• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.301-312
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• 2010

Geochemical data have been regarded as one of the important environmental variables in the environmental management. Since they are often sampled at sparse locations, it is important not only to predict attribute values at unsampled locations, but also to assess the uncertainty attached to the prediction for further analysis. The main objective of this paper is to exemplify how indicator geostatistics can be effectively applied to geochemical data processing for providing decision-supporting information as well as spatial distribution of the geochemical data. A whole geostatistical analysis framework, which includes probabilistic uncertainty modeling, classification and risk analysis, was illustrated through a case study of cadmium mapping. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) was first modeled by indicator kriging, and then e-type estimates and conditional variance were computed for spatial distribution of cadmium and quantitative uncertainty measures, respectively. Two different classification criteria such as a probability thresholding and an attribute thresholding were applied to delineate contaminated and safe areas. Finally, additional sampling locations were extracted from the coefficient of variation that accounts for both the conditional variance and the difference between attribute values and thresholding values. It is suggested that the indicator geostatistical framework illustrated in this study be a useful tool for analyzing any environmental variables including geochemical data for decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.187-196
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• 2004

The health effects resulting from severe accidents of typical 1,000MWe KSNP(Korea Standard Nuclear Plant) PWR and typical 600MWe CANDU(CANada Deuterium Uranium) plants were estimated and compared. The population distribution of the site extending to 80km for both site were considered. The releaese fraction for various source term categories(STC) and core inventories were used in the estimation of the health effects risks by using the MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System2) code. Individuals are assumed to evacuate beyond 16km from the site. The health effects considered in this comparative study are early and cancer fatality risk, and the results are presented as CCDF(Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function) curves considering the occurrence probability of each STC's. According to the results, the early and cancer fatality risks of PHWR plants we lower than those of PWR plants. This is attributed the fact that the amount of radioactive mateials that released to the atmosphere resulting from the postulated severe accidents of PHWR plants are smaller than that of PWR plants. And, the dominating initiating event of STC that shows maximum early and cancer fatality risk is SGTR(Steam Generator Tube Rupture) for both plants. Therefore, the appropriated actions must be taken to reduce the occurrence probability and the amounts of radioactive materials released to the environment in order to protect the public for both PWR and PHWR plants.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.257-267
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• 2019

This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.

• 한국가스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.37-43
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• 2005

The questionnaires about the safety of the urban gas have been carried out for the end users. about 8 of 10 persons said that the urban gas Is safe to use, whereas $35\%$ of them said there exists a hazard of an accident in thier residences. There cannot be found the clear evidences that the understandings on the safety of the urban gas have no relations to their ages, sex, and monthly incomes, while the safety is less confidential to the highly educated, the accident-experienced, or the mans who are poor at the safety inspections. Most of the questioned man know the inspection knacks for the gas utilities, but only $60\%$ of them carry out it. They said that they do not feel the necessity of the inspection because they are inspected routinely by the suppliers or the inspection companies. This says that the end user does not concern the safety inspections, and in order to improve the dependency of the user for the self-inspections, the inspection staff should educate the user for the necessity and the knack of inspections to encourage the self-inspection of the gas utilities.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.517-524
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• 2014

The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-10
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• 2008

The seismic performance of a structure designed without consideration of seismic loading can be effectively enhanced through seismic rehabilitation. The appropriate level of rehabilitation should be determined based on the decision criteria that minimize the anticipated earthquake-related losses. To estimate the anticipated losses, seismic risk analysis should be performed considering the probabilistic characteristics of the hazard and the structural damage. This study presents the decision procedure in which the probabilistic seismic demand model is utilized for the effective estimation and minimization of the total seismic losses through seismic rehabilitation. The probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the structural damage for a specified time period are established in a closed form, and are combined with the loss functions to derive the expected seismic loss. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for making decisions on the seismic rehabilitation of structural systems.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.107-120
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• 2017

There are many wildfire risk indices worldwide, but objective comparisons between such various wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices have not been conducted for the wildfire cases in Korea. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis on the wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices for Korea using LDAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological dataset on a 1.5-km grid and MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images on a 1-km grid. We analyzed the meteorology-based wildfire risk indices such as the Australian FFDI(forest fire danger index), the Canadian FFMC(fine fuel moisture code), the American HI(Haines index), and the academically presented MNI(modified Nesterov index). Also we examined the satellite-based surface dryness indices such as NDDI(normalized difference drought index) and TVDI(temperature vegetation dryness index). As a result of the comparisons between the six indices regarding 120 wildfire cases with the area damaged over 1ha during the period between January 2013 and May 2017, we found that the FFDI and FFMC showed a good predictability for most wildfire cases but the MNI and TVDI were not suitable for Korea. The NDDI can be used as a proxy parameter for wildfire risk because its average CDF(cumulative distribution function) scores were stably high irrespective of fire size. The indices tested in this paper should be carefully chosen and used in an integrated way so that they can contribute to wildfire forecasting in Korea.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.5-12
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• 2013

The Hawaiian beet webworm (Spoladea recurvalis) is one of the serious insect pests found on red beet (Beta vulgaris var. conditiva) in Korea. The study was conducted to investigate the development period of S. recurvalis at various constant temperatures, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5 and $35.0^{\circ}C$, with $65{\pm}5%$ RH and a photoperiod of 16L:8D. The developmental period from egg to pre-adult was 51.0 days at $17.5^{\circ}C$ and 14.6 days at $35.0^{\circ}C$. The developmental period of S. recurvalis was decreased with increasing temperature. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature was fitted well by linear regression analysis ($R^2{\geq}0.87$). The lower developmental threshold and effective accumulative temperature of the total immature stage were $10.4^{\circ}C$ and 384.7 degree days, respectively. The nonlinear relationship between the temperature and developmental rate was well described by the Lactin model. The relationship between the cumulative frequency and normalized distributions of the developmental period for each life stage were fitted to the Weibull function with $R^2=0.63{\sim}0.87$.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.25-36
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• 2002

Window Probability Matching Method(WPMM) is achieved by matching identical probability density of rain intensities and radar reflectivities taken only from small window centered about the gage. The equation of $Z_{e}-R$ relationship is obtained and compared with data between a DWSR-88C radar and high density rain gage networks within 150km from radar site in summer season, 1998. The probability density of radar effective reflectivity is distributed with high frequency near 15dBZ. The frequency distribution of rain intensities shows that rain intensity is lower than 10mm/hr in most part of radar coverage area. As the result of $Z_{e}-R$ relationship using WPMM, curved line has shown to the log scale spatially and it can be explained more flexible than any straight-line power laws at the transformation to the rainfall amount from $Z_e$ value. During 3 months, total radar cumulative rainfall amount estimated by $Z=200R^{1.6}$ and WPMM relationships are 44 and 80 percentages of total raingage amount, respectively. Therefore, $Z_{e}-R$ relationships by WPMM may be widely needed a statistical method for the computation of accumulated precipitation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.117-130
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• 2005

In both deteministic user Optimal Traffic Assignment Model (UOTAM) and stochastic UOTAM, travel time, which is a major ccriterion for traffic loading over transportation network, is defined by the sum of link travel time and turn delay at intersections. In this assignment method, drivers actual route perception processes and choice behaviors, which can become main explanatory factors, are not sufficiently considered: therefore may result in biased traffic loading. Even though there have been some efforts in Stochastic UOTAM for reflecting drivers' route perception cost by assuming cumulative distribution function of link travel time, it has not been fundamental fruitions, but some trials based on the unreasonable assumptions of Probit model of truncated travel time distribution function and Logit model of independency of inter-link congestion. The critical reason why deterministic UOTAM have not been able to reflect route perception cost is that the route perception cost has each different value according to each origin, destination, and path connection the origin and destination. Therefore in order to find the optimum route between OD pair, route enumeration problem that all routes connecting an OD pair must be compared is encountered, and it is the critical reason causing computational failure because uncountable number of path may be enumerated as the scale of transportation network become bigger. The purpose of this study is to propose a method to enable UOTAM to reflect route perception cost without route enumeration between an O-D pair. For this purpose, this study defines a link as a least definition of path. Thus since each link can be treated as a path, in two links searching process of the link label based optimum path algorithm, the route enumeration between OD pair can be reduced the scale of finding optimum path to all links. The computational burden of this method is no more than link label based optimum path algorithm. Each different perception cost is embedded as a quantitative value generated by comparing the sub-path from the origin to the searching link and the searched link.