• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.228-233
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• 2021

In this study, we analyze the credit information (loan, delinquency information, etc.) of individual business owners to generate voluminous training data to establish a bankruptcy prediction model through a partial synthetic training technique. Furthermore, we evaluate the prediction performance of the newly generated data compared to the actual data. When using conditional tabular generative adversarial networks (CTGAN)-based training data generated by the experimental results (a logistic regression task), the recall is improved by 1.75 times compared to that obtained using the actual data. The probability that both the actual and generated data are sampled over an identical distribution is verified to be much higher than 80%. Providing artificial intelligence training data through data synthesis in the fields of credit rating and default risk prediction of individual businesses, which have not been relatively active in research, promotes further in-depth research efforts focused on utilizing such methods.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.595-605
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• 2021

The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of "demand following" and "supply leading" exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008-2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.73-92
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• 2020

Purpose - The letter of credit has been playing a major role to diminish overall risks which exist among concerned parties even though there are differences such as language, culture, law, and distance. This paper reviews essence of the letter of credit and its transaction principles, as well as overall practical questions based on the L/C transaction principle. It also investigates the risk of fraud occurrences in L/C transactions and the importance of fraud prevention and preventive measures in international L/C transactions, including the Fraud Rule, which is a major topic to consider in business transactions. Design/methodology - It is considered that an importing country's concerned parties and an exporting country's concerned parties face different situations. This study employs the existing framework to identify liability, responsibility, and obligation for all concerned parties across countries. Using a quite direct measurement of principles in the letter of credit, such as principle of independence, principle of abstraction, and principle of strictness and coincidence, we studied these differences. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follow. The paper enhances the efficiency of the L/C payment method to provide fraud generated from L/C transactions, presentation of a theoretical framework about fraud and fraud prevention, which international trading companies should acknowledge in a material way based on fraud risk resulting from taking advantage of L/C transaction principles. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on fraud accidents in L/C transactions by taking bad advantage of the characteristics of the letter of credit without suggesting risks of fraud. This paper attempts to evaluate and provide preventive measures as a solution for fraud and risky international business in a letter of credit transaction. This area of trade studies is underexplored, both empirically and theoretically, although the issue has long been important to Korean and world community foreign trade.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.91-100
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• 2000

In 1997 the recession of Korean economy brought about the bankruptcy of large corporations and the large size of non-Performing financial assets which led to IMF financial crisis. One of the major reasons for IMF financial crisis was poor loan management of domestic financial institutions . During the restructuring process of financial institutions since the IMF financial crisis, the importance of the loan management has been recognized. Especially. financial institutions' credit allocation had been concentrated on a few big conglomerates and their subsidies as well as some specific business areas. Hence, risk-diversifying portfolio effects were not reflected in any loan portfolios. The IMF financial crisis in 1997 has clearly showed that credit-risk management is essential not only for individuals' loan but also for portfolios consisting of various loans The main objective of this paper is to provide some suggestions on the direction for financial institutions in Korea to improve their loan portfolio management. Particularly, for the effective management of loan portfolios, this paper introduces quantitative credit-risk management schemes such as KMV models and CreditMetrics which are commonly used in financial institutions in advanced countries. Financial institutions in Korea should make their best efforts to establish a more scientific as well as quantitative loan portfolio management.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.199-208
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• 2017

This study investigates the components and rating system of reliable technology credit information for a technology finance donor who is a consumer of the information and aims to create an effective and optimal technology credit appraisal system to enlarge technology finance supply. Firstly, we calculate the optimal TCAR which becomes the maximum AUROC through the combination of ratio change, verify the substitution possibility between TAR and CR through the existing CR and system gap simulation, and propose a rating system by which financial institutes can utilize the TCAR as a credit rating. As a result, 70% : 30% is the most suitable as the weighted combination ratio of credit rating : technology rating. As a result of this study, we confirmed the possibility that the technical credit rating information could be substituted by the credit rating or the technology appraisal rating. Furthermore, it also suggests that sophisticated risk management is possible through using technology credit rating that are combined with credit and technology appraisal rating.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.87-103
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• 2019

L/C(Letter of Credit) is a common payment term designed to prevent credit risk in international trade. However, most companies prefer T/T (Telegraphic Transfer) payment due to its time and cost efficiency. According to related statistics, more than 70% of international trade contracts are based on T/T rather than other payment terms. The time required from the export negotiation to the completion of the export transaction and collection in international trade is very long. In this process, disputes related to settlement are continuous, so caution should be exercised. Therefore, whether or not the export payment is recovered in a timely manner is the core issue of trade transactions for exporters. The purpose of this study is to identify problems that cause delayed payments during settlement by the remittance (T/T) method, which can lead to settlement risk, in order to investigate those factors which can lead to delays in payments and increased risk as well as to determine ways to prevent such factors in advance. According to empirical findings, trading experience, transaction duration, and contract contents can be important determinants in terms of payment delays. Industry uniqueness and market uncertainty were found to be in opposition to the hypothesized relationships. The results of this study will be useful for trading companies to reduce their payment risk.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.63
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• pp.245-260
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• 2014

This study is aimed to summarize a tense situation of Risk management for Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprise in 2013 and to investigate trade insurance of K-sure. Now we have to find a new way to protect Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprises from uncertain environment and also need to prevent a recurrence of parallel cases in the domain of South-North economic cooperation in Korean peninsula. There are two method to protect Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprises. First they rely on the Korea government for protection. Second they need to effect trade insurance of K-sure. such as Export Credit Guaranty or Short-term Export Insurance. They shall create a wise predictable environment to protect Kaesong Industrial Business Enterprises themselves without resort to Korea government. Of course there are many things left behind to consider I hope it will be helpful to those who prepare South-North economic cooperation especially in Kaesong Industrial Complex.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.58
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• pp.179-213
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• 2013

While a performance type guarantee is required as a security for non-performance risk by a seller, a payment guarantee is used as a security for non-payment risk by a buyer(or a borrower in a loan agreement). A payment guarantee is a type of independent bank guarantee, bank guarantee, bond, demand guarantee, or standby letter of credit. A guarantor accepts a credit risk of a principal which is normally a buyer in a contract for sale of goods. A payment guarantee is independent of the underlying relationship between the applicant and the beneficiary. The guarantor is only empowered to examine the beneficiary's demand and determine the payment on its face to the terms of the guarantee. A payment guarantee is thus different from a suretyship. The principle of independence carries a significant advantages for a guarantor as well as for a beneficiary. While a documentary credit requires B/L, commercial invoice, packing list, inspection certificate, etc., a typical payment guarantee does not require any evidence for a seller's performance of the underlying contract other than written demand. In this respect payment guarnatee can be a more secured facility than a documentary credit. A payment guarantee normally comes into force from the issuing date and shall remain in effect until all sums guaranteed shall be paid in full by a buyer(or a borrower) or by a guarantor. Although a guarantor shall pay a demand made in accordance with the terms and conditions of the payment guarantee, a payment demand may be denied when it is determined to be abusive or unfair.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.647-654
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• 2021

This study examines the non-performing loans of rural banks and macroeconomic factors in Indonesia, including inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. Theoretically, the existence of erratic macroeconomic conditions can affect the level of non-performing credit risk in rural credit banks in Indonesia. The effect of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans has a different response for each economic sector. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates) and bank-specific factors (credit) on the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) of Rural Banks in Indonesia for the period from January 2015 to December 2018. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation to determine the effect of independent variables consisting of macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors. Based on the estimation results of the Vector Error Correction Model, three variables that have a positive and significant effect on long-term non-performing loans are credit, inflation, and interest rates. Meanwhile, in the short term, there are only two variables that have a positive and significant effect on non-performing loans, namely, credit and interest rates. Inflation and exchange rate variables have a negative and insignificant effect on bad credit in the short term.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.50
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• pp.215-250
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• 2011

Korean won overseas construction projects worth 71.6 billion US Dollars in 2010, which exceeded that of 2009 by 45.6%. An overseas construction project is a transaction of large scale, long term project, many parties participating, deferred payment, and of high-technology. It contributes to foreign currency earning, and also leads the nation's export restructuring work towards high value-added one. There are various kinds of risks towards the relevant parties respectively, which are key elements in successfully performing the overseas construction project. There are completion risk, financing risk, operating risk, revenue risk etc, in an employer's place. A contractor may be confronted with payment risk, issuance risk of performance bond, financing risk, performance risk of sub-contractors, and exchange rate risk. In lenders place there are repayment risk, completion risk, and political risk in the host country. In order to mitigate risks, the parties shall take relevant measures or require relevant securities. A contractor needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer in respect of payment risk, and can also request export insurance cover by the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation(the former 'Korea Export Insurance Corporation"). An employer can require a contractor to provide performance bond in respect of completion risk, and employ a well-known first class bank as a mandated arranger to arrange financing with regard to completion risk. Lenders needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer and accomplish feasibility study of the project. Lenders can request insurance cover from export credit agency. Once the parties assess the respective risks and obtain relevant securities, the project will be successfully completed. The success of the project will be sure to bring the parties involved enormous profits and another opportunity to participate in overseas construction project afterwards.