• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2015.07a
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• pp.296-298
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• 2015

자율적인 행위자들로서 서로 영향을 끼치며 상호작용하는 선박들을 관제하는 VTSO는 불확실성으로 인한 위험을 극복하기 위해서는 적극적으로 상황을 파악하여 최선의 의사결정을 하여야 한다. VTSO는 항상 미래의 상황을 예측하면서 업무를 수행하여야 하는데 이때 VTSO에게 요구되는 것이 바로 시뮬레이션 능력이다. 시뮬레이션은 삽화기억의 구성적 성격을 활용하는 것으로서 삽화기억의 메커니즘은 미래 계획에도 그대로 활용된다. 본고에서는 반사실적 사고가 시뮬레이션에 어떻게 작동되는가를 살펴보고, VTS 상황에 이를 적용하여 보았다. 특히 반사실적 사고와 시뮬레이션을 통해서 VTSO가 업무역량을 향상시키기 위해서 어떻게 학습하여야 하는가를 고찰하였다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.303-311
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• 2023

Traditional mediation analysis, which relies on linear regression models, has faced criticism due to its limited suitability for cases involving different types of variables and complex covariates, such as interactions. This can result in unclear definitions of direct and indirect effects. As an alternative, causal mediation analysis using the counterfactual framework has been introduced to provide clearer definitions of direct and indirect effects while allowing for more flexible modeling methods. However, the conceptual understanding of this approach based on the counterfactual framework remains challenging for applied researchers. To address this issue, the present article was written to highlight and illustrate the definitions of causal estimands, including controlled direct effect, natural direct effect, and natural indirect effect, based on the key concept of nested counterfactuals. Furthermore, we recommend using 2 R packages, 'medflex' and 'mediation', to perform causal mediation analysis and provide public health examples. The article also offers caveats and guidelines for accurate interpretation of the results.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.41-60
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• 2022

Purpose - The policy implications of free trade agreements have traditionally been a matter of debate among economists. The official signing of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement provides economists with a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the FTA's policy effects. This article aims to more accurately understand the impact of Korea's FTA accession on the macro economy. Design/methodology - This study adopts the counterfactual method based on panel data to find common factors in the generation process of macro data to fit the counterfactual path, to accurately evaluate the effect of the macro policy. Findings - Our research results show that the signing of the Korea-China FTA has a relatively significant short-term positive effect on Korea's economic growth. On average, Korea's real GDP growth rate has increased by 2.1%. This study finds evidence in support of FTA signing not having a significant impact on Korea's GDP growth in the long run. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of the FTA on Korea's imports and exports and found that it had a significant positive impact in the short term, but the trade effect of the FTA is significantly affected by the external macro-environment. Originality/value - First, this study uses macro panel data at the national level to examine the impact of the Korea-China FTA on Korea, and more accurately describes the policy effect of the FTA. Second, our empirical results show that the Korea-China FTA policy impact is subject to occasional changes in the external environment, such as the geopolitical conflict (crisis) between Korea and China, and the US-China trade war. Finally, the analysis shows that the short-term effect of FTA is significant but the long-term is uncertain, which provides empirical evidence for the debate on whether joining FTA can promote national economic growth.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.171-190
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• 2002

Counterfactual thinking refers to a mental simulation of "What might have been," a cognitive process of once-possible-but-unrealized alternatives to facts, Counterfactuals have been reported to produce intensive emotional experiences, specifically regret. The present research reviewed and tried to integrate the previous inconsistent findings in the view of functional value of counterfactuals. Social psychologists proposed that counterfactuals could be categorized into upward(thoughts of better alternatives) versus downward(thoughts of worse alternatives) and additive versus subtractive. Counterfactual processes are more likely to occur following negative or unexpected rather than positive expected outcome, consistent with the minimization-mobilization hypothesis. Downward counterfactuals serve affective functions(to make one feel better) through contrast effects. Upward counterfactuals serve preparative functions(to prepare and improve performance in the future similar tasks) through causal inferences. Also, upward counterfactuals have been demonstrated in several studies to be followed by success-related attitudes and intentions and actual performance improvement. Furthermore, in terms of regulatory focus, downward counterfactuals were related with the prevention focus(to maintain the current status and upward counterfactuals were related with the promotion focus(to improve the current status). Those findings from numerous studies support that counterfactuals are functional to serve human ongoing motives. In conclusion, applicability and limitation of functional value of counterfactual thinking were discussed.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.25-33
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• 2018

Purpose - This study focused on the effect of counter-factual thinking on post-purchase behavior producing consumer regret at HMR selection and purchase. We have analyzed the factors that HMR production and distribution businesses should consider because distribution and marketing strategy reflecting consumers' demand. Research design, data, and methodology - For the purpose of carrying out this research, we conducted a direst structured questionnaire to students at 'J' college. A total of 237 valid questionnaires were collected for students and their parents at 'J' university. For the hypothesis test, exploratory factor analysis, t-test, regression and structure equation path analysis were performed. Results - The consumers who often resented HMR purchase did counter-factual thinking on post-purchase behavior were likely to do switching purchases. Counter-factual thinking on post-purchase behavior had a negative influence upon consumer's satisfaction with HMR safety and marketing characteristics. Conclusions - Consumers who had been satisfied to a certain degree might have cognitive dissonance of minor mistakes of HMR product were likely to have downward counter-factual thinking through contrast effects. Therefore, HMR producer and distribution businesses that had production, distribution and marketing strategy to satisfy consumers by raw material, freshness and safety were likely to switch to another product at one time mistake of selection, purchase and use.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.29-38
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• 2023

A single-learner model which integrates the user's positive and negative perceptions is proposed by augmenting counterfactual data to the interaction data between users and items, which are mainly used in collaborative filtering in this study. The proposed CausRec showed superior performance compared to the existing NCF model in terms of F1 value and AUC in experiments using three published datasets: MovieLens 100K, Amazon Gift Card, and Amazon Magazine. Compared to the existing NCF model, the F1 and AUC values of CausRec showed 1.2% and 2.6% performance improvement in MovieLens 100K data, and 2.2% and 10% improvement in Amazon Gift Card data, respectively. In particular, in experiments using Amazon Magazine data, F1 and AUC values were improved by 11.7% and 21.9%, respectively, showing a significant performance improvement effect. The performance of CausRec is improved because both positive and negative perceptions of the item were reflected in the recommendation at the same time. It is judged that the proposed method was able to improve the performance of the collaborative filtering because it can simultaneously alleviate the sparsity and imbalance problems of the interaction data.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.83-133
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• 2015

In this paper, I pose a problem for Hitchcock's arguments for two concepts of effects that are intended to explicate double causal effects, and put forth a theory that is intended not just to meet the problem but also to accommodate Hitchcock's theory and Eells' theory both. First, I introduce an example of dual causal effects, and examine the accounts of Otte(1985) and Eells(1987) on how to explicate the dual effects. I show that their accounts of the dual effects help us understand the problem of dual effects and see how different it is for Cartwright(1979, 1989, 1995), Eells(1991, 1995), and Hitchcock(2001a) to meet the problem. Second, I introduce two concepts of effects on Hitchcock(2001a), that is, net effect and component effect that are allegedly analogous to two effects of structural equation model. Third, I reveal the significance of homogeneous subpopulation and causal interaction regarding the problem of dual effects while examining Cartwright's theory and Elles' theory. Fourth, I critically examine the two concepts of effects on Hitchcock and argue against Hitchcock's criticism of Eells' theory. Fifth, I take a moderator variable of structural equation model and a moderator effect into the probabilistic theory of causality, and formally generalize causal interaction due to the dual effects in terms of disjunctive relation and counterfactual conditionals. I expect my account of disjunctive relation and counterfactual conditionals to contribute not just to several problems the received theories of causal modelling confront but also to the structural equation models many people exploit as a promising statistical methodology.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.329-347
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• 2012

Criminal media such as dramas and movies are growing in popularity. However, the effects of criminal media as well as its psychological mechanism are not clearly examined. Based on social learning theory (Bandura, 1978), past studies showed that arrest and punishment to the criminal in media have a suppressing effect. The present research examined the ironic possibility that media coverage of punishment could increase the audience's criminal intention and proposed the mediating role of counterfactual thinking in the effect. We hypothesized that when punishment was depicted as accidental rather than unavoidable in media coverage, perceived high mutability and counterfactuals focusing on the accidental factors could clarify the ways to commit the crime without being caught and subsequently increase future criminal intention. In this study, 95 college students read a story of plagiarizing either no, accidental, or inevitable punishment, and later asked to report their intention to plagiarize. An ANCOVA with participants' own history of plagiarism as a covariate found that the intention of plagiarism in future was significantly different. The results showed that the intention of plagiarism in the accidental punishment condition was higher than that in the inevitable punishment condition. Further, the intention of plagiarism in the accidental punishment condition was the same level with non-punishment condition. The findings suggest that whether criminals are caught or not is not enough to reduce criminal intentions of audience, but how criminals are caught matters.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.71-102
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• 2014

This paper examines the possibility of 'parallel reimportation', the reimportation of goods originally produced in the country and exported to another country by profit-pursuing arbitrageurs. The chance of parallel reimportation implies unusually high level of market power of domestic enterprises, and promoting parallel reimportation can be an effective welfare-enhancing, competition-generating policy for the situation. Motivated by the finding, this paper proposes a methodology to measure the welfare effects of parallel reimportation. Specifically, this paper makes use of a structural empirical model to estimate the demand and supply system of Korean automobile market for performing a counterfactual experiment to measure the welfare effects of the parallel reimportation. The results indicates that parallel reimportation can enhance social welfare considerably by increasing consumer surplus and government tax revenue altogether, though it reduces the producer surplus.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.41-54
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• 2013

R&D is inherently an uncertain endeavor, yet now more than ever those performing R&D with public funding are called upon to clarify the utility of their research. Calls for public accountability are mounting with the increase in constraints on government budgets due to the recent worldwide economic recession, in response to which both policymakers and researchers pay much more attention to rigorously assessing publicly funded R&D. A key issue complicating R&D evaluation in these circumstances is how to adequately account for the nature and degree of risk involved in a given R&D program or project. This study deliberates on certain issues involving the measurement of ex-ante risk in public R&D evaluation: (i) information asymmetry between R&D sponsors and performers, (ii) ambiguity in the measurement of returns in both prospective and retrospective evaluation, and (iii) the dilemma between measurement error and omitted variable bias for empirical estimation of R&D performance. The study then presents an analysis of hypothetical evaluation results that apply risk-relevant weights to the annual evaluation outcomes of South Korea's national R&D programs funded during 2006~2012. In this counterfactual re-evaluation of public R&D program performance, high-risk R&D programs turn out to receive higher evaluation than non-high-risk programs. The current study suggests that R&D evaluation ignoring ex-ante risk is not only conceptually invalid since R&D activities are intrinsically uncertain endeavors, but unfair as R&D performers are asked to be accountable for the results that were in fact out of their reach.