• 대기
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.17-33
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• 2011

A dynamical downscaling system for seasonal forecast has been constructed based on a regional climate model, and its predictability was investigated for 10 years' wintertime (December-January-February; DJF) climatology in East Asia. Initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the operational seasonal forecasting data, which are realtime output of the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Sea surface temperature was also obtained from the operational forecasts, i.e., KMA El-Nino and Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecast System. In order to determine the better configuration of the regional climate model for East Asian regions, two sensitivity experiments were carried out for one winter season (97/98 DJF): One is for the topography blending and the other is for the cumulus parameterization scheme. After determining the proper configuration, the predictability of the regional forecasting system was validated with respect to 850 hPa temperature and precipitation. The results showed that mean fields error and other verification statistics were generally decreased compared to GDAPS, most evident in 500 hPa geopotential heights. These improved simulation affected season prediction, and then HSS was better 36% and 11% about 850 hPa temperature and precipitation, respectively.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.342-353
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• 2014

Data for model analysis derived from the finite volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4) and the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) have been utilized in a mesoscale model. These data are tested to provide initial conditions and lateral boundary forcings to the Purdue Mesoscale Model (PMM) for a case study of the Midwestern flood that took place from 21-23 May 1998. The simulated results with fvGCM and LDAS soil moisture and temperature data are compared with that of ECMWF reanalysis. The initial conditions of the land surface provided by fvGCM/LDAS show significant differences in both soil moisture and ground temperature when compared to ECMWF control run, which results in a much different atmospheric state in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). The simulation result shows that significant changes to the forecasted weather system occur due to the surface initial conditions, especially for the precipitation and temperature over the land. In comparing precipitation, moisture budgets, and surface energy, not only do the intensity and the location of precipitation over the Midwestern U.S. coincide better when running fvGCM/LDAS, but also the temperature forecast agrees better when compared to ECMWF reanalysis data. However, the precipitation over the Rocky Mountains is too large due to the cumulus parameterization scheme used in the PMM. The RMS errors and biases of fvGCM/LDAS are smaller than the control run and show statistical significance supporting the conclusion that the use of LDAS improves the precipitation and temperature forecast in the case of the Midwestern flood. The same method can be applied to Korea and simulations will be carried out as more LDAS data becomes available.