• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cumulative probability

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Preferential Flow as Tested by Breakthrough Curves of Cl- and Cu2+ from Saturated Undisturbed Soil Core Samples under Steady Flow Conditions (포화 불교란 토양시료의 Cl- 및 Cu2+ 출현곡선에 의한 preferential flow의 검증)

  • Yoo, Sun-Ho;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Ro, Hee-Myong;Han, Gwang-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2000
  • Preferential flow has recently been the subject of increasing interest because these phenomena contribute to solute transport in soils. Commonly, preferential flow paths are associated with macropores or highly structured soils. We presented an analysis of the measured breakthrough curves (BTCs) of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ ions to test the occurrence of preferential flow in soils using miscible displacement technique under steady flow conditions. We also analyzed soil water retention curves and from this curves induced cumulative pore size distribution of undisturbed soils, which sampled from Ap1, B1, and C horizons of Songjeong series soils (the fine loamy, mesic family of Typic Hapludults). In this study, miscible displacement experiment on C horizon was excluded, because it is structureless sandy loam with saturated hydraulic conductivity of $5.2cmhr^{-1}$. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of Ap1 horizon was $2.0cmhr^{-1}$, which was about 7 times higher than that of B1 horizon ($0.27cm hr^{-1}$). Cumulative pore size distribution predicted that Ap1 horizon had more macropores (pore diameter larger than $49{\mu}m$, equivalent to -6 kpa of soil matric potential) than B1 horizon. The hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient from chloride BTCs was estimated as $1.3cm^2hr^{-1}$ for B1 and $34cm^2hr^{-1}$ for Ap1 horizon. However the retardation factors of B1 and Ap1 horizon were significantly different, i.e. 1 and 0.6, respectively, which means that there was distinct partition between mobile water and immobile phase in Ap1 horizon. The copper retardation effect of Ap1 horizon was less than that of B1 horizon, even though cation exchange capacity of Ap1 horizon was higher than that of B1 horizon. Thus, breakthrough curves of $Cl^-$ and $Cu^{2+}$ obviously showed the probability that preferential flow would occur in Ap1 horizon.

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Rectal Complication Following Radical Radiotherapy in Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix (자궁경부암에서 근치적 방사선치료 후의 직장 합병증)

  • Kim Won-Dong;Park Woo-Yoon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2006
  • Puroose: This study evaluated the late rectal complications in cervix cancer patients following treatment with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and high dose rate intracavitary radiation (HDR ICR). The factors affecting the risk of developing late rectal complications and its incidence were analyzed and discussed. Materials and Methods: The records of 105 patients with cervix cancer who were treated with radical radiotherapy using HDR ICR between July, 1995 and December, 2001 were retrospectively reviewed. The median dose of EBRT was 50.4Gy $(41.4{\sim}56.4 Gy)$ with a daily fraction size of 1.8Gy. A total of $5{\sim}7$ (median: 6) fractions of HDR ICR were given twice weekly with a fraction size of $4{\sim}5 Gy$ (median: 4Gy) to A point using an Ir (Iridium)-192 source. The median dose of ICR was 24 Gy $(20{\sim}35 Gy)$. During HDR ICR, the rectal dose was measured in vivo by a semiconductor dosimeter. The median follow-up period was 32 months, ranging from 5 to 84 months. Results: Of the 105 patients, 12 patients (11%) developed late rectal complications: 7 patients with grade 1 or 2, 4 patients with grade 3 and 1 patient with grade 4. Rectal bleeding was the most frequent chief complaint. The complications usually began to occur $5{\sim}32$ (median: 12) months after the completion of radiotherapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that the measured cumulative rectal BED over 115 Gy3 (Deq over 69 Gy) and the depth (D) of a 5 Gy isodose volume more than 50 mm were the independent predictors for late rectal complications. Conclusion: With evaluating the cumulative rectal BED and the depth of a 5 Gy isodose volume as predictors, we can individualize treatment planning to reduce the probability of late rectal complications.

Application of Proportional Odds Models to the Effects of Removing Dental Plaque in Use of Proxabrush (치간칫솔 사용에 따른 치면세균막 제거효과에 대한 비례오즈모형(proportional odds models) 적용)

  • Kim, Jin-Soo;Kim, Jee-Yun;Jorn, Hong-Suk
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.169-173
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    • 2008
  • As a result of analyzing the effects of removing dental plaque according to using proxabrush by using the proportional odds models, targeting patients of practicing oral prophylaxis in juniors for the Department of Dental Hygiene at S university from March 10, 2007 to June 3, 2007, the following conclusions were obtained. 1. The goodness-of-fit in the proportional odds models is 1.2552 whose degree of freedom is 3, and p value is .7398, thereby implying that the proportional odds models are appropriate. And, regarding the effects of removing dental plaque and the independent matter of using proxabrush, as the test on $H_0:{\beta}=0$, the test statistics is 15.5496 whose degree of freedom is 1, and p value is 15.5496. This implies that there is high correlation between the effect of removing dental plaque and the use of proxabrush. 2. ML estimate on $\beta$ in the model can be $\hat{\beta}=1.2493$ (ASE = 0.3207). And, as for the tendency that the response will belong to being very good(this can be expressed to be $Y{\leq}j$) rather than being very bad, the tendency of using proxabrush is higher by the estimated odds ratio exp(1.2493) = 3.49 times than the response of not using proxabrush. 3. As for the estimated response in the proportional odds models, the estimated(cumulative) probability, which the response of using proxabrush is very good and will belong to the good effect of removing dental plaque, is 0.38(0.50).

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Drought Index Development for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in a Catchment (집수역 내 농업가뭄 감시를 위한 가뭄지수 개발)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.359-367
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    • 2014
  • Drought index can be used to implement an early warning system for drought and to operate a drought monitoring service. In this study, an approach was examined to determine agricultural drought index (ADI) at high spatial resolution, e.g., 270 m. The value of ADI was calculated based on soil water balance between supply and demand of water. Water supply is calculated by the cumulative effective precipitation with the application of the weight to the precipitation from two months ago. Water demand is derived from the actual evapotranspiration, which was calculated applying a crop coefficient to the reference evapotranspiration. The amount of surface runoff on a given soil type was also used to calculate soil residual moisture. Presence of drought was determined based on the probability distribution in the given area. In order to assess the reliability of this index, the amount of residual moisture, which represents severity of drought, was compared with measurements of soil moisture at three experimental between July 2012 and December 2013. As a result, the ADI had greater correlation with measured soil moisture compared with the standardized precipitation index, which suggested that the ADI would be useful for drought warning services.

Reliability Analysis and Fatigue Models of Concrete under Flexural or Split Tensional Cyclic Loadings (휨 또는 쪼갬인장 반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 신뢰성 해석과 피로모델 제안)

  • Kim Dong-Ho;Sim Do-Sik;Kim Sung-Hwan;Yun Kyong-Ku
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.16 no.5 s.83
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    • pp.581-589
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    • 2004
  • This paper compares the fatigue behaviors of concretes subjected to flexural and split-tensional loadings, and proposes the fatigue reliability models based on experimental results and reliability analysis. The fatigue tests were performed for the specimens of $150 mm{\times}75 mm$ split tensional cylinders and $150 mm{\times}150 mm{\times}550 mm$ flexural beams under constant loadings at three levels (70, 80 and $90\%$) with 0.1 stress ratio, 20 Hz loading speed and sine wave. The reliability analysis on fatigue data was based on Weibull distribution of two-parameters. From fatigue test results, two criteria were proposed to reject the experimental fatigue data because of statistical variation of concrete fatigue data. Two parameters ($\alpha$and u) of Weibull distribution were obtained using graphical method, moment method and maximum likelihood method. The probability density function(P.D.F) and cumulative distribution function(C.D.F) of the Weibull distribution for fatigue life of pavement concrete were derived for various stress levels using parameters, $\alpha$ and u. The goodness-of-fit test by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was acceptable at $5\%$ level of significance. Based on reliability analysis, a fatigue model for pavement concrete was proposed and compared from existing models.

Application of Indicator Geostatistics for Probabilistic Uncertainty and Risk Analyses of Geochemical Data (지화학 자료의 확률론적 불확실성 및 위험성 분석을 위한 지시자 지구통계학의 응용)

  • Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.301-312
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    • 2010
  • Geochemical data have been regarded as one of the important environmental variables in the environmental management. Since they are often sampled at sparse locations, it is important not only to predict attribute values at unsampled locations, but also to assess the uncertainty attached to the prediction for further analysis. The main objective of this paper is to exemplify how indicator geostatistics can be effectively applied to geochemical data processing for providing decision-supporting information as well as spatial distribution of the geochemical data. A whole geostatistical analysis framework, which includes probabilistic uncertainty modeling, classification and risk analysis, was illustrated through a case study of cadmium mapping. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) was first modeled by indicator kriging, and then e-type estimates and conditional variance were computed for spatial distribution of cadmium and quantitative uncertainty measures, respectively. Two different classification criteria such as a probability thresholding and an attribute thresholding were applied to delineate contaminated and safe areas. Finally, additional sampling locations were extracted from the coefficient of variation that accounts for both the conditional variance and the difference between attribute values and thresholding values. It is suggested that the indicator geostatistical framework illustrated in this study be a useful tool for analyzing any environmental variables including geochemical data for decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.

An attitude survey on the safety of the household utilities with the urban gas (설문에 의한 도시가스 사용가구의 안전의식도 조사)

  • Ko Jae-Sun;Kim Hyo;Lee SuKyoung
    • 한국가스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2005
  • The questionnaires about the safety of the urban gas have been carried out for the end users. about 8 of 10 persons said that the urban gas Is safe to use, whereas $35\%$ of them said there exists a hazard of an accident in thier residences. There cannot be found the clear evidences that the understandings on the safety of the urban gas have no relations to their ages, sex, and monthly incomes, while the safety is less confidential to the highly educated, the accident-experienced, or the mans who are poor at the safety inspections. Most of the questioned man know the inspection knacks for the gas utilities, but only $60\%$ of them carry out it. They said that they do not feel the necessity of the inspection because they are inspected routinely by the suppliers or the inspection companies. This says that the end user does not concern the safety inspections, and in order to improve the dependency of the user for the self-inspections, the inspection staff should educate the user for the necessity and the knack of inspections to encourage the self-inspection of the gas utilities.

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Characterization of a Korean Traditional Porcine Breed Using Microsatellite Markers and the Establishment of an Individual Identification System (Microsatellite Marker를 이용한 한국재래돼지 집단의 품종특성 및 원산지 추적을 위한 개체식별체계 설정)

  • Kim, M.J.;Li, G.H.;Oh, J.D.;Cho, K.H.;Jeon, G.J.;Choi, B.H.;Lee, J.H.;Hong, Y.S.;Kong, H.S.;Lee, H.K.
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2007
  • This study was conducted to analyze the genetic characteristics of Korean Native Pigs(KNP), and to establish an individual identification system comprising many microsatellite markers located on different pig autosomes. Genotype data from 13 microsatellites typed in 446 animals was used to determine the validation of a method of individual identification in 4 KNP. A total of 112 alleles of the 13 microsatellites were detected and average heterozygosities(polymorphic information content) ranged from 0.286(0.423) to 0.686(0.796) in this study. Comparing the pattern of allele frequency among the KNP, Yorkshire, Landrace and Duroc breeds, there was specific differentiation between populations at multi-allelic loci. The cumulative power of discrimination(CPD) was 99.999% by including 10 microsatellite loci for the individual identification system. The probability that two different individuals incidentally have same genotype was estimated to be $0.36{\times}10^{-9}$. The system employing these 10 markers therefore proved to be applicable to the individual identification of KNP.

Semi-Quantitative Exposure Assessment of Occupational Exposure to Wood Dust and Nasopharyngeal Cancer Risk

  • Ekpanyaskul, Chatchai;Sangrajrang, Suleeporn;Ekburanawat, Wiwat;Brennan, Paul;Mannetje, Andrea;Thetkathuek, Anamai;Saejiw, Nutjaree;Ruangsuwan, Tassanu;Boffetta, Paolo
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.4339-4345
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    • 2015
  • Occupational exposure to wood dust is one cause of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC); however, assessing this exposure remains problematic. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a semi-quantitative exposure assessment method and then utilize it to evaluate the association between occupational exposure to wood dust and the development of NPC. In addition, variations in risk by histology were examined. A case-control study was conducted with 327 newly diagnosed cases of NPC at the National Cancer Institute and regional cancer centers in Thailand with 1:1 controls matched for age, gender and geographical residence. Occupational information was obtained through personal interviews. The potential probability, frequency and intensity of exposure to wood dust were assessed on a job-by-job basis by experienced experts. Analysis was performed by conditional logistic regression and presented in odds ratio (ORs) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Overall, a non significant relationship between occupational wood dust exposure and NPC risk for all subjects was observed (ORs=1.61, 95%CI 0.99-2.59); however, the risk became significant when analyses focused on types 2 and 3 of NPC (ORs=1.62, 95%CI 1.03-2.74). The significant association was stronger for those exposed to wood dust for > 10 year (ORs=2.26, 95%CI 1.10-4.63), for those with first-time exposure at age > 25 year (ORs=2.07, 95%CI 1.08-3.94), and for those who had a high cumulative exposure (ORs=2.17, 95%CI 1.03-4.58) when compared with those considered unexposed. In conclusion, wood dust is likely to be associated with an increased risk of type 2 or 3 NPC in the Thai population. The results of this study show that semi-quantitative exposure assessment is suitable for occupational exposure assessment in a case control study and complements the information from self-reporting.

Optimal Design of Breakwater Caisson Considering Expected Total Construction Cost and Allowable Sliding Distance (기대 총 건설비 및 허용 활동량을 고려한 방파제 케이슨의 최적설계)

  • Kim Kyung-Suk;Suh Kyung-Duck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.280-293
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    • 2005
  • In this study, a model to calculate the expected total construction cost has been developed by combining a model to calculate the sliding distance of a caisson of a vertical breakwater and a model to calculate the rehabilitation cost of a caisson. The optimal cross-section of a caisson of a vertical breakwater is defined as the cross-section that requires a minimum expected total construction cost within the allowable limit of caisson sliding. Two allowable limits are considered: 0.1 m of the expected sliding distance during the lifetime of the breakwater and 0.1 of the probability that the cumulative sliding distance during the lifetime of the breakwater is greater than 0.3 m. A discount rate has also been introduced to convert the future rehabilitation cost to the present value. The introduction of the discount rate reduces the expected total construction cost for the caissons designed for shorter return periods due to frequent rehabilitations. The present design method requires a smaller cross-section than the conventional deterministic method in shallow water depths, enabling us to design a caisson more economically. On the other hand, the above-mentioned allowable limits of caisson sliding show similar results for smaller water depths, while, for larger depths, the former requires a larger cross-section than the latter.