• Title/Summary/Keyword: Crop model

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Predicting the Potential Habitat and Risk Assessment of Amaranthus patulus using MaxEnt (Maxent를 활용한 가는털비름(Amaranthus patulus)의 잠재서식지 예측 및 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Yong Ho;Na, Chea Sun;Hong, Sun Hea;Sohn, Soo In;Kim, Chang Suk;Lee, In Yong;Oh, Young Ju
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.672-679
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to predict the potential distribution and risk of invasive alien plant, Amaranthus patulus, in an agricultural area of South Korea. We collected 254 presence localities of A. patulus using field survey and literature search and stimulated the potential distribution area of A. patulus using maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) with six climatic variables. Two different kinds of agricultural risk index, raster risk index and regional risk index, were estimated. The 'raster risk index' was calculated by multiplying the potential distribution by the field area in $1{\times}1km$ and 'regional risk index' was calculated by multiplying the potential distribution by field area proportion in the total field of South Korea. The predicted potential distribution of A. patulus was almost matched with actual presence data. The annual mean temperature had the highest contribution for distribution modeling of A. patulus. Area under curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.711. The highest regions were Gwangju for potential distribution, Jeju for 'raster risk index' and Gyeongbuk for 'regional risk index'. This different ranks among the index showed the importance about the development of various risk index for evaluating invasive plant risk.

Long Range Forecast of Garlic Productivity over S. Korea Based on Genetic Algorithm and Global Climate Reanalysis Data (전지구 기후 재분석자료 및 인공지능을 활용한 남한의 마늘 생산량 장기예측)

  • Jo, Sera;Lee, Joonlee;Shim, Kyo Moon;Kim, Yong Seok;Hur, Jina;Kang, Mingu;Choi, Won Jun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2021
  • This study developed a long-term prediction model for the potential yield of garlic based on a genetic algorithm (GA) by utilizing global climate reanalysis data. The GA is used for digging the inherent signals from global climate reanalysis data which are both directly and indirectly connected with the garlic yield potential. Our results indicate that both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts reasonably capture the inter-annual variability of crop yields with temporal correlation coefficients significant at 99% confidence level and superior categorical forecast skill with a hit rate of 93.3% for 2 × 2 and 73.3% for 3 × 3 contingency tables. Furthermore, the GA method, which considers linear and non-linear relationships between predictors and predictands, shows superiority of forecast skill in terms of both stability and skill scores compared with linear method. Since our result can predict the potential yield before the start of farming, it is expected to help establish a long-term plan to stabilize the demand and price of agricultural products and prepare countermeasures for possible problems in advance.

An Analysis of the Economic Effects of the Pilot Project for Multiple-Purpose Utilization of Paddy Fields Focusing on Income and Welfare Changes (소득 및 후생 변화를 통한 농지범용화 시범사업의 경제적 효과 분석)

  • Lim, Che hwan;Ha, Yong hyun;Kim, Do hoon;An, Dong hwan;Yi, Hyang mi;Kim, Kwansoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2022
  • The food self-sufficiency rate of agricultural products in Korea, excluding rice, is around 20%, and the government is promoting various policies including a Multiple-Purpose Utilization of Paddy Fields project, to increase the self-sufficiency rate of major grains. The project for Multiple-Purpose Utilization of Paddy Fields is being promoted as a part of a program to create farmland infrastructure to facilitate the cultivation of crops other than rice in rice paddies, and pilot projects were started in four regions in 2020. The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic effects of the pilot project for Multiple-Purpose Utilization of Paddy Fields, and to propose policies to increase the effectiveness of the project. In order to analyze the economic effect, we estimated the change in farm income generated by switching from rice to other crops, and measured the effect of welfare change using the Equilibrium Displacement Model (EDM). As a result of the analysis, social welfare is expected to increase when the pilot project for Multiple-Purpose Utilization of Paddy Fields is implemented, and the income of the beneficiary farmers is also expected to improve compared to that of single-cropping when double-cropping is implemented. However, it was found that the economic feasibility of the project differs depending on the crops converted. Juksan-myeon, Gimje-si, which is an area where soybean production was successful, was analyzed from the viewpoint of increasing the economic feasibility of the pilot project. Their success factors were analyzed into four major factors: infrastructure, farming methods, education, and collaboration with local agricultural organizations. If such a success story can be utilized in the future project implementation process, it can contribute to the improvement of farm household income and national economic welfare.

Estimation of the Source Adult Population for Agrotis ipsilon (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Appearing in Early Spring in Korea: An Approach with Phenology Modeling (국내에서 이른 봄 출현하는 검거세미밤나방 성충집단의 기원 추정: 페놀로지 모형을 통한 접근)

  • Sori Choi;Jinwoo Heo;Subin Kim;Myeongeun Jwa;Yonggyun Shin;Dong-Soon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2023
  • The black cutworm, Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel), is an important crop pest worldwide that feeds more than 80 plant species including cabbage, potato, maize, wheat and bean, and this moth is a typical pest attacking underground parts of crops. It has been known in farm booklets that the larvae of A. ipsilon overwinter in the soil in Korea, but no definitive data exist yet. This study was conducted to evaluate that the specific appearance time of A. ipsilon observed actually in the field could be explained when we assumed that this pest overwinters in a form of larvae or pupae. Degree day-based phenology models were applied for tracking forward or backward to find the predicted developmental stage which developed at a specific stage found in the field. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that an initial population could be established in a group that does not overwinter as larvae or pupae in Korea. In other words, the appearance of adults in early March to April could not be explained by the presence of domestic overwintering populations. Populations that overwinter as larvae or pupae in Korea were able to emerge as adults in June to July at the earliest. Therefore, the group of adults appearing in early spring is highly likely to be a population that migrated from outside Korea. Taken together, it was estimated that the colony of A. ipsilon in Korea would be formed by a mixture of a migrant population through long-distance migration and a overwintering population.

Current Status and Perspective of Smart Vegetable Seedling Production Technology in the Republic of Korea (국내 스마트 채소 육묘 기술 개발 현황 및 전망)

  • Dong Hyeon Kang;So Young Lee;Hey Kyung Kim;Sewoong An
    • Journal of Practical Agriculture & Fisheries Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2024
  • In this study, we summarized the definition of smart vegetable seedling production technology, analysis of smart seedling production system, a hardware and software configuration model for smart seedling production system, research and development trends in smart seedling production system, and proposed future research and development plans for smart seedling production technology. Smart vegetable seedling production is a data-based seedling production, management, and distribution system that utilizes 4th Industrial Revolution technology to improve seedling productivity and quality. The production of vegetable seedlings using smart seedling production technology can be efficiently managed by collecting, analyzing, and managing information on seedlings, environment, and tasks at each stage of production by linking with the smart seedling integrated management system. However, there is still a lack of standardization of seedling standards and quality for each vegetable crop to establish smart seeding production technology, as well as development of smart seedling production element technology, which requires national wide R&D support.

Modeling of Estimating Soil Moisture, Evapotranspiration and Yield of Chinese Cabbages from Meteorological Data at Different Growth Stages (기상자료(氣象資料)에 의(依)한 배추 생육시기별(生育時期別) 토양수분(土壤水分), 증발산량(蒸發散量) 및 수량(收量)의 추정모형(推定模型))

  • Im, Jeong-Nam;Yoo, Soon-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.386-408
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    • 1988
  • A study was conducted to develop a model for estimating evapotranspiration and yield of Chinese cabbages from meteorological factors from 1981 to 1986 in Suweon, Korea. Lysimeters with water table maintained at 50cm depth were used to measure the potential evapotranspiration and the maximum evapotranspiration in situ. The actual evapotranspiration and the yield were measured in the field plots irrigated with different soil moisture regimes of -0.2, -0.5, and -1.0 bars, respectively. The soil water content throughout the profile was monitored by a neutron moisture depth gauge and the soil water potentials were measured using gypsum block and tensiometer. The fresh weight of Chinese cabbages at harvest was measured as yield. The data collected in situ were analyzed to obtain parameters related to modeling. The results were summarized as followings: 1. The 5-year mean of potential evapotranspiration (PET) gradually increased from 2.38 mm/day in early April to 3.98 mm/day in mid-June, and thereafter, decreased to 1.06 mm/day in mid-November. The estimated PET by Penman, Radiation or Blanney-Criddle methods were overestimated in comparison with the measured PET, while those by Pan-evaporation method were underestimated. The correlation between the estimated and the measured PET, however, showed high significance except for July and August by Blanney-Criddle method, which implied that the coefficients should be adjusted to the Korean conditions. 2. The meteorological factors which showed hgih correlation with the measured PET were temperature, vapour pressure deficit, sunshine hours, solar radiation and pan-evaporation. Several multiple regression equations using meteorological factors were formulated to estimate PET. The equation with pan-evaporation (Eo) was the simplest but highly accurate. PET = 0.712 + 0.705Eo 3. The crop coefficient of Chinese cabbages (Kc), the ratio of the maximum evapotranspiration (ETm) to PET, ranged from 0.5 to 0.7 at early growth stage and from 0.9 to 1.2 at mid and late growth stages. The regression equation with respect to the growth progress degree (G), ranging from 0.0 at transplanting day to 1.0 at the harvesting day, were: $$Kc=0.598+0.959G-0.501G^2$$ for spring cabbages $$Kc=0.402+1.887G-1.432G^2$$ for autumn cabbages 4. The soil factor (Kf), the ratio of the actual evapotranspiration to the maximum evapotranspiration, showed 1.0 when the available soil water fraction (f) was higher than a threshold value (fp) and decreased linearly with decreasing f below fp. The relationships were: Kf=1.0 for $$f{\geq}fp$$ Kf=a+bf for f$$I{\leq}Esm$$ Es = Esm for I > Esm 6. The model for estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) was based on the water balance neglecting capillary rise as: ETa=PET. Kc. Kf+Es 7. The model for estimating relative yield (Y/Ym) was selected among the regression equations with the measured ETa as: Y/Ym=a+bln(ETa) The coefficients and b were 0.07 and 0.73 for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.37 and 0.66 for autumn Chinese cabbages, respectively. 8. The estimated ETa and Y/Ym were compared with the measured values to verify the model established above. The estimated ETa showed disparities within 0.29mm/day for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.19mm/day for autumn Chinese cabbages. The average deviation of the estimated relative yield were 0.14 and 0.09, respectively. 9. The deviations between the estimated values by the model and the actual values obtained from three cropping field experiments after the completion of the model calibration were within reasonable confidence range. Therefore, this model was validated to be used in practical purpose.

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Analysis of Greenhouse Thermal Environment by Model Simulation (시뮬레이션 모형에 의한 온실의 열환경 분석)

  • 서원명;윤용철
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.215-235
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    • 1996
  • The thermal analysis by mathematical model simulation makes it possible to reasonably predict heating and/or cooling requirements of certain greenhouses located under various geographical and climatic environment. It is another advantages of model simulation technique to be able to make it possible to select appropriate heating system, to set up energy utilization strategy, to schedule seasonal crop pattern, as well as to determine new greenhouse ranges. In this study, the control pattern for greenhouse microclimate is categorized as cooling and heating. Dynamic model was adopted to simulate heating requirements and/or energy conservation effectiveness such as energy saving by night-time thermal curtain, estimation of Heating Degree-Hours(HDH), long time prediction of greenhouse thermal behavior, etc. On the other hand, the cooling effects of ventilation, shading, and pad ||||&|||| fan system were partly analyzed by static model. By the experimental work with small size model greenhouse of 1.2m$\times$2.4m, it was found that cooling the greenhouse by spraying cold water directly on greenhouse cover surface or by recirculating cold water through heat exchangers would be effective in greenhouse summer cooling. The mathematical model developed for greenhouse model simulation is highly applicable because it can reflects various climatic factors like temperature, humidity, beam and diffuse solar radiation, wind velocity, etc. This model was closely verified by various weather data obtained through long period greenhouse experiment. Most of the materials relating with greenhouse heating or cooling components were obtained from model greenhouse simulated mathematically by using typical year(1987) data of Jinju Gyeongnam. But some of the materials relating with greenhouse cooling was obtained by performing model experiments which include analyzing cooling effect of water sprayed directly on greenhouse roof surface. The results are summarized as follows : 1. The heating requirements of model greenhouse were highly related with the minimum temperature set for given greenhouse. The setting temperature at night-time is much more influential on heating energy requirement than that at day-time. Therefore It is highly recommended that night- time setting temperature should be carefully determined and controlled. 2. The HDH data obtained by conventional method were estimated on the basis of considerably long term average weather temperature together with the standard base temperature(usually 18.3$^{\circ}C$). This kind of data can merely be used as a relative comparison criteria about heating load, but is not applicable in the calculation of greenhouse heating requirements because of the limited consideration of climatic factors and inappropriate base temperature. By comparing the HDM data with the results of simulation, it is found that the heating system design by HDH data will probably overshoot the actual heating requirement. 3. The energy saving effect of night-time thermal curtain as well as estimated heating requirement is found to be sensitively related with weather condition: Thermal curtain adopted for simulation showed high effectiveness in energy saving which amounts to more than 50% of annual heating requirement. 4. The ventilation performances doting warm seasons are mainly influenced by air exchange rate even though there are some variations depending on greenhouse structural difference, weather and cropping conditions. For air exchanges above 1 volume per minute, the reduction rate of temperature rise on both types of considered greenhouse becomes modest with the additional increase of ventilation capacity. Therefore the desirable ventilation capacity is assumed to be 1 air change per minute, which is the recommended ventilation rate in common greenhouse. 5. In glass covered greenhouse with full production, under clear weather of 50% RH, and continuous 1 air change per minute, the temperature drop in 50% shaded greenhouse and pad & fan systemed greenhouse is 2.6$^{\circ}C$ and.6.1$^{\circ}C$ respectively. The temperature in control greenhouse under continuous air change at this time was 36.6$^{\circ}C$ which was 5.3$^{\circ}C$ above ambient temperature. As a result the greenhouse temperature can be maintained 3$^{\circ}C$ below ambient temperature. But when RH is 80%, it was impossible to drop greenhouse temperature below ambient temperature because possible temperature reduction by pad ||||&|||| fan system at this time is not more than 2.4$^{\circ}C$. 6. During 3 months of hot summer season if the greenhouse is assumed to be cooled only when greenhouse temperature rise above 27$^{\circ}C$, the relationship between RH of ambient air and greenhouse temperature drop($\Delta$T) was formulated as follows : $\Delta$T= -0.077RH+7.7 7. Time dependent cooling effects performed by operation of each or combination of ventilation, 50% shading, pad & fan of 80% efficiency, were continuously predicted for one typical summer day long. When the greenhouse was cooled only by 1 air change per minute, greenhouse air temperature was 5$^{\circ}C$ above outdoor temperature. Either method alone can not drop greenhouse air temperature below outdoor temperature even under the fully cropped situations. But when both systems were operated together, greenhouse air temperature can be controlled to about 2.0-2.3$^{\circ}C$ below ambient temperature. 8. When the cool water of 6.5-8.5$^{\circ}C$ was sprayed on greenhouse roof surface with the water flow rate of 1.3 liter/min per unit greenhouse floor area, greenhouse air temperature could be dropped down to 16.5-18.$0^{\circ}C$, whlch is about 1$0^{\circ}C$ below the ambient temperature of 26.5-28.$0^{\circ}C$ at that time. The most important thing in cooling greenhouse air effectively with water spray may be obtaining plenty of cool water source like ground water itself or cold water produced by heat-pump. Future work is focused on not only analyzing the feasibility of heat pump operation but also finding the relationships between greenhouse air temperature(T$_{g}$ ), spraying water temperature(T$_{w}$ ), water flow rate(Q), and ambient temperature(T$_{o}$).

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Development and Adult Life Span of Aphidoletes aphidimyza (Rondani) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) Fed on the Melon Aphid, Aphis gossypii Glover or the Green Peach Aphid, Myzus persicae($S\"{u}lzer$) (Homoptera: Aphididae) (목화진딧물(Aphis gossypii)과 복숭아혹진딧물(Myzus persicae) (Homoptera: Aphididae)을 먹이로 한 진디혹파리[Aphidoletes aphidimyza (Rondani)] (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae)의 발육 및 성충수명)

  • Kim Tae-Heung;Kim Ji-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.43 no.4 s.137
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    • pp.297-304
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    • 2004
  • The development of Aphidoletes aphidimyza, an aphidophagous gall midge, was studied at various constant temperatures ranging from 15 to $35^{\circ}C$, with $65{\pm}5\%$ RH, and a photo-period of 16L:8D. When A. aphidimyra was fed either on Aphis gossypii or Myzus persicae, it took 43.9 and 44.5 days, respectively, to develop from egg to pupa at $15^{\circ}C$, whereas at $25^{\circ}C$, 14.3 and 15.8 days. The developmental zero was 10.7 and $10.0^{\circ}C$, respectively, while the effective accumuative temperatures were 210.8 and 245.5 day-degrees. The nonlinear shape of temperature-dependent development, shown by A. aphidimyza when fed on either species of the aphids, was well described by the modified Sharpe and DeMichele model. When distribution model of completion time of development for each growth stage was expressed as physiological age and fitted to the Weibull fuction, the completion time of development gradually shortened from egg to larva, and to pupa. In addition, the coefficient of determination $r^2$ ranged between 0.86-0.93 and 0.85-0.94, respectively providing a good approximation of cumulative developmental rates. The life span of adult was 8.7 and 9.2 days at $15^{\circ}C$, and 3.1 and 2.7 days at $30^{\circ}C$, respectively. Egg incubation period was relatively short at $35^{\circ}C$ but hatchability was less than $50\%$ and the mortality of the larva at $35^{\circ}C$ reached $100\%$. At $30^{\circ}C$, the time of development lengthened and the adult longevity was short suggesting ill effect of high temperatures. Even though the life span of adults at $15^{\circ}C$ was relatively long, none moved freely in the rearing cage and no oviposition occurred. Accordingly, in case A. aphidimyza is adopted to suppress phytophagus aphid populations, it could be applicable to cropping systems with ambient temperatures above $20^{\circ}C$ and below $30^{\circ}C$. Within this range, A. aphidimyza adults was observed to be active and oviposit fully.

Development and Application of the SWAT HRU Mapping Module for Estimation of Groundwater Pollutant Loads for Each HRU in the SWAT Model (SWAT HRU별 지하수 오염부하량 산정을 위한 SWAT HRU Mapping Module 개발 및 적용)

  • Ryu, Ji Chul;Mun, Yuri;Moon, Jongpil;Kim, Ik Jae;Ok, Yong Sik;Jang, Won Seok;Kang, Hyunwoo;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.49-70
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    • 2011
  • The numerous efforts have been made in understanding generation and transportation mechanism of nonpoint source pollutants from agricultural areas. Also, the water quality degradation has been exacerbated over the years in many parts of Korea as well as other countries. Nonpoint source pollutants are transported into waterbodies with direct runoff and baseflow. It has been generally thought that groundwater quality is not that severe compared with surface water quality. However its impacts on groundwater in the vicinity of stream quality is not negligible in agricultural areas. The SWAT model has been widely used in hydrology and water quality studies worldwide because of its flexibilities and accuracies. The spatial property of each HRU, which is the basic computational element, is not presented. Thus, the SWAT HRU mapping module was developed in this study and was applied to the study watershed to evaluate recharge rate and $NO_3-N$ loads in groundwater. The $NO_3-N$ loads in groundwater on agricultural fields were higher than on forests because of commercial fertilizers and manure applied in agricultural fields. The $NO_3-N$ loads were different among various crops because of differences in crop nutrient uptake, amount of fertilizer applied, soil properties in the field. As shown in this study, the SWAT HRU mapping module can be efficiently used to evaluate the pollutant contribution via baseflow in agricultural watershed.

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Prediction of Transpiration Rate of Lettuces (Lactuca sativa L.) in Plant Factory by Penman-Monteith Model (Penman-Monteith 모델에 의한 식물공장 내 상추(Lactuca sativa L.)의 증산량 예측)

  • Lee, June Woo;Eom, Jung Nam;Kang, Woo Hyun;Shin, Jong Hwa;Son, Jung Eek
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.182-187
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    • 2013
  • In closed plant production system like plant factory, changes in environmental factors should be identified for conducting efficient environmental control as well as predicting energy consumption. Since high relative humidity (RH) is essential for crop production in the plant factory, transpiration is closely related with RH and should be quantified. In this study, four varieties of lettuces (Lactuca sativa L.) were grown in a plant factory, and the leaf areas and transpiration rates of the plants according to DAT (day after transplanting) were measured. The coefficients of the simplified Penman-Monteith equation were calibrated in order to calculate the transpiration rate in the plant factory and the total amount of transpiration during cultivation period was predicted by simulation. The following model was used: $E_d=a*(1-e^{-k*LAI})*RAD_{in}+b*LAI*VPD_d$ (at daytime) and $E_n=b*LAI*VPD_n$ (at nighttime) for estimating transpiration of the lettuce in the plant factory. Leaf area and transpiration rate increased with DAT as exponential growth. Proportional relationship was obtained between leaf area and transpiration rate. Total amounts of transpiration of lettuces grown in plant factory could be obtained by the models with high $r^2$ values. The results indicated the simplified Penman-Monteith equation could be used to predict water requirements as well as heating and cooling loads required in plant factory system.