• Title/Summary/Keyword: Crop yield prediction

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A Smart Farm Environment Optimization and Yield Prediction Platform based on IoT and Deep Learning (IoT 및 딥 러닝 기반 스마트 팜 환경 최적화 및 수확량 예측 플랫폼)

  • Choi, Hokil;Ahn, Heuihak;Jeong, Yina;Lee, Byungkwan
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.672-680
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    • 2019
  • This paper proposes "A Smart Farm Environment Optimization and Yield Prediction Platform based on IoT and Deep Learning" which gathers bio-sensor data from farms, diagnoses the diseases of growing crops, and predicts the year's harvest. The platform collects all the information currently available such as weather and soil microbes, optimizes the farm environment so that the crops can grow well, diagnoses the crop's diseases by using the leaves of the crops being grown on the farm, and predicts this year's harvest by using all the information on the farm. The result shows that the average accuracy of the AEOM is about 15% higher than that of the RF and about 8% higher than the GBD. Although data increases, the accuracy is reduced less than that of the RF or GBD. The linear regression shows that the slope of accuracy is -3.641E-4 for the ReLU, -4.0710E-4 for the Sigmoid, and -7.4534E-4 for the step function. Therefore, as the amount of test data increases, the ReLU is more accurate than the other two activation functions. This paper is a platform for managing the entire farm and, if introduced to actual farms, will greatly contribute to the development of smart farms in Korea.

Evaluation of Site-specific Potential for Rice Production in Korea under the Changing Climate (지구온난화에 따른 우리나라 벼농사지대의 생산성 재평가)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Cho, Kyung-Sook;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.229-241
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    • 2006
  • Global air temperature has risen by $0.6^{\circ}C$ over the last one hundred years due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Moreover, this global warming trend is projected to continue in the future. This study was carried out to evaluate spatial variations in rice production areas by simulating rice-growth and development with projected high resolution climate data in Korea far 2011-2100, which was geospatially interpolated from the 25 km gridded data based on the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. Satellite remote sensing data were used to pinpoint the rice-growing areas, and corresponding climate data were aggregated to represent the official 'crop reporting county'. For the simulation experiment, we used a CERES-Rice model modified by introducing two equations to calculate the leaf appearance rate based on the effective temperature and existing leaf number and the final number of leaves based on day-length in the photoperiod sensitive phase of rice. We tested the performance of this model using data-sets obtained from transplanting dates and nitrogen fertilization rates experiments over three years (2002 to 2004). The simulation results showed a good performance of this model in heading date prediction [$R^2$=0.9586 for early (Odaebyeo), $R^2$=0.9681 for medium (Hwasungbyeo), and $R^2$=0.9477 for late (Dongjinbyeo) maturity cultivars]. A modified version of CERES-Rice was used to simulate the growth and development of three Japonica varieties, representing early, medium, and late maturity classes, to project crop status for climatological normal years between 2011 and 2100. In order to compare the temporal changes, three sets of data representing 3 climatological years (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were successively used to run the model. Simulated growth and yield data of the three Japonica cultivars under the observed climate for 1971-2000 was set as a reference. Compared with the current normal, heading date was accelerated by 7 days for 2011-2040 and 20 days for 2071-2100. Physiological maturity was accelerated by 15 days for 2011-2040 and 30 days for 2071-2100. Rice yield was in general reduced by 6-25%, 3-26%, and 3-25% per 10a in early, medium, and late maturity classes, respectively. However, mid to late maturing varieties showed an increased yield in northern Gyeonggi Province and in most of Kwangwon Province in 2071-2100.

Modeling for Predicting Yield and $\alpha$-Acid Content in Hop (Humulus lupulus L.) from Meteorological Elements II. A Model for Predicting $\alpha$-Acid Content (기상 요소에 따른 호프(Humulus lupulus L.)이 수량 및 $\alpha$-Acd 함량 예측 모형에 관한 연구 II $\alpha$-Acid 함량 예측 모형)

  • 박경열
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.323-328
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    • 1988
  • The hop alpha-acid content prediction model developed with meteorological elements in Hoeongseong was Y=28.369-0.003X$_1$+1.558X$_2$-1.953X$_3$-0.335X$_4$-0.003X$\sub$5/-0.119X$\sub$6/, with MSEp of 0.004, Rp$^2$ of 0.9987, Rap$_2$ of 0.9949 and Cp of 7.00. The total sunshine hours (X$_1$), the maximum temperature (X$_3$) and the total precipitation (X$\sub$5/) at flowering stage. the maximum temperature at flower bud differentiation stage (X$_4$) and the maximum temperature at cone ripening stage (X$\sub$6/) influenced on hop alpha .acid content as decrement weather elements. The maximum temperature at cone development stage(X$_2$) effected on ${\alpha}$-acid content as increment weather element.

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Damage of Whole Crop Maize in Abnormal Climate Using Machine Learning (이상기상 시 사일리지용 옥수수의 기계학습을 이용한 피해량 산출)

  • Kim, Ji Yung;Choi, Jae Seong;Jo, Hyun Wook;Kim, Moon Ju;Kim, Byong Wan;Sung, Kyung Il
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to estimate the damage of Whole Crop Maize (WCM) according to abnormal climate using machine learning and present the damage through mapping. The collected WCM data was 3,232. The climate data was collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration's meteorological data open portal. Deep Crossing is used for the machine learning model. The damage was calculated using climate data from the Automated Synoptic Observing System (95 sites) by machine learning. The damage was calculated by difference between the Dry matter yield (DMY)normal and DMYabnormal. The normal climate was set as the 40-year of climate data according to the year of WCM data (1978~2017). The level of abnormal climate was set as a multiple of the standard deviation applying the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) standard. The DMYnormal was ranged from 13,845~19,347 kg/ha. The damage of WCM was differed according to region and level of abnormal climate and ranged from -305 to 310, -54 to 89, and -610 to 813 kg/ha bnormal temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, respectively. The maximum damage was 310 kg/ha when the abnormal temperature was +2 level (+1.42 ℃), 89 kg/ha when the abnormal precipitation was -2 level (-0.12 mm) and 813 kg/ha when the abnormal wind speed was -2 level (-1.60 m/s). The damage calculated through the WMO method was presented as an mapping using QGIS. When calculating the damage of WCM due to abnormal climate, there was some blank area because there was no data. In order to calculate the damage of blank area, it would be possible to use the automatic weather system (AWS), which provides data from more sites than the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS).

Prediction of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity in Greenhouse via a Multilayer Perceptron Using Environmental Factors (환경요인을 이용한 다층 퍼셉트론 기반 온실 내 기온 및 상대습도 예측)

  • Choi, Hayoung;Moon, Taewon;Jung, Dae Ho;Son, Jung Eek
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2019
  • Temperature and relative humidity are important factors in crop cultivation and should be properly controlled for improving crop yield and quality. In order to control the environment accurately, we need to predict how the environment will change in the future. The objective of this study was to predict air temperature and relative humidity at a future time by using a multilayer perceptron (MLP). The data required to train MLP was collected every 10 min from Oct. 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2018 in an eight-span greenhouse ($1,032m^2$) cultivating mango (Mangifera indica cv. Irwin). The inputs for the MLP were greenhouse inside and outside environment data, and set-up and operating values of environment control devices. By using these data, the MLP was trained to predict the air temperature and relative humidity at a future time of 10 to 120 min. Considering typical four seasons in Korea, three-day data of the each season were compared as test data. The MLP was optimized with four hidden layers and 128 nodes for air temperature ($R^2=0.988$) and with four hidden layers and 64 nodes for relative humidity ($R^2=0.990$). Due to the characteristics of MLP, the accuracy decreased as the prediction time became longer. However, air temperature and relative humidity were properly predicted regardless of the environmental changes varied from season to season. For specific data such as spray irrigation, however, the numbers of trained data were too small, resulting in poor predictive accuracy. In this study, air temperature and relative humidity were appropriately predicted through optimization of MLP, but were limited to the experimental greenhouse. Therefore, it is necessary to collect more data from greenhouses at various places and modify the structure of neural network for generalization.

Prediction of chemical fertilizer consumption in relation to soil fertility improvement and various agriculturai technical factors (토양비옥도(土壤肥沃度) 증진(增進) 및 제(諸) 기술요인(技術要因)에 의(依)한 비료(肥料) 소비추세(消費趨勢) 전망(展望))

  • Ryu, In-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.183-199
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    • 1976
  • 1. The cultivated land in Korea has originally low fertility resulting in high dependence to fertilizers. 2. The total fertilizer requirement calculated by the Office of Rural Development (ORD) in 1976 was about 1,153 thousand mts, and the total amount of supply planned by the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishery was 1,010 thoushand mts which is close to the amount calculated by ORD. However, there is some gap between the amount of recommended (N, 11.6; $P_2O_5$: $K_2O$, 7.3kg/10a> and supply planned (N, 12.0; $P_2O_5$, 6.3; $K_2O$. 4.8kg/10a) fertilizers for each elements per unit area 3. For 15 years from 1960 to 1975 the fertilizer consumption of nitrogen was roughly increased from 200,000 mts to 500,000 mts; phosphorus, from 50,000 to 250,000 mts; potassium, from 10, 000 to 170,000 mts; accounting 2.5, 5, and 17 times of increase respectively. 4. The total fertilizer consumption for 5 years from 1967 to 1971 was about 100,000 mts and another 5years from 1971 to 1975 was 300,000 mts indicating three times increase. 5. The direct factors influenced to the increase of fertilizer consumption in recent years are 1) the dissemination of high yielding Tongil type rice varieties which are resistant to heavy fertilization 2) high price policy for agricaltural products 3) increased cultivation of vegetables:, fruits, and forages which require high level of fertilizers. The indirect factors are 1) dissemination of new improved agricultural techniques, 2, improvement of cultivated land conditions through irrigation system and land reform, 3) increased supply of silicate fertilizers, and 4) increase of farm income. 6. The percentage of total fertilizer consumption by rice (32%) and barley (25%) is about 57%. The ratio of total fertilizer consumption by vegetables and forages is expected to increase greatly. 7. Based on the increasing tendency of cultivated land and yield per unit area for last 10 years in each crop, total fertilizer consumptions in 1980, 1990, and 2000 year are estimated to 1,290,000, 1,580,000 and 1,870,000 mts respectively.

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Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5 (상세화된 CMIP5 기후변화전망의 다중모델앙상블 접근에 의한 농업기후지수 평가)

  • Chung, Uran;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.108-125
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    • 2015
  • The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the agro-climate index can always be changed since the index is not the absolute. Recently, many studies which consider uncertainty of future climate change have been actively conducted using multi-model ensemble (MME) approach by developing and improving dynamic and statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) output. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as growing degree day based on $5^{\circ}C$, plant period based on $5^{\circ}C$, crop period based on $10^{\circ}C$, and frost free day were calculated for assessment of the spatio-temporal variations and uncertainties of the indices according to climate change; the downscaled historical (1976-2005) and near future (2011-2040) RCP climate sceneries of AR5 were applied to the calculation of the index. The result showed four agro-climatic indices calculated by nine individual GCMs as well as MME agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that MME, as well as each individual GCM emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Seumjin and Yeoungsan). However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual GCMs showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of the four Rivers. The four agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were expected to increase in nine individual GCMs and MME in future climate scenarios. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required although the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual GCMs in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work.