in 2015 as part of a means of financial reform, this paper suggests that it may continue to be difficult for domestic currency cards to normalize official finance under the dollarization hysteresis.

A Study on How to Operate or Upgrade a Mobile Community Currency System to Revitalize the Local Economy -Centering on Community Currencies in Seoul and Gyeong-gi Metropolitan Areas-

  • kim, Myung-hee;Ryu, Ki-hwan
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.152-159
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    • 2021
  • Small local businesses such as corner shops and street markets have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and declining consumption. A community currency is a local currency that can be used to exchange for one of the local currencies within an online community. Community currencies can be effective not only in supporting small businesses, but also in helping the local economy more vibrant, benefiting consumers in the community. An important goal of Community Currency is to foster a vibrant local economy by building mutually beneficial relationships between local business owners and customers. The purpose of this study was to identify how the existing community currencies of participating SMEs and self-employed in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do metropolitan areas contributed to commercial revitalization by category and to suggest a new or better approach to community currency operation. It also focused on presenting the best solutions for the future direction of mobile community currencies, measures that are better than current currency operations, revitalize the community and develop the economy.

The Role of Vehicle Currency in ASEAN-EU Trade: A Double-Aggregation Method

  • BAO, Ho Hoang Gia;LE, Hoang Phong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2021
  • This study is the first to scrutinize how real effective exchange rate, together with the vehicle currency exchange rate, asymmetrically influences the total trade balance between ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and the EU (European Union). This research employs quarterly data between 2000Q1 and 2018Q1, which is derived from several sources. We introduce a method for constructing the double-aggregated real effective exchange rate between ASEAN and the EU that captures the roles of all their currencies. Moreover, we propose the formula to compute vehicle currency exchange rate to assess the importance of vehicle currency in ASEAN-EU trade. Additionally, as asymmetrical impacts of exchange rate on trade balance are well documented by current studies, we employ Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2014) to analyze the impacts of currency depreciation as well as appreciation in detail. The findings confirm the prominence of USD as vehicle currency in ASEAN-EU trade. Both depreciation and appreciation of ASEAN's currencies against USD can foster ASEAN's trade balance in the long run. Short-run asymmetrical impacts as well as J-curve effect are found in the vehicle currency models only. The results are robust for the cases of EU-28 and EU-27.

An Analysis of the Status of Local Currency (Daedeok e-Loom) for the Vitality of Local Commercial Areas and an Empirical Study on the Direction of Development

  • Tae-Chang RYU
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제21권12호
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    • pp.127-140
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: In a situation where the local economy and alley economy are stagnant, efforts to revitalize the role of small business owners need a virtuous cycle system through consumers' consumption power, not just cash support. Research design, data, and methodology: The study site focuses on Daedeok-gu, the first to introduce local currency as a policy. In the case of the store survey, 254 stores out of 300 stores registered with local currency were analyzed, and the consumer survey was conducted on 1,394 out of 1,500 local people using local currency. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS. Result: As a result of time-series checking whether local economic activities are carried out smoothly due to the nature of the local currency, the average daily sales of Daedeok-gu increased by 388,980won compared to 2019. This proved through empirical research in the region that local currency played a priming role in bringing opportunities and rehabilitation to the local commercial districts and small business owners. Conclusions: In the monetary function of simply buying and selling value through payment, points supported as incentives can be used as local currency while inducing direct participation in solving social problems, and the concurrent effect of causing problem-solving and regional economic vitality began to sprout.

디지털화폐와 화폐 변천과정에 관한 문헌적 연구: 동적패턴, CBDC, 리브라를 중심으로 (A Literature Study on Digital Currency and Historical Developments of Money: Dynamic Pattern in Currency, Central Bank Digital Currency and Libra)

  • 김의석
    • 한국전자거래학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.109-126
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구에서는 디지털화폐 및 화폐변천과 관련된 문헌들에 대한 내용분석과 분석적 서술을 통해 디지털화폐의 특성을 알아보고, 시대에 따라 변화된 '화폐형태'의 동적인 모습과 그에 따른 패러다임변화를 가져오게 된 사회적 배경을 밝혀내고자 했다. 분석결과 새로운 화폐 출현 초기에는 민간에서의 다양한 시도와 함께 시장 중심의 자율적 통화조정이 이루어졌고, 이후 이윤과 권력의 국가독점을 위하여 정부 중심의 중앙 집중 통화 관리와 조정이 이루어졌다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 디지털화폐는 패러다임 변화를 가져올 새로운 화폐형태의 등장으로 볼 수 있다. 중앙은행이 발행하는 CBDC는 직접형과 간접형 모델이 있으며, 관련 산업 생태계의 변화가 예상되는 만큼 국가나 기업의 전략적 접근이 필요할 것으로 보인다. 민간주도형 디지털화폐인 페이스북 리브라는 가격변동을 최소화하여 화폐로서의 기능에 적합하도록 설계된 스테이블코인으로 실제 상용화에 성공할 경우 전 세계 금융산업에 혁명적 변화를 가져올 것으로 전망된다.

일본정부의 암호화폐(Crypto currency)에 대한 최근 정책 동향과 시사점 (Policy Trends and Issues on Crypto Currency of Japanese Government)

  • 김현정
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제22권10호
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    • pp.1398-1404
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    • 2018
  • 블록체인(Blockchain) 기술은 예기치 않은 문제에 대한 해결책을 제시 할 수 있다. 현대 사회에서 가치 영역은 다양 해지고 있다. 암호화폐는 기존 통화가 작동하지 못했던 영역을 대체하고 있다. 일본 정부는 2017년 4 월부터 2016년까지 송금 법 개정을 통해 암호화폐 대표코인인 비트코인(Bitcoin)을 공식 통화로 인정하고 최근 관련 규제 정책을 주도 해 왔다. 이 논문은 암호화폐 통화 시장과 관련하여 국제사회에서 정책을 주도하고 있는 일본 정부의 정책 전략을 검토한다. 이에 본 논문에서는 IT전략특명소위원회가 일본 정부의 암호화폐 관련 정책 및 제도를 조정해 나아가는 과정과 기구의 역할을 분석하였다. 더불어 일본 내에서 암호화폐 및 블록체인 관련 세재의 개정 및 규제 조직의 수립 과정 그리고 관련한 보충 제도에 대해 고찰하였다.

Financial Liberalization, Government Stability, and Currency Crises - Some Evidence from South Korea and Emerging Market Economies

  • Chiu, Eric M.P.
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제23권5호
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    • pp.129-144
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - Recent empirical studies have reached mixed results on the effects of financial liberalization and currency crises. We argue that this relationship is likely to depend both on whether controls are primarily on the degrees of financial liberalization and on the stability of the government. Using the disaggregated data on financial liberalization recently developed by Abiad et al (2010) for a sample of 30 emerging countries over the period 1995-2015, we attempt to investigate the political economy determinants of currency crises. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the relationship between financial liberalization and currency crises for emerging market economies. This study employs the existing theoretical framework to identify the disaggregate level for financial liberalization across countries. Using a multivariate logit model, this study attempts to estimate the interrelationship among financial liberalization, government stability and currency crises complemented by a case study of South Korea. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: we find strong support for the proposition that more liberalized financial institutions are positively associated with the probability of currency crises especially under less stable governments, but reduce the risks of currency crises especially for more stable governments. We also examine the role of financial systems with the case of South Korea after Asian financial crises and the results are further supported and consistent with the empirical findings. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on the economic factors across countries. This paper instead attempts to evaluate the effects of financial liberalization and currency crises by incorporating political considerations with newly developed dataset on financial liberalization, which are essential to the understanding of the causes of currency crises.