• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cumulative probability

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Analysis of the Long-term Wave Characteristics off the Coast of Daejin (대진 연안의 장기 파랑 특성 분석)

  • Jeong, Weon Mu;Cho, Hongyeon;Baek, Wondae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.142-147
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    • 2015
  • Wave data acquired over seven years near Daejin Harbor located in the north central area of the east coast was analyzed using spectral method and wave-by-wave analysis method and its major wave characteristics were examined. Significant wave heights were found to be high in winter and low in summer, and peak periods were also found to be long in winter and short in summer. The maximum significant wave height observed was 6.59 m and was caused by Typhoon No. 1216, SANBA. The distributional pattern of the significant wave heights and peak periods were both reproduced better by Kernel distribution function than by Generalized Gamma distribution function and Generalized Extreme Value distribution function. Meanwhile, the wave data was subdivided by month and wave height level and the cumulative appearance rate was proposed to aid designing and constructing works in nearby coastal areas.

Evaluation of Reservoir Drought Response Capability Considering Precipitation of Non-irrigation Period using RCP Scenario (RCP 시나리오에 따른 비관개기 누적강수량을 고려한 둑높이기 저수지의 미래 가뭄대응능력 평가)

  • Bang, JeHong;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Yong;Lee, Sung-Hack
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2017
  • Recent studies about irrigation water use have focused on agricultural reservoir operation in irrigation period. At the same time, it is significant to store water resource in reservoir during non-irrigation period in order to secure sufficient water in early growing season. In this study, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 8.5 scenarios with the Global Climate Model (GCM) of The Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2) were downscaled with bias correlation method. Cumulative precipitation during non-irrigation season, October to March, was analyzed. Interaction between cumulative precipitation and carry-over storage was analyzed with linear regression model for ten study reservoirs. Using the regression model, reservoir drought response ability was evaluated with expression of excess and deficiency. The results showed that future droughts will be more severe than past droughts. Especially in case of non-exceedance probability of 10%, drought in southern region seemed to be serious. Nine study reservoirs showed deficiency range from 10% to 55%, which turned out to be vulnerable for future drought. Only Jang-Chan reservoir was secure for early growing season in spite of drought with deficiency of 8% and -2%. The results of this study represents current agricultural reservoirs have vulnerability for the upcoming drought.

Short-term fatigue analysis for tower base of a spar-type wind turbine under stochastic wind-wave loads

  • Li, Haoran;Hu, Zhiqiang;Wang, Jin;Meng, Xiangyin
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2018
  • Due to integrated stochastic wind and wave loads, the supporting platform of a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT) has to bear six Degrees of Freedom (DOF) motion, which makes the random cyclic loads acting on the structural components, for instance the tower base, more complicated than those on bottom-fixed or land-based wind turbines. These cyclic loads may cause unexpected fatigue damages on a FOWT. This paper presents a study on short-term fatigue damage at the tower base of a 5 MW FOWT with a spar-type platform. Fully coupled time-domain simulations code FAST is used and realistic environment conditions are considered to obtain the loads and structural stresses at the tower base. Then the cumulative fatigue damage is calculated based on rainflow counting method and Miner's rule. Moreover, the effects of the simulation length, the wind-wave misalignment, the wind-only condition and the wave-only condition on the fatigue damage are investigated. It is found that the wind and wave induced loads affect the tower base's axial stress separately and in a decoupled way, and the wave-induced fatigue damage is greater than that induced by the wind loads. Under the environment conditions with rated wind speed, the tower base experiences the highest fatigue damage when the joint probability of the wind and wave is included in the calculation. Moreover, it is also found that 1 h simulation length is sufficient to give an appropriate fatigue damage estimated life for FOWT.

Is partial hepatectomy a curable treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma accompanied by cirrhosis? A meta-analysis and cure model analysis

  • Byungje Bae;Keera Kang;Sung Kyu Song;Chul-Woon Chung;Yongkeun Park
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2022
  • Backgrounds/Aims: It is challenging to assess the efficacy of partial hepatectomy (PH) as a treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accompanied by cirrhosis. This study aimed to determine the cure fraction of PH for HCC accompanied by cirrhosis compared to that for HCC without cirrhosis. Methods: A systematic review was performed on outcomes of previous studies that compared recurrence-free survival (RFS) after PH in patients with HCC with or without cirrhosis. A meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the cumulative hazard ratio for two patient groups: cirrhosis and non-cirrhosis. Cure fractions after PH in both groups were determined using a cure model analysis. Results: A total of 18 studies were eligible for meta-analysis and 13 studies were selected for the cure model analysis. The cumulative hazard ratio for RFS of the cirrhosis group compared to that of the non-cirrhosis group was 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-1.93). Survival data of 3,512 patients in both groups were reconstructed from survival curves of original articles for cure model analysis. The probability of being statistically cured after PH for HCC was 14.1% (95% CI, 10.6%-18.1%) in the cirrhosis group lower than that (32.5%) in the non-cirrhosis group (95% CI, 28.6%-36.4%). Conclusions: The prognosis after PH for HCC accompanied by cirrhosis is inferior to that for HCC without cirrhosis. However, a cure can be expected for one-seventh of patients with HCC accompanied by cirrhosis after PH.

Fatigue Life Evaluation for Used Rail on Track Types (궤도형식별 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kang, Sung Won;Lim, Hyung-Jun;Park, Yong-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.649-657
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    • 2017
  • In this study, fatigue testing was carried out for long-term use of rail according to track type. From S-N curves for 50%~0.01% failure probability, the fatigue life of the long-term use rail for each track type was derived using the weight probability analysis technique on the experimental data. Because the rails used in the fatigue test have different cumulative tonnages, the number of repetitions was modified by averaging the cumulative tonnage. In addition, the bending stresses of rail bottoms, considering rail surface irregularities, track support stiffnesses and train speeds, were evaluated using the predicted rail bending stresses derived from existing studies. As a result, for rail fatigue life evaluation, the fatigue life of rail on the ballast track was found to be more than 200 million tons higher than the standard value for rail replacement. Also, the fatigue life of rail on concrete track is more than 300 million tons higher than that on ballast track. The Haibach rule is adaptable for the fatigue life evaluation of rail for stress range under fatigue limit.

The MeSH-Term Query Expansion Models using LDA Topic Models in Health Information Retrieval (MeSH 기반의 LDA 토픽 모델을 이용한 검색어 확장)

  • You, Sukjin
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.79-108
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    • 2021
  • Information retrieval in the health field has several challenges. Health information terminology is difficult for consumers (laypeople) to understand. Formulating a query with professional terms is not easy for consumers because health-related terms are more familiar to health professionals. If health terms related to a query are automatically added, it would help consumers to find relevant information. The proposed query expansion (QE) models show how to expand a query using MeSH terms. The documents were represented by MeSH terms (i.e. Bag-of-MeSH), found in the full-text articles. And then the MeSH terms were used to generate LDA (Latent Dirichlet Analysis) topic models. A query and the top k retrieved documents were used to find MeSH terms as topic words related to the query. LDA topic words were filtered by threshold values of topic probability (TP) and word probability (WP). Threshold values were effective in an LDA model with a specific number of topics to increase IR performance in terms of infAP (inferred Average Precision) and infNDCG (inferred Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain), which are common IR metrics for large data collections with incomplete judgments. The top k words were chosen by the word score based on (TP *WP) and retrieved document ranking in an LDA model with specific thresholds. The QE model with specific thresholds for TP and WP showed improved mean infAP and infNDCG scores in an LDA model, comparing with the baseline result.

Estimation of Genetic Characteristic and Cumulative Power of Discrimination using the Microsatellite Markers in Korean Native Chicken (Microsatellite Marker를 사용한 재래 닭 품종 유전적 특성 및 개체 식별력 분석)

  • Lee, Kun-Woo;Oh, Jae-Don;Lee, Jin-Ah;Cho, Kyu-Ho;Nam, In-Sik;Lee, Jun-Heon;Seo, Ok-Suk;Jeon, Gwang-Joo;Lee, Hak-Kyo;Kong, Hong-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2010
  • To estimate the genetic characteristics and cumulative power of discrimination (CPD) Korean Native Chicken. We used a total of 195 genomic DNAs from four breeds population (Korean Native Red chicken: R, Korean Native Yellow chicken: Y, Korean Native Black chicken: L, Ogal chicken: S). Frequencies of microsatellites markers were used to estimate heterozygosities and genetic distances. The lowest distance (0.05) was observed between the R and L strains and the highest distance (0.158) between the L and S strains. Korean native chicken strains (R, Y, K) have each other comparatively near genetic distance. Cumulative power of discriminate (CPD) was 99.999% by including the 10 microsatellites loci individual identification system. And then matching probability in that two different individuals incidentally have same genotype was estimated to $0.36{\times}10^{-7}$. The system employing the 10 markers therefore provided to be applicable to individual identification in Korea native chicken.

Analysis of Water bady Damage at Osu Stream Using the Flow-Loading Equation and 8-Day Intervals Cumulative Flow Duration Curve (유량-부하량 관계식과 8일 간격 누적유량지속곡선을 이용한 오수천의 수체 손상도 분석)

  • Lee, Young Sung;Kim, Young Suk;Han, Sung Wook;Seo, kwon ok;Lim, chang bok;Lee, Yeong Jae;Kim, Kyunghyun;Jung, Kang-Young
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.27 no.12
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    • pp.1179-1193
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study at water quality pollutants to propose proper management method for the Osu-A unit watershed which is the influent tributary located upstream of the Sumjin -river among the 13 unit watersheds in the Sumjin-river water system. Analyzed the correlation between flow-pollution loading and the correlation between land use type, BOD and TP items, and analyzed 8-day intervals Cumulative Flow Duration Curve (CFDC) and Load Duration Curve (LDC) to evaluate water quality damage. As a result, both BOD and TP were larger than 1 and the concentration of water pollutants increased with increasing flow. BOD was positively correlated with Urban and Field, and TP was positively correlated with Field with 0.710. As a result of the LDC, BOD was analyzed that the target water quality was achieved with the excess rate of less than 50%, and TP exceeded the target water quality by 50.1%. BOD usually exceeded the standard value (exceedance probability 50%) at low flow zone and On the other hand, TP usually exceeded the standard value at high flow zone. Monthly BOD (April to June) and TP (May to August) exceeded the standard. Sewage Wastewater treatment and non-point pollution control is Osu-A unit watersheds are effective in improving BOD and TP.

Application of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve to Korea Derived by Cumulative Distribution Function (누가분포함수를 활용한 강우강도식의 국내 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Kewtae;Kim, Taesoon;Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4B
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    • pp.363-374
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    • 2008
  • Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve that is essential to calculate rainfall quantiles for designing hydraulic structures in Korea is generally formulated by regression analysis. In this study, IDF curve derived by the cumulative distribution function ("IDF by CDF") of the proper probability distribution function (PDF) of each site is suggested, and the corresponding parameters of IDF curve are computed using genetic algorithm (GA). For this purpose, IDF by CDF and the conventional IDF derived by regression analysis ("IDF by REG") were computed for 22 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) rainfall recording sites. Comparisons of RMSE (root mean squared error) and RRMSE (Relative RMSE) of rainfall intensities computed from IDF by CDF and IDF by REG show that IDF by CDF is more accurate than IDF by REG. In order to accommodate the effect of the recent intensive rainfall of Korea, the rainfall intensities computed by the two IDF curves are compared with that by at-site frequency analysis using the rainfall data recorded by 2006, and the result from IDF by CDF show the better performance than that from IDF by REG. As a result, it can be said that the suggested IDF by CDF curve would be the more efficient IDF curve than that computed by regression analysis and could be applied for Korean rainfall data.

Condition Assessment for Wind Turbines with Doubly Fed Induction Generators Based on SCADA Data

  • Sun, Peng;Li, Jian;Wang, Caisheng;Yan, Yonglong
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.689-700
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents an effective approach for wind turbine (WT) condition assessment based on the data collected from wind farm supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Three types of assessment indices are determined based on the monitoring parameters obtained from the SCADA system. Neural Networks (NNs) are used to establish prediction models for the assessment indices that are dependent on environmental conditions such as ambient temperature and wind speed. An abnormal level index (ALI) is defined to quantify the abnormal level of the proposed indices. Prediction errors of the prediction models follow a normal distribution. Thus, the ALIs can be calculated based on the probability density function of normal distribution. For other assessment indices, the ALIs are calculated by the nonparametric estimation based cumulative probability density function. A Back-Propagation NN (BPNN) algorithm is used for the overall WT condition assessment. The inputs to the BPNN are the ALIs of the proposed indices. The network structure and the number of nodes in the hidden layer are carefully chosen when the BPNN model is being trained. The condition assessment method has been used for real 1.5 MW WTs with doubly fed induction generators. Results show that the proposed assessment method could effectively predict the change of operating conditions prior to fault occurrences and provide early alarming of the developing faults of WTs.