• 제목/요약/키워드: Crash Probability Distribution

검색결과 2건 처리시간 0.017초

The working experience of internal control personnel and crash risk

  • RYU, Hae-Young;CHAE, Soo-Joon
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제10권12호
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2019
  • Purpose : This study examines The impact of human resource investment in internal control on stock price crash risk. Effective internal control ensures that information provided is complete and accurate, financial statements are reliable. By overseeing management, internal control systems can reduce agency costs between management and outside parties. In Korea, firms have to disclose information about internal control systems. The working experience of human resources in internal control systems is also provided for interested parties. If a firm hires more experienced internal control personnel, it can better facilitate the disclosure of information. Prior studies reported that information asymmetry between managers and investors increases future stock price crash risk. Therefore, the longer working experience internal control personnel have, the lower probability stock crashes have. Research design, data and methodology : This study analyzed the association between the working experience of internal control personnel and crash risk using regression analysis on KOSPI listed companies for fiscal years 2016 through 2017. The sample consists of 1,034 firm-years of non-financial firms whose fiscal year end on December 31. Career spanning data of internal control personnel was collected from internal control reports. The professionalism(IC_EXP) was measured as the logarithm of the average working experience of internal control personnel in months. Negative conditional skewness(NSKEW) and down-to-up volatility (DUVOL) are used to measure firm-specific crash risk. Both measures are based on firm-specific weekly returns derived from the expanded market model. Results : We find that work experience in internal control environment is negatively related to stock price crashes. Specifically, skewness(NSKEW) and volatility (DUVOL) are reduced when firms have longer tenure of human resources in internal control division. The results imply that firms with experienced internal control personnel are less likely to experience stock price crashes. Conclusions : Stock price crashes occur when investors realize that stock prices have been inflated due to information asymmetry. There is a learning effect when internal control processes are done repetitively. Thus, firms with more experienced internal control personnel could manage their internal control more effectively. The results of this study suggest that firms could decrease information asymmetry by investing in human resources for their internal control system.

저고도 운용 고정익 항공기의 고장 시 추락지점 및 속도 분포 연구 (Research on The Crash Location and Speed Distribution of Low Altitude Fixed-Wing Aircraft)

  • 남홍수;박배선;이학태
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제50권1호
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2022
  • 도심의 교통체증 문제를 해결하기 위해 eVTOL(Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) 항공기를 이용한 도심항공교통(UAM) 개념이 등장하여, 많은 국내외 기간들의 연구가 진행되고 있다. 하지만 도심 위를 필연적으로 비행하게 되는 eVTOL 기체가 차세대 교통수단으로 자리 잡기 위해서는 안전성의 확립이 필수적이다. 추락 시 위험도는 항공 안전과 관련된 대표적인 요소이며, 위험도 분석을 위해서는 돌발 상황으로 인한 기체의 추락 및 충돌 지점 예측이 필요하다. 고정익 모드로 운항하는 비행체의 경우 자세 혹은 방향을 결정하는 데 조종면이 큰 역할을 차지한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 eVTOL 기체의 추락 시 위험도를 분석하기 위해 추진 시스템이 고장 난 기체의 조종면 각도에 따른 추락 지점의 분포를 추정하는 방법을 제시한다. 여기서, 성능과 형상이 공개된 eVTOL 기체를 대상으로 분석한 데이터를 사용하였다. 또한, 초기 조건에 따른 추락 지점의 분포와 확률을 계산하여 추락할 확률이 높은 구간을 도출하였으며, 추락 순간의 속도를 계산하였다.