• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cumulative Hazard Intensity

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Developing a Non-Periodic Preventive Maintenance Model Guaranteeing the Minimum Reliability (최소 신뢰도를 보장하는 비 주기적 예방보전 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Ahn, Suneung
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.104-113
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This paper proposes the non-periodic preventive maintenance policy based on the level of cumulative hazard intensity. We aim to construct a cost-effectiveness on the proposed model with relaxing the constraint on reliability. Methods: We use the level of cumulative hazard intensity as a condition variable, instead of reliability. Such a level of cumulative hazard intensity can derive the reliability which decreases as the frequency of preventive maintenance action increases. We also model the imperfect preventive maintenance action using the proportional age setback model. Conclusion: We provide a numerical example to illustrate the proposed model. We also analyze how the parameters of our model affect the optimal preventive maintenance policy. The results show that as long as high reliability is guaranteed, the inefficient preventive maintenance action is performed reducing the system operation time. Moreover, the optimal value of the proposed model is sensitive to changes in preventive maintenance cost and replacement cost.

Empirical modelling approaches to modelling failures

  • Baik, Jaiwook;Jo, Jinnam
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2013
  • Modelling of failures is an important element of reliability modelling. Empirical modelling approach suitable for complex item is explored in this paper. First step of the empirical modelling approach is to plot hazard function, density function, Weibull probability plot as well as cumulative intensity function to see which model fits best for the given data. Next step of the empirical modelling approach is select appropriate model for the data and fit the parametric model accordingly and estimate the parameters.

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Mesothelioma in Sweden: Dose-Response Analysis for Exposure to 29 Potential Occupational Carcinogenic Agents

  • Plato, Nils;Martinsen, Jan I.;Kjaerheim, Kristina;Kyyronen, Pentti;Sparen, Par;Weiderpass, Elisabete
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.290-295
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    • 2018
  • Background: There is little information on the dose-response relationship between exposure to occupational carcinogenic agents and mesothelioma. This study aimed to investigate this association as well as the existence of agents other than asbestos that might cause mesothelioma. Methods: The Swedish component of the Nordic Occupational Cancer (NOCCA) study consists of 6.78 million individuals with detailed information on occupation. Mesothelioma diagnoses recorded in 1961-2009 were identified through linkage to the Swedish Cancer Registry. We determined cumulative exposure, time of first exposure, and maximum exposure intensity by linking data on occupation to the Swedish NOCCA job-exposure matrix, which includes 29 carcinogenic agents and corresponding exposure for 283 occupations. To assess the risk of mesothelioma, we used conditional logistic regression models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: 2,757 mesothelioma cases were identified in males, including 1,416 who were exposed to asbestos. Univariate analyses showed not only a significant excess risk for maximum exposure intensity, with a hazard ratio of 4.81 at exposure levels 1.25-2.0 fb/ml but also a clear dose-response effect for cumulative exposure with a 30-, 40-, and 50-year latency time. No convincing excess risk was revealed for any of the other carcinogenic agents included in the Swedish NOCCA job-exposure matrix. Conclusion: When considering asbestos exposure, past exposure, even for short periods, might be enough to cause mesothelioma of the pleura later in life.

Application of the JMA instrumental intensity in Korea (일본 기상청 계측진도의 국내 활용)

  • Kim, Hye-Lim;Kim, Sung-Kyun;Choi, Kang-Ryong
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2010
  • In general, the seismic intensity deduced from instrumental data has been evaluated from the empirical relation between the intensity and the PGA. From the point of view that the degree of earthquake damage is more closely associated with the seismic intensity than with the observed PGA, JMA developed the instrumental seismic intensity (JMA instrumental intensity) meter that estimate the real-time seismic intensity from the observed strong motion data to obtain a more correct estimate of earthquake damage. The purpose of the present study is to propose a practical application of the JMA instrumental intensity in Korea. Since the occurrence of strong earthquakes is scarce in the Korean Peninsula, there is an insufficiency of strong motion data. As a result, strong motion data were synthesized by a stochastic procedure to satisfy the characteristics of a seismic source and crustal attenuation of the Peninsula. Six engineering ground motion parameters, including the JMA instrumental intensity, were determined from the synthesized strong motion data. The empirical relations between the ground motion parameters were then analyzed. Cluster analysis to classify the parameters into groups was also performed. The result showed that the JMA acceleration ($a_0$) could be classified into similar group with the spectrum intensity and the relatively distant group with the CAV (Cumulative Absolute Velocity). It is thought that the $a_0$ or JMA intensity can be used as an alternative criterion in the evaluation of seismic damage. On the other hand, attenuation relation equations for PGA and $a_0$ to be used in the prediction of seismic hazard were derived as functions of the moment magnitude and hypocentral distance.

An Experimental Study on the Analysis of Infiltration Capacity of the Permeable Block (투수성 보도블록의 침투능 분석에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Lee, Hoon;Jung, Do-Joon;Kim, Young-Bok;Kim, Yun-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2009
  • This research was to estimate quantitative infiltration volume of permeable block which is one of runoff reduction infiltration facilities. In this research, the permeable block experiments estimating infiltration volume for 50, 100, 150, 200 mm/hr rainfall intensity were carried out and hydraulic experiments results were compared with numerical simulation output to produce feasibility of numerical simulation. Final infiltration capacity analysis of permeable block hydraulic experiments reveals that every estimated infiltration volume before runoff beginning was above approximately 300.0 l despite rapid reduction of infiltration ratio and runoff initiation time were occurred in every rainfall intensity. Statistical calculation for coefficient of determination based on cumulative infiltration volume of hydraulic experiment and numerical simulation resulted in a high correlationship as $0.958{\sim}0.996$.

Assessment of seismic parameters for 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes

  • Bilal Balun
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.88 no.2
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    • pp.117-128
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    • 2023
  • On February 6, 2023, Türkiye woke up with a strong ground motion felt in a wide geography. As a result of the Kahramanmaraş, Pazarcık and Elbistan earthquakes, which took place 9 hours apart, there was great destruction and loss of life. The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes occurred on active faults known to pose a high seismic hazard, but their effects were devastating. Seismic code spectra were investigated in Hatay, Adıyaman and Kahramanmaraş where destruction is high. The study mainly focuses on the investigation of ground motion parameters of 6 February Kahramanmaraş earthquakes and the correlation between ground motion parameters. In addition, earthquakes greater than Mw 5.0 that occurred in Türkiye were compared with certain seismic parameters. As in the strong ground motion studies, seismic energy parameters such as Arias intensity, characteristic intensity, cumulative absolute velocity and specific energy density were determined, especially considering the duration content of the earthquake. Based on the study, it was concluded that the structures were overloaded far beyond their normal design levels. This, coupled with significant vertical seismic components, is a contributing factor to the collapse of many buildings in the area. In the evaluation made on Arias intensity, much more energy (approximately ten times) emerged in Kahramanmaraş earthquakes compared to other Türkiye earthquakes. No good correlation was found between moment magnitude and peak ground accelerations, peak ground velocities, Arias intensities and ground motion durations in Türkiye earthquakes. Both high seismic components and long ground motion durations caused intense energy to be transferred to the structures. No strong correlation was found between ground motion durations and other seismic parameters. There is a strong positive correlation between PGA and seismic energy parameter AI. Kahramanmaraş earthquakes revealed that changes should be made in the Turkish seismic code to predict higher spectral acceleration values, especially in earthquake-prone regions in Türkiye.

Real-time seismic structural response prediction system based on support vector machine

  • Lin, Kuang Yi;Lin, Tzu Kang;Lin, Yo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2020
  • Floor acceleration plays a major role in the seismic design of nonstructural components and equipment supported by structures. Large floor acceleration may cause structural damage to or even collapse of buildings. For precision instruments in high-tech factories, even small floor accelerations can cause considerable damage in this study. Six P-wave parameters, namely the peak measurement of acceleration, peak measurement of velocity, peak measurement of displacement, effective predominant period, integral of squared velocity, and cumulative absolute velocity, were estimated from the first 3 s of a vertical ground acceleration time history. Subsequently, a new predictive algorithm was developed, which utilizes the aforementioned parameters with the floor height and fundamental period of the structure as the new inputs of a support vector regression model. Representative earthquakes, which were recorded by the Structure Strong Earthquake Monitoring System of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan from 1992 to 2016, were used to construct the support vector regression model for predicting the peak floor acceleration (PFA) of each floor. The results indicated that the accuracy of the predicted PFA, which was defined as a PFA within a one-level difference from the measured PFA on Taiwan's seismic intensity scale, was 96.96%. The proposed system can be integrated into the existing earthquake early warning system to provide complete protection to life and the economy.

Characteristics of Basin Topography and Rainfall Triggering Debris Flow (토석류 발생 지형과 유발 강우 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Kyung-Suk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5C
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    • pp.263-271
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    • 2008
  • Investigation and analysis of the debris flow characteristics such as basin topography, geologic conditions of initiation location and triggering rainfall are required to systematically mitigate debris flow hazard. In this paper, 48 debris flows which had caused some damages to the highway in the past 5 years are investigated and their characteristics of basic topography and triggering rainfall are analyzed. Debris flows are found to occur in small basins having the area of $0.01{\sim}0.65km^2$ range and mostly initiated by the surficial failure of natural slope having the inclination of 29~55 degree during the intense rainfall. As for the triggering rainfall, rainfall of 2 to 5 year recurrence frequency are found to be able to trigger the debris flow and magnitude of debris flow in a basin could depend on the rainfall intensity and cumulative amount.

Worker Health Hazard and Risk Assessment of Formamide using in Workplaces in South Korea (작업장에서 사용하는 포름아미드(Formamide)의 근로자 건강 유해성과 위험성 평가)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2016
  • Formamide is a colorless fluid with ammonia odor, and irritable when inhaled. It has $LD_{50}$ value of > 5,577 mg/kg in rats for acute oral toxicity and NOAEL of 113 mg/kg/day for target organ (liver) of whole body toxicity. It is also known as reproductive toxicant (1B) and TWA(Time Weighted Average) for it is 10 ppm. Workplace measurements of work places dealing with formamide showed the ppm of all 25 samples was very lower than WEL. However, the exposure concentration can change, depending on workplace condition such as the intensity of work, operating local ventilation system, and wearing protection equipment (Respirators). Therefore, considering it with the risk of whole body toxicity and reproductive toxicity, exposure quantity of each imaginary scenario was calculated at 5.16, 1.72, and $0.43mg/m^3$. The average value was calculated at 0.02-0.58, 0.02-0.66 at 90 percent of cumulative distribution, 0.02-0.69 at 95 percent of cumulative distribution. Therefore, it was generally evaluated to be safe because all values were below 1. However, caution is required to prevent health hazard because it has hepatotoxicity and reproductive toxicity and risk of a high level momentary exposure, depending on the condition of workplace.

Annual Loss Probability Estimation of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames(SMRFs) using Seismic Fragility Analysis (지진취약도를 통한 철골모멘트골조의 연간 손실 평가)

  • Jun, Saemee;Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.517-524
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    • 2014
  • The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.