• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cournot model

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The Optimal Bidding Strategy based on Error Backpropagation Algorithm in a Two-Way Bidding Pool Applying Cournot Model (쿠르노 모형을 적용한 양방향입찰 풀시장에서 오차 역전파 알고리즘을 이용한 최적 입찰전략수립)

  • Kwon, Byeong-Gook;Lee, Seung-Chul;Kim, Jong-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.475-478
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    • 2003
  • 본 논문에서는 쿠르노 모형을 적용한 양방향입찰 전력 풀시장에서 입찰에 참여하는 발전기가 최대 이익을 얻기 위한 입찰전략으로서 신경회로망의 오차 역전파 알고리즘을 이용하여 최적 입찰발전량과 입찰가격을 수립하는 기법에 관하여 연구한다. 전력시장 환경은 n 개의 발전기들이 참여하는 비협조적 불완전정보 시장으로 설정하고 Bayesian의 조건부 확률이론을 적용하여 상대 발전기들의 발전비용함수와 시장의 수요함수를 추정하여 발전기 상호간 쿠르노-내쉬균형점을 이루는 최적 입찰발전량을 예측한다. 그리고 이익을 극대화시키기 위해 오차 역전파 알고리즘을 이용하여 시장의 가격 탄력성과 쿠르노 시장균형가격에 연결가중치를 조절함으로써 입찰가격이 계통한계가격에 근접하도록 최적 입찰전략을 수립한다.

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A Note on Environmental Policy Measures in a Green Market (Green market과 환경정책수단의 오염감축효과에 대한 소고(小考))

  • Rhee, Hosaeng
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 2004
  • A green market refers to a market that consists of environmentally aware consumers. A few researches have been carried out on the effects of environmental policy measures in a green market. These existing researches were based on a vertical differentiation model with firms' price-setting behavior, and derived that unit emission standard and environmental product taxes could not reduce the amount of pollution emission. This note considers a vertical differentiation model with firms' quantity-setting behavior, and shows that, contrary to the previous result, the amount of pollution emission is reduced by the introduction of unit emission standard. This implies the importance of the nature of firms' interaction in figuring out the pollution abatement effect of environmental policy measures in a green market.

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The Method for Inducing Demand Curve of Cournot Model for forecasting the Equilibrium of Repeated Game in Electricity Market (전력시장의 반복게임에 적용하기 위한 쿠르노 모델의 역수요함수 및 균형점 산출)

  • Kang Dong Joo;Lee Kun Dae;Hur Jin;Kim Tae Hyun;Moon Young Hwan;Jung Ku Hyung;Kim Bal Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.695-697
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    • 2004
  • 현재 전력시장에서 발생하는 게이밍을 반영하기 위한 수리적 모델로서 가장 보편적으로 사용되는 이론 중의 하나가 쿠르노 모델이다. 쿠르노 모델을 실제전력시장에 적용할 때 가장 어려운 점 중의 하나는 정화한 해당 모델에 사용되는 수요와 시장가격간의 관계를 정식화한 수요반웅함수(혹은 역수요함수)를 구하는 것이 다. 기존 모델의 경우 장기간에 걸친 탐문조사나 데이터를 바탕으로 가격탄력성을 구하는 방식을 취하고 있다. 그러나 수요는 전기설비의 교체 소비자의 기호 등 여러가지 변수로 지속적으로 변할 수 있기 때문에 이러한 고정적인 가격탄력성을 적용하는 것은 문제점이 될 수 있기 때문에 본 논문에서는 이러한 가격탄력성을 일정 거래주기 마다 갱신해줄 수 있는 방법을 제안하고자 한다.

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Limit Pricing by Noncooperative Oligopolists (과점산업(寡占産業)에서의 진입제한가격(進入制限價格))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 1990
  • A Milgrom-Roberts style signalling model of limit pricing is developed to analyze the possibility and the scope of limit pricing in general, noncooperative oligopolies. The model contains multiple incumbent firms facing a potential entrant and assumes an information asymmetry between incombents and the potential entrant about the market demand. There are two periods in the model. In period 1, n incumbent firms simultaneously and noncooperatively choose quantities. At the end of period 1, the potential entrant observes the market price and makes an entry decision. In period 2, depending on the entry decision of the entrant, n' or (n+1) firms choose quantities again before the game terminates. Since the choice of incumbent firms in period 1 depends on their information about demand, the market price in period 1 conveys information about the market demand. Thus, there is a systematic link between the market price and the profitability of entry. Using Bayes-Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we find that there exist some demand conditions under which incumbent firms will limit price. In symmetric equilibria, incumbent firms each produce an output that is greater than the Cournot output and induce a price that is below the Cournot price. In doing so, each incumbent firm refrains from maximizing short-run profit and supplies a public good that is entry deterrence. The reason that entry is deterred by such a reduced price is that it conveys information about the demand of the industry that is unfavorable to the entrant. This establishes the possibility of limit pricing by noncooperative oligopolists in a setting that is fully rational, and also generalizes the result of Milgrom and Roberts to general oligopolies, confirming Bain's intuition. Limit pricing by incumbents explained above can be interpreted as a form of credible collusion in which each firm voluntarily deviates from myopic optimization in order to deter entry using their superior information. This type of implicit collusion differs from Folk-theorem type collusions in many ways and suggests that a collusion can be a credible one even in finite games as long as there is information asymmetry. Another important result is that as the number of incumbent firms approaches infinity, or as the industry approaches a competitive one, the probability that limit pricing occurs converges to zero and the probability of entry converges to that under complete information. This limit result confirms the intuition that as the number of agents sharing the same private information increases, the value of the private information decreases, and the probability that the information gets revealed increases. This limit result also supports the conventional belief that there is no entry problem in a competitive market. Considering the fact that limit pricing is generally believed to occur at an early stage of an industry and the fact that many industries in Korea are oligopolies in their infant stages, the theoretical results of this paper suggest that we should pay attention to the possibility of implicit collusion by incumbent firms aimed at deterring new entry using superior information. The long-term loss to the Korean economy from limit pricing can be very large if the industry in question is a part of the world market and the domestic potential entrant whose entry is deterred could .have developed into a competitor in the world market. In this case, the long-term loss to the Korean economy should include the lost opportunity in the world market in addition to the domestic long-run welfare loss.

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The Effects of the Allocation and Accounting Methods of GHG Allowances on Firms' Financial Positions (배출권 할당 및 회계처리 방식이 기업의 시장 지위에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Hyungna;Hong, Inkee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.489-522
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    • 2015
  • According to Law on Allocation and Trading of GHG Allowances of 2013 in Korea as well as the 2014 National Master Plan for Korean Emissions Trading System, the System should be designed to minimize the change in the market positions of the affected firms. In this paper, we investigate how that principle might become ineffective by the ways of distributing allowances and applying different accounting methods using a Cournot duopoly model. Although the way of allocating allowances freely to firms combined with accounting them for having no values would minimize their market positions, it would not the most cost-effective way of GHG reduction since it does not provide financial market with accurate informations.

A Study on Korean Firms' Outward FDIs to China (중국 내 순차적 직접투자와 경영 전략적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Yim, Hyung-Rok;Chung, Wonjin
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.47-66
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    • 2014
  • A noticeable aspect of Korean firms' outward sequential FDIs to China is that they occur sequentially, which means that they implement the outward FDIs to China with a long-term perspective. To analyze the strategic advantages of sequential investment, we introduce Cournot type quantity competition model. According to the model, three important implications are derived. First, sequential FDIs enhances the Korean parents' production capabilities. Second, the parents are more likely to establish new Chinese subsidiaries as they stay longer in China. Third, the production effect of sequential investments incurs more sequential investments. Some regression models are tested for verifying the predictions. According to empirical results, three important results are found. First, initial entry mode affects the size expansion of the Korean parents. Second, the longer the duration of intial subsidiary in China, the more the sequential investment will be. Third, sequential investments are positively associated with the productivity of the Korean parents.

Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.

Dynamic Limit and Predatory Pricing Under Uncertainty (불확실성하(不確實性下)의 동태적(動態的) 진입제한(進入制限) 및 약탈가격(掠奪價格) 책정(策定))

  • Yoo, Yoon-ha
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.151-166
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    • 1991
  • In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.

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Strategic Antitrust Policy Promoting Mergers to Enhance Domestic Competitiveness (기업결합규제(企業結合規制)와 국제경쟁력(國際競爭力))

  • Seong, So-mi
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.153-172
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    • 1990
  • The present paper investigates the potential value of strategic antitrust policy in an oligopolistic international market. The market is characterized by a non-cooperative Cournot-Nash equilibrium and by asymmetry in costs among firms in the world market. The model is useful for two reasons. First, it is important in the context of policy-making to examine the conditions under which it may be beneficial to relax antitrust law to enhance competitiveness. Second, the explicit derivation of the level of cost-saving required for a gain in total domestic surplus provides an empirical rule for excluding industries that do not satisfy the requirements for a socially beneficial antitrust exemption. Results of the analysis include a criterion that tells how the cost-saving and concentration effects of a merger offset each other. The criterion is derived from fairly general assumptions on demand functions and is simple enough to be applied as a part of the merger guidelines. Another interesting policy implication of our analysis is that promoting mergers would not be a beneficial strategy in a net importing industry where cost-saving opportunities are thin. Cost-saving domestic mergers are more likely to increase national welfare in exporting industries. The best candidate industries for application of strategic antitrust policy are those with the following characteristics: (i) a large potential for efficiency enhancement; (ii) high market concentration at the world but not the domestic level; (iii) a high ratio of exports to imports. Recently, many policymakers and economists in Korea have also come to believe that the appropriate antitrust policy in an era of increased foreign competition may actually be to encourage rather than to prohibit domestic mergers. The Industry Development Act of 1986 and the proposed bill for Mergers and Conversions in the Financial Industry of 1990 reflect this changing perspective on antitrust policy. Antitrust laws may burden domestic firms in the sense that they have a more constrained strategy set. Expenditures to avoid antitrust attacks could also increase costs for domestic firms. But there is no clear evidence that the impact of antitrust policy is significant enough to harm the competitiveness of domestic firms. As a matter of fact, it is necessary for domestic financial institutions to become large in scale in this era of globalization. However, the absence of empirical evidence for efficiency enhancement from mergers suggests caution in the relaxation of antitrust standards.

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